Startseite Prediction of Reactivity Ratios in Free Radical Copolymerization from Monomer Resonance–Polarity (Q–e) Parameters: Genetic Programming-Based Models
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Prediction of Reactivity Ratios in Free Radical Copolymerization from Monomer ResonancePolarity (Q–e) Parameters: Genetic Programming-Based Models

  • K. Shrinivas , Rahul P. Kulkarni , Saif Shaikh , Ravindra V. Ghorpade , Renu Vyas , Sanjeev S. Tambe EMAIL logo , S. Ponrathnam und Bhaskar D. Kulkarni
Veröffentlicht/Copyright: 3. April 2015
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Abstract

The principal deficiency of the widely utilized AlfreyPrice (AP) scheme for computing reactivity ratios in the widely used free radical copolymerization is that it ignores important factors, such as the steric effects. This often leads to inaccurate reactivity ratio predictions by AP model. Accordingly, in this study, exclusively data-driven, Q–e parameter-based new models have been developed for the reactivity ratio prediction in free radical copolymerization. In the model development, a novel artificial intelligence formalism known as “genetic programming (GP)” that performs symbolic regression has been employed. The GP-based models possess a different functional form than AP model. Further, parameters of GP-based models were fine-tuned using Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) nonlinear regression method. A comparison of AP, GP and GP-LM as well as artificial neural network (ANN)-based models indicates that GP and GP-LM models exhibit superior reactivity ratio prediction accuracy and generalization performance (with correlation coefficient magnitudes close to or greater than 0.9) when compared with AP and ANN models. The GP-based reactivity ratio prediction models developed here due to their higher accuracy and generalization capability have the potential of replacing the widely used AP models.

Acknowledgment

RV thanks the Department of Science and Technology (DST), New Delhi, for the award of “Women Scientist Fellowship.”

Appendix A

The GP procedure begins by creating a random population of symbolically coded candidate solutions (expressions) to a given data-fitting problem; each candidate solution is described in the form of a “tree” structure representing a different mathematical data-fitting expression. A tree typically consists of multiple symbolically coded building blocks (branches) comprising function and terminal nodes. These blocks when combined together form a complete mathematical expression. Within a tree each node may be connected to “sub-branch” nodes. However, connections to nodes other than in the adjoining layer are forbidden. In mathematical terms, a tree represents a directed graph originating from a single “root” vertex or node where each node is connected to a number of sub-branch nodes. An illustrative tree structure defining an expression is shown in Figure 3 (panel a) wherein two branches emanate from the root node. The function node shown in the figure defines a mathematical operator; a set of possible operators is given below:

  1. Arithmetic operators: addition, subtraction, multiplication, division

  2. Trigonometric and other mathematical operators: sine, cosine, tan, cot, square root, logarithm, exponentiation, etc.

  3. Conditional operators: IF-THEN-ELSE

  4. Boolean operators: AND, OR, etc.

Figure 3: Illustration of a tree structure and selection, crossover and mutation operations in a generic genetