Vulnerability context due to COVID-19 and El Nino: Case study of poultry farming in South Sulawesi, Indonesia

2.1 Overview of vulnerability and impact in agriculture

Vulnerability and impact are distinct yet interconnected concepts. Vulnerability refers to the degree to which a system, community, or structure is susceptible to harm due to exposure to hazards and its limited capacity to adapt. In agriculture, this encompasses factors such as climatic conditions, economic pressures, and social dynamics, which influence the system’s exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity [31,32,33,34]. In contrast, impacts represent the tangible consequences of these vulnerabilities, such as changes in crop yields, economic performance, and overall farm sustainability [35,36,37]. Vulnerability is shaped by social, environmental, economic, and political contexts, influencing risk levels and resource accessibility [38,39]. Vulnerability is the sensitivity and negative tendency due to hazards and lack of adaptability. Measuring vulnerability helps assess potential disaster impacts and informs risk-reduction strategies in agricultural systems [40,41,42,43,44]. Distinguishing these concepts is essential for developing strategies to reduce risks and manage their impact on farms and agricultural businesses.

2.2 Impact of COVID-19 on poultry farming

Corn has a significant influence on the production rate of poultry farms. Corn farmers revealed that COVID-19 affects production decisions because of the high input prices (fertilizers and seeds) and labor costs [44]. The cost of importing agricultural supplies has risen significantly due to the shutdown of borders and the suspension of commercial flights [13,45]. Due to the lockdowns, livestock farmers suffered from reduced access to livestock input, market access, and animal care. They also experience reduced feed availability for livestock due to disruption of supply chains and reduced consumer demand for animal products [46,47]. The impact of COVID-19 varied depending on the production systems. Broiler farms have a much shorter production cycle than layer farms and can quickly adjust their operational status by closing or reopening. In contrast, few layer farms reopened after closing their businesses [48].

2.3 Impact of El Niño on poultry farming

El Niño drought also affects production on poultry farms, which is responsible for 80% of the total losses, causing farmers to implement early planting strategies and select drought-tolerant varieties to mitigate its effects [49]. El Niño induces heat waves and droughts that may cause heat stress in poultry in addition to drought [50]. A decrease in feed sources, an increase in animal mortality, a decline in the size and productivity of livestock, and the emergence of unusual animal diseases are among the challenges poultry farmers encounter in response to fluctuations in temperature and rainfall [51,52]. Drought has direct physical consequences due to climate change, including reduced agricultural yields, livestock loss, and water shortages. This outcome has implications for society, including the compulsory sale of household assets and land. Their vulnerability is significantly influenced by access and assets [31,53]. This study aimed to identify the themes associated with vulnerability and impact on both types of poultry farms during disasters and to analyze appropriate mitigation strategies for poultry farms. The emerging themes are related to the cultivation process and business operations of poultry farming.

3.1 Research context

The research approach was qualitative and used a case study design. The case investigation is explanatory and is designed to explain the phenomena [54,55] of the COVID-19 and El Niño crises. This research was a collective case study in which multiple cases were selected to illustrate the problem based on the issues under study. This collective case study aimed to investigate various cases to illustrate the viewpoints on the subject [56,57]. This case study is based on data from two distinct locales: Maros Regency and Sidenreng Rappang (Sidrap) Regency. It compares the performance of two poultry farming businesses (broiler and layer chickens) during two distinct events: COVID-19 and El Niño.

The research area focused on Maros Regency for broiler chicken farming and Sidrap Regency for layer chicken farming (Figure 1). Maros Regency has long been known as the largest producer of broiler chickens in South Sulawesi Province. However, the chicken population in Maros Regency declined during the COVID-19 pandemic, from 34 million chickens in 2019 before the pandemic to 24 million chickens in 2021 after the pandemic. Similarly, Sidrap Regency, the egg production center in South Sulawesi Province, also experienced a decline in the laying hen population from 4.1 million in 2019 to 1.3 million in 2020 during the pandemic [12]. The COVID-19 pandemic wave occurred in three stages: the first stage in early 2020, the second stage in mid-2021, and the third stage in early February 2022. The pandemic lasted for 2 years, with the majority of the decrease in chicken numbers occurring from late 2020 through the end of 2021.

Figure 1

Map of the research sites in Maros and Sidrap Regency in South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. Source: Modified from Indonesia Geospasial, accessed on June 3, 2024.

Unlike the COVID-19 pandemic, a new disaster, EL Niño, is a drought disaster that farmers have long faced. Over the past 40 years, Indonesia has experienced several El Niño series, ranging from moderate levels in 2002, 2006, and 2009 to severe levels in 1997, 2015, and the recent 2023 [58,59]. Farmers have experienced droughts due to El Niño, and the duration usually occurs for approximately 5–6 months from July to November. Although not as devastating as COVID-19, El Niño still has a detrimental impact on poultry output, particularly due to the elevated temperatures causing heat stress in broiler and layer farms.

