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Impacts of marine cloud brightening scheme on climatic extremes in the Tibetan Plateau

  • Zhihua Zhang EMAIL logo , Yuanzhuo Zhu and Michael James Cardwell Crabbe
Published/Copyright: September 29, 2023
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Abstract

As an ecologically fragile plateau and major water source in Asia, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has grown warmer over recent decades, contributing to frequent occurrence of extreme climate events. It is urgently needed to find a suitable option to mitigate climate change impacts in the TP. The marine cloud brightening (MCB) scheme is proposed to mitigate global warming through the increasing cloud droplet number concentration of low marine clouds to reflect some solar radiation back into space. Until now, impacts of MCB scheme on the TP have not been investigated. In this study, we utilized 13 Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices to assess the evolution of climate extremes over the TP with/without MCB implementation. We found that although the MCB is implemented over ocean only, it would cause significant changes on climate extremes in the TP which is very far from oceans and much higher than sea level. During 2030–2059, MCB implementation can decrease warm temperature extremes, leading to a significant decrease in the TXx index by 6–18°C, the TX90p index by 15–45 days, and the TN90p index by 15–50 days. MCB implementation would also have some cooling effects on cold temperature extremes, leading to an increase in the ID index by 30–80 days, the TX10p index by 22–32 days, and the TN10p index by about 12 days and a decrease in the TNn index by 0.5–1.5°C. Although MCB implementation would not have much impacts on precipitation extremes, it would significantly increase the area of the region with <10% drought frequency, and increase the drought intensity in the west of Lhasa city.

1 Introduction

Global warming is one of the greatest threats to human survival [1] and seriously restricts the achievement of UN sustainable development goals [2], especially for developing countries [3]. The main factor causing global warming is the increase in global carbon emissions [4]. In March 2021, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached more than 417 ppm at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii while the pre-industrial level was just about 278 ppm. The past 7 years (2015–2021) are on track to be the seven warmest on record [5]. Further warming of the Earth’s system would increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, leading to significantly negative impacts on many vulnerable aspects of human health, social organization, and natural systems [6,7,8,9].

In order to mitigate climate change, the marine cloud brightening (MCB) scheme, which is designed to reflect a small amount of solar radiation back into space by increasing the cloud albedo, has been proposed [10]. It can be implemented in practice by adding suitable cloud condensation nuclei (e.g., sea salt) into the tropic marine boundary layer, leading to the enhancement of the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) and the reduction in the droplet sizes. MCB implementation would cause a global significant temperature decrease with strong cooling over low-latitude continents [11]; meanwhile, the global mean precipitation would decrease by about 1.3%, and runoff over land would increase by 7.5% especially over tropical land [12]; especially, a significant drying would occur in the Amazon basin [13]. The added particles must be small enough to avoid increase in the precipitation, but large enough to activate into cloud droplets [14]. Based on simulation of three climate models (NorESM1-M, GISS-E2-R, and HadGEM2-ES), MCB scheme would increase the CNDC in lower layers, reduce the cloud-top effective droplet radius, and increase the cloud optical depth over the injection area [15]. Horowitz et al. [16] revealed that MCB implement can lead to changes in global tropospheric ozone (−3 to −6%) and methine lifetime (+3 to 6%). By running geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory model to simulate MCB scheme, Mahfouz et al. [17] revealed the perturbations in the tropics would lead to significant changes outside the tropics. Existing research mainly focused on global-scale impacts of MCB schemes, while region-scale impacts were analyzed very limitedly. Latham et al. [18] found by utilizing HadGEM1 model that MCB could significantly reduce sea surface temperatures in regions where hurricanes develop, leading to the weakening of hurricanes. Zhu et al. [19] recommended to consider MCB scheme as a potential emergency shield to catastrophic climate extremes and resulting disasters in Sahara-Sahel-Arabian Peninsula zone. Goddard et al. [20] indicated that MCB could cool the waters in the Gulf of Mexico and then reduce hurricane strength and benefit local coral reefs.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is situated in one of Earth’s extreme continental climate settings and is influenced by numerous climatic regimes such as the East Asian and Indian monsoons and westerlies [21]. As an ecologically fragile region with the highest altitude, the TP has grown warmer and wetter over recent decades, contributing to the occurrence of extreme climate events [22]. In most regions of the TP, almost all warm extreme indices display significant increasing trends and most of the cold extreme indices show significant decreasing trends during 1961–2016 [22]. The number of frost days is predicted to decrease and the frequency of warm nights increase over the TP in the twenty-first century, while heavy precipitation events are projected to increase in their intensity over most parts of the TP [23]. As global warming continues, it is predicted that the climate of the TP will break the balance of the past, while the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events would increase significantly, leading to serious impacts on the ecological environment, agricultural production, and social economy [24]. It is urgently needed to find a suitable option to mitigate climate change impacts in the TP.

