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Predictors of incidents during short leave: An analysis of prisoner personal files in the Lower Saxony prison system

  • Merten Neumann ORCID logo EMAIL logo , Helena Schüttler ORCID logo and Thimna Klatt ORCID logo
Published/Copyright: November 29, 2023
Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform
From the journal Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform Volume 107 Issue 1

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the prediction of incidents during short leave (ISLs) for inmates in the German prison system using static risk and protective factors that had been assessed at the start of the incarceration. Data from the personal files of inmates in Lower Saxony were analysed to examine the prevalence of ISLs and to assess the ability of the Offender Group Reconviction Scale – Version 3 (OGRS 3) to predict ISLs. In addition, random forest models were used to identify potential predictors that could further improve the prediction performance. The results showed that the OGRS 3 had significant predictive validity for drug abuse, late return, and any ISL but not for new offences during short leave. However, the OGRS 3 exhibited problems with false positive rates in its prediction of ISLs. The random forest models did not substantially improve the prediction of any ISL, but they did improve the prediction of drug abuse during short leave. This study highlights the importance of considering dynamic factors and using a more comprehensive approach in risk assessment for ISLs.

Keywords: Short leave; absconding; risk assessment; OGRS 3; random forest

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  1. Conflict of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  2. Data availability statement: The data and the R code of the analysis are available at: https://osf.io/n7qxy/

  3. Supplementary Material: The supplementary tables 1 and 2 are available at: https://osf.io/urx46/

  4. Funding: The research project from which these data originate was funded by the Lower Saxony Ministry of Science and Culture.

Published Online: 2023-11-29
Published in Print: 2024-01-29

© 2023 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Articles in the same Issue

  1. Frontmatter
  2. Editorial
  3. Lockerungen im Straf- und Maßregelvollzug: Aktueller Forschungsstand und Einleitung zum Themenheft
  4. Artikel
  5. Vollzugsöffnende Maßnahmen und Entlassungsvorbereitung – Gesetzgebung und Praxis in den Bundesländern
  6. Die Prüfung der Wirkungen von Lockerungen
  7. Unsupervised short leave in forensic addiction treatment: Is there an influence on treatment progress?
  8. Lockerungen im österreichischen Maßnahmenvollzug –
  9. Effekte unbegleiteter Lockerungen aus der Sozialtherapie auf die Beschäftigungssituation bei Entlassung
  10. Vollzugslockerungen und Legalbewährung bei inhaftierten Sexualstraftätern
  11. Predictors of incidents during short leave: An analysis of prisoner personal files in the Lower Saxony prison system
  12. Buchbesprechung
  13. Derin, Benjamin & Singelnstein, Tobias (2022): Die Polizei. Helfer Gegner, Staatsgewalt. Inspektion einer mächtigen Organisation. Ullstein: Berlin (438 Seiten)
https://doi.org/10.1515/mks-2023-0038
Keywords for this article
Short leave; absconding; risk assessment; OGRS 3; random forest

Articles in the same Issue

  1. Frontmatter
  2. Editorial
  3. Lockerungen im Straf- und Maßregelvollzug: Aktueller Forschungsstand und Einleitung zum Themenheft
  4. Artikel
  5. Vollzugsöffnende Maßnahmen und Entlassungsvorbereitung – Gesetzgebung und Praxis in den Bundesländern
  6. Die Prüfung der Wirkungen von Lockerungen
  7. Unsupervised short leave in forensic addiction treatment: Is there an influence on treatment progress?
  8. Lockerungen im österreichischen Maßnahmenvollzug –
  9. Effekte unbegleiteter Lockerungen aus der Sozialtherapie auf die Beschäftigungssituation bei Entlassung
  10. Vollzugslockerungen und Legalbewährung bei inhaftierten Sexualstraftätern
  11. Predictors of incidents during short leave: An analysis of prisoner personal files in the Lower Saxony prison system
  12. Buchbesprechung
  13. Derin, Benjamin & Singelnstein, Tobias (2022): Die Polizei. Helfer Gegner, Staatsgewalt. Inspektion einer mächtigen Organisation. Ullstein: Berlin (438 Seiten)
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