Identification and driving mechanism of land use conflict in China’s South-North transition zone: A case study of Huaihe River Basin

2.1 Study area

The Huaihe River Basin, situated in the transitional zone between northern and southern China, spans five provinces (Henan, Shandong, Hubei, Anhui, and Jiangsu) and covers approximately 330,000 km². Geographically, it lies between 111°55′–121°25′E and 30°55′–36°36′N, bounded by the Qinling–Huaihe Line to the north and the Yangtze River to the south [33]. This region exhibits distinct climatic and ecological gradients, transitioning from a warm-temperate semi-humid climate in the north to a subtropical monsoon climate in the south, fostering diverse land use patterns and resource utilization modes. As a critical corridor for economic and cultural exchanges between northern and southern China, the basin hosts significant socioeconomic activities. The gross domestic product (GDP) distribution (Figure 1) in the Huaihe River Basin reveals significant economic disparities, with higher values concentrated in the eastern and central regions, particularly in cities like Nanjing, Hefei, and Xuzhou. These areas are characterized by rapid economic growth and urbanization, leading to increased demand for land resources. The urban permanent population (Figure 1) is also unevenly distributed, with higher densities in the same economically developed areas. This concentration of population and economic activity exacerbates the competition for land resources, intensifying land use conflicts.

Figure 1

Geographic location and administrative divisions in the study area.

2.2 Data sources and preprocessing

The land use data for four time intervals spanning from 1990 to 2020 were gathered from the GlobeLand30 dataset available through the National Basic Geographic Information Center (http://www.ngcc.cn/ngcc/), which includes ten major land cover types. The land cover types are cultivated land, forest, grassland, shrub land, wetland, water body, tundra, artificial surface, bare land, glacier, and permanent snow, with a spatial resolution of 30 m. The land use types were reclassified into six types, namely, cultivated land, forestland, grassland, water, unused land, and construction land, using ArcGIS (Figure 2); these land use types are denoted by CUL (cultivated land), FL (forest land), GL (grass land), WL (water land), UL (unuse land), and COL (construction land), respectively, to facilitate land use conflict calculations.

Figure 2

Land use changes in the Huaihe River Basin, 1990–2020. (a) 1990, (b) 2000, (c) 2010, and (d) 2020. CUL: Cultivated land, FL: Forest land, GL: Grass land, WL: Water land, UL: Unuse land, COL: Construction land.

Land use conflict changes are the result of a combination of factors, and the selected data include natural and human factors. Referring to relevant research [10,34–36] and taking into account the specific circumstances of the study area, the pertinent variables were chosen for analysis and investigation (Table 1). Due to the absence of information on numerous variables prior to the year 2000, the investigation into influential factors causing land use conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin commenced in 2000. In ArcGIS software, after first rasterizing the data of all the driving factors X, the reclassification tool was used to produce a hierarchical map of each driving factor of land use change by reclassifying the factors according to the corresponding thresholds using the natural breakpoint method, and the driving factors X were divided into five categories (Figure 3).

Figure 3

Spatial distribution of the partial driving factors.

Using ArcGIS and Fragstats software, this study calculated the level of land use conflict in the Huaihe River Basin over the past 30 years from 1990 to 2020. The complexity index and stability index were calculated with Fragstats software using the moving window method. Since the results of various landscape indices calculated by Fragstats software depend on the size of grid scale selection, 1 km × 1 km, 2 km × 2 km, 3 km × 3 km, 4 km × 4 km, 5 km × 5 km, and 6 km × 6 km were selected for comparison, respectively. The spatial conflicts of 1 km × 1 km and 2 km × 2 km square grids are not significant because the granularity is too small, and the regional variability of 4 km × 4 km, 5 km × 5 km, and 6 km × 6 km land use conflicts is less significant with the increase in the grid scale compared with 3 km × 3 km, which is the most suitable scale for grid analysis. Based on the 3 km grid scale in ArcGIS, the Huaihe River Basin was divided into 37,516 grids, and the land use conflict level was divided into five categories according to the equal-distance method: no conflicts [0,0.2]; mild conflicts [0.2,0.4]; general conflicts [0.4,0.6]; moderate conflicts [0.6,0.8]; and severe conflicts [0.8,1].