The impacts of MCB scheme demonstrate significant regional differences: some countries and regions would gain from MCB scheme considerably, whereas others might be faced with a worse set of circumstances than would be the case without MCB [25]. The TP plays a crucial role in the provision of water resources to most of the Asian continent, both directly via the large rivers that originate there and also via the temperature contrast between the TP and the Ocean, which is an important controlling factor for both the Asian monsoon and global atmospheric circulation patterns. MCB implementation would not only affect the TP itself, but also have a profound impact on East and South Asia. Until now, impacts of MCB scheme on the TP have not been investigated. Therefore, in this study, we will quantify impacts of the MCB scheme on mitigating the increasing trend of climate extremes in the TP.

2 Study area

The TP, with an average elevation of over 4,000 m and an area of approximately 2.5 × 106 km2, is the highest and most extensive highland in the world [26]. Its environment is characterized as a high-altitude arid steppe interspersed with mountain ranges and large lakes and exerts a huge influence on regional-scale and global-scale climate through the temperature contrast between the TP and the Oceans [27]. Due to its strong sensitivity to climate change, the TP is considered as one of the most vulnerable ecosystems. The total annual solar radiation is 140–180 kcal/cm2 and the total annual sunshine hours can reach 2,500–3,200 h. The annual average temperature in the TP decreases from 20°C in the southeast to below −6°C in the northwest. Since the warm and humid air currents in the southern-ocean are blocked by multiple high mountains, the annual average precipitation in the TP reduces from 2,000 mm to below 50 mm.

3 Data and methods

The main factor causing global warming is the increase in the anthropogenic carbon emissions. The widely used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios describe plausible future trajectories of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration conditions. These RCP scenarios for climate change research are not forecasts or predictions, but reflect expert judgments regarding plausible future emissions [28]. The RCP4.5 is the middle-of-the-road carbon emissions scenario and assumes continued anthropogenic carbon emissions increasing from today’s level, followed by a decrease from the year 2040 and stabilization by the year 2100, at which time the anthropogenic radiative forcing amounts to 4.5 W/m2 over pre-industrial level [29]. By inputting RCP scenarios into climate models, researchers can evaluate trends of future climate change under difference carbon emission trajectories and reveal implications of different mitigation and adaption approaches.

3.1 Simulated data of MCB scheme

Due to possible side effects and huge amount of implement costs, the MCB scheme cannot be implemented directly in the real world, so various climate models are used to simulate MCB scheme and reveal its impacts, efficiency, and side effects. In the known GeoMIP experiments, the G4cdnc experiment dealt with MCB scheme, and it was designed to simulate an increase in the CDNC of the global marine lower clouds by 50% under the RCP4.5 scenario from 2020 to 2069 [14,30]. Output data of G4cdnc experiment running by different climate models were stored in the portals of Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) (e.g., https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/). Only three climate models (HadGEM2-ES, MIROC-ESM, and CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2) (Table 1) provided simulated daily temperature and precipitation data in the output of G4cdnc experiment in ESGF portals.

Table 1

Climate models used in this study

Model Institution Resolution (lon × lat level)
HadGEM2-ES Met Office Hadley Centre, UK 1.875° × 1.25°
MIROC-ESM AORI, NIES, JAMSTEC, Japan 2.8° × 2.8°
CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2 UNSW, Sydney, Australia 5.625° × 3.18°

Since these climate models have different spatial resolutions, in order to calculate the multi-model ensemble mean, all the simulation data from three climate models were interpolated to a grid resolution of 1° longitude × 1° latitude by using the ordinary Kriging interpolations. This is the standard routine for ensemble analysis of multiple climate models

3.2 Extreme climate indices

In this study, we used the ensemble mean of simulation data of the G4cdnc experiment by three climate models to examine evolution of climatic extreme events in the TP with/without MCB implementation. 13 climate indices (Table 2) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) [31] were utilized to comprehensively assess the temperature and precipitation extremes from 2030 to 2059 in the TP with/without MCB. We calculated 13 extreme indices in the TP under the two scenarios (RCP4.5 and MCB) during 2030–2059.

Table 2

Definition of climate extreme indices

Category Index Description Definition Unit
Warm temperature extremes SU Summer days Annual number of days when TX (daily maximum) >25°C Days
TXx Highest Tmax Annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature °C
TNx Highest Tmin Annual maximum value of daily minimum temperature °C
TX90p Warm days Number of days when TX (daily maximum) >90th percentile for historical 1970–1999 Days
TN90p Warm nights Number of days when TN (daily minimum) >90th percentile for historical 1970–1999 Days
Cold temperature extremes ID Ice days Annual number of days when TX (daily maximum) <0°C Days
TXn Lowest Tmax Annual minimum value of daily maximum temperature °C
TNn Lowest Tmin Annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature °C
TX10p Cold days Number of days when TX (daily maximum) <10th percentile for historical 1970–1999 Days
TN10p Cold nights Number of days when TN (daily minimum) <10th percentile for historical 1970–1999 Days
Precipitation extremes CDD Consecutive dry days Maximum number of consecutive days when precipitation <1 mm Days
CWD Consecutive wet days Maximum number of consecutive days when precipitation ≥1 mm Days
Rx5day Wettest consecutive five days Maximum of consecutive 5 days (cumulative) precipitation amount mm

TX: maximum temperature, TN: minimum temperature.

3.3 Standardized precipitation index (SPI)

The SPI is a drought index to measure the deficiency of precipitation on various monthly and multi-monthly time scales relative to its climatology [32]. On short timescales, the SPI is closely related to soil moisture, while at longer timescales, the SPI is related to groundwater and reservoir storage.

The Gamma distribution is used in SPI to calculate the probability distribution of precipitation time series. Its probability density function is defined as follows:

f ( x ) = 1 β α Γ ( α ) x α 1 e x β for x > 0 ,

where Γ ( α ) is the value of known gamma function Γ ( x ) at x = α . The parameters α and β can be estimated as follows:

α = 1 4 ln ( x ̄ ) 4 i ln ( x i ) n 1 + 1 + 4 ln ( x ̄ ) 4 i ln ( x i ) n 3 , β = x ̄ α ,

where { x i } is the precipitation time series at a given timescale and x ̄ is its mean. Then, we can calculate the cumulative probability of precipitation as follows:

P ( x < x 0 ) = 0 x 0 1 β α Γ ( α ) x α 1 e x β d x .

The inverse normal function, with mean zero and variance one, is applied to this cumulative probability, i.e., one finds a value z such that

P ( x < x 0 ) = 0 z 1 2 π e x 2 2 d x .

Then, the SPI value for precipitation x 0 is z . Based on the SPI, drought intensities can be classified into different grades (Table 3).

Table 3

Drought classification

SPI values Categorization
SPI −2.0 Extremely dry
−2.0 < SPI −1.5 Moderately dry
−1.5 < SPI −1.0 Dry
−1.0 < SPI < 1.0 Neutral
1.0 SPI < 1.5 Wet
1.5 SPI < 2.0 Moderately wet
2.0 SPI Extremely wet

3.4 Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test and a Sen’s slope estimator

To reveal evolution and mitigation of climate extreme events with/without MCB schemes, we used the combination of a nonparametric MK trend test and a Sen’s slope estimator to determine intensities and significance of temperature and precipitation extremes.

