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Characteristics of the present crustal deformation in the Tibetan Plateau and its relationship with strong earthquakes

  • Haiping Ma EMAIL logo , Hui Zhang , Minjuan Li , Shanyi Wu , Pengtao Wang , Qian Wang EMAIL logo , Jing Zhao EMAIL logo and Zhiqiang Ma
Published/Copyright: July 15, 2023
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Open Geosciences
From the journal Open Geosciences Volume 15 Issue 1

Abstract

To study the characteristics of the present crustal movement in the Tibetan Plateau and explore its relationship between strong earthquakes with magnitudes of 8 and above, the velocity field size was analyzed based on the global position system (GPS) campaign observations and the time series of site north-ward displacement and long baseline were discussed using the GPS continuous observations. The results show that the velocity field size in the Tibetan Plateau decreases from southwest to north, northeast, and southeast, and the value of the velocity in the west is significantly greater than that in the east in the same dimension. The maximum value is located in the southwest and the minimum value is located in the east. The Wenchuan earthquake is located in the mutation region, where the rate and the direction of the crustal movement are quite different. The crustal deformation extent is large in the region close to the seismic source before the earthquake, reflecting that the regional stress accumulation is fast and its required time is relatively short. However, the crustal deformation extent is relatively small in the region away from the seismic source before the earthquake, reflecting that the regional stress accumulation is slow and its required time is relatively long. The N-ward movement became significantly strong after Nepal M S 8.1 earthquake; the occurrence of this earthquake may have caused the unlocking of large-scale faults near the seismic source, which further intensified the NE-ward subduction and collision of the Indian Plate. The compression of the Indian Plate to the Tibetan Plateau slowed down after the 2008 Wenchuan M S 8.0 earthquake, and increased significantly after 2015, which boosted strain accumulation in the Tibetan Plateau, and attention needs to be paid continuously to strong earthquake risk in this region.

Keywords: GPS velocity; crustal motion; time series; strong earthquake

1 Introduction

Located in the southern part of the Asian continent and formed by the extrusion of the Indian Ocean plate and the Eurasian Plate, the Tibetan Plateau is the highest, largest, and youngest plateau, whose crustal thickness is about twice the normal crustal thickness and which is one of the regions with the strongest lithospheric deformation and the most concentrated earthquake activity in Asia and even in the world [1,2,3]. The Tibetan Plateau has been uplifting for the past two to three million years, whose strong uplift is the result of the direct collision and extrusion of the Indian Plate to the north and the Asian Plate [4]. Due to its vast territory, a large number of blocks, rapid uplift, thick crust, strong deformation, and complex internal tectonic activities, the Tibetan Plateau has always been a research hotspot for geographers and geophysicists all over the world to study its tectonic background, uplift causes, deformation characteristics, and dynamic mechanism. Abundant achievements have been made in studying crustal deformation characteristics in the Tibetan Plateau at home and abroad. Shen et al. studied the movement and deformation characteristics of the main fault zones on the southeastern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau [5]. Zuza et al. estimated the amount and rate of Cenozoic shortening at the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau [6]. Copley inferred two obvious normal fault seismic areas in the crust of the southeast edge of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau by using seismic activity, global position system (GPS), and gravity data [7]. The Tibetan Plateau is divided into five blocks structurally from south to north: the Lhasa block, the Qiangtang block, the Bayan Har block, the Qaidam block, and the Qilian block, which were separated by a huge suture zone in the near east–west direction [8,9,10,11,12].

GPS observation can provide the relative movement information of the crust in various spatial scales. Thus, it is widely used in seismic geology and earthquake prediction. Moreover, the density and accuracy of the velocities make it possible to better quantify the crustal deformation characteristic [13]. Previous research on present crustal movements in Tibetan Plateau using GPS campaign data has mainly focused on the change state of velocity field and strain rate field, which has supported a series of studies on the relationship between active blocks, deformation mechanisms of the Tibetan Plateau, strain fields, and strong earthquakes processes [5,11,14,15,16,17,18]. Other researchers conducted GPS time series analysis of the dynamic change of the time process of crustal movement based on the GPS continuous observation results, including GPS station time series analysis and baseline time series between GPS stations, analyzed the state of crustal movement before the occurrence of moderately strong earthquakes, and discussed the relationship between the characteristics [12,19,20,21,22]. However, the relationship between the current crustal movement and the large earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater is still lacking.

