Risk assessment process for the Iraqi petroleum sector

Noor Abdulsattar Abduljabbar; Hatem Khaleefah Breesam

doi:10.1515/jmbm-2022-0018

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Risk assessment process for the Iraqi petroleum sector

Noor Abdulsattar Abduljabbar and Hatem Khaleefah Breesam

Published/Copyright: October 5, 2022

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From the journal Journal of the Mechanical Behavior of Materials Volume 31 Issue 1

Abstract

Risk management is important for project success as risks in petroleum projects must be minimized to achieve the goals of production. Risk management composes of planning, identification, analysis, and response, which is an important phase. Controlling risks gains the projects the capability to overcome the uncertainty and thus effectively produce the targeted quantities. In this study, four types of risks have been examined in the oil field, and the Iraqi oil exploration company has been taken as a case study. These four types of risks are operational, financial and administrative, economic and political, and potential risks. The effect of these types has been examined by using a closed-type questionnaire form. The questionnaire form was based on the Likert quintet scale, and it contains 114 risk factors distributed in four groups representing the examined four types of risks. Over 170 questionnaire forms have been distributed in the oil field to engineers, managers, experts, and technicians, and 153 forms have been adopted for the analysis. SPSS software was used to execute the statistical analysis concerning statistical mean and relative important index. The most important factors have been found and then validated by using an assessment checklist. It was found that the most factors affecting operational risks are as follows: the presence of mines and explosives left over from past wars in areas to be explored and the incorrect storage of flammable materials. Regarding the financial and administrative risks, it was found that the existence of financial and administrative corruption in oil companies and the mismanagement by managers or their assistants have the most effect on this type of risk. For the economic and political risks, it was found that the most important factors are the entry of some companies into the blacklist of major economic countries and decreased global market demand for oil. Finally, regarding the potential risks, it was found that the control of terrorist groups over the oil areas and regions is the most significant risk that the Iraqi oil and gas sector may face. In addition, it was concluded that the spread of Coronavirus disease 2019 and other epidemics should be treated as a potential risk because it has a huge effect on global oil prices.

Keywords: operational risks; financial and administrative risks; economic and political risks and potential risks; relative importance index

1 Overview

The term risk is defined as “the chance of anything negative happening” and “something awful that might happen,” according to the Cambridge English Dictionary. Risk is defined as “a situation involving exposure to danger” and “the chance that something unpleasant or undesired will occur,” according to the Oxford English Dictionary. Individuals, organizations, professional groups, national and international standards, and governmental regulations all have different definitions of this term. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and the British Standards Institution are two national and international standards bodies (BSI) [1]. Risk and risk management have been examined by various disciplines; nevertheless, there is no clear or accepted definition in the literature, and the fields of economics, management, strategic management, project management, and others each give unique perspectives [2]. Despite these distinctions, risk management has become a more important concern as the level of uncertainty surrounding many corporate activities continues to rise [3]. Franklin [4], on the other hand, claims that the study of risk management did not begin until after World War II and that modern risk management emerged from the mid-1950s to the 1960s. Risk management has been linked to the provision of market insurance to protect individuals and businesses from losses caused by natural disasters. Before the mid-1950s, there were no established publications on risk management, and there were no training courses offered on the subject. Franklin [4] argues that the first two publications related to pure risk management were those of Newell and Grashna [5] and Williams [6], while many engineers developed risk management models to cope with operational and political risks; from that time, risk management has developed in many disciplines to what we see today [4,7].

When oil prices are high, a large inflow of petrodollar earnings produces disposable income that can be easily spent on regional arms competitions, especially when oil-consuming countries are driven to expand arms sales as a means of reducing trade imbalances caused by oil imports [8]. High global oil and natural gas prices slow global economic growth and encourage energy conservation, in addition to transferring wealth from industrialized countries to oil producers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and Russia (and stimulating renewed drilling for oil and gas in North America). As a result, worldwide petroleum consumption slows, decreasing oil prices. As oil prices fall, social and political problems in the region resurface. Regional administrations have fewer resources to spend on irritated residents who have become accustomed to hefty subsidies made possible by high oil prices. Job creation and visible social programs slacken, unhappiness rises, and the effects of economic downturns bolster militant support [9]. As a result of the instability, governments are forced to employ freshly purchased armaments, which, ironically, restarts the cycle as new conflicts disrupt the oil supply. Another possible concern that could disrupt the oil and gas industry is the rapid emergence of epidemics such as Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) [10]. Countries that are net oil exporters are facing a historic double blow: a worldwide economic slowdown brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, and an oil market meltdown, with the benchmark price for US crude oil, the West Texas Intermediate, briefly falling below zero for the first time in history (in April 2020) [8]. The International Energy Agency forecasts that oil and gas income for numerous significant producers will fall by 50–85% in 2020, compared to 2019, based on an oil price of USD 30 per barrel; however, the losses could be greater depending on the future market developments [11]. The current crisis is taking place against the backdrop of a structural decline in the fossil fuel market, driven by various nations’ commitments to decarbonization as well as broader technological advancements that are increasingly making renewable energy the preferred energy alternative [9,12].

