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Role of individual component failure in the performance of a 1-out-of-3 cold standby system: A Markov model approach

  • Layla Hindi EMAIL logo and Hussein K. Asker
Published/Copyright: February 28, 2024
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Open Engineering
From the journal Open Engineering Volume 14 Issue 1

Abstract

The current work assesses the availability and reliability of repairable 1-out-of-3 cold standby systems, undergoing switching failure, by the Markov models, where a finite set of differential equations govern the repairable system. A numerical approach based on KAOS programming in MATLAB is employed to solve the differential equations. Thus, numerical solutions for the time-dependent availability can then be obtained. The Laplace transform method is used for the reliability model to find the explicit form of the reliability function and the mean time to failure (MTTF) of the system. An availability estimation model for a 1-out-of-3 cold standby system is developed and the main electrical power network, local electricity generator, and domestic electricity generator are studied. Finally, the model is analyzed to illustrate the effect of both failures and repair rates as well as component capacity partitioning on system availability and MTTF.

Keywords: 1-out-of-3 cold standby system; Markov model; steady-state availability; MTTF; imperfect switching

1 Introduction

Electrical power plays an increasingly important role in all aspects of human life and in various electrical fields, system availability assessment has been extensively investigated. Particularly, a stable power supply system is essential and critical in many electrical energy systems, such as the main electrical power network (MEPN), and private generators. These generators are either local, set up to provide power for each block, or used in houses for domestic purpose. In modern technological life, the power supply system is widely applied in various industries. In modern technological life, a reliable power supply system is widely applied across various industries due to its high availability. The MEPN in Iraq is an important source of energy. Because of the increasingly long blackouts in MEPN, people resorted to using private generators. Availability depends on the types of breakdowns that should be included in the analysis [1]. One of well-known methods used to improve system reliability and availability is increasing the redundancy in the system [1]. Redundancy is an effective tool to improve the availability of a system by adding plug-ins [2]. The status of these plug-ins determines the type of the redundancy. It is categorized into three parts: active redundancy, standby redundancy, and active/standby redundancy [3]. Standby redundancy system is a configuration of units in the sense that this system fails when all the units fail. The word “standby” means that only one (or a given number) unit operates at a time, while the other operating units are on hold to be switched at the failure of operating unit [3], as shown in Figure 1. This system contains three units, A which is the initial (at time t = 0) operating unit, and B and C are the standby units while S is the switch of changeover device. Standby redundancy generally falls into three kinds: Unloaded (cold) standby, loaded (hot) standby, and light (warm) standby [2].

Figure 1 Standby system with three units.
Figure 1

Standby system with three units.

In the current study, the unloaded (cold) standby system is investigated. Hence, a cold standby system is examined in detail in the following sections in light of previous studies.

The cold standby system does not carry any load during the hold time before activation. Nonetheless, the redundant units are reserved in a dormant mode where the failure rates of cold standby components are usually zero before activation. On the other hand, the active units undergo a high failure rate of (λ) [3,4].

Asker examined a repairable standby system of two units with a changeover (or switch) that works with a standby (cold or partially loaded) unit either imperfectly or flawlessly. In light of the studied considerations, eight models for the standby system were obtained [3]. Wang and Kececioglu investigated the inherent availability, which is a significant performance index for a repairable system, and is usually estimated from the times-between-failures and the times-to-restore data [5]. Pérez-Ocón and Montoro-Cazorla discussed that the system comprises n units, the other units are either in repair, or in cold standby, or on hold for repair, only the working unit can fail [6]. Zhang and Wang investigated the two-component cold standby repairable system with one repairman and use of priority. It is assumed that component M after repair is not “as good as new” [7]. Zhang and Wang clarified that a deteriorating cold standby repairable system, consisting of two dissimilar components and one repairman, assumes that the successive working times form a decreasing geometric process while the consecutive repair times constitute an increasing geometric process [8]. Leung et al. presented the research on a cold standby repairable system consisting of two dissimilar components and one repairman. It is supposed that distributions of working time and distributions of repair time of the two components are both exponential, and component 1 receives priority for repairing [9]. Manglik and Ram explained the analysis of reliability of a four-components system arranged in series. Subsystems A, B, and C have a single unit whereas subsystem D has three units. In this system, one unit is active and the other two are cold standby arranged in a paralleled way [10]. Jia et al. studied a two-unit standby system without repair, to introduce the active switching policy in which the standby unit is activated at either a pre-fixed time or the failure time of active unit and considering the perfect and imperfect switching [11]. Grida et al. addressed the effect of plug-in economy of scale on achieving a high level of availability [4]. Peng et al. scrutinized a cold standby system that has two diverse components. The highly applicable phase-type (PH) distribution is employed to show the life and maintenance time of components of the system in a unified manner. A reliability of systems of the model is structured for wider applicability [12]. Akhavan Niaki and Yaghoubi studied the closed-form equations, derived using the Markov method, to calculate the reliability function and the mean time to failure (MTTF) of a 1-out-of-n cold standby system with non-repairable component under imperfect switching [13]. Danjuma et al. suggested the reliability of a system with three components, A, B, and C, joined in series in a parallel manner. The system was assessed through the Markov birth–death process, resulting in clear expressions for availability and system breakdown mean time. The results indicate that indicators of system effectiveness such as availability and mean time to system failure fall with failure rates and rise with repair rates [14]. Raghuvanshi et al. examined the cost-benefit analysis of a two identical unit cold standby system model using regenerative point technique with the basic tools of probabilistic argument and Laplace transform, and various important measures of system effectiveness useful to system designers and operations managers have been obtained [15]. Kaur and Bhardwaj presented the improvement in the system effectiveness of a two unit cold standby repairable systems by taking into account the failure possibility of a unit in standby mode. So, whenever an operating unit crosses a prefixed period (called maximum operation time) or the repair of the unit is not completed within a prefixed period (called maximum repair time), it is sent for preventive maintenance. The expressions for various explicit measures of system effectiveness are derived by adopting semi-Markov approach and regenerative point technique [16]. Hindi and Asker (2023) developed a 1-out-of-3 cold standby system with perfect switching. An availability estimation model for a repairable 1-out-of-3 cold standby system is developed and studied on the real industrial application of the MEPN, local electricity generator, and domestic electricity generator, where Markov model is employed for system reliability. The analysis of the model showed relatively high availability of electricity and that the MEPN cannot be dispensed with. A 1-out-of-3 system performed better and is more stable due to its higher level of capacity [17]. Based on the aforementioned studies, this work is complementary to the study by Hindi and Asker [17], and due to frequent outages of the MEPN in Iraq causing people to resort to local electricity generators besides domestic generators, this study investigates a 1-out-of-3 cold standby system model. It consists of three components and each component expresses the following: The first component represents the MEPN, the second component represents the local generator, and the third component represents the domestic generator. A 1-out-of-3 cold standby system denotes a prioritization hierarchy in the usage and maintenance of its components under specific assumptions: cold standby mode, imperfect switching, and a backup that is itself a 1-out-of-3 system. The whole process is shown and explained with the help of a Markov transition chart in Figure 2.