The MK test is to statistically assess whether a time series { x k } k = 1 n has a significance trend. Its statistic S is given by

S = k = 1 n 1 j = k + 1 n sgn ( x j x k ) ,

where

sgn ( x j x k ) = 1 , if x j x k > 0 0 , if x j x k = 0 1 , if x j x k < 0 .

If data are independent and randomly ordered, then S is distributed as a normal distribution with mean value 0 and variance n ( n 1 ) ( 2 n + 5 ) 18 . Combining this with statistical hypothesis testing, we can test whether a time series { x k } k = 1 n has a significance trend.

Sens’ slope estimator can be used to discover trends in a time series. It is superior to the linear regression since it is not affected by the number of outliers and data errors. For a time series { x k } k = 1 n , the slope estimator Q ij between x i and x j is

Q ij = ( x i x j ) i j for i = j + 1 , , n , j = 1 , 2 , , n 1 .

Sen’s slope of the whole time series { x k } k = 1 n is defined as the median value in the set { Q ij } .

4 Results

Although the MCB scheme can act rapidly to mitigate climate change with significant global mean temperature decreases [11], the benefits of MCB are likely to be widely varying spatially over the planet. Based on the ensemble mean of three climate models (HadGEM2-ES, MIROC-ESM, and CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2), we quantified impacts of the MCB scheme on mitigating the increasing trend of climate extremes in the TP.

4.1 Warm temperature extremes

Regardless of MCB’s intervention, the mean annual SU index (summer days) during 2030–2059 would reach 70 days only in the northern/southern edge of the plateau (Figure 1). With the increase in altitude, the SU index would quickly decrease to 0–10 days in the plateau interior. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the mean annual TXx index (maximum temperature) would be >5°C in the whole plateau and even reach 30°C at northern and southeastern edges (Figure 1). Under MCB implementation, the intensity of TXx was <0°C in the plateau interior and <20°C in almost the whole plateau (Figure 1). The cooling effects of MCB on TXx was significant, the decrease in TXx index would be 6–18°C. However, the MCB did not demonstrate evident cooling effects on TNx, the difference in TNx under two scenarios ranged from −2 to 4°C. The TX90p index (warm days) would be from 80 to 120 days under the RCP4.5 scenario, while it ranged from 50 to 80 days under MCB implementation (Figure 1). During 2030–2059, the mean annual TN90p index (warm nights) was predicted to be 100–140 days under RCP4.5 and 60–80 days under MCB implementation. Therefore, the MCB implementation demonstrated significant cooling effects on warm days/nights indices (TX90p, TN90p).

Figure 1 
                  Mean annual warm temperature extreme indices during 2030–2059 under RCP4.5 scenario, MCB scenario, and their difference.
Figure 1

Mean annual warm temperature extreme indices during 2030–2059 under RCP4.5 scenario, MCB scenario, and their difference.

Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the SU index (summer days) was predicted to have a significant increasing trend in the northern edge (>4 days/decade) and southeast (∼0.8 days/decade) of the plateau during 2030–2059 and have significant decreasing trends (−3.8 days/decade) in the northern plateau interior (Figure 2). Under MCB implementation, the SU index was predicted to significantly decrease in the Himalayan region (about 1.6 days/decade). Compared with the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB implementation could significantly mitigate the decreasing trend rate of SU index in the northern plateau interior (>4.5 days/decade) (Figure 2). The northern plateau interior, which is also referred to as Qiangtang grassland, is one of the five largest pastures and an ideal living area for rare animals in China. Since the northern plateau is cold, windy, and snowy for 8 or 9 months a year, mitigation of the decreasing trend rate of SU index through MCB implementation is crucial for environmental protection, biodiversity, and ecological restoration in Qiangtang grassland.

