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Study on water regime assessment and prediction of stream flow based on an improved RVA

  • Wei Guo , Liqiang Yao , Jijun Xu EMAIL logo , Jun Shao , Shuo OuYang , FuNing Cui and Yanwei Yang
Published/Copyright: November 23, 2022
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Open Geosciences
From the journal Open Geosciences Volume 14 Issue 1

Abstract

Considering that many hydrological analysis methods compare and analyze the runoff before and after the construction of the reservoir, without restoring the measured data of the hydrological station, in this case, when the length of the measured data series is short, the evaluation results will be affected. In this article, based on the runoff reduction of stations affected by water conservancy projects, an improved range of variability approach (RVA) which can be applied to 1-year hydrological change analysis is proposed by coupling the hydrological variation index with the appropriate upper and lower limit theory of RVA. As Jialing river watershed is selected as the research area, the runoff depth of Beibei station is reduced, and then the improved RVA is employed to analyze the degree of change in river water regime. It is concluded that the change degree of overall hydrological index in Beibei station is high, and the prediction of variation of water regime of Beibei station can be made with the aid of simulating the operation of cascade reservoirs, with the inflow of Beibei station in flood season to reduce, and the inflow in dry season to increase. The example verifies the effectiveness of the improved RVA method, and the analysis results can provide a reference for the adjustment of the operation mode of upstream cascade reservoirs.

Keywords: Jialing River watershed; cascade reservoir; improved range of variability approach; hydrological variation index

1 Introduction

The operation of reservoirs and hydropower stations not only provided humans with comprehensive benefits such as flood control, power generation, and water supply, but also changed the natural distribution process of the river, changed the original hydrological regime of the river, and caused some damage to the ecological environment of the river downstream of the project. It not only changes the annual and internal distribution of water resources, but also affects the migration and spawning of fishes in the lower reaches due to its influence on flood regulation. In order to quantitatively evaluate the influence degree, a large number of studies have been carried out by scholars. Aimed at optimizing and adjusting the operation mode of water conservancy projects and realizing the harmony between people and water, the differences between natural runoff series and runoff series affected by water conservancy projects are evaluated.

Range of variability approach (RVA) [1,2] indirectly reflects the degree of hydrological variation of rivers by constructing the hydrological index set of rivers and analyzing the changes of hydrological index in different periods. There are a lot of applied studies based on different basins at home and abroad. For example, Yang et al. [3] improved the evaluation mechanism of RVA for hydrological variation of each parameter, and applied it to hydrological variation analysis of the channel in the lower Shanxi Reservoir. Based on the hydrological variation index (IHA index), Ma et al. [4] used the variation range method (RVA) to calculate the ecological hydrological objectives in the middle and lower reaches of Weihe River, and studied the variation of ecological hydrological characteristics. Cai et al. [5] evaluated the effects of the operation of Three Gorges Reservoir on the water regime of the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River by RVA and drew a conclusion that the influence on the runoff of the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River is moderate. Xingpin et al. [6] evaluated the impact of Fengshuba Reservoir on runoff with the aid of RVA. Chen [7] analyzed the Dongjiang watershed based on RVA. Juntao et al. [8] analyzed the water regime of Xiaodeshi considering the operation of Ertan Hydropower Station and found that the water regime has changed greatly than before. Many scholars [9,10] have conducted research on hydrological analysis under the influence of water conservancy projects. In addition, some scholars [11,12] tried to use models for analysis and evaluation.

Considering that most of the existing research focused on the comparative analysis of the measured runoff series before and after the construction of the reservoir, there is no reduction for measured data of the station. For the reservoirs with short measured data series or with long operation period after construction is provided, the size of the selected series samples affects the accuracy of evaluation. Therefore, this article considers the reduction of the measured discharge after the impact of the water conservancy project and merges it with the natural runoff sequence, so as to extend the natural discharge of the station and increase the representativeness and reliability of the series.

In this study, the improved RVA is used to evaluate the variation of current water regime of the lower reaches of rivers in watershed, with the purpose to investigate the evolution law of water resources in the field of watershed, predict the water regime of watershed in the future, and provide reference for the optimal operation of dominated water conservancy projects in watershed.