Figure 2 The transition of the 1-out-of-3 cold standby system from one state to another is succinctly represented through a Markov transition diagram. The detailed transitions and their corresponding probabilities can be found in Table 1, which provides the transition matrix for the system.
Figure 2

The transition of the 1-out-of-3 cold standby system from one state to another is succinctly represented through a Markov transition diagram. The detailed transitions and their corresponding probabilities can be found in Table 1, which provides the transition matrix for the system.

The remainder of this study is structured as follows: Section 2 provides a comprehensive description of the system under consideration, and describes system state by using the transition matrix. Section 3 presents the description of availability of two cold standby repairable systems and calculates the stationary availability of system. Section 4 presents the description of MTTF of cold standby system and calculates the MTTF of the system. Section 5 presents the numerical results of evaluation and analysis of the impact of diverse reliability metrics on the performance of the 1-out-of-3 cold standby system. Section 6 gives the discussion and conclusion, and the algorithm of the KAOS programming technique using MATLAB is also given.

2 System description and assumptions

Assume that the system under discussion is a 1-out-of-3 cold standby system with imperfect switching, which consists of three components: A is the initial operational component, and B and C are the two cold standby components. As shown, component A is the MEPN, component B is the local power generator, and component C is the household electricity generator. The assumptions are detailed as follows:

  1. The switch is imperfect and maintainable.

  2. Switch has priority in maintenance.

  3. Component A is priority in use and maintenance, then component B and component C, respectively.

  4. Each of the switch and component has a constant operating failure rate (λ), and a constant repair rate (µ).

  5. The system remains in working condition (running) even when the switch fails as long as component A, B, or C is in the state of operation, i.e., not failing.

  6. The system fails in two cases:

  1. In the case of the failure of the switch with the failure of the instantaneous operating component (A or B or C).

  2. The failure of all components (A, B, and C).

Table 1

Transition probability matrix

P 1 P 2 P 3 P 4 P 5 P 6 P 7 P 8 P 9 P 10 P 11 P 12 P 13 P 14 P 15 P 16 P 17 P 18 P 19
P 1 −(λ A +λ S) λ A 0 λ S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 2 μ A −(μ A +λ S +λ B) λ B 0 λ S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 3 0 0 −(λ S +λ C +μ A) 0 0 λ S λ C 0 0 0 μ A 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 4 μ S 0 0 −(μ S +λ A) 0 0 0 λ A 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 5 0 μ S 0 0 −(μ S +λ B) 0 0 0 λ B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 6 0 0 μ S 0 0 −(μ S +λ C) 0 0 0 λ C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 −μ A 0 0 0 0 0 μ A 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 8 0 μ S 0 0 0 0 0 −μ S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 9 0 0 μ S 0 0 0 0 0 −μ S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 μ S 0 0 −μ S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 11 μ B 0 λ A 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 −(μ B +λ A +λ S) λ S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 λ A 0 μ S −(λ A +μ S) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 λ A 0 0 0 0 0 −(λ A +λ S +μ B) λ S μ B 0 0 0 0
P 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 λ A 0 0 μ S −(λ A +μ S) 0 0 0 0 0
P 15 μ C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 −(μ C +λ S +λ A) λ S 0 λ A 0
P 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 μ S −(μ S +λ A) λ A 0 0
P 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 −μ S μ S 0
P 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 λ B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 μ A 0 0 −(λ B +λ S +μ A) λ S
P 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 λ B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 μ S −(λ B +μ S)

Utilizing the specific transition rates presented in Figure 2 and Table 1, we can formulate the subsequent equations representing the state probabilities of the 1-out-of-3 cold standby system.