In this paper, the velocity field in the study area was analyzed based on the GPS campaign observation data of the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau from 1999 to 2016. The displacement variation of GPS stations and the baseline variation of extension between stations were analyzed using the GPS continuous observation data. Besides, the characteristics and dynamic changes of crustal movement in the Tibetan Plateau were studied, and the relationship between the temporal and spatial variation of crustal movement and strong earthquakes was discussed. The innovational work include (1) the most densely distributed velocity field of the crust movement in mainland China and its surrounding areas and the latest GPS continuous observation data used to illustrate the motion characteristics of the study area, (2) the method for evaluating the N-direction displacement using the GPS data from large-scale continuous stations, and (3) the state of crustal movement before the occurrence of moderately strong earthquakes and its relations of the strong earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 and above. The results can provide a reference for determining the dangerous locations of strong earthquakes and importance for mitigating seismic geo-hazards.

2 Study area, GPS data, and methodology

2.1 Study area

The Tibetan Plateau and its marginal areas are the high occurrence areas of large earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7. The seismogenic structures of these are the large strike slip faults at the boundaries of active blocks, the reverse faults of the crustal shortening at the front of the active blocks, and the normal faults with locally spreading in the trailing edge of active blocks (Figure 1), indicating that the seismicity of the Tibetan Plateau is closely related to the block movement. The blocks are tectonic units with different sizes, motion states and strain states inside the Plate, which are formed from the division of plates by tectonic faults or fault zones. The Tibetan Plateau is divided into five active blocks including the Qilian block, Qaidam block, Bayan Har block, Qiangtang block, and Lhasa block [9].

Figure 1 The spatial distribution of active-tectonic blocks of Tibetan Plateau and the historical strong earthquakes (The red circles are the earthquakes above magnitude 7 since 1900.).
Figure 1

The spatial distribution of active-tectonic blocks of Tibetan Plateau and the historical strong earthquakes (The red circles are the earthquakes above magnitude 7 since 1900.).

2.2 GPS data

According to the observation mode, GPS measurements can be divided into continuous observation and campaign observation modes. The continuous observation mode refers to the installation of GPS equipment on the permanent ground stations, and the data are continuously stored in the receiver storage device or transmitted back to the data center through a network. The main output is GPS time series results. However, the campaign observation adopted the mode of multi-stage retest at certain time intervals (generally longer than a year) on the permanent ground station, and each observation phase is generally approximately 96 h. The main output is the GPS velocity field results. The models of GPS observation equipment are shown in Table 1. Before 2009, the receiver and antenna models of campaign observation and continuous observation modes are the same, the receiver model is ASHTECH Z-XII3, and the antenna model is ASH701945B_M. However, the receiver model of the campaign observation mode after 2009 is mainly TPS NET-G3A, and the antenna model is mainly TPSCR.G3. The receiver model for the continuous observation mode after 2009 is mainly TRIMBLE NETR9 and the antenna model is mainly TRM59800.00. The campaign observation mode ensures the spatial resolution of the crustal deformation research. Although the spatial resolution of the continuous observation mode is low, it makes up for the insufficient temporal resolution of campaign observation and reflects the temporal dynamic process of crustal deformation objectively [12,23].

Table 1

Models of GPS observation equipment

Observation method Receiver Antenna Observing session
Campaign ASHTECH Z-XII3 ASH701945B_M Before 2009
TPS NET-G3A TPSCR.G3 After 2009
Continuous ASHTECH Z-XII3 ASH701945B_M Before 2009
TRIMBLE NETR9 TRM59800.00 After 2009

The GPS velocity field data used in this paper come from the literature [15], which are gathered GPS data from Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) I and II, and more data are added from densified regional campaign GPS networks and regional continuous GPS sites located in seismically active areas. To better analyze the dynamic changes of the crustal deformation in the Tibetan Plateau before earthquakes of magnitude above 8 since GPS observation, 26 GPS continuous sites from CMONOC I established by the Chinese Government were selected to study the site displacement and baseline. Velocity field data processing adopted a unified strategy to process or reprocess all raw GPS data using GAMIT [24]. Besides, approximately 100 globally distributed International GPS Service (IGS) sites are incorporated in data processing. Finally, the results of the same day are combined using GLOBK [25].

The GPS continuous data used in this paper were adopted using GAMIT/GLOBK and QOCA software [24,25,26,27], as well as the site coordinate time series results under the ITRF2014 reference framework processed by combining with the IGS sites around the Chinese Mainland [28]. For the parameter setting of the reference stations, loosely constrained algorithms are used for the station positions in the processing of GAMIT software; the value of the constraint is 50 mm. In the adjustment with GLOBK software, 75 reference stations from two global networks are selected to estimate the GPS coordinates and covariance with respect to the IGS14 frame [28,29]. The station motion model is established. To reduce the interference of periodic signals in the identification of time series anomaly information, the single-site time series are all the results after removing the period, correcting the earthquake events, replacing the instruments, and the step caused by unknown reasons. The methods are in accordance with the literature [28,30].