Figure 2 
                  Trend of annual warm temperature extreme indices under the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB scenario and their difference during 2030–2059, where stippling indicates statistically significant trends at α = 0.05.
Figure 2

Trend of annual warm temperature extreme indices under the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB scenario and their difference during 2030–2059, where stippling indicates statistically significant trends at α = 0.05.

Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the TXx index would show statistically significant increasing trends only in the northwest and southeast edges of the TP (2.8–3.2°C/decade). Under MCB implementation, the TXx index would show statistically significant trends only in some of the western part of the plateau interior (∼0.8°C/decade). Compared with the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB implementation could weaken slightly increasing trends in the southeast plateau but strengthen slightly increasing trends in the plateau interior (Figure 2). For the TNx index, MCB implementation could weaken cooling trends in the whole TP except for southeastern edge, but this trend is not statistically significant (Figure 2).

Under either the RCP4.5 scenario or the MCB implementation scenario, increasing trends in TX90p and TN90p indices in the whole TP would be statistically significant at the level α = 0.05 (Figure 2). Compared with the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB implementation could mitigate the increasing trend of the TX90p index over almost the whole plateau and the increasing trend of the TN90p index in the eastern plateau (∼0–9 days/decade).

4.2 Cold temperature extremes

Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the mean annual ID index (ice days) over the TP during 2030–2059 was predicted to range from about 60 days on the plateau periphery to 300 days in the plateau interior (Figure 3). Although the spatial pattern of the ID index under the MCB implementation scenario was very similar to an RCP4.5 scenario, it demonstrated the cooling effect on the whole TP, i.e., the ID index would decrease 30 days in the plateau interior and 80 days in the plateau periphery. The MCB implementation would be expected to have warming effects on mean annual TXn index (lowest Tmax) by 2–8°C during 2030–2059, especially the maximal increase would occur in the plateau interior (Figure 3). For the TNn index, when compared with RCP4.5 scenario, MCB implementation would decrease TNn by 0.5–1.5°C. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the mean annual TX10p index (cold days) during 2030–2059 would range from ∼10 days in the northeast to ∼20 days in the southwest. MCB implementation would increase the TX10p index over the whole plateau and range from ∼32 days on the southern plateau to ∼22 days on the northern plateau. For the mean annual TN10p index (cold nights) under both RCP4.5 and MCB scenarios, its spatial patterns would have no significant regional difference. MCB implementation would increase the mean annual TN10p index by about 12 days when compared with the RCP4.5 scenario (Figure 3).

Figure 3 
                  Mean annual cold temperature extreme indices during 2030–2059 under the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB scenario, and their difference.
Figure 3

Mean annual cold temperature extreme indices during 2030–2059 under the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB scenario, and their difference.

During 2030–2059, the ID index under the RCP4.5 scenario would show a significant decreasing trend over most of the plateau, ranging from −1.5 to −5 days/decade; especially, maximal warming trends would occur in the southeast plateau (Figure 4). Under MCB implementation, the ID index showed significant decreasing trends with −0.5 to −3.5 days/decade in the eastern and northern plateau, but the ID index in southwest region had no significant change. MCB implementation would mitigate the severe decreasing trends of the ID index except for the northern periphery of the plateau when compared with the RCP4.5 scenario (Figure 4).

Figure 4 
                  Trend of annual cold temperature extreme indices under the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB scenario, and their difference during 2030–2059, where stippling indicates statistically significant trends at α = 0.05.
Figure 4

Trend of annual cold temperature extreme indices under the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB scenario, and their difference during 2030–2059, where stippling indicates statistically significant trends at α = 0.05.

Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the TXn index (Lowest Tmax) would show statistically significant increasing trends with about 0.3–1.5°C/decade except for the northwestern and central parts of the plateau (Figure 4). Under MCB implementation, the TXn index would have slight increasing trends which are statistically insignificant. Comparing the MCB scenario with the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB implementation would weaken the increasing trend rate of the TXn index in most regions of the TP. The change ratio of the TNn index was similar to that of the TXn index. The TX10p index (cold days) and the TN10p (cold nights) in almost the whole TP would display statistically significant decreasing trends under both MCB and RCP4.5 scenarios, but MCB implementation would lead to more deceasing trends (Figure 4).