(1) d p 1 ( t ) d t = − 2 λ p 1 + μ p 2 + μ p 4 + μ p 11 + μ p 15 ,

(2) d p 2 ( t ) d t = λ p 1 − ( 2 λ + μ ) p 2 + μ p 5 + μ p 8 ,

(3) d p 3 ( t ) d t = λ p 2 − ( 2 λ + μ ) p 3 + μ p 6 + μ p 9 + λ p 11 ,

(4) d p 4 ( t ) d t = λ p 1 − ( λ + μ ) p 4 ,

(5) d p 5 ( t ) d t = λ p 2 − ( λ + μ ) p 5 ,

(6) d p 6 ( t ) d t = λ p 3 − ( λ + μ ) p 6 ,

(7) d p 7 ( t ) d t = λ p 3 − μ p 7 + μ p 10 + λ p 13 + λ p 18 ,

(8) d p 8 ( t ) d t = λ p 4 − μ p 8 ,

(9) d p 9 ( t ) d t = λ p 5 − μ p 9 + λ p 12 ,

(10) d p 10 ( t ) d t = λ p 6 − μ p 10 + λ p 14 + λ p 19 ,

(11) d p 11 ( t ) d t = μ p 3 − ( 2 λ + μ ) p 11 + μ p 12 ,

(12) d p 12 ( t ) d t = λ p 11 − ( λ + μ ) p 12 ,

(13) d p 13 ( t ) d t = μ p 7 − ( 2 λ + μ ) p 13 + μ p 14 ,

(14) d p 14 ( t ) d t = λ p 13 − ( λ + μ ) p 14 ,

(15) d p 15 ( t ) d t = μ p 13 − ( 2 λ + μ ) p 15 + μ p 16 + μ p 18 ,

(16) d p 16 ( t ) d t = λ p 15 − ( λ + μ ) p 16 ,

(17) d p 17 ( t ) d t = λ p 16 − μ p 17 ,

(18) d p 18 ( t ) d t = λ p 15 + μ p 17 − ( 2 λ + μ ) p 18 + μ p 19 ,

(19) d p 19 ( t ) d t = λ p 18 − ( λ + μ ) p 19 .

In a steady-state condition, the time derivatives of the state probabilities are expressed as follows:

(20) ∑ i = 1 19 p i ( t ) = 1 ,

and let F = 12λ 6 + 26λ 5 μ + 27λ 4 μ 2 + 20λ 3 μ 3 + 12λ 2 μ 4 + 5λμ 5 + μ 6,

So

(21) p 1 = λ 3 μ 3 + 3 λ 2 μ 4 + 3 λ μ 5 + μ 6 F ,

(22) p 2 = 2 λ 5 μ 3 + 7 λ 4 μ 4 + 9 λ 3 μ 5 + 5 λ 2 μ 6 + λ μ 7 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) F ,

and let E = 4λ 4 + 6λ 3 μ + 5λ 2 μ 2 + 3λμ 3 + μ 4

(23) p 3 = 4 λ 7 μ 3 + 16 λ 6 μ 4 + 25 λ 5 μ 5 + 19 λ 4 μ 6 + 7 λ 3 μ 7 + λ 2 μ 8 EF ,

(24) p 4 = λ 3 μ 3 + 2 λ 2 μ 4 + λ μ 5 F ,

(25) p 5 = 2 λ 5 μ 3 + 5 λ 4 μ 4 + 4 λ 3 μ 5 + λ 2 μ 6 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) F ,

(26) p 6 = 4 λ 7 μ 3 + 12 λ 6 μ 4 + 13 λ 5 μ 5 + 6 λ 4 μ 6 + λ 3 μ 7 EF ,

(27) p 7 = ( 2 λ + μ ) ( 4 λ 5 + 4 λ 4 μ + λ 3 μ 2 ) F ,

(28) p 8 = 4 λ 4 μ 2 + 2 λ 3 μ 3 + λ 2 μ 4 F ,

(29) p 9 = 4 λ 8 μ 2 + 14 λ 7 μ 3 + 20 λ 6 μ 4 + 15 λ 5 μ 5 + 6 λ 4 μ 6 + λ 3 μ 7 EF ,

(30) p 10 = 4 λ 6 + 4 λ 5 μ + λ 4 μ 2 F ,

(31) p 11 = 4 λ 8 μ 4 + 20 λ 7 μ 5 + 41 λ 6 μ 6 + 44 λ 5 μ 7 + 26 λ 4 μ 8 + 8 λ 3 μ 9 + λ 2 μ 10 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) EF ,

(32) p 12 = 4 λ 8 μ 4 + 16 λ 7 μ 5 + 25 λ 6 μ 6 + 19 λ 5 μ 7 + 7 λ 4 μ 8 + λ 3 μ 9 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) EF ,