Broiler and layer farms exhibited significant differences in terms of rearing purpose, duration, cage type, and management system. Broiler farming prioritizes meat quality, employs a short rearing period (0–45 days), utilizes open and closed housing system cages (with an observed increase in closed housing system usage over the past 5 years), and operates under a contract management system. Conversely, layer farming focuses on egg quality, involves a prolonged rearing period (0–2 years), predominantly uses open housing cages, and operates under an independent management system.

3.2 Data collection

Participants were selected from two districts, including farmers and agri-food companies. Farmer participants were selected using typical case sampling (TCS) to examine vulnerability in two different types of farms. TCS is a purposive sampling method that aims to observe typical cases by comparing participants’ experiences of a phenomenon [59,60]. A total of 36 farmers participated in the study, comprising 20 layer farmers (A1–A20) and 16 broiler farmers (B1–B16). To provide insights into the COVID-19 and El Niño disasters, the farmer participants must have had at least 5 years of farming business experience. The agri-food participants included an international broiler feed company, a national broiler and layer feed and broiler contract farming partnership, and a local feed and equipment farm store. The data collection included companies to provide a broader insight into the conditions during the COVID-19 and El Niño periods and the vulnerabilities that arose. It also aimed to validate some of the questions posed to farmers regarding the price of feed during the disaster and the nature of the business ties between companies and farmers. Interviews were conducted from mid-2023 to early 2024, when COVID-19 was over and EL Niño was ongoing. Recent El Niño events occurred in Indonesia from August to December 2023.

Data were collected through interviews, observations, and document analysis which allowed the researcher to gain a comprehensive understanding of the case and corroborate the findings through triangulation [60]. The interviews were semi-structured and in-depth and were a collaborative effort to gather qualitative data. This approach allowed us to explore a wide range of opinions and ideas regarding the vulnerabilities and impacts of the COVID-19 and El Niño crises on poultry farming in the region. Before creating the questionnaire, we interviewed a participant from each type of farm, inviting them to share their experiences and insights to establish reference points. The questionnaire protocol was then verified and reviewed by the research team to ensure a collective understanding. Pilot testing was conducted through interviews with three farmers, and the results were subsequently discussed and validated by the research team. Furthermore, interviews were conducted with all participants, which were divided into two sections: the characteristics of poultry farming businesses and experiences during and after the pandemic and during El Niño (Table 1).

Prior to the interview, we introduced ourselves and asked the participants if they were willing to be interviewed, informing them that their identities would be kept confidential throughout the study [61]. Interviews were conducted in Indonesian for an average duration of 60–90 min for each participant. The participants were informed that audio recordings and notes would be used during the interviews. Furthermore, observations were conducted on-site. The observed aspects included the conditions of poultry farming, work patterns, and interactions among workers. Documentation was conducted with farmers before and after the pandemic. This note contains data on animal production, purchases, sales, and other relevant information. Most farmers did not keep records; only four reported having them, and only two were willing to share their records.

1. Informed consent: All participants provided verbal consent to participate in this study.

2. Ethical approval: This research was approved by The Institutional Review Board of the Graduate School of Hasanuddin University (Approval No. 13609/UN4.20.1/PT.01.04/2023). The researchers also obtained permission from the government office at the research site (Approval No. 30442/S.01/PTSP/2023).

3.3 Data analysis

The data and information collected from interviews with participants, recorded conversations, notes from discussions, observational findings, and documents were analyzed and compared using NVivo 15 software. NVivo 15 is suitable for conducting effective qualitative data analysis. This enables the comparison, contrast, and categorization of data based on patterns, facilitating uncomplicated coding and theme development [62,63]. To ensure the reliability of the coding process, the responses were independently coded by a second researcher, and any discrepancies were discussed and resolved through consensus. The analysis process in NVivo 15 consisted of several stages (Figure 2). First, the software imports text, audio, and image documents. Second, the data were organized into separate folders. Third, coding was performed by extracting the codes and themes. Fourth, cases are created using the classifications and attributes. Finally, the data were analyzed through descriptions from themes of the case and cross-themes [56] from both phenomena using coding matrices and mind maps. The analysis was a thematic analysis in which codes and topics were generated through coding [64].

Figure 2

Data analysis process. Source: Modified from Canva.

4.1 Overview of farmers and broiler and layer farming businesses

The total number of farmers was 36. To provide a demographic picture, interviews with farmers began with questions about their name, age, gender, last education, duration of business ownership, status of their farming business during the COVID-19 pandemic, and type of cage used (Table 2).