2.3 Methodology

GPS velocity field can reflect the crustal relative movement and deformation directly and clearly [31,32]. When the crustal movement and deformation are analyzed in a region, the rigid motion without deformation will be removed in the study area generally. The South China block is the largest relatively stable block on the Chinese Mainland. When the movement and deformation of the Tibetan Plateau are used by GPS data, taking the stable South China block as the reference datum is the best choice [33,34,35,36].

Time series analysis of GPS sites can study the position time series of continuous GPS sites. Due to this, the microdynamic change information of crustal movement can be extracted and the accurate movement trend of sites can be obtained [21,37,38,39]. The baseline time series between GPS stations refers to using the data of two GPS continuous stations to calculate the time-varying curve of the distance between them. The time series of the baselines can directly reflect the shortening or elongation of the crust between two GPS stations and can be used to describe the extension, compression, and strike-slip characteristics of the blocks spanned [22,40,41,42,43,44,45,46].

3 The characteristics of regional horizontal movement in the Tibetan Plateau

This article discussed the results of the GPS velocity field relative to the South China block based on the velocity field results of the ITRF2008 reference framework [15]. Figure 2 shows the GPS velocity field from 1999 to 2016 and the block boundary of the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas. From the velocity field results relative to the South China block, it can be seen that because the south of the Tibetan Plateau is affected by NE-ward compression of the Indian Plate and resisted by three rigid blocks of Alashan, Ordos, and South China in the northeast and east, and also of the Tarim Basin in the northwest, Figure 2 shows that the size and direction of the velocity field of Tibetan Plateau are significantly different from the southwest to the north, northeast, east, and southeast.

Figure 2 GPS velocity field for the investigated area spanning the 1999–2016 interval.
Figure 2

GPS velocity field for the investigated area spanning the 1999–2016 interval.

Figure 2 shows that the velocity values of the Tibetan Plateau ranging from 36–40 mm/a in the southwest Tibetan Plateau to 6–8 mm/a in the southeast border of the Tarim basin and 11–25 mm/a in the southwest border of the Tarim basin, to 3–7 mm/a in the southeast border of the Alashan block, to 0.2–2 mm/a in the west boundary of the Ordos block, to 0.3–1.9 mm/a in the west boundary of South China. The characteristic of velocity field size is that it decreases gradually from southwest to north, northeast, and southeast in the study area, and the velocity value in the west is significantly greater than that in the east in the same dimension. Compared with the northwest boundary of the Tibetan Plateau, the velocity values are quite different on both sides of the northeast boundary, the east boundary, and the southeast boundary of the Tibetan Plateau. Because the region with large far-field velocity and small near-field velocity is easy to accumulate strain energy, this kind of region is easy to generate an earthquake.

On the other hand, the motion vector direction of the Tibetan Plateau changes from the near NS-ward in the southwest to NW-ward in the northwest relative to the South China block. East of the E90° takes NE-ward, and the movement tends to be a bifurcate horizontal expansion in the east margin of the Tibetan Plateau, which shows as the anticlockwise rotating Gan Qing vortex and clockwise rotating Yunnan–Tibet vortex [47,48]. This kind of rotation is more obvious and intense in the south than that in the north. The direction of the motion vector is from west to east and from south to north in the northern region (E90–E104°, N34–40°), which shows NEE-NE-NNE-NS-NNW-NW-ward in general, showing an anticlockwise rotating tendency. The direction of the motion vector is from west to east and from north to south in the southern region (E90–E104°, N21–34°), which shows NNE-NE-EW-SEE-SE-S-SW-SWW-ward in general, showing a clockwise rotating tendency. According to previous studies, the mutation region, where the velocity and direction of the crustal movement are quite different in the eastern and northeastern margins of the Tibetan Plateau, was an abnormal region of crustal deformation, and it was also a region with stress accumulation and the earthquake might happen here [47].

4 The North-ward displacement time series of GPS continuous sites

As shown in Figure 3, the GPS continuous sites in the interior and boundary of the Tibetan block are LHAS, KMIN, XIAG, LUZH, DLHA, DXIN, XNIN, XIAA, and YANC. Due to the serious interference of XNIN and XIAA, they were not analyzed in this paper. Figure 4 shows the results of the north-ward displacement time series of the remaining seven sites. When tracking and analyzing the time series of GPS coordinates of a single site, the time series graphs of Figure 4 all removed the linearity to highlight the dynamic information. Table 2 shows the movement rates of these seven sites in different periods.

Figure 3 GPS continuous station and baselines from the Indian Plate to Tibetan Plateau.
Figure 3

GPS continuous station and baselines from the Indian Plate to Tibetan Plateau.