(33) p 13 = 8 λ 7 μ + 20 λ 6 μ 2 + 18 λ 5 μ 3 + 7 λ 4 μ 4 + λ 3 μ 5 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) F ,

(34) p 14 = 8 λ 7 μ + 12 λ 6 μ 2 + 6 λ 5 μ 3 + λ 4 μ 4 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) F ,

and let M = 48 λ 10 + 17 6 λ 9 μ + 324 λ 8 μ 2 + 408 λ 7 μ 3 + 393 λ 6 μ 4 + 299 λ 5 μ 5 + 181 λ 4 μ 6 + 87 λ 3 μ 7 + 32 λ 2 μ 8 + 8 λ μ 9 + μ 10 ,

(35) p 15 = 8 λ 8 μ 2 + 28 λ 87 μ 3 + 38 λ 6 μ 4 + 25 λ 5 μ 5 + 8 λ 4 μ 6 + λ 3 μ 7 M ,

(36) p 16 = λ 4 ( λ + μ ) ( 2 λ + μ ) ( 4 λ 2 μ 2 + 4 λ μ 3 + μ 4 ) M ,

(37) p 17 = 8 λ 9 μ + 20 λ 8 μ 2 + 18 λ 7 μ 3 + 7 λ 6 μ 4 + λ 5 μ 5 M ,

and let N = 96λ 12 + 448λ 11 μ + 1,048λ 10 μ 2 + 1,640λ 9 μ 3 + 1,926λ 8 μ 4 + 1,729λ 7 μ 5 + 1,353λ 6 μ 6 + 835λ 5 μ 7 + 491λ 4 μ 8 + 167λ 3 μ 9 + 50λ 2 μ 10 + 10λμ 11 + μ 12

(38) p 18 = [ λ 4 μ ( λ + μ ) ( 4 λ 2 + 4 λ μ + μ 2 ) ( 4 λ 3 μ + 8 λ 2 μ 2 + 5 λ μ 3 + μ 4 ) ] M ,

(39) p 19 = [ λ 5 μ ( λ + μ ) ( λ 2 + 2 λ μ ) ( 2 λ + μ ) ( 4 λ 2 + 8 λ μ + μ 2 ) ] M .

3 Availability of two cold standby repairable systems

Availability is the probability that the system is operating at a specified time (t), which is always associated with the concept of maintainability. Availability depends on both failures and relies on repair rates [10].

3.1 Calculation of the stationary availability of system

The system is in operation when it is in either the state p 1 , p 2 , p 3 , p 4 , p 5 , p 6 , p 11 , p 12 , p 13 , p 14 , p 15 , p 16 , p 18 , and p 19 . Therefore, the general form to calculate the stationary availability of system is as follows:

(40) V AAIM = [ p 1 ( ∞ ) + p 2 ( ∞ ) + p 3 ( ∞ ) + p 4 ( ∞ ) + p 5 ( ∞ ) + p 6 ( ∞ ) + p 11 ( ∞ ) + p 12 ( ∞ ) + p 13 ( ∞ ) + p 14 ( ∞ ) + p 15 ( ∞ ) + p 16 ( ∞ ) + p 18 ( ∞ ) + p 19 ( ∞ ) ] .

Using equations ((21)–(26), (31)–(36), (38), and (39), equation (40) can be rewritten as follows:

V AAIM = λ 3 μ 3 + 3 λ 2 μ 4 + 3 λ μ 5 + μ 6 F + 2 λ 5 μ 3 + 7 λ 4 μ 4 + 9 λ 3 μ 5 + 5 λ 2 μ 6 + λ μ 7 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) F + 4 λ 7 μ 3 + 16 λ 6 μ 4 + 25 λ 5 μ 5 + 19 λ 4 μ 6 + 7 λ 3 μ 7 + λ 2 μ 8 EF + λ 3 μ 3 + 2 λ 2 μ 4 + λ μ 5 F + 2 λ 5 μ 3 + 5 λ 4 μ 4 + 4 λ 3 μ 5 + λ 2 μ 6 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) F + 4 λ 7 μ 3 + 12 λ 6 μ 4 + 13 λ 5 μ 5 + 6 λ 4 μ 6 + λ 3 μ 7 EF + 4 λ 8 μ 4 + 20 λ 7 μ 5 + 41 λ 6 μ 6 + 44 λ 5 μ 7 + 26 λ 4 μ 8 + 8 λ 3 μ 9 + λ 2 μ 10 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) EF + 4 λ 8 μ 4 + 16 λ 7 μ 5 + 25 λ 6 μ 6 + 19 λ 5 μ 7 + 7 λ 4 μ 8 + λ 3 μ 9 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) EF + 8 λ 7 μ + 20 λ 6 μ 2 + 18 λ 5 μ 3 + 7 λ 4 μ 4 + λ 3 μ 5 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) F + 8 λ 7 μ + 12 λ 6 μ 2 + 6 λ 5 μ 3 + λ 4 μ 4 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) F + 8 λ 8 μ 2 + 28 λ 87 μ 3 + 38 λ 6 μ 4 + 25 λ 5 μ 5 + 8 λ 4 μ 6 + λ 3 μ 7 M + ( λ 4 ( λ + μ ) ( 2 λ + μ ) ( 4 λ 2 μ 2 + 4 λ μ 3 + μ 4 ) M + [ λ 4 μ ( λ + μ ) ( 4 λ 2 + 4 λ μ + μ 2 ) ( 4 λ 3 μ + 8 λ 2 μ 2 + 5 λ μ 3 + μ 4 ) ] M + [ λ 5 μ ( λ + μ ) ( λ 2 + 2 λ μ ) ( 2 λ + μ ) ( 4 λ 2 + 8 λ μ + μ 2 ) ] M .