2 Methodology

2.1 RVA

The principle of RVA [1,2] is to select dominated hydrological stations or hydrological sections in river, and construct 32 indices or indexes set represented by magnitude of flow, occurrence time, frequency, duration, and rate of change, based on the statistical analysis of long series runoff data at the daily scale of dominated stations or dominated sections. By selecting time nodes, the variation of dominated stations or dominated sections affected by upstream human activities or water conservancy projects is evaluated. At present, scholars have applied it to the hydrological variation analysis of multiple rivers, which has an ideal effect, demonstrating that it can be used to analyze and evaluate the current channel situation and future hydrological variation of rivers affected by water conservancy projects.

The hydrological characteristic values are generally calculated by indicators of hydrological change (IHA), and the specific indicators are shown in Table 1.

Table 1

Hydrological IHA indicators for RVA method

Group Content Indicator IHA indicator
1st Flow of each month 1–12 Flow of each month
2nd Extreme flow 13–22 Average annual maximum and minimum 1, 3, 7, 30, 90 day flow
23 Ratio of annual minimum 7-day traffic to annual average traffic
3rd Occurrence time of extreme flow 24–25 Maximum and minimum 1-day flow time per year
26–27 The number of times of low flow and high flow per year
4th The frequency of high, low flow and retardation 28–29 Average retardation of low flow and high flow
30–31 Average flow reduction rate and increase rate
5th Flow rate of change and frequency 32 Number of flow reversals per year

Different indicator groups have different implications for the ecosystem. The monthly flow indicators of the first group mainly reflect the river’s function to meet the requirement of aquatic animals and plants for habitat. The indicators of the second group satisfy the needs of natural habitat construction. The indicators of the third group focus on the need for species evolution. The indicators of the fourth group describe the demand of river sediment transport and bottom flow surge. The indicators of the last group reflect the stress degree of the changing river flow on organisms and environment. It can be seen that different groups represent different functions, which show the changes of water regime of rivers in detail.

By analyzing the changes of 32 IHA indexes of the dominated section before and after the construction of water conservancy projects, RVA can indirectly research the change degree of channel affected by human activities in the corresponding section. In the specific calculation, the representative river section located in the lower reaches of reservoir is selected as monitoring section of the influence of upstream water conservancy project in the upper reaches of the river. First, the affected period of river is divided, and the IHA value of 32 hydrological indexes of the section before construction of water conservancy project is calculated, and the change threshold of each index is set, generally with the corresponding index values under the occurrence probability of 25 and 75% being the upper and lower limits of threshold. Then the hydrological IHA index value of the affected year after the construction of the water conservancy project is calculated, and the hydrological change degree of a single index and the overall hydrological change degree of the whole river section are estimated.

2.2 An improved RVA

In addition, considering that the conventional RVA integrates 32 IHA indexes to analyze the overall change by evaluating the variation of a single IHA index after the construction of project. For the case of short runoff series after considering the impact of project, there is much inconvenience using RVA. Therefore, in order to overcome these drawbacks, this article proposes to carry out variation assessment in the same year after considering the impact of project, then integrate the series to qualitatively analyze the overall change.

  1. The close degree of single IHA index:

    C i = b i − a i 2 a i , max − a i 2 , if a i 2 ≤ b i ≤ a i , max , ∣ b i − a i ¯ ∣ a i 2 − a i 1 , if a i 1 < b i < a i 2 , a i 1 − b i a i 1 − a i , min , if a i , min ≤ b i ≤ a i 1 ,

    where C i is the close degree of IHA index of i, i = 1, 2, …32, a i 2 , a i 1 , a i ¯ generally take the upper and lower 75, 25, 50% percentile value of IHA index i based on the calculation by RVA, b i is the actual value of IHA index I, a i,max, a i,min is the maximum (M), minimum of IHA index i in long series.

  2. The alteration degree of IHA index of single year after construction of the project:

    D k = 1 32 ∑ j = 1 32 C j ,

    where D k is the average change degree of 32 indexes in year k and C j is the average change degree of index of j in year k.

  3. The alteration degree of IHA index after construction of the project:

    D = 1 N ∑ k = 1 N D k ,

    where D is the whole change degree, N is the series order of year by the influence of projects, and D k is the average change degree in the year k. If 0 ≤ D ≤ 0.33, the change degree is low (L). If 0.33 < D ≤ 0.66 the change degree is medium (M). If 0.66 < D ≤ 1, the change degree is high (H).