Due to the large scope of the study area, the number of sampling points exceeded the scope of the geodetector used to process the data, as the districts and counties formed the basis for the statistical data of the driving forces. Thus, by creating random points, 10 random points were taken in each district and county, and there are a total of 316 counties in the study area. Thus, there were 3,160 random sampling points in total to generate the sampling point file. Then, the values of the land use conflict index and all of the driving factors were extracted to the sampling points, and the driving factor data and land use conflict index data were set as the independent variable (X) and dependent variable (Y), respectively. Finally, the geodetector was employed to compute and acquire the quantitative correlation between the land use conflicts index and individual driving factor.

2.3 Methods

3.1 Characteristics of changes in spatiotemporal patterns of land use

The analysis of changes in land use patterns serves as a fundamental basis for understanding and discussing land use conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin. Over the past three decades, the study area has witnessed substantial transformations in land use, which have direct implications for the emergence and evolution of land use conflicts.

In terms of the overall land use structure, cultivated land has consistently been the dominant land use type in the Huaihe River Basin, accounting for a significant proportion of the total land area. However, from 1990 to 2020, there has been a noticeable decline in the area of cultivated land, with an annual decrease observed. Conversely, the area of construction land has exhibited a steady increase, transitioning from a scattered distribution in 1990 to a dense, clustered distribution by 2020. This expansion of construction land has primarily occurred around urban areas and the fringes of rural-urban interfaces, demonstrating a pattern of marginal extension. The transformation in land use types is further elucidated by examining the land use transfer matrix (Figure 4). From 1990 to 2020, a substantial amount of cultivated land was converted into other land use types, with the majority being transformed into construction land. This conversion not only reflects the rapid urbanization and industrialization processes in the region but also highlights the competing demands for land resources between agricultural and non-agricultural activities.

Figure 4

Trajectory of land use change transfer in the Huaihe River Basin, 1990–2020. (a) 1990–2000, (b) 2000–2010, (c) 2010–2020, and (d) 1990–2020.

The spatial distribution of different land use types also reveals distinct patterns (Figure 2). Cultivated land is widely distributed across the basin, while construction land is concentrated primarily in urban centers and areas undergoing rapid urbanization. Forestland is predominantly located in the western and southern regions, characterized by hilly terrain and less intense human activities. Grassland, on the other hand, shows a declining trend and is now sporadically distributed, primarily due to conversion into agricultural or urban land uses. Water bodies, mainly rivers and lakes, are linearly distributed and remain relatively stable in terms of both distribution and size.

These changes in land use patterns have significant implications for land use conflicts. The decrease in cultivated land area threatens food security and agricultural sustainability, while the increase in construction land exacerbates competition for limited land resources. The conversion of agricultural land into urban or industrial uses often leads to economic conflicts between farmers and developers, as well as ecological conflicts related to habitat destruction and biodiversity loss. Additionally, the spatial clustering of construction land around urban centers suggests that land use conflicts may be more pronounced in these areas due to higher population densities and more intense land use activities.