Figure 4 The north-ward displacement detrend time series of GPS continuous site: (a) LHAS, (b) KMIN, (c) XIAG, (d) LUZH, (e) DLHA, (f) DXIN, and (g) YANC.
Figure 4

The north-ward displacement detrend time series of GPS continuous site: (a) LHAS, (b) KMIN, (c) XIAG, (d) LUZH, (e) DLHA, (f) DXIN, and (g) YANC.

Table 2

The north-ward displacement rates of GPS continuous sites in Figure 4

Station Rate (mm/a）
Jan. 1, 2002–Dec. 30, 2005 Dec. 31, 2005–May 12, 2008 May 13, 2008–Jan. 1, 2013 Jan. 2, 2013–Apr. 25, 2015 Jan. 1, 2017–May. 19, 2021
LHAS −0.10 ± 0.04 1.54 ± 0.09 0.67 ± 0.05 −3.30 ± 0.01 −1.17 ± 0.05
KMIN −3.99 ± 0.07 −0.80 ± 0.07 4.26 ± 0.05 −2.56 ± 0.09 1.58 ± 0.04
XIAG −4.19 ± 0.07 3.43 ± 0.04 0.40 ± 0.05 −0.43 ± 0.02 0.63 ± 0.06
LUZH −1.74 ± 0.05 −0.81 ± 0.08 0.79 ± 0.03 0.17 ± 0.07 0.60 ± 0.04
DLHA −0.87 ± 0.04 −0.13 ± 0.09 0.55 ± 0.03 1.45 ± 0.08 1.63 ± 0.04
DXIN −0.53 ± 0.03 0.19 ± 0.07 −0.73 ± 0.04 0.07 ± 0.01 1.11 ± 0.03
YANC −1.35 ± 0.03 −0.84 ± 0.05 0.03 ± 0.03 −0.36 ± 0.06 0.78 ± 0.03

Among the seven GPS sites mentioned above, the site LHAS is located at the south Tibetan block, KMIN, XIAG, and LUZH are located at the southeastern boundary of the Tibetan block, and DLHA, YANC, and DXIN are located at the northeast Tibetan Plateau. The movement trend of the three regional sites is similar: there were turning changes before both the 2008 Wenchuan M S 8.0 earthquake and the 2015 Nepal M S 8.1 earthquake. Since the observation start time of CMONOC phase Ⅰ is close to the 2001 West Kunlun Mountains M S 8.1 earthquake, the trend before the earthquake could not be judged well; it was not analyzed in this article. In Figure 4(a)–(d), the N-ward time series curves of LHAS, KMIN, XIAG, and LUZH tend to go down from 2002 to 2005, and the downward trend changes from 2005 to May 12, 2008 (occurred the Wenchuan earthquake). Before the Wenchuan earthquake, in which the trend of LHAS and XIAG changes from downward to upward, the movement rates before the turning are −0.10 ± 0.04 and −4.19 ± 0.07 mm/a and after the turning are 1.54 ± 0.09 and 3.43 ± 0.04 mm/a, respectively. Also, the downward trend of KMIN and LUZH obviously slows down; the movement rates before the slowing down are −3.99 ± 0.07 and −1.74 ± 0.05 mm/a and after the slowing down are −0.80 ± 0.07 and −0.81 ± 0.08 mm/a, respectively. The changing range of LUZH rates near the Wenchuan epicenter is relatively small among the four sites, and the changing range of KMIN, LHAS, and XIAG, which are far from the Wenchuan epicenter, are all relatively large. In Figure 4(e)–(g), the north-ward time series curves of DLHA, DXIN, and YANC tend to go down from 2002 to 2005, and the downward trend changes from 2005 to May 12, 2008, before the Wenchuan earthquake, showing that the downward trend tends to be slow down, the movement rates before the slowing down are −0.87 ± 0.04, −0.53 ± 0.03, and −1.35 ± 0.03 mm/a, and after the slowing down are −0.13 ± 0.09, 0.19 ± 0.07, and −0.84 ± 0.05 mm/a, respectively. It can be seen from the velocity field diagram in Figure 2 that the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake is located in the northeast corner of the outermost circle of the clockwise rotating Yunnan Tibet vortex from west to east in the south of the Tibetan Plateau, and LHAS, KMIN, XIAG, and LUZH are all located in the clockwise rotating Yunnan Tibet vortex. From the perspective of power sources, they were more related to the seismogenic of the Wenchuan earthquake. Therefore, the abnormal changes are obviously larger than those sites of DLHA, YANC, and DXIN in the northeast.