4.2 Vulnerability during COVID-19 and El Niño

The mind map (Figure 3) illustrates vulnerability during the COVID-19 pandemic and the El Niño phenomenon. Each parent node generated several child nodes or subthemes derived from the coding process results. These results demonstrate that chicken farming businesses are vulnerable to several factors during the pandemic. These include a decline in the prices of chickens and eggs, increased feed costs, and DOC. During the El Niño event, the vulnerability is manifested in several ways. These include the effects of high temperatures and heat waves, which cause chickens to overheat, and weight reduction, coupled with increased feed prices and difficulties in obtaining corn feed.

Figure 3

Themes and sub-themes of the COVID-19 and El Niño vulnerability.

4.2.1 Cross-themes between vulnerability during the COVID-19 and the El Niño disasters

There were eight major themes and five subthemes of vulnerability during the periods of interest in this study. The results demonstrate a similarity in the vulnerability factors, namely the increase in feed prices. During the COVID-19 period, the price of feed that increased was concentrates, and during the El Niño event, the price of feed increased, namely bran and corn (Figure 4).

Figure 4

Cross-themes during the period of COVID-19 and the El Niño.

There are three principal categories of poultry feed: corn, bran, and concentrate. Subsequently, the above components were combined and provided to the chickens in two daily feedings. Farmers typically determine the feed composition, with variations depending on their preferences. In general, the composition of the feed is 40–50% corn, 5–10% bran, and 10–15% concentrate. Feed prices appear to be the same theme in the context of vulnerability to COVID-19 and El Niño disasters. However, the concentrates increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Farmer A4, a layer farmer, complained about the 30% increase in concentrate prices.

“The price of feed has also increased. The concentrate is currently IDR 500,000/sack, whereas before the onset of the pandemic, it was only IDR 350,000/sack.”- A4, Layer farmer.

This is consistent with the statement by NP, the feed company, that the price of concentrates has increased because of the necessity of importing raw materials for their production.

“Two imported raw materials are involved: Soya Bean Mill (SBM)/soybean meal imported from Argentina and Meat Bone Mill/meat and bone meal imported from Brazil and China. The value of the dollar increased, resulting in higher purchase prices for the two raw materials. Furthermore, the lack of import-export activities during the pandemic led to a scarcity of goods, resulting in the warehouse’s inventory being the only source of supply”. – N.P., Feed company.

In contrast to the circumstances surrounding the pandemic, El Niño events led to increased feed prices, with corn and bran becoming increasingly expensive. Previously, the price of corn was IDR 5,000/kg and that of bran was IDR 4,000/kg. However, from August to December, when there was no rain and a heatwave occurred, the price of corn increased to IDR 9,000/kg and bran to IDR 6,000/kg.

“Additionally, feed prices have increased. The price of bran has risen to IDR 6,000/kg, potentially due to crop failure in December caused by leafhoppers. Consequently, many factories are transporting their bran to Makassar for sale to feed companies”.- A9, Layer farmer.

Feed prices significantly impact the sustainability of livestock businesses. Pandemics have been shown to cause an increase in feed prices and supply chain disruptions [2].

4.3 Impact of COVID-19 and El Niño

The coding results on the impact of COVID-19 and El Niño crises in Figure 5 show parent nodes and several child nodes or several effects that occur when the impact of COVID-19 is greater than that of El Niño. The total impact of COVID-19 is seven themes with an additional seven sub-themes so the total number is 14 themes, while for El Niño there are only three themes.

Figure 5

Themes and subthemes of the Impact of COVID-19 and El Niño.

4.4 Comparison of vulnerability and impact of COVID-19 and El Niño on broiler and layer farming business

Following the coding process, it became evident that both broiler and layer farms exhibited distinct vulnerabilities and impacts in response to the two disasters. Among the identified themes, only the feed price was found to be a common factor in both cases. The subsequent brief overview is presented in Table 3.

The data in Table 3 indicate that both businesses exhibit a similar degree of vulnerability during the ongoing pandemic. Both expressed concerns regarding the rise in input prices, particularly those related to feed and DOC, which have been exacerbated by the implementation of lockdown measures. The pandemic has disrupted distribution channels and input supply chains due to lockdowns [5,72,73]. For broiler farms, the selling price of chickens is a significant factor because the final product of the business is subject to market forces. Similarly, layer farms were affected by a decline in egg prices. However, broiler farms, which have shorter production cycles, have demonstrated greater resilience than layer farms during the pandemic [3,48].