So,

(41) V AAIM = 8 λ 5 μ + 16 λ 4 μ 2 + 16 λ 3 μ 3 + 11 λ 2 μ 4 + 5 λ μ 2 + μ 6 12 λ 6 + 2 6 λ 5 μ + 27 λ 4 μ 2 + 20 λ 3 μ 3 + 12 λ 2 μ 4 + 5 λ μ 5 + μ 6 .

4 System MTTF

MTTF is the predicted elapsed time between inherent failures of a system during operation. MTTF can be calculated as the average time between failures of a system [10]. According to Markov model and a property of the Laplace transform, the MTTF of the system is given by

MTTF = E ( t ) = ∫ 0 ∞ R ( t ) ( t ) d t .

According to Asker ([3], p. 13), the MTTF of the system can be determined by considering the failed state of the system state p 7 , p 8 , p 9 , p 10 , and p 17 as an absorbing state. Now suppose that the initial state at t = 0 is state 0, by deleting the row and column of the transition rate matrix corresponding to the absorbing states p 7 , p 8 , p 9 , p 10 , and p 17 and taking Laplace transitions (with s = 0) of Transition Probability Matrix in Table 1, we obtain transition probability matrix MTTF of the system given in Table 2.

Table 2

Transition probability matrix MTTF of the system

P 1 P 2 P 3 P 4 P 5 P 6 P 7 P 8 P 9 P 10 P 11 P 12 P 13 P 14
P 1 − ( λ A + λ S ) λ A 0 λ S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 2 μ A − ( μ A + λ S + λ B ) λ B 0 λ S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 3 0 0 − ( λ S + λ C + μ A ) 0 0 λ S μ A 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 4 μ S 0 0 − ( μ S + λ A ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 5 0 μ S 0 0 − ( μ S + λ B ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 6 0 0 μ S 0 0 − ( μ S + λ C ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 7 μ B 0 λ A 0 0 0 − ( μ B + λ A + λ S ) λ S 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 μ S − ( λ A + μ S ) 0 0 0 0 0 0
P 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 − ( λ A + λ S + μ B ) λ S μ B 0 0 0
P 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 μ S − ( λ A + μ S ) 0 0 0 0
P 11 μ C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 − ( μ C + λ S + λ A ) λ S λ A 0
P 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 μ S − ( μ S + λ A ) 0 0
P 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 μ A 0 − ( λ B + μ A + λ S ) λ S
P 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 μ S − ( λ B + μ S )

By using the appropriate transition rates depicted in Table 2, we can construct the following equations as the state probabilities MTTF of the system.

(42) d p 1 ( t ) dt = − 2 λ p 1 + μ p 2 + μ p 4 + μ p 7 + μ p 11 ,

(43) d p 2 ( t ) d t = λ p 1 − ( 2 λ + μ ) p 2 + μ p 5 ,

(44) d p 3 ( t ) d t = λ p 2 − ( 2 λ + μ ) p 3 + μ p 6 + λ p 7 ,

(45) d p 4 ( t ) d t = λ p 1 − ( λ + μ ) p 4 ,

(46) d p 5 ( t ) d t = λ p 2 − ( λ + μ ) p 5 ,

(47) d p 6 ( t ) d t = λ p 3 − ( λ + μ ) p 6 ,

(48) d p 7 ( t ) d t = μ p 3 − ( 2 λ + μ ) p 7 + μ p 8 ,

(49) d p 8 ( t ) d t = λ p 7 − ( λ + μ ) p 8 ,

(50) d p 9 ( t ) d t = − ( 2 λ + μ ) p 9 + μ p 10 ,

(51) d p 10 ( t ) d t = λ p 9 − ( λ + μ ) p 10 ,

(52) d p 11 ( t ) d t = μ p 9 − ( 2 λ + μ ) p 11 + μ p 12 + μ p 13 ,

(53) d p 12 ( t ) d t = λ p 11 − ( λ + μ ) p 12 ,

(54) d p 13 ( t ) d t = λ p 11 − ( 2 λ + μ ) p 13 + μ p 14 ,

(55) d p 14 ( t ) d t = λ p 13 − ( λ + μ ) p 14 ,

The solution is

K = 8λ 4 + 16λ 3 μ + 13λ 2 μ 2 + 5λμ 3 + μ 4.