4.3 Precipitation extremes and drought

As the warm and humid air currents from the Indian ocean are blocked by Himalaya mountains, all precipitation extreme indices (CDD, CWD, and Rx5day) under the MCB implementation would have almost the same as those under the RCP4.5 scenario (Figure 5). During 2030 to 2059, the mean annual CDD index (consecutive dry days) would be about 30–50 days, while the mean annual CWD index (consecutive wet days) would be about 0–30 days. The mean annual Rx5day would reduce from 150 mm in the southern plateau to 30 mm in the northern plateau. Compared with the RCP4.5 scenario, in most regions of the plateau, MCB implementation would increase the CDD index by 0–6 days, decease the CWD index by 0–3 days and decrease the mean annual Rx5day index by 0–10 mm during 2030–2059, it means that the TP would become more drier under MCB implementation.

Figure 5 
                  Mean annual precipitation extreme indices during 2030–2059 under the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB scenario, and their difference.
Figure 5

Mean annual precipitation extreme indices during 2030–2059 under the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB scenario, and their difference.

During 2030–2059, the CDD index under the RCP4.5 scenario would demonstrate increasing trends in the southern region while decreasing trends in the northern region (Figure 6). The drought trend would be particularly severe in western Himalayas (about 2.5 days/decade). However, statistically significant trends in the CDD index would only occur in the northeastern region, ranging from about −3 days/decade in northern plateau to 1.5 days/decade in southern plateau. Under MCB implementation, most regions of the TP would only demonstrate slight trends. MCB implementation would mitigate the drought trend rates in the southern region but increase the drought trend rates in the northeastern region (Figure 6).

Figure 6 
                  Trend of annual precipitation extreme indices under the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB scenario, and their difference during 2030–2059, where stippling indicates statistically significant trends at α = 0.05.
Figure 6

Trend of annual precipitation extreme indices under the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB scenario, and their difference during 2030–2059, where stippling indicates statistically significant trends at α = 0.05.

During 2030–2059, the CWD index under the RCP4.5 scenario would have increasing trends in the eastern plateau (1–2 days/decade) and decreasing trends around Lhasa city (Figure 6). Under the MCB implementation scenario, increasing trends (about 2.5–3.5 days/decade) would occur in the Himalayas. MCB implementation would make the Himalayas wetter and the remaining regions dryer (Figure 6). For the Rx5day index (Wettest consecutive 5 days), the trends in most of the TP would not be statistically significant under either the RCP4.5 scenario or the MCB scenario, but MCB implementation would lead to obvious wetting effects in western Himalayas and drought effects around Lhasa city (Figure 6).

Finally, we used the SPI to assess drought frequency and intensity in the TP with/without MCB implementation. By taking 1970–1999 as the base period, the drought frequency over almost all the TP would be <20% under both the RCP4.5 and MCB scenarios (Figure 7), however, MCB implementation would significantly increase the area of the region with <10% drought frequency. Under both the RCP4.5 and MCB scenarios, during 2030−2059, the drought intensity index would range from −0.8 to −0.6 over most of the plateau, indicating that drought intensity would be mild. Compared with the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB implementation could significantly mitigate drought intensity in the eastern plateau and increase drought intensity in the west of Lhasa city (Figure 7).

Figure 7 
                  Mean annual SPI during 2030–2059 under the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB scenario, and their difference.
Figure 7

Mean annual SPI during 2030–2059 under the RCP4.5 scenario, MCB scenario, and their difference.