As can be seen in Figure 4(b)–(d), the north-ward time series curves of KMIN, XIAG, and LUZH tended to rise after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and fall down about two years before the Nepal earthquake on April 24, 2015, and the movement rates changed from 4.26 ± 0.05, 0.40 ± 0.05, and 0.79 ± 0.03 to −2.56 ± 0.09, −0.43 ± 0.02, and 0.17 ± 0.07 mm/a, respectively, indicating that the north-direction motion slowed down before the Nepal earthquake. The changes in site LHAS were unable to be analyzed due to the data missing in Figure 4(a) before the Nepal earthquake. As can be seen in Figure 4(e)–(g), the north-ward time series curves of DLHA, DXIN, and YANC showed no trend turning change before the Nepal earthquake. Therefore, the abnormal range of the Nepal earthquake before the earthquake was still in the southwest margin of the Tibetan Plateau, and there were not enough sites in the south margin to determine the abnormal condition before the earthquake. It can be seen from Figure 4 that the GPS continuous sites KMIN, XIAG, LUZH, DLHA, DXIN, and YANC in the interior and boundary of the Tibetan block are turning upward in the time curves in the last five years at least, and their movement rates are 1.58 ± 0.04, 0.63 ± 0.06, 0.60 ± 0.04, 1.63 ± 0.04, 1.11 ± 0.03, and 0.78 ± 0.03 mm/a, showing that the north-ward movement is significantly enhanced, which needs to be focused on.

5 The GPS baseline time series

The calculation result of a single station has a systemic influence such as a reference frame [49,50,51]; thus, to reduce this influence, the characteristics of crustal deformation of the Tibetan Plateau for nearly 20 years are analyzed in this article through the baseline time series method by selecting GPS continuous observation stations on the Indian Plateau and different blocks of the Tibetan Plateau. The research results have certain reference significance for the studies and evaluations of the strong earthquake activities in the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding areas.

Figure 3 shows the seven baselines from the GPS station named IISC in the Indian Plate to seven GPS stations as TASH, WUSH, DXIN, DLHA, LHAS, YANC, and XIAG in or around the Tibetan Plateau (where the stations of WUSH, DXIN, and YANC are located in the stable blocks; however, others are located in the active blocks). The crustal deformation characteristics of the Tibetan Plateau under the pushing effect of the Indian Plate since 1999 are analyzed via the detrended baselines time series, which are shown in Figures 5 and 6. Table 2 shows the statistics of the baseline rate, the annual variation ratio (AVR), and the changes of turning in Figures 5 and 6. The baseline is in a shortened state while the rate value in the table is negative.

Figure 5 The GPS detrend baseline time series: (a) IISC-WUSH, (b) IISC-DXIN, and (c) IISC-YANC.
Figure 5

The GPS detrend baseline time series: (a) IISC-WUSH, (b) IISC-DXIN, and (c) IISC-YANC.

Figure 6 The GPS detrend baseline time series: (a) IISC-DLHA, (b) IISC-LHAS, (c) IISC-TASH, and (d) IICS-XIAG.
Figure 6

The GPS detrend baseline time series: (a) IISC-DLHA, (b) IISC-LHAS, (c) IISC-TASH, and (d) IICS-XIAG.

In Figure 5, baselines IISC-WUSH, IISC-DXIN, and IISC-YANC are the three baselines from Bangalore, India, to the western boundary of the Tarim Basin, the Alexa block, and the Ordos block, respectively. Table 2 shows that their shortening rates are −20.24 ± 0.01, −34.70 ± 0.01, and −33.21 ± 0.01 mm/a, and the AVR is −18.05 × 10−7/a, −28.85 × 10−7/a, and −27.99 × 10−7/a, respectively; the rate values are all negative, indicating that the baselines are all shortened. Figure 5(a)–(c) show that the baseline shortening rate has changed a little in recent 20 years, indicating that the pushing rate of the Indian Plate to the north of the Tibetan Plateau is relatively stable, which may be related to the location of the GPS station in the three baselines, the movement of the station WUSH is blocked by the Junggar Basin, and DXIN and YANC are located in rigid blocks.

Table 2 shows that the shortening rates of baseline IISC-DLHA, IISC-LHAS, IISC-TASH, and IISC-XIAG are −27.29 ± 0.01, −11.22 ± 0.01, −28.14 ± 0.01, and −35.30 ± 0.01 mm/a, respectively, and the AVR are −13.83 × 10−7/a and −6.60 × 10−7/a, −14.20 × 10−7/a and −13.87 × 10−7/a respectively, and the rate values are all negative, indicating that the baselines are all shortened.

As seen from from Figure 6(a) and (b), the time series curves of the baseline IISC-DLHA and IISC-LHAS fall rapidly from 1999 to 2005. From 2005 to the Wenchuan earthquake, the downward trend of baseline IISC-DLHA turns to be slow and the trend of baseline IISC-LHAS turns to go up; they all reflect that the crustal shortening rate slowed down about three years before the Wenchuan earthquake. The slowdown rate of the baseline IISC-LHAS is more obvious, which may be related to the strain accumulation to a certain extent before the Wenchuan earthquake.