So,

(56) p 1 = 4 μ 5 + 11 λ 4 μ + 13 λ 3 μ 2 + 9 λ 2 μ 3 + 4 λ μ 4 + μ 5 λ 2 K ,

(57) p 2 = 4 λ 6 + 15 λ 2 μ + 24 λ 4 μ 2 + 22 λ 3 μ 3 + 13 λ 2 μ 4 + 5 λ μ 5 + μ 6 λ ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) K ,

(58) p 3 = λ 3 + 3 λ 2 μ + 3 λ μ 2 + μ 3 K ,

(59) p 4 = 4 λ 4 + 7 λ 3 μ + 6 λ 2 μ 2 + 3 λ μ 3 + μ 4 λ K ,

(60) p 5 = ( λ + μ ) ( 4 λ 4 + 7 λ 3 μ + 6 λ 2 μ 2 + 3 λ μ 3 + μ 4 ) ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) K ,

(61) p 6 = λ ( λ + μ ) 2 K ,

(62) p 7 = μ ( λ + μ ) 4 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) K ,

(63) p 8 = λ μ ( λ + μ ) 3 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) K ,

(64) p 9 = p 10 = p 11 = p 12 = p 13 = p 14 = 0 .

4.1 Calculation of the MTTFIM of system

Taking repairs in the states p 1 , p 2 , p 3 , p 4 , p 5 , p 6 , p 7 , p 8 , p 9 , p 10 , p 11 , p 12 , p 13 , and p 14 , the general form to calculate the MTTF of system is

(65) MTTF IM = [ p 1 ( ∞ ) + p 2 ( ∞ ) + p 3 ( ∞ ) + p 4 ( ∞ ) + p 5 ( ∞ ) + p 6 ( ∞ ) + p 7 ( ∞ ) + p 8 ( ∞ ) + p 9 ( ∞ ) + p 10 ( ∞ ) + p 11 ( ∞ ) + p 12 ( ∞ ) + p 13 ( ∞ ) + p 14 ( ∞ ) ] .

Using equations (56)–(64), equation (65) can be rewritten as follows:

(66) MTTF IM = 4 μ 5 + 11 λ 4 μ + 13 λ 3 μ 2 + 9 λ 2 μ 3 + 4 λ μ 4 + μ 5 λ 2 K + 4 λ 6 + 15 λ 2 μ + 24 λ 4 μ 2 + 22 λ 3 μ 3 + 13 λ 2 μ 4 + 5 λ μ 5 + μ 6 λ ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) K + λ 3 + 3 λ 2 μ + 3 λ μ 2 + μ 3 K , + 4 λ 4 + 7 λ 3 μ + 6 λ 2 μ 2 + 3 λ μ 3 + μ 4 λ K + ( λ + μ ) ( 4 λ 4 + 7 λ 3 μ + 6 λ 2 μ 2 + 3 λ μ 3 + μ 4 ) ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) K + λ ( λ + μ ) 2 K + μ ( λ + μ ) 4 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) K + λ μ ( λ + μ ) 3 ( 2 λ 2 + 2 λ μ + μ 2 ) K + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 .

So, MTTF IM = 14 λ 5 + 33 λ 4 μ + 33 λ 3 μ 2 + 18 λ 2 μ 3 + 6 λ μ 4 + μ 5 λ 2 K .

5 Numerical and effect results

5.1 Effect of failure rate (λ)

Figure 3 and Table 3 present the calculation and analyses of the effect of the failure rate λ on the availability of 1-out-of-3 cold standby system taking the values of different λ from 0.00 to 1 and when the repair rate is constant, its value is 0.8 and compensated in equation (41).

Figure 3 Effective steady state availability with respective failure rate.
Figure 3

Effective steady state availability with respective failure rate.

Table 3

Calculation of the availability values

Let μ = 0.8
λ values V AAIN values λ values V AAIN values
λ 1 0.00 V AAIN 1 1 λ 11 0.50 V AAIN 11 0.73929
λ 2 0.05 V AAIN 2 0.99629 λ 12 0.55 V AAIN 12 0.70389
λ 3 0.10 V AAIN 3 0.98563 λ 13 0.60 V AAIN 13 0.67005
λ 4 0.15 V AAIN 4 0.96847 λ 14 0.65 V AAIN 14 0.638
λ 5 0.20 V AAIN 5 0.94531 λ 15 0.70 V AAIN 15 0.60788
λ 6 0.25 V AAIN 6 0.91698 λ 16 0.75 V AAIN 16 0.57969
λ 7 0.30 V AAIN 7 0.8846 λ 17 0.80 V AAIN 17 0.5534
λ 8 0.35 V AAIN 8 0.84946 λ 18 0.85 V AAIN 18 0.52892
λ 9 0.40 V AAIN 9 0.81283 λ 19 0.90 V AAIN 19 0.50616
λ 10 0.45 V AAIN 10 0.77582 λ 20 0.95 V AAIN 20 0.48499
λ 21 1 V AAIN 21 0.4653

Figure 3 shows these values.

As for the effect of failure rate (λ) on MTTF,

Figure 4 and Table 4 presents the calculation and analyses of the effect of the failure rate λ on MTTF of the 1-out-of-3 cold standby system taking the values of different λ from 0.05 to 1 and when the repair rate is constant, its value is 0.8 and compensated in equation (66).

Figure 4 Effective MTTF with respect failure rate.
Figure 4

Effective MTTF with respect failure rate.