3 Case study

3.1 Study area

Jialing River is the main tributary on the left bank of the upper reaches of Yangtze River. It flows through Shanxi province, Gansu province, Sichuan province, and Chongqing (municipality directly under the central government), whose total length of the main stream is 1,120 km and total watershed area is 159,800 km2. There are 16 main water conservancy and hydropower projects in the mainstream of Jialing River, among which Tingzikou Reservoir is the key dominated project in the middle reaches of Jialing River, playing an important role in improving flood control and water supply capacity of the watershed.

Beibei hydrological station is the dominated station of Jialing River watershed. This article selects Beibei hydrological station to study the trend of runoff variation and hydrological variation of the mainstream of Jialing River watershed.

The sketch map of water system, reservoir, and hydrological station of Jialing River watershed is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1 Drainage map of Jialing River basin.
Figure 1

Drainage map of Jialing River basin.

3.2 Runoff reduction of Jialing River station

A series of Beibei station is recorded from 1939 to 2016. Since 1997, there has been a number of large-scale water conservancy projects built in the upstream Jialing River watershed of Beibei hydrological station in recent years. These water conservancy projects affect the natural runoff distribution of Beibei station to varying degrees, among which the Baozhusi power station in Bailong River and Tingzikou reservoir have a considerable regulation effect. The Tingzikou reservoir began to store water from June 2013, so the runoff of Baozhusi Hydropower Station is reduced according to the principle of water balance from 1997 to 2016, while the runoff of Tingzikou reservoir was reduced from June 2013 to 2016.

The changes of annual average monthly flow before and after the reduction of Beibei station from 1997 to 2016 are statistically analyzed. The results are shown in Figure 2. It can be seen that they are affected by the regulation and storage of upstream cascade reservoirs, the actual monthly average flow of Beibei station from May to November from 1997 to 2016 is smaller than the natural flow, and the flow increases from December to April in the water supply period, in which the average flow in January increases by 26%. For runoff, the annual distribution of runoff after reduction changes little compared to the distribution of the runoff before reduction, indicating that the cascade reservoirs in the upper of Beibei have little influence on runoff.

Figure 2 Monthly average flow changes of Beibei station before and after reduction calculation from 1997 to 2016.
Figure 2

Monthly average flow changes of Beibei station before and after reduction calculation from 1997 to 2016.

Taking into account the different reservoir combinations that affect the water regime of rivers in different stages, it is difficult to distinguish the influence of cascades in different stages by directly using RVA. Thus, the method proposed in this article integrates the reduced series and the original natural series of Beibei station from 1997 to 2016 to construct a long series of evaluation dataset, which is an effective attempt to make improvement.

3.3 Hydrological variation status of Beibei station based on the RVA method

The measured flow of Beibei station on the Jialing River after 1976 was affected by the upstream water conservancy project. Therefore, this study takes 1976 as the dividing line to analyze the impact of water conservancy projects on the hydrological situation of the downstream Beibei station. It is concluded that there are 23 indicators that changed drastically, and the overall water level change is 0.75 (Table 2).

Table 2

Hydrological indicator variation at Beibei station after cascade reservoirs put into operation

Group IHA Natural discharge (regardless of engineering) Measured discharge (considering the engineering)
Median value Upper limit of RVA Lower limit of RVA Median value Value of alteration degree
The first group 1 463 517 418 496 0.33
2 391 431 358 408 0.67
3 483 618 334 511 1.00
4 1,047 1,389 657 879 1.00
5 2,003 2,741 1,103 1,644 1.00
6 2,532 3,453 1,403 2,500 1.00
7 5,155 6,311 4,026 5,442 0.22
8 4,014 5,257 2,618 3,965 0.89
9 4,931 6,576 3,028 4,075 1.00
10 3,072 4,083 1,883 2,227 1.00
11 1,345 1,656 1,019 1,165 0.89
12 714 836 597 630 0.89
The second group 13 346 381 317 284 0.22
14 22,259 26,811 17,839 22,014 1.00
15 349 384 319 303 0.89
16 18,953 23,035 14,912 18,861 0.67
17 353 388 323 327 0.44
18 14,075 17,277 10,871 13,227 1.00
19 371 411 336 382 0.67
20 7,707 9,380 6,063 7,144 0.89
21 441 510 373 463 1.00
22 5,148 6,165 4,151 4,815 0.78
23 0.168 0.196 0.143 0.173 0.22
The third group 24 62 73 53 77 0.78
25 221 249 197 213 1.00
26 96 107 85 88 1.00
27 72 79 65 69 0.67
The four group 28 136 175 94 44 0.33
29 11 13 9 9 1.00
30 0.29 0.33 0.26 0.25 0.11
31 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.12 0.22
The five group 32 114 122 106 153 0.56

The hydrological indicators with height changes (monthly average flow in February, monthly average flow in March, monthly average flow in November, monthly average flow in December, annual minimum 3-day and 30-day average flow) measured in a long series and natural process are listed in Figure 3 for detailed analysis of the influence of water conservancy projects on the water regime of the lower reaches of rivers.