It can be seen from Figure 6(a)–(d) and Table 2 the four baselines IISC-DLHA, IISC-LHAS, IISC-TASH, and IISC-XIAG changed after the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The upward trend of baseline IISC-DLHA slows down, and the trend of baseline IISC-LHAS, IISC-TASH, and IISC-XIAG turns to go down; they all indicate that the crustal shortening rate accelerated after the 2015 Nepal earthquake, which may reflect the adjustment of the Indian Plate compression movement after the Nepal earthquake.

The last column of data in Table 2 is the absolute value of the shortening rate in the two periods of the seven baselines in Figure 3: the absolute value of the rate after the 2015 Nepal M S 8.1 earthquake minus the absolute value of the rate between the 2008 Wenchuan M S 8.0 earthquake and the 2015 Nepal M S 8.1 earthquake. Figure 5 and Table 2 both show that the first three baselines IISC-WUSH, IISC-DXIN, and IISC-YANC have relatively small changes, with absolute differences of 0.94, 0.12, and 0.18, respectively. Figure 6 and Table 2 show that baselines IISC-DLHA, IISC-TASH, and IISC-XIAG have significant turning changes before and after the Nepal earthquake, and the absolute difference has also significantly increases, with values of 1.02, 2.54, and 1.64. Baseline IISC-LHAS has been in the state of shortening acceleration before and after the Nepal earthquake, so its absolute difference is small, at 0.24. The site LHAS is closer to the epicenter of Nepal than other sites, and the rate change of the baseline IISC-LHAS is the smallest after the earthquake, which may indicate that the area near the site LHAS is in a significant invariant zone in the dynamic adjustment process caused by the large earthquake, and where a certain degree of strain has accumulated [22].

It can be seen from Figure 3 that baselines IISC-DLHA and IISC-LHAS are in the same northeast-ward. DLHA and LHAS are located in the northeast and south margins of the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. The annual motion rate of baseline IISC-DLHA is significantly larger than that of baseline IISC-LHAS, indicating that there is significant deformation in the interior of the Tibetan Plateau, and it promotes the strong earthquakes to be bred and occurred in Bayan Har and its surrounding blocks.

6 Discussion

The energy of earthquake preparation comes from the accumulation of strain energy, which is generated in the process of crustal movement under the dynamic action of the tectonic boundary [52]. The generation and preparation of earthquakes lead to crustal deformation directly. Therefore, earthquakes are the result of long-term accumulation and sudden release of energy in the process of crustal movement [53]. GPS observation can provide relative motion information of various spatial scales, so these observation results are widely used to study the relationship between the temporal and spatial distribution dynamics of crustal movement and strong earthquakes, the deformation process and mechanism of earthquakes, etc., which can provide a reference for the judgment and exploration of danger sites of a strong earthquake. It may become an important aspect of the expansion of earthquake prediction research to physical prediction.

6.1 Significant difference in the area of crustal movement

Strong earthquakes usually occur in regions with significant differences in crustal movement, that is, the regions with significant differences in vector size and direction of motion velocity. Only the difference in crustal movement can produce strain accumulation. When the regional crustal movement is consistent, it will not produce strain accumulation, and its strong earthquake risk is not high [54]. According to the results of recent research, almost 100% of strong earthquakes of magnitude 8 and 80% of strong earthquakes of magnitude above 7 are located in the boundary of the block in the Chinese Mainland (Figure 1) [55]. The active block can produce movement and deformation relatively under the dynamic action caused by compression between plates and intraplate mantle convection. The velocity and direction of crustal movement in the eastern and northeastern margins of the Tibetan Plateau are quite different, which is an abnormal region of crustal deformation and a frequent occurrence of strong earthquakes. It can be seen from Figure 2 that the seismic source of the Wenchuan earthquake is located in the eastern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau, which is the lowest velocity region of the whole Tibetan Plateau.

6.2 Seismogenic process of near-field and far-field and post-earthquake influence

Four to five years before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the seven GPS continuous stations in the interior and boundary of the Tibetan Plateau block all have abnormal changes. Compared with the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau [Figure 4(e)–(g)], the abnormal variation range of the sites in the southern and southwestern margins was obviously larger [Figure 4(a)–(d)]. The sites in the southern Tibetan Plateau experienced an abnormal change and tended to go down during the two years before the 2015 Nepal earthquake [Figure 4(b)–(d)]. It reflects that the stress accumulation was fast and the required time of accumulation was relatively short in the region of the seismic source area close to the seismic source that the power source needed for earthquake preparation. However, when the power source was far away from the seismic source area, the stress accumulation was slow and took relatively a long time.