2 Research methodology

To achieve the research objective which is defining the most important factors affecting risks in the Iraqi oil and gas sector, a statistical analysis using a questionnaire form has been considered. Three types of techniques have been used to determine these risks and then summarize them in a shortlist representing the most important factors. These techniques are brainstorming, the open type, and the close type questionnaire form. The first two techniques were used to determine the risks in general and that resulted in determining four types of risks that affect the Iraqi petroleum sector the most. These four types of risks are operational, financial and administrative, economic and political, and potential risks. However, the third one was used to shortlist and minimize these risks to carry out a statistical analysis after that.

3 Questionnaire design

The questionnaire form was designed according to two major steps. The first step was carried out by using an open-type questionnaire form distributed in the petroleum sector in different oil fields and companies to engineers, technicians, and consultants. These participants were gathered into groups each one consisting of 7–10 people. The open-type questionnaire was sent to five groups in Baghdad at various oil exploration firm sites, as well as two groups in each Basra, Najaf, Mesan, and Thi-Qair. The second step was completed with the help of brainstorming and expert interviews. In this study, the hazards that affect the oil sector are identified and determined. The closed-type questionnaire was constructed in its initial version after each sub-variable was divided into numerous reasons problems. The initial questionnaire was given to ten people as a simple test to see where the flaws and ambiguities were. These expert interviews play a critical function in assisting the researcher at a later time. Furthermore, the discussion of the open-type questionnaire, which was originally generated from literature and prior research, makes some changes to the form and adds new questions with the support of experts to ensure the effectiveness of the approach and questions used in the closed-type questionnaire form.

3.1 The four types of risks

From the open-type questionnaire form, brainstorming, as well as the reviewed literature, four types of risks were concluded to be the most affecting risks in the petroleum sector in Iraq. These four types are operational risks, administrative and financial risks, political and economic risks, and finally potential risks. A brief description of these types is illustrated in the following subsections.

3.1.1 Operational risk

The uncertainties and hazards a company faces when it attempts to do its day-to-day business activities within a given field or industry are summarized. It is a sort of business risk that arises from failures in internal procedures, people, and systems, as opposed to difficulties caused by external influences such as political or economic events, or systemic risk, which is inherent to the entire market or market segment. Operational risk can also be defined as a type of unsystematic risk that is peculiar to a firm or industry. The maintenance of necessary systems and equipment, for example, is an area that may include operational risk. If two maintenance tasks are required but only one can be afforded at the time, choosing one over the other changes the operating risk depending on which system is left in disrepair [10,13].

3.1.2 Administrative and financial risks

Oil and gas extraction, processing, marketing, and distribution constitute a business that aims at obtaining profits. The prices in the oil and gas markets must therefore be able to sustain the industry profitably. Oil and market price fluctuations are a risk concern for the sector. No one can say what the price of oil or gas will be once the extraction process is completed. As a result, companies in this industry incur a risk by extracting and purifying gas without knowing what future market values would be for their products. In several cases, oil and gas extraction corporations have gone through the entire process of geological testing and drilling while not receiving the anticipated product [8,13]. In such circumstances, the gas and oil extraction business faces a significant loss unless it is insured. Furthermore, supply and demand shocks pose a serious threat to oil and gas industries [14,15].