Figure 3 Comparison of the alteration of hydrologic indicators in high degree at Beibei station.
Figure 3 Comparison of the alteration of hydrologic indicators in high degree at Beibei station.
Figure 3

Comparison of the alteration of hydrologic indicators in high degree at Beibei station.

It can also be seen from Table 2 that in the monthly flow indexes of the first group, except the monthly average flow in January and August, the monthly average flow in other months is highly changed. In indicators reflecting the annual extreme flow of the second group, except the annual minimum 7-day flow and base flow index are minutely changed, other indicators are greatly changed. All indicators in the third group change considerably. These demonstrate that the influence of cascade reservoirs on the accumulation and recovery has significantly changed the water regime of the lower reaches of the Jialing River and makes natural extreme flow events decreased; meanwhile, it has a great impact on the spawning and reproduction of fishes in the lower reaches. High flow duration of the fourth group is highly variable.

Figure 4 Closeness of hydrological station’s annual runoff.
Figure 4

Closeness of hydrological station’s annual runoff.

4 Discussion

The comprehensive change degree calculated by the improved-RVA method for each year from 1977 to 2015 is shown in Figure 4.

Figure 5 Schematic diagram of IHA changes in Beibei station.
Figure 5

Schematic diagram of IHA changes in Beibei station.

Through analysis of the degree of change year by year, the data with high degree of closeness of specific year can be selected from the annual runoff series after considering the influence of water conservancy projects, and the annual runoff series before the construction of water conservancy projects can be added to form the hydrological data series as long as possible, for the purpose to better conduct the analysis of river water regime and guide the dispatching practice. The changes of hydrological indexes calculated by different methods are illustrated in Figure 5 (Table 3).

Table 3

Changes of hydrological indexes calculated by different methods

Methods IHA changes
RVA 0.75
Improved-RVA 0.69

The result calculated by the improved IHA–RVA method is smaller than the previous one, because the storage variables of cascade reservoirs in Jialing River Basin are reduced to Beibei station, and the natural series of runoff of Beibei station are reduced. The improved method extended the runoff series, thereby increasing the representativeness of the series, so the evaluation results are more reasonable.

Based on the improve-RVA method, this article restores the runoff of hydrological stations affected by water conservancy projects, and analyzes the degree of change of IHA indicators in each year to determine the degree of change between the river flow and the natural flow in a single year, thereby expanding the theories and methods used to analyze the hydrological situation of rivers. The Jialing River watershed was taken as a research example in this article and verified the practicability of the method.

5 Conclusion

This article proposed an improved RVA which can be applied to 1-year hydrological change analysis by coupling the hydrological variation index with the appropriate upper and lower limit theory of RVA. When the reservoir is put into operation in different stages, there is much inconvenience to the calculation of RVA due to the early construction of the project. The method proposed in this article can solve the dilemma that RVA cannot be applied due to the short series of calculation, and has a quantitative evaluation of influence of engineering at different stages, or even in a single year. The practicability of the method proposed in this article is verified by actual examples.

It is a meaningful attempt to carry out water regime assessment and analysis of ecological environment evolution of river. Considering that the method proposed in this study needs more tests, different watersheds and objects will be selected for thorough analysis and evaluation in the following work.

  1. Funding information: This work was financially supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Program SN: U2040212), the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) (Grant No. 2019QZKK0203), the CRSRI Open Research Program (Program SN: CKWV2019766/KY), and National Public Research Institutes for Basic R&D Operating Expenses Special Project (Program SN: CKSF2017061/SZ).

  2. Conflict of interest: Authors state no conflict of interest.

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Received: 2021-07-01
Revised: 2022-01-21
Accepted: 2022-02-03
Published Online: 2022-11-23

© 2022 Wei Guo et al., published by De Gruyter

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2022-0352
Keywords for this article
Jialing River watershed; cascade reservoir; improved range of variability approach; hydrological variation index
Creative Commons
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