The north-ward movement of the Tibetan Plateau block became significantly stronger after the 2015 Nepal M S 8.1 earthquake (Figure 4 and Table 2). The earthquake may have resulted in the unlocking of large-scale faults near the seismic source area, and the plate subduction and collision would be further intensified. Therefore, over the long term, the northeast-ward subduction and collision of the Indian Plate show an accelerating trend, which promotes the strain accumulation inside of the Tibetan Plateau, and attention needs to be paid continuously to the strong earthquake risk in this region.

6.3 Influence of deformation difference

The crustal deformation state and strong earthquake activity of the Chinese Mainland are closely related to the dynamic process of plate boundary. Because the GPS observation has a unified reference framework, it, which crosses the plate boundary, can effectively identify the dynamic process of the above boundary. From 1999 to 2019, Ma thought that the AVR of baseline DXIN-LHAS (located between site DXIN in the Alashan block and site LHAS in the Lhasa block) was 5.6 times that of the baseline DXIN-DLHA (located between site DXIN in the Alashan block and site DLHA in the Qaidam block) and the AVR of the baseline YANC-LHAS (located between site YANC in Ordos block and site LHAS in Lhasa block) was 7.4 times that of the baseline YANC-DLHA (located between site YANC in Ordos block and site DLHA in the Qaidam block) [56]. Due to the above evidence, they showed that the AVR between the Lhasa block and two rigid blocks of Alashan and Ordos was significantly faster than that between the Qaidam block and two rigid blocks of Alashan and Ordos, indicating that the internal deformation of the Qiangtang block and the Bayan Har block between LHAS-DLHA was strong relatively. Combined with the time series results of site and baseline in this paper (Figures 4 and 5 and 6, and Table 3), it can be found that the characteristics of shortening enhanced features between the Indian Plate and the Tibetan Plateau block have been obvious since 2015, which may reflect that the northeast movement of the Tibetan Plateau continues to strengthen under the compression of the Indian Plate.

Table 3

The rates and AVR of GPS baselines in Figure 2

Baseline Rate (mm/a） AVR (10−7/a) Rate (mm/a） Rate (mm/a） Absolute difference
1999–2020 1999–2020 ① ② ①–②
IISC-WUSH −20.24 ± 0.01 −18.05 −20.833 ± 0.03 −19.896 ± 0.03 0.94
IISC-DXIN −34.70 ± 0.01 −28.85 −34.397 ± 0.02 −34.514 ± 0.03 0.12
IISC-YANC −33.21 ± 0.01 −27.99 −32.897 ± 0.02 −33.076 ± 0.02 0.18
IISC-DLHA −27.29 ± 0.01 −13.83 −26.213 ± 0.02 −27.235 ± 0.02 1.02
IISC-LHAS −11.22 ± 0.01 −6.60 −11.930 ± 0.03 −12.173 ± 0.03 0.24
IISC-TASH −28.14 ± 0.01 −14.20 −27.532 ± 0.02 −30.069 ± 0.07 2.54
IISC-XIAG −35.30 ± 0.01 −13.87 −34.300 ± 0.05 −35.943 ± 0.07 1.64

AVR, the annual variation ratio. ① From 2008 Wenchuan M S 8.0 Earthquake to 2015 Nepal M S 8.1 earthquake, and ② after 2015 Nepal M S 8.1 earthquake.

6.4 Identification of the uncoordinated regions in the process of large earthquake adjustment

The 2008 Wenchuan M S 8.0 earthquake and the 2013 Lushan M S 7.0 earthquake occurred in the significant invariant zone (strain energy accumulation area) in the dynamic adjustment process caused by the 2001 Kunlun Mountain M S 8.1 earthquake and the 2004 Sumatra M S 9.0 earthquake [22]. Although there may be a phenomenon that the Indian Plate’s pushing effect on the Tibetan plateau after the 2015 Nepal M S 8.1 earthquake is enhanced from a large-scale perspective (Figure 4), which also reflects the internal deformation enhancement of the Tibetan Plateau. We need to use other data and methods to find the invariant zone in adjustment or the area with high locking characteristics from a small-scale perspective, to determine the specific risk area.

7 Conclusions

The results of the velocity field show that the velocity field of the Tibetan Plateau decreases from southwest to north, northeast, and southeast, and the velocity value in the west is significantly greater than that in the east in the same dimension. The maximum value is about 40 mm/a in the southwest margin, and the minimum value is about 0.2 mm/a in the east margin. The direction of the motion vector changes from NS-ward in the southeast to NW-ward in the northwest, the east of E90° turns into the NE direction, and the movement tends to be a bifurcate horizontal expansion in the east margin of the Tibetan Plateau, which shows anticlockwise rotating of Gan Qing vortex and clockwise rotating of Yunnan–Tibet vortex (Figure 2). The eastern and northeastern margins of the Tibetan Plateau are the mutation regions with great differences in the velocity and direction of crustal movement, and they are the areas of stress accumulation and the areas where earthquakes may occur.