3.1.3 Political and economic risks

Political risk can be defined as a detailed evaluation of all the risks of doing business inside a particular country, because political instability in the host country can lead to changes in the investing environment and immeasurable risks in transnational oil investment [16]. A shift in a country’s management or political philosophy might lead to a reassessment of its oil, gas, and commodity reserves. Renegotiation of economic conditions, changes in royalty payment and tax rate structure, adjustments to production shares, and the possibility to repatriate interest, profit, and dividends are all feasible alterations [6,11]. Politics can have a significant impact on oil in terms of regulation, but this is not the only approach. An oil and gas corporation is typically subject to a slew of restrictions that regulate where, when, and how extraction is carried out [13,14,17]. The way rules and regulations are interpreted varies from state to state. Political risk, on the other hand, rises when oil and gas corporations work on deposits abroad. Companies favor countries with stable political systems and a track record of awarding and enforcing long-term leases [9,16]. Some firms, on the other hand, just go where the oil and gas are, even if the country does not precisely match their desires. This could lead to a slew of concerns, including rapid nationalization and/or shifting political winds that alter the regulatory landscape. The deal a corporation starts with may not always be the deal it ends up with, depending on which country the oil is taken from, as the government may alter its mind after the capital has been invested to generate more profit for itself. Political risk can be visible (e.g., developing in countries with an unstable regime and a history of forced nationalization) or more subtle (e.g., developing in countries with a history of forced nationalization [as found in nations that adjust foreign ownership rules to guarantee that domestic corporations gain an interest]) [9,17].

3.1.4 Potential risks

Wars have a great impact on the oil and gas sector. On the other hand, the enormous profits from petroleum have made it a significant cause of numerous wars. For decades, oil has molded world war. Between 1973 and 2012, 25–50% of interstate wars had oil-related links, according to one estimate [12,13]. Colgan [6] underappreciated the cyclical nature of oil’s role in global warfare, on the other hand. Oil prices are not simply cyclical, but the geopolitics of oil is inextricably related to the same boom-bust price cycle. Military adventurism, proxy wars, and regional pathologies in the Middle East ebb and flow with the oil price cycle’s vast petrodollar accumulations [18].

3.2 Closed-type questionnaire form

After the ten questionnaires are collected and viewing the comments and opinions of the participants, there are some changes to remove the ambiguity and misunderstanding in the formulation of phrases. So, now the questionnaire has been completed in its final form. The research sample consists of a group of engineers and project managers and heads of departments in government departments that perform or finance the implementation of projects or who have a scientific and practical experience in this field. The questionnaire is divided into two parts, the first part is a description of the members participating in the questionnaires and the second part is the effect of the factors on risk; 170 questionnaire forms were distributed to the targeted sample, and 153 forms are received. The remaining forms were neglected because of some missing answers.

4 Statistical analysis of the questionnaire data

The statistical and mathematical character of the process of interpreting data to gain the necessary knowledge that achieves the main of research must be specified by users and researchers. Understanding the mathematical behavior coming from the numbers after a series of data distribution and then collection to be ready for entry in this portion of the study is the most crucial in the translation of data individually and in sequence in some research content formulation. As a result, the outputs obtained from Mean and Relative important Index pointed the researcher to the next stage of inquiry, which explains why these tools were used in the first place [19,20].

4.1 Likert scale

A psychometric response scale is typically used in questionnaires to determine a participant’s preferences or level of agreement with a statement or set of statements. The responders are asked to use a Likert scale to indicate their level of agreement with a specific statement. The design of the questionnaire is based on the fact that each question has five possible answers. As a result, the Likert Quintet Scale is employed. Values (weights) are normally entered as shown in Table 1 [20].

Table 1

Weights based on the Likert quintet scale

Opinion	Scale	Scale weight
Very low	X ₁	1
Low	X ₂	2
Neutral	X ₃	3
High	X ₄	4
Very high	X ₅	5

4.2 Mean

The algebraic sum of a set of items divided by their numbers is the Mean (M). In the event of similar distributions, it is used with quantitative variables, especially if all values are taken into account. The mean is regarded as one of the most stable measures of central tendency that is unaffected by sample selection [20]. The means were used to examine the data acquired from answers, with the factor or criteria that received a greater rate being considered more important than the other factors and criteria. The mean for each response element or condition was calculated using point scales. After that, the mean was used to rank the options in ascending order of relevance. The mean for each factor or option was calculated by using the following formula [21]:

(1) M = ∑ k = 1 k = n X 1 ⁎ S 1 + X 2 ⁎ S 2 + X 3 ⁎ S 3 + X 4 ⁎ S 4 + X 5 ⁎ S 5 N ,

where M is the mean, X is the scale given by the respondents within the range of 0–5 based on the Likert scale, S is the number of iterations, k is the question number, n is the last question in the questionnaire form equals to 114, and N is the total number of respondents which is equal to 153.