5 Discussion

Compared with the global air temperature of 1850–1900, the mean air temperature of 2001–2020 has risen by about 0.99°C (IPCC 2021). Reducing fossil fuel burning by using energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies in industries and agriculture is clearly the most direct approach to combat the ongoing change in global climate. The known Paris Agreement tried to limit the increase in the global mean temperature to less than 1.5°C/2.0°C. Given the lack of political will to do serious carbon emission reduction, it is far from enough to mitigate global warming [33]. The MCB scheme is expected to cool the Earth by deliberately adding more sea salt cloud condensation nuclei to low marine clouds. It provides an option to flatten the peaks of future climate change without significantly reducing carbon emissions and prevent the most catastrophic consequences at the same time. Since the MCB scheme can be implemented locally and has greater control and flexibility, it is prior to many schemes in climate engineering.

The TP is the world’s highest and largest plateau and holds the largest storage of freshwater outside the Arctic and the Antarctic regions. With the increase in local population and rapid economic development in recent decades, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau has shown a decline in ecosystem stability, severe land degradation, and increasing ecological and environmental disasters, leading to the continuous increase in the risk of climate disasters. The frequent occurrence of climate extreme events caused by global warming further exacerbates the risk level in the TP. At the same time, the TP holds the largest storage of freshwater outside the Arctic and the Antarctic regions and the sources of major rivers of Asia which provide crucial water resources to many Asian countries. The TP also affects Asia monsoons through temperature contrast between the TP and the Ocean. Therefore, it is urgently needed to find a suitable option to mitigate climate change impacts in the TP. Until now, impacts of MCB schemes and other climate engineering schemes on the TP are always ignored.

In this study, we examined impacts of MCB implementation on climatic extremes over the TP. By analyzing 13 climate extreme indices defined by the ETCCDI and SPI, it was found that MCB implementation would mitigate warming effects and drought effects in the TP:

  • Warm temperature extremes during 2030–2059: MCB implementation could decrease the intensities of the TXx, TX90p, and TN90p indices, but slightly increase SU and TNx indices. Moreover, MCB implementation would demonstrate statistically significant smaller increasing trend rates for TX90p and TN90p indices in most of the plateau.

  • Cold temperature extremes: MCB implementation would have cooling effects for the intensities of ID, TXn, TX10p, and TN10p indices. Moreover, MCB implementation would demonstrate statistically significant small decreasing trend rate for ID index and larger deceasing trend rate for TX10p and TN10p indices.

  • Precipitation extremes and drought: in most regions of the plateau, MCB implementation would increase the CDD index by 0–6 days, decease the CWD index by 0–3 days, and decrease the mean annual Rx5day index by 0–10 mm during 2030–2059, it means that the plateau would become more drier under MCB implementation. MCB implementation would significantly increase the area of the region with <10% drought frequency, and it would also significantly mitigate drought intensity in the eastern plateau and increase drought intensity in the west of Lhasa.

6 Conclusion

The TP is an extremely sensitive region to climate change. As an ecologically fragile region with the highest altitude in the Earth, the TP has grown warmer and wetter over recent decades, contributing to the occurrence of extreme climate events. It is urgently needed to find a suitable option to mitigate climate change impacts in the TP. The MCB scheme is designed to mitigate climate change through the increasing CDNC of low marine clouds to reflect some solar radiation back into space. Our study revealed that although the MCB is implemented over ocean only, it would cause significant changes on climate extremes in the TP which is very far from oceans and much higher than sea level. Especially, MCB implementation would decrease warm temperature extremes and have cooling effects on cold temperature extremes. Although MCB implementation would have no much impacts on precipitation extremes, it would significantly increase the area of the region with <10% drought frequency, and increase the drought intensity in the west of Lhasa city.

  1. Funding information: This research was funded by European Commission’s Horizon 2020 Framework Program No. 861584 and Taishan Distinguished Professorship Fund.

  2. Author contributions: Z.Z. and Y.Z. have equally contributed to this study.

  3. Conflict of interest: Authors state no conflict of interest.

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Received: 2022-05-07
Revised: 2023-04-03
Accepted: 2023-05-22
Published Online: 2023-09-29

© 2023 the author(s), published by De Gruyter

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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