The results of the north-ward displacement detrend time series (Figure 4 and Table 2) of GPS continuous sites show that the 7 GPS continuous sites of LHAS, KMIN, XIAG, LUZH, DLHA, DXIN, and YANC in the interior and boundary of the Tibetan Plateau block all had abnormal changes before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, showing a downward trend from 2002 to 2005 and the downward tendency became slow or changed upward from 2005 to the occurrence of the earthquake. In addition, the variation range of the sites in the southern part of the Tibetan Plateau was obviously larger than that in the other areas, and the southern sites of the Tibetan Plateau tendency changed abnormally and decreased in the two years before the Nepal earthquake. The continuous GPS sites of KMIN, XIAG, DLHA, LUZH, YANC, and DXIN in the interior and boundary of the Tibetan block have shown a significant increase in the north-ward movement in at least five years.

The results of the site’s baseline detrend time series (Figures 5 and 6, Table 3) show that the movement rate of the Indian Plate relative to the rigid block on the edge of the Tibetan Plateau was relatively stable. Under the influence of the 2008 Wenchuan M S 8.0 earthquake, the movement of the Indian Plate relative to the Tibetan Plateau had been changed from 2008 to 2015, showing as the compression slowed down. The compression of the India plate against the NE-ward of the Tibetan Plateau was significantly stronger than it was 7 years ago after 2015, and the enhancement promoted the preparation and occurrence of strong earthquakes in west China.

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to the First Monitoring and Application Center, China Earthquake Administration for providing the time series data of GPS continuous stations, to Dr. Yanqiang Wu, Dr. Hongbao Liang, and Dr. Wei Zhan for the support in the calculating process of the time series, and to Mr. Xiaowei Xu for his contribution to language editing. The authors also appreciate the editors and reviewers for their detailed and valuable comments and suggestions.

  1. Funding information: This work was funded by Spark Program of Earthquake Sciences (XH21035Y), the Special Fund for Innovation Team, Gansu Earthquake Agency (Grant No. 2020TD-01-01), the Science and Technology Project of Gansu Province (20JR10RA502), Spark Program of Earthquake Sciences (XH22039D, XH20057), Grant of NSFC (51778590, 41904092), and the Earthquake Tracking Task of CEA (2021010213, 2020010211, 2018010204).

  2. Author Contributions: Conceptualization: Haiping Ma, and Qian Wang. Methodology” Haiping Ma and Jing Zhao. Analysis” Haiping Ma, Jing Zhao, Hui Zhang and Minjuan Li. Investigation: Haiping Ma, Hui Zhang, Qian Wang, Jing Zhao and Shanyi Wu. Data processing: Haiping Ma, Hui Zhang, Pengtao Wang and Jing Zhao. Writing - original draft preparation: Haiping Ma, Hui Zhang, Jing Zhao, Qian Wang, Minjuan Li, Pengtao Wang and Shanyi Wu. Writing - revised draft preparation: Haiping Ma, Qian Wang, Jing Zhao and Zhigiang Ma. Project administration: Haiping Ma and Qian Wang. Funding acquisition: Haiping Ma and Qian Wang.

  3. Conflicts of interest: The authors declare that they have no competing interest.

  4. Data availability statement: All data included in this study are available upon request by contact with the corresponding author.

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Received: 2021-07-20
Revised: 2022-05-05
Accepted: 2022-06-22
Published Online: 2023-07-15

© 2022 the author(s), published by De Gruyter

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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  123. IG-YOLOv5-based underwater biological recognition and detection for marine protection
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  129. Scientometric analysis of flood forecasting for Asia region and discussion on machine learning methods
  130. Rainfall-induced transportation embankment failure: A review
  131. Rapid Communication
  132. Branch fault discovered in Tangshan fault zone on the Kaiping-Guye boundary, North China
  133. Technical Note
  134. Introducing an intelligent multi-level retrieval method for mineral resource potential evaluation result data
  135. Erratum
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  137. Addendum
  138. The relationship between heat flow and seismicity in global tectonically active zones
  139. Commentary
  140. Improved entropy weight methods and their comparisons in evaluating the high-quality development of Qinghai, China
  141. Special Issue: Geoethics 2022 - Part II
  142. Loess and geotourism potential of the Braničevo District (NE Serbia): From overexploitation to paleoclimate interpretation
https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2022-0387
Keywords for this article
GPS velocity; crustal motion; time series; strong earthquake
Creative Commons
BY 4.0

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