When the rate is higher, the association is more significant; in other words, the relationship is positive. As previously stated, it employs the Likert quintet scale in determining the weights of questionnaire responses. As a result, the length of the interval to go from one mean level to the next will be (4/5 = 0.8), where 5 is the number of possibilities and 4 is the number of intervals between options, as shown in Table 2. Version 24 of the SPSS application was used. The mean of all reasons is calculated, and the trend of responses on each reason is determined by comparing it to the weighted mean to determine if it is acceptable or not, or neutral. The worth of 3.40 has been adopted as a limit between that influential and non-influential reasons for risk management.

Table 2

Agreement level according to the Likert quintet scale

Weighted mean	Level
1–1.81	Very low
1.81–2.61	Low
2.61–3.41	Neutral
3.41–4.21	High
4.21–5.00	Very high

4.3 Relative important index (RII)

The RII technique was used to estimate the relative relevance of the various reasons for delay (Ozdemir, 2010) [21]. The five-point Likert scale, which ranges from 0 to 5, is used to convert each factor in the questionnaire into relative importance index (RII) as shown below:

(2) RII = ∑ k = 1 k = n X 1 ⁎ S 1 + ⁎ S 2 + X 3 ⁎ S 3 + X 4 ⁎ S 4 + X 5 ⁎ S 5 N ⁎ A ,

where A is the highest weight equals 5 based on the Likert scale.

4.4 Reliability and validity

The reliability (α) and validity (v) of the questionnaire results are checked by Cronbach’s alpha technique using Eq. (3) and validity using Eq. (4), where the normal range of Cronbach’s coefficient (alpha) value is between (0.0) and (1.0). The closer the Alpha is to (1), the greater the internal consistency of data [21].

(3) α = K K − 1 1 − ∑ i = 1 k S i 2 S t 2 ,

(4) v = α α 2 ,

where α is the reliability, K is the number of iterations, S i 2 is the variance associated with the item (i), S t 2 is the variance associated with the sum of all (k) item scores, and v is the validity.

5 Research outcomes

The importance of each factor covered in the questionnaire form has been found using the RII given in Eq. (2). It was found that “The presence of mines and explosives left over from past wars in areas to be explored” has the most effect on operational risks with 0.9 RII as Iraq suffered from several wars in the last 30 years, and till now, there are many undiscovered mines in the resent battlefields. The second two important factors that affect risks in the Iraqi patrolmen sector were found to be “The Incorrect storage of flammable materials” and “The Lack of fire protection system and sensors” with RII values of 0.8693 and 0.8680, respectively. This is mainly because of the lack of compliance with safety and security procedures. Regarding financial and administrative risks, it was found that the factor that contributes the most to financial and administrative risks is “The existence of financial and administrative corruption in oil companies” with an RII value of 0.9033. However, after the 2003 war, corruption started to spread in all the governmental associations because of the weak government and absence of the law. Anyway, even after almost two decades, this corruption seems very difficult to overcome, and thus, it considers the major risk that the Iraqi petroleum sector is facing from financial and administrative perspective. In addition, and for the same reason, “The mismanagement by managers or their assistants” was found to be the second factor affecting risks with 0.8667 RII. This is important for risks due to the absence of the law as managers can easily escape from punishment. Again, because of the spread corruption, the factor “referring projects to companies with poor CV and don’t have similar businesses” considers the third factor affecting financial and administrative risks with 0.8562 RII. Regarding economic and political risks, the factor “The entry of some companies into the blacklist of major economic countries” with an RII of 0.9124 has the most significant effect. However, and as discussed with some experts, this will mainly affect the oil industry in the growing countries because those are always depending on the countries with an advanced and strong economy. For example, if one of the companies working in some country enters the blacklist and is followed by banking restrictions or sanctions, the flow of the petrodollar will be significantly affected resulting in a considerable drop in production rates. The second factor was found to be the “Decreased global market demand for oil” with 0.9072 RII. The reason for this risk is somehow obvious as the low demand for oil means cheaper oil prices. The third factor affecting economic and political risks was found to be the “Sit-ins or blocking of roads leading to the oil projects” with an RII of 0.9020. This risk will lead to the closing of the oil field, and thus, the production rate will be affected. Finally, regarding the potential risks, it was found that “The control of terrorist groups over the oil areas and fields” has the most effect with an RII value of 0.9307. This is because Iraq has suffered from terrorist groups such as ISIS and others. And the control of these groups on oil fields will lead to very bad results such as selling the oil on the black market, using the oil to grow the terrorist group, losing a huge quantity of oil, and the estrangement of global oil companies. For all these, this factor has been considered the riskiest factor. In addition, it was found that “the economic consequences for the countries in which terrorist groups control vast areas” with 0.9046 RII is also a very important factor as controlling vast areas by the terrorists will result in serious consequences to that country. In addition to all the above, the effect of COVID-19 has also been covered in this study. It was found that the “Impact of epidemics on global oil prices” has the most important effect on the petroleum sector not only in Iraq but also in the whole world as happened with the beginning of COVID-19 and the huge drop in global oil prices. The second important risk was found to be “The spread of the Coronavirus in oil sites or fields” with an RII of 0.8497. The spread of COVID-19 in the oil field will lead to a lockdown, and this will badly affect the rates of production. Many other factors have also been tested in this study as shown in Table 3. All these results have been validated, and it was found that the rates of reliability and validity were found to be 0.974 and 0.985, respectively, based on Eqs. (3) and (4).