Table 4

Calculation of MTTF values

Let μ = 0.8
λ values MTTF values λ values MTTF values
λ 1 0.05 MTTF 1 340.262030175877 λ 11 0.55 MTTF 11 5.09986079943651
λ 2 0.10 MTTF 2 90.4380902413431 λ 12 0.60 MTTF 12 4.50931348625346
λ 3 0.15 MTTF 3 42.7730222805851 λ 13 0.65 MTTF 13 4.03523027724139
λ 4 0.20 MTTF 4 25.6191588785047 λ 14 0.70 MTTF 14 3.64726376030491
λ 5 0.25 MTTF 5 17.4573284837716 λ 15 0.75 MTTF 15 3.32454928750521
λ 6 0.30 MTTF 6 12.8975046597436 λ 16 0.80 MTTF 16 3.05232558139535
λ 7 0.35 MTTF 7 10.0676107965943 λ 17 0.85 MTTF 17 2.81988792335951
λ 8 0.40 MTTF 8 8.17567567567567 λ 18 0.90 MTTF 18 2.61930402934919
λ 9 0.45 MTTF 9 6.83870111326861 λ 19 0.95 MTTF 19 2.44458332632915
λ 10 0.50 MTTF 10 5.85251465176503 λ 20 1 MTTF 20 2.29112485041883

The following diagram shows these values.

5.1 Effect of repair rate (μ)

Figure 5 and Table 5 present the calculation and analyses of the effect of the repair rate μ on the availability of 1-out-of-3 cold standby system taking the values of different μ from 0.00 to 1, and when the failure rate λ is constant, its value is 0.8 and compensated in equation (41).

Figure 5 The steady state availability with respect to components setting up and repair rate.
Figure 5

The steady state availability with respect to components setting up and repair rate.

Table 5

Calculation of the availability

Let λ = 0.8
μ values V AAIN values μ values V AAIN values
μ 1 0.00 V AAIN 1 0 μ 11 0.50 V AAIN 11 0.37725
μ 2 0.05 V AAIN 2 0.041249 µ 12 0.55 V AAIN 12 0.40981
µ 3 0.10 V AAIN 3 0.081716 µ 13 0.60 V AAIN 13 0.44114
µ 4 0.15 V AAIN 4 0.12145 µ 14 0.65 V AAIN 14 0.47121
µ 5 0.20 V AAIN 5 0.16048 µ 15 0.70 V AAIN 15 0.49995
µ 6 0.25 V AAIN 6 0.19877 µ 16 0.75 V AAIN 16 0.52735
µ 7 0.30 V AAIN 7 0.23629 µ 17 0.80 V AAIN 17 0.5534
µ 8 0.35 V AAIN 8 0.27298 µ 18 0.85 V AAIN 18 0.57809
µ 9 0.40 V AAIN 9 0.30875 µ 19 0.90 V AAIN 19 0.60145
µ 10 0.45 V AAIN 10 0.34354 µ 20 0.95 V AAIN 20 0.62349
µ 21 1 V AAIN 21 0.64426

These values are displayed in Figure 5.

As for the effect of repair rate (μ) on MTTF,

Figure 6 and Table 6 present the calculation and analyses of the effect of the repair rate (μ) on the MTTF of the 1-out-of-3 cold standby system taking the values of different μ from 0.05 to 1, and when the failure rate λ is constant, its value is (0.8) and compensated in equation (66).

Figure 6 Effect of MTTF with respect to repair rate.
Figure 6

Effect of MTTF with respect to repair rate.

Table 6

Calculation of MTTF

Let λ = 0.8
µ values MTTF values µ values MTTF values
µ 1 0.05 MTTF 1 2.23650332689685 µ 11 0.55 MTTF 11 2.76131652831583
µ 2 0.10 MTTF 2 2.2859382843688 µ 12 0.60 MTTF 12 2.81800045973992
µ 3 0.15 MTTF 3 2.33590782015804 µ 13 0.65 MTTF 13 2.87545911642228
µ 4 0.20 MTTF 4 2.38649272947592 µ 14 0.70 MTTF 14 2.93367795967374
µ 5 0.25 MTTF 5 2.437755027395 µ 15 0.75 MTTF 15 2.99263983465819
µ 6 0.30 MTTF 6 2.48974086266725 µ 16 0.80 MTTF 16 3.05232558139535
µ 7 0.35 MTTF 7 2.54248303025291 µ 17 0.85 MTTF 17 3.11271454943734
µ 8 0.40 MTTF 8 2.59600313479624 µ 18 0.90 MTTF 18 3.17378502950732
µ 9 0.45 MTTF 9 2.65031345115946 µ 19 0.95 MTTF 19 3.23551461370671
µ 10 0.50 MTTF 10 2.70541852216109 µ 20 1 MTTF 20 3.29788049441683

The following diagram shows these values,

5.2 Effect of Γ

Term (Γ) is defined as the ratio of repair rate to component failure rate and is used to analyze the impact of component capacity partitioning on system availability: Γ = μ/λ

Hence, we will calculate and analyze the effect of component capacity partitioning on system availability1-out-of-3 cold standby system. From equation (41)

(67) V AAIN = Γ + 16 Γ 2 + 16 Γ 3 + 11 Γ 4 + 5 Γ 2 + Γ 6 12 + 26 Γ + 27 Γ 2 + 20 Γ 3 + 12 Γ 4 + 5 Γ 2 + Γ 6 .

Take the values of different Γ from 0.00 to 2 and substitute in equation (67). Table 7 and Figure 7 show the availability values.

Table 7

Calculation of the availability

Γ values V AAIN values Γ values V AAIN values
Γ1 0.00 V AAIN 1 0 Γ21 1.00 V AAIN 21 0.5534
Γ2 0.05 V AAIN 2 0.033064 Γ22 1.05 V AAIN 22 0.5733
Γ3 0.10 V AAIN 3 0.065619 Γ23 1.10 V AAIN 23 0.5923
Γ4 0.15 V AAIN 4 0.097697 Γ24 1.15 V AAIN 24 0.6104
Γ5 0.20 V AAIN 5 0.1293 Γ25 1.20 V AAIN 25 0.6277
Γ6 0.25 V AAIN 6 0.1605 Γ26 1.25 V AAIN 26 0.6443
Γ7 0.30 V AAIN 7 0.1912 Γ27 1.30 V AAIN 27 0.6600
Γ8 0.35 V AAIN 8 0.2214 Γ28 1.35 V AAIN 28 0.6750
Γ9 0.40 V AAIN 9 0.2511 Γ29 1.40 V AAIN 29 0.6892
Γ10 0.45 V AAIN 10 0.2802 Γ30 1.45 V AAIN 30 0.7027
Γ11 0.50 V AAIN 11 0.3088 Γ31 1.50 V AAIN 31 0.7155
Γ12 0.55 V AAIN 12 0.3367 Γ32 1.55 V AAIN 32 0.7277
Γ13 0.60 V AAIN 13 0.3639 Γ33 1.60 V AAIN 33 0.7393
Γ14 0.65 V AAIN 14 0.3904 Γ34 1.65 V AAIN 34 0.7503
Γ15 0.70 V AAIN 15 0.4162 Γ35 1.70 V AAIN 35 0.7607
Γ16 0.75 V AAIN 16 0.4411 Γ36 1.75 V AAIN 36 0.7706
Γ17 0.80 V AAIN 17 0.4653 Γ37 1.80 V AAIN 37 0.7799
Γ18 0.85 V AAIN 18 0.4886 Γ38 1.85 V AAIN 38 0.7888
Γ19 0.90 V AAIN 19 0.5111 Γ39 1.90 V AAIN 39 0.7972
Γ20 0.95 V AAIN 20 0.5327 Γ40 1.95 V AAIN 40 0.8052
Γ41 2 V AAIN 41 0.8128
Figure 7 The steady state availability with respect to components setting up and Γ.
Figure 7

The steady state availability with respect to components setting up and Γ.

Figure 7 shows these values.

6 Discussion and conclusion

In the present research, we have evaluated various reliability indices such as availability, MTTF, etc., for the 1-out-of-3 cold standby system considered and studied the MEPN, local electricity generator, and domestic electricity generator, employing Markov process. From the results and analysis of the designed system, one can conclude the following:

  1. Analysis of Table 3 gives us the idea of the availability of the stated system with respect to failure rate λ, when the repair rate μ is constant. Critical examination of corresponding Figure 3 yields that the values of the availability decreases approximately in an even manner with the increment in failure rate λ and the impact of failure rates on the system is greater.

  2. Table 4 displays the MTTF of the mentioned system in relation to different failure rates, with a constant repair rate µ. Upon scrutinizing Figure 4, we observed that MTTF diminishes as failure rates increase, indicating again that the system’s performance is significantly impacted by the changes in failure rates.

  3. Table 5 outlines the system’s availability with respect to the repair rate (µ) while keeping the failure rate (λ) constant. As demonstrated by Figure 5 and Table 5, the system’s availability tends to increase as the repair rate rises.

  4. In Table 6, the MTTF of the specified system is evaluated with respect to various repair rates (µ), with a constant failure rate. A critical examination of Figure 6 shows that the MTTF increases with the increment in repair rate.

  5. Finally, Table 7 and Figure 7 represent the term Γ, defined as the ratio of the repair rate to the component failure rate. It is observable that increasing Γ enhances the effect of component capacity partitioning on the availability of the 1-out-of-3 cold standby system, thereby improving the system’s availability and stability.

  1. Conflict of interest: Authors state no conflict of interest.

  2. Data availability statement: Data sharing does not apply to this article as no datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.

Appendix

MATLAB (R2015a) was used in the current study to calculate and examine the results of all the formulas mentioned above. Moreover, the R2015a software was used to draw the diagrams and representation through the algorithm described below.

Algorithm: To calculate and examine the results of all the formulas mentioned above.

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Received: 2023-06-10
Revised: 2023-08-02
Accepted: 2023-08-08
Published Online: 2024-02-28

© 2024 the author(s), published by De Gruyter

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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  198. Special Issue: IETAS 2024 - Part I
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  201. Improving multi-object detection and tracking with deep learning, DeepSORT, and frame cancellation techniques
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  206. Special Issue: 51st KKBN - Part I
  207. Evaluation of static bending caused damage of glass-fiber composite structure using terahertz inspection
https://doi.org/10.1515/eng-2022-0517
Keywords for this article
1-out-of-3 cold standby system; Markov model; steady-state availability; MTTF; imperfect switching
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