3.2 Degree of land use conflicts and its spatiotemporal characteristics

In Figure 5, the distributions and percentages of land use conflicts index ranges in the Huaihe River Basin region are displayed. From a time-based viewpoint, in the time span from 1990 to 2020, the maximum count of grid cells at the level of conflict in the Huaihe River Basin area was consistently highest for overall disputes, while the category with the minimum grid cells was the absence of conflicts. In 1990, the number of general conflict grid cells was up to 2,464, accounting for 65.64%, followed by the moderate conflict grid cells, accounting for 21.19%. In 2000, the number of grid cells with no conflicts, mild conflicts, and general conflicts increased; in particular, the number of general conflicts increased by 9.43%, the number of grid cells with severe conflicts decreased by 84%, and the number of grid cells with moderate conflicts decreased the most, by 10.08%, which indicates that the conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin region weakened. In 2010, the number of grid cells with general conflicts decreased by 6.50%, while the number of grid cells with moderate or severe conflicts both increased, the proportion of moderate conflicts increased from 11.28% in 2000 to 17.12%, and the number of grid cells with severe conflicts was twice as high as that in 2000, showing the progressive escalation of conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin region. During 2020, the quantity of grid cells experiencing moderate to severe conflicts continued to climb, with the grid cells facing severe conflicts rising nearly triple the amount seen in 2000, suggesting a gradual escalation of tensions in the Huaihe River Basin area. In 2020, moderate conflicts and severe conflicts still showed an increasing trend, and severe conflicts increased nearly three times compared with 2000. From 2000 to 2020, the number of grid cells with no conflicts and general conflicts decreased, while the proportions of mild conflicts, moderate conflicts, and severe conflicts increased, indicating that the degree of land use conflicts in the study area increased. The land use conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin experienced an evolutionary process of first weakening and then intensifying during the whole study period. From 1990 to 2000, the decrease in land use conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin was due to the Circular of the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and The General Office of the State Council on Further Stabilizing and Improving the Rural Land Contract Relationship issued by the State in 1997. This land policy successfully guided farmers to return to their hometowns to reclaim land and attracted a large amount of social funds and technology to the agricultural field. From 1995 to 2000, a substantial portion of woodland and prairie was transformed into cultivable land, diminishing not just the decline in arable land but also alleviating conflicts and discrepancies associated with land utilization. The acceleration of industrialization and urbanization in the Huaihe River Basin from 2000 onward has led to an intensification of land use conflicts; for example, in 2005, Xuzhou city carried out large-scale new city construction, occupying a large amount of agricultural land.

Figure 5

Statistics on the types of land use conflicts from 1990 to 2020.

As shown in Figure 6, spatially, in 1990, the spatial distributions of no conflicts and mild conflicts were relatively consistent, with mild conflicts distributed in close proximity to no conflicts grid cells, mainly in Nanyang city and Luoyang city in Henan Province in the west; Suizhou city and Xiaogan city in Hubei Province in the south; and Lu’an city and Anqing city in Anhui Province in the south. General conflicts were the most widespread in the spatial scope, accounting for most of the intermediate area, and were mainly distributed in the center of cities, involving a number of local municipalities; moderate conflicts were distributed in sporadic spots in the various municipalities; and severe conflicts were mainly dispersed in the eastern section of the Huaihe River Basin in seaside municipalities such as Lianyungang city, Yancheng city, and Nantong city of Jiangsu Province and were chiefly centralized in the more economically advanced areas. In 2000, the number of general conflicts in the central and eastern regions of the grid decreased, and the land use conflicts in the Huaihe River basin were alleviated due to the implementation of the policy of returning farmland to forestland and grassland. By the year 2010, the quantity of grid units with moderate to severe conflicts rose noticeably, and their dispersion gradually grew denser. These cellular units were chiefly centralized in the majority of towns in Shandong Province, Zhengzhou in Henan Province, Hefei in Anhui Province, and the seaside municipalities in Jiangsu Province, primarily because of the clash between urban growth and agricultural land conservation caused by swift economic progress. During the course of 2020, the central sector of the Huaihe River Basin continued to encounter general and moderate conflicts. Due to the spatial spillover effect, mild conflicts around these areas are affected by the transformation into general conflicts and moderate conflicts. Compared with 2010, it is observed that some sporadic moderate conflicts were transformed into severe conflicts, and the scope and area of moderate conflicts and severe conflicts increased.

Figure 6

Spatial distribution of land use conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin from 1990 to 2020. (a) 1990, (b) 2000, (c) 2010.

From 1990to 2020, in Lianyungang city, Nantong city, and Yancheng city, some coastal areas were in the range of severe conflicts. Illustrating Lianyungang as a case in point, the city lies along the coast and its economic composition is chiefly characterized by heavy industry. Due to swift economic growth and urban sprawl, a considerable portion of rural land has been seized, leading to the gradual decline in original agricultural land. In 2018, special remediation activities in the key heavy metal prevention and control area of Lianyungang city forced some enterprises with severe pollution to close, which in turn exacerbated the tight land supply. Nantong city also faces similar problems. Yancheng city is located at the mouth of the Huaihe River. The urban area possesses abundant wetland assets and a favorable ecological setting, drawing numerous visitors and substantial investments. Nevertheless, excessive expansion in tourism and real estate sectors has heightened the discrepancy in land availability, intensifying conflicts over land usage in the municipality. There are also some cities where the degree of land use conflict has increased significantly, such as Zhengzhou in Henan Province, Xuzhou and Nanjing in Jiangsu Province, and some cities in Shandong Province. In 2015, an agricultural comprehensive development zone was set up in part of the Yellow River beach area in Zhengzhou, involving land expropriation from farmers. Although the government provided corresponding compensation to farmers, farmers were still dissatisfied as they thought that the compensation amount for land expropriation by the government was low, which led to a series of land expropriation disputes. To a large extent, the development zone encroaches on arable land and organic agricultural production land. Xuzhou city is an important industrial city and energy base in Jiangsu Province. The government has long insisted on a policy orientation centered around economic construction, with an emphasis on industry as the leading factor in promoting urbanization. In 2005, Xuzhou city began to vigorously promote urban greening, which in turn led to conflicts of interest between agriculture, construction, and ecological land use. As the capital city of Jiangsu Province and a pivotal urban center in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Nanjing encounters significant demand for land resources, resulting in diverse concerns regarding land use, which consequently triggers recurrent conflicts over land ownership, expropriation, compensation, and relocation. In 2019, Nanjing introduced a series of policies and measures to strengthen rural land reform, including exploring point supply, innovating the land supply model for rural tourism, and learning from Shanghai's efforts to turn unused farmhouses into “a courtyard and a headquarters” or transform them into “embedded” nursing homes. Zaozhuang and Linyi in Shandong Province are located in East China, where economic development is relatively rapid, and this area faces the dual pressures of urbanization and rural revitalization, with land use conflicts still intensifying. Mainly, these conflicts over land use largely appear in the economically prosperous areas of the Huaihe River basin, where there is a constant flurry of economic activities and intense competition for land resources. These conflicts encompass a broad spectrum of concerns, such as the escalating need for residential land driven by population growth, the imperative to safeguard arable land amidst industrial and agricultural expansion, and the retention of space for industrial and commercial purposes as well as green areas during the urbanization process. Policy considerations also hold significant sway, as local administrations strive to strike a delicate equilibrium between fostering economic progress and ensuring the prudent management of land resources. In light of the national strategic priority to advance an ecological civilization, it is crucial to carefully manage land use and maintain ecological balance in the transition zone between the south and north, notably in the Huaihe River basin, now emerges as a pivotal focal point within the sustainable development agenda.

3.3 Agglomeration characteristics of land use conflicts

The four-period land use conflict composite index of the study area was calculated using Geoda software, its global autocorrelation coefficients were obtained (Figure 7), and the p value was also calculated to test for statistical significance. The Moran's I index values for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 0.699, 0.696, 0.707, and 0.717, respectively. Moran’s I in all four periods was greater than 0.6, p < 0.01; at a 99% confidence level, the composite indicator of land use conflict in the Huaihe River Basin exhibits a notable and favorable global spatial autocorrelation, and the spatial clustering impact is robust. In addition, Moran’s I decreased first and then increased, indicating that the agglomeration effect of land use conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin increased from 1990 to 2020.

Figure 7

Global Moran's I. (a) 1990, (b) 2000, (c) 2010, and (d) 2020.

Global spatial autocorrelation analysis can offer a comprehensive overview of land use disputes in the Huaihe River Basin area, but local autocorrelation analysis needs to be introduced to better understand the differences and characteristics within the region. Using Geoda software, it is possible to map the spatial aggregation or divergence of spatial units and their neighborhood variables (Figure 8).

Figure 8

Spatial agglomeration characteristics. (a) 1990, (b) 2000, (c) 2010, and (d) 2020.

Overall, from 1990 to 2020, land use conflicts exhibiting obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics included high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration, while low-high agglomeration and high-low agglomeration were not considerable. High-high agglomeration areas were mainly concentrated in the northern region of the Huaihe River Basin in Shandong Province, and the coastal urban centers; the areas with the greatest concentration of high-level land use conflicts in the western region predominantly encompass Zhengzhou, Pingdingshan, and Xuchang cities; and the clustering impact continued to expand steadily. These areas are characterized by frequent human economic construction activities and high spatial complexity of land use, which leads to prominent spatial vulnerability and instability, resulting in concentrated and contiguous land use conflicts in these areas. From 1990–2020, regions with low-low concentration were predominantly located in the western section of the Huaihe River Basin in cities like Nanyang and Luoyang, as well as in the southern areas of Anqing and Lu'an. These regions are primarily composed of forests and cultivated land, making them particularly challenging to develop, and the spatial configuration of land use is straightforward. Hindered by the impact of terrain, which imposes restrictions on urban growth, land use categories have not undergone substantial alterations, land use intricacy is minimal, and steadiness is upheld at an elevated degree owing to the feeble impact of human endeavors. Broadly speaking, cities located in the central-eastern region of the Huaihe River Basin exhibit a higher concentration of spatial land use disputes compared to cities in the western and southern regions. This phenomenon embodies the variances in geographical environment, economic development, and social progress within the transition zone from south to north in China. Furthermore, it offers a crucial foundation for delving deeper into the examination and resolution of the land use predicaments within this specific region.

3.4 Research on driving mechanism of land use conflicts

3.4.1 Factor detection results

The factor identification unit was employed to investigate the land use conflict index of the Huaihe River Basin during three periods (2000, 2010, and 2020). The influence level of each driving factor on land use conflicts was quantified using the geodetector q-value (Figure 9).

Figure 9

The q value of the factor detection results. (a) 2000, (b) 2010, and (c) 2020.

According to the analysis in Figure 9, each factor has a different degree of influence on land use conflicts in the Huai River Basin during different periods. In 2000, the magnitude of the influence of each factor on the land use conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin decreased in the order DEM (0.194) > Precipitation (0.137) > Slope (0.135) > Population density (0.130) > PM2.5 (0.090) > Average temperature (0.087) > Gross regional product (0.071) > Value added in primary sector (0.053) > Value added in tertiary sector (0.038) = Balance of savings deposits of urban and rural residents (0.038) > Value added in secondary sector (0.020) > Lights at night (0.012). The top three influential factors were DEM (q = 0.194), precipitation (q = 0.137), and slope (q = 0.135). This reflects the foundational role of natural conditions in shaping early-stage land use conflicts. The Huaihe River Basin, characterized by significant topographical variations (e.g., western highlands vs eastern plains), inherently restricts agricultural and urban expansion in high-altitude regions, leading to concentrated conflicts in low-lying areas with gentler slopes. Precipitation, as a critical climatic driver, further modulates soil erosion risks and agricultural suitability, indirectly intensifying competition for cultivated land. Compared with that in 2000, the transition zone in China known as the Huaihe River Basin has undergone notable alterations in land use, with a weakening in the explanatory power of several factors. Notably, the influence of elevation, previously the most dominant factor, has decreased to 10.3%. Conversely, variables connected with human behavior, such as the increase in the service sector, the distribution of savings deposits in urban and rural regions, and nighttime brightness, have shown an increased ability to explain. This transformation reflects both the economic progress experienced in the Huaihe River Basin and the heightened conflict intensity regarding land utilization. By 2020, the explanatory power of all the driving factors showed an increasing trend compared to that in previous years, and the impact of each factor on the degree of land use conflict in the Huaihe River Basin was as follows: DEM (0.316) > slope (0.204) > population density (0.168) > precipitation (0.140) > PM2.5 (0.090) > average temperature (0.079) > nighttime lighting (0.077) > value-added of the tertiary industry (0.058) = urban and rural residents' savings deposit balance (0.058) > GDP (0.051) > value-added of the primary industry (0.046) > value-added of the secondary industry (0.042). By 2020, population density (q = 0.168) emerged as the third most influential factor, surpassing precipitation. This shift aligns with the rapid urbanization observed in the basin, particularly in cities like Zhengzhou and Nanjing, where population growth has escalated demand for residential and industrial land, exacerbating conflicts between urban expansion and farmland preservation [41]. Meanwhile, the persistent dominance of DEM (q = 0.316) and slope (q = 0.204) underscores the enduring constraints imposed by terrain on land use planning. For instance, the hilly western regions maintained lower conflict levels due to limited development suitability, whereas the eastern plains faced intensified conflicts driven by overlapping demands for construction and agriculture. In addition, the weak explanatory power of nighttime lighting (q = 0.012 in 2000; q = 0.077 in 2020) and tertiary industry value-added (q = 0.038–0.058) suggests that economic activities in the Huaihe Basin remain less spatially concentrated compared to coastal megacities. However, the gradual increase in these q-values signals a transition toward service-oriented urbanization, which may reshape future conflict patterns through industrial land restructuring.

3.4.2 Interaction detection results

According to the results of the interaction detection (Figure 10), the changes in land use conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin stem from the collective influence of numerous factors, with interplay among these influencing factors, some undergoing dual factor enhancements while others experiencing nonlinear enhancements, highlighting the complexity of conflict mechanisms. The interaction detection results for the three periods in 2000, 2010, and 2020 showed little difference. The mutual impacts of these two elements on land use conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin showed a fortified connection, while the interplay of the majority of elements with mean temperature, rainfall, and tertiary sector value-added displayed nonlinear reinforcement. The interaction effect of most factors with elevation, slope, and population density was large, revealing a double factor enhancement effect. In 2000, the interaction between DEM and slope exhibited the highest q-value (q = 0.25), demonstrating a bifactor enhancement effect. This synergy arises because steep slopes in high-altitude areas (e.g., western Dabie Mountains) compound terrain limitations, rendering these regions unsuitable for intensive land use, thereby reducing conflicts. Conversely, gentle slopes in low-elevation plains (e.g., eastern Jiangsu) amplify human accessibility, accelerating land use competition. Compared with those in 2000, the factor interaction results in 2010 weakened in force when the DEM (X1) and slope (X2) interacted with other factors. This is because natural factors such as elevation and slope changed to a lesser extent, whereas the interaction of X8 (population density) with other factors has increased, pointing out that human actions are also among the key factors influencing conflicts in land usage. The interaction between population density and DEM showed significant nonlinear enhancement (q = 0.28 in 2020). In densely populated lowland cities (e.g., Nantong), elevated demand for construction land clashes with limited terrain suitability, creating “hotspots” of severe conflicts. This aligns with the “marginal expansion,” where urban sprawl predominantly occurs at the fringes of existing built-up areas. Interactions involving GDP and temperature (q = 0.10–0.12) revealed weakened effects over time, suggesting that economic growth in the Huaihe Basin has partially decoupled from climatic constraints. For example, advancements in irrigation technology mitigated the impact of temperature fluctuations on agricultural productivity, reducing conflicts related to crop land conversion [45].

Figure 10

Impact factor interaction detection values. (a) 2000, (b) 2010, and (c) 2020.

In general, DEM, slope and population density are the primary elements influencing conflicts in land usage. Due to the limitations of geographical environments, areas with higher elevations are generally not suitable for large-scale agricultural cultivation and urban construction but are more suitable for forestry or tourism development. Nonetheless, certain terrains with minimal heights and level topography serve as primary locations for farming activities and urban development expansion. For example, the western part of the Huaihe River Basin has hilly terrain with high elevation, so land use conflicts are not significant; however, land use conflicts are more significant in urban areas with low elevation. The steepness of the slope is directly related to how land is used and the intensity of land use. Generally, places with smaller slopes are suitable for agricultural cultivation and habitation because it is easy to build water conservancy facilities and paved roads at these sites. In contrast, places with larger slopes are often unsuitable for large-scale agricultural cultivation and construction due to geographical constraints, so they are more often used for forestry or ecological protection. The transitional zone between North and South China, characterized by transitional climates, vegetation, and soils, encompasses the plains of North China as well as certain areas in the Yangtze River basin. This area plays a vital function in farming activities and represents a center for the gathering of inhabitants. Particularly, in highly populated cities like Zhengzhou in Henan Province, Nanjing, and Nantong in Jiangsu Province, the demands and conflicts related to land use are noticeably pronounced. The escalating population and urban expansion have led to a sharp rise in the demand for residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation infrastructure, intensifying the competition for limited land resources.

4.1 Analysis of spatiotemporal evolution causes of land use conflicts

The spatiotemporal evolution of land use conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin is characterized by significant spatial and temporal discrepancies. Spatially, notable confrontations exist in the eastern and central sectors of the Huaihe River Basin, primarily characterized by the encroachment of building land onto arable land. Consequently, over the past three decades, arable land has continued to exhibit a decreasing tendency, while building land has expanded in a consistent outward manner, aligning with earlier research findings [44,45]. Temporally, there was an initial decline followed by a subsequent rise in the land use conflict index of the Huaihe River Basin. This pattern is distinct from that of the Yangtze River Basin, where a more commonly observed incremental growth in land use conflict is driven by significant economic prosperity, dense population, and high intensity of land use [46,47]. In the context of China’s north-south transition zone, the Huaihe River Basin region exhibits diverse natural geological conditions and climatic characteristics, resulting in distinct economic development modes and industrial structures [48]. Historically, the economic development of this region has fallen behind that of the eastern coastal areas due to unequal distribution of natural resources. To address this imbalance and unlock the economic potential of the central and western regions, the state has implemented strategic initiatives such as the “Western Development” and the “Rise of Central China.” These policies have revitalized the Huaihe River Basin and its surrounding areas, stimulating infrastructure development, industrial advancement, and rapid urbanization. Consequently, as urbanization advances and economic structures improve, the function of land use in the area has undergone substantial changes [49]. The escalating demand for land resources has exacerbated conflicts over land use, given that the transition from mainly agricultural to industrial and urban residential land usage has not only affected the steadiness and durability of farming output but also escalated conflicts between environmental preservation and economic exploitation.

4.2 Analysis of driving mechanism of land use conflicts

The driving mechanism of land use conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin is complex and multifaceted. Specifically, in the Huai River Basin, a quintessential region within this transitional zone, key natural factors impacting land use conflicts include elevation, slope, and population density. This highlights the direct influence of natural conditions and population distribution on land use patterns. In this zone, the distinct natural environments from north to south result in significant regional disparities in the distribution and utilization of water and soil resources. In related studies, the natural factors affecting land use conflicts vary according to the geographic location of the study area. For example, Mo et al. reported that the influence of factors such as altitude and distance from nearby large rivers continued to increase in their study of land use conflict drivers in the Yellow River Basin [50], since different geographic environments and climatic conditions can have different impacts on land use. The landscape characteristics of the Huaihe River Basin region exhibit significant diversity, with changes in the elevation and slope directly impacting soil erosion, the frequency of disasters, and agricultural practices, consequently affecting the prevalence of land utilization conflicts. A high population density means that more people need to use limited land resources, which leads to increased competition and conflict, thus affecting the method and efficiency of land use, in line with the results of most studies on the drivers of land use conflicts. For example, in Cui et al.’s identification of drivers of land use conflicts in the Yangtze River Economic Zone [51], the total population and population density were found to be strong drivers. In summary, the driving mechanism of land use conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin is a complex interplay between natural factors (elevation, slope) and human factors (population density). Understanding these factors is crucial for developing effective land use policies that can balance economic growth, environmental protection, and social equity.

4.3 Policy recommendations

To effectively alleviate land use conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin, it is essential to develop differentiated regulatory measures based on the level of regional conflicts, while also taking into account the special characteristics of this region, including the unique features of each province and city, and integrating international integration, national demand, and regional expansion [52–54]. Situated within the central hub of the “Belt and Road” initiative, the region of the Huaihe River Basin could leverage this chance to enhance economic and commercial interactions with the nations along the pathway and implement infrastructure development and industrial enhancement. By adjusting the industrial structure and developing an ecological and circular economy, land use conflicts should be solved from the source. However, to address spatial heterogeneity in conflict levels, differentiated regulatory measures should be re-established based on the level of regional conflicts. High-conflict zones: Implement strict urban growth boundaries and ecological compensation mechanisms to curb construction land encroachment. Slope-based zoning could restrict development in areas exceeding 15°, while targeted subsidies for farmland conservation may alleviate rural-urban land competition. Moderate-conflict zones: Optimize land use efficiency through compact urban planning and agroecological integration. Promoting mixed-use industrial-agricultural clusters could balance economic and ecological objectives. Low-conflict zones: Strengthen ecological connectivity by restoring wetlands and forest corridors, leveraging the region’s higher stability index to buffer against future pressures.

4.4 Major limitations and future research

While this study provides valuable insights into the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of land use conflicts in the Huaihe River Basin, several limitations merit acknowledgment. First, the resolution of land use data (30 m) and temporal granularity (decadal intervals) may obscure short-term conflict dynamics and fine-scale spatial interactions, particularly in rapidly urbanizing areas where land use changes occur at subannual scales. Second, and notably, the calculation indicators utilized in the model exhibit a degree of single-mindedness, which could potentially limit the robustness and comprehensiveness of the analysis. The complexity index, vulnerability index, and stability index, while collectively constituting a framework for evaluating land use conflicts, each focus on a specific aspect of land use systems. The complexity index, for instance, is primarily concerned with spatial complexity, ignoring the functional diversity and ecological implications of land use patterns. The vulnerability index assigns fixed vulnerability values to land use types, oversimplifying the dynamic and context-specific nature of vulnerability. Similarly, the stability index primarily measures spatial continuity and integrity, neglecting temporal stability and resilience. The reliance on these singular indicators, rather than a multidimensional suite of metrics, may fail to fully encapsulate the multifaceted nature of land use conflicts. Moreover, the geodetector models, while effective in identifying key drivers, may not fully capture the intricate nonlinear interactions and feedback loops that characterize land use systems. This limitation further underscores the need for a more holistic and integrated approach for assessing land use conflicts. To address these limitations, future research should strive to: Collect more comprehensive and detailed land use data, including high-resolution remote sensing imagery and ground survey data, to enhance the precision and granularity of conflict assessment. Develop and incorporate multidimensional calculation indicators that consider not only spatial but also functional, ecological, and temporal dimensions of land use systems. Explore advanced models and algorithms, such as machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques, to better capture the complex and nonlinear relationships between land use conflicts and their driving factors. In conclusion, by recognizing and addressing the limitations of the current model, particularly with regard to the single-mindedness of the calculation indicators, future research can aim to provide a more nuanced and comprehensive understanding of land use conflicts, ultimately supporting more effective and informed policy-making.