Table 3

Most important factor details

No	Type of risk	Mean	RII
	Operational risks
1	The presence of mines and explosives left over from past wars in areas to be explored	4.503	0.9007
2	Incorrect storage of flammable materials	4.346	0.8693
3	Lack of fire protection system and sensors	4.339	0.8680
4	Employees do not comply with safety regulations and procedures	4.287	0.8575
	Financial and administrative risks factors
1	Existence of financial and administrative corruption in oil companies	4.516	0.9033
2	Mismanagement by managers or their assistants	4.333	0.8667
3	Referring projects to companies with poor CVs and do not have similar businesses	4.281	0.8562
4	Top managers are not interested in risks	4.150	0.8301
	Economic and political risks
1	The entry of some companies into the blacklist of major economic countries	4.562	0.9124
2	Decreased global market demand for oil	4.535	0.9072
3	Sit-ins or blocking of roads leading to the oil projects	4.509	0.9020
4	The occurrence of clan conflicts near the workplaces of oil companies	4.352	0.8706
	Potential risks
1	The control of terrorist groups over the oil areas	4.653	0.9307
2	The control of terrorist groups over the oil fields	4.522	0.9307
3	The economic consequences for the countries in which terrorist groups control vast areas	4.516	0.9046
4	Subjected oil companies to the rules of terrorist groups	4.457	0.9033

6 Conclusions

As a result, for this study, the following points have been concluded:

The presence of mines, neglecting safety and security procedures such as the incorrect store of flammable material, and the absence of fire alarm systems were found to have the most effect on operational risks.
It was found that corruption is the main risk that the Iraqi petroleum sector is facing concerning financial and administrative risks.
Regarding economic and political risks, it was found that if working companies entered the blacklist of the major economic countries, and if the global oil demand has been reduced, the production rate will be significantly affected. Also, the sit-ins or blocking of roads due to political reasons will affect the production rate.
The control of terrorist groups in the oil area has the most danger to the oil and gas sector in the country in which case happed. This risk was found to be the most important risk, especially in unstable countries.
It was found that the spread of COVID-19 and other epidemics should always be treated as a potential risk since it has a huge effect on the global and local oil and gas industries.

Acknowledgments

Thanks to Muayad A. Mohammed and Musab Falih for their support.

Funding information: The authors state no funding involved.
Author contributions: All authors have accepted responsibility for the entire content of this manuscript and approved its submission.
Conflict of interest: Authors state no conflict of interest.

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Received: 2022-03-09

Revised: 2022-05-09

Accepted: 2022-04-12

Published Online: 2022-10-05

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https://doi.org/10.1515/jmbm-2022-0018

Keywords for this article

operational risks; financial and administrative risks; economic and political risks and potential risks; relative importance index

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