Vulnerable layer farms face increased feed prices, overheated chickens, and corn scarcity during El Niño events. In contrast, broilers are susceptible to only two factors, overheating and decreased weight. Drought during El Niño events can diminish maize production, resulting in elevated feed prices [66,74,75]. The weight of chickens in broiler farming significantly impacts the selling price because product sales are carried out by weighing the live weight of broiler birds [76,77].

The impact of the pandemic can be classified into seven categories, five of which pertain to layer farms and three to broiler farms. This indicates that the pandemic has a more pronounced effect on the chicken layer industry. These effects are particularly evident in saving utilization, early culling of chickens, income reduction, and reduced labor. Prior research conducted during the global pandemic has also demonstrated a reduction in the number of workers employed in agricultural businesses [78,79,80], livestock numbers [81], and income levels [82,83]. In the context of the ongoing pandemic and concurrent El Niño, farmers have asserted that they have not received any form of government assistance. This is even though direct assistance in the form of cash or subsidies to farm inputs could prove invaluable for enabling farmers to survive. A previous study [84] indicated that cash transfers and procurement of agricultural inputs from the Indian government can enhance the resilience of small-scale farmers, a particularly vulnerable group. Implementing government programs for small-scale farmers can boost agricultural production and reduce poverty [85].

The findings of the coding matrix (Tables A1 and A2) on vulnerability between broiler and layer farms during the pandemic reveal that a greater number of coding results were obtained from layer farms in comparison to broiler farms. A notable distinction is observed in the escalating cost of feed, a challenge that is more profoundly experienced by layer farmers. Moreover, five-layer farms were forced to cease operations. These farms are small-scale businesses with populations of less than 5,000 birds. This finding supports the study by Amin et al. [68] which indicated that many smallholder poultry farmers were compelled to terminate their businesses during the pandemic because of a lack of financial assistance.

During the El Niño event, both businesses experienced chicken mortality caused by heat stress (Tables A3 and A4), which negatively affected production. For broilers, this resulted in a reduction in the chicken population, whereas for layers, it reduced egg production. In line with this, Berhane and Tesfay [66] also showed drought-related livestock mortality.

The significance of diversifying business models cannot be overstated. Layer farmers may wish to consider adopting a contract business system or a combination of an independent system with a more stable model to reduce vulnerability during crises (Figure 6). Vulnerability is a result of negative aspects arising from disasters [41] such as unstable prices, heat stress, and feed scarcity. Vulnerability results in tangible negative impacts [34,35] on poultry farming such as chicken mortality, decreased production, and farmer income.

Figure 6

Vulnerability of COVID-19 and El Niño impact on poultry farming and mitigation strategies.

To mitigate the risk of chicken mortality and economic losses, it is recommended that consideration be given to the development or implementation of a closed-house system equipped with temperature-control systems. Technological innovations, such as using more efficient cooling devices, optimal ventilation settings, and closed-house systems equipped with advanced temperature-control technologies can protect chickens from extreme weather conditions. For example, the use of evaporative cooling systems can help maintain optimal temperatures in coop which improves chicken survival and productivity during heat stress [86]. The occurrence of delays in payments to feed and medicine providers indicates the need for enhanced coordination between farmers and agri-food companies/suppliers. Establishing stronger relationships with suppliers and negotiating payment flexibility during crises can reduce the burden on farmers and enhance business resilience.

In addition, implementing more proactive government policies aimed at providing financial assistance or fiscal incentives to farmers during crises is crucial. This could facilitate the development of more effective subsidy programs, soft loans, or disaster insurance schemes for the poultry sector. For instance, during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, the Indian government implemented cash transfers demonstrated that emergency relief assistance effectively reached vulnerable groups including small-scale farmers [84]. This program helped mitigate the financial shock and enabled farmers to maintain their operations. Similar programs could be tailored for poultry farmers, offering subsidies for feed and medical supplies, or providing soft loans to support their businesses during periods of disruption.

Exploring alternative feed resources is another crucial strategy. The scarcity of maize during El Niño events highlights the need for diversification of feed sources. Research into the use of locally available materials such as palm kernel cake, sugar cane, sago waste, sugar cane, and dried rice as feed alternatives [87,88]. In Kenya, the International Centre for Insect Physiology and Ecology (ICIPE) has successfully introduced insect-based feed for poultry, which not only reduces reliance on traditional feed but also provides a high-protein alternative, thus enhancing the nutritional intake of livestock [89].

In summary, poultry farming can enhance resilience to crises like COVID-19 and El Niño by implementing thorough mitigation strategies. Government support, alternative feed resources, and technological innovations in closed-house systems can collectively contribute to the sustainability and stability of poultry farming operations. These strategies not only help farmers survive immediate crises but also build a foundation for long-term resilience and growth in the face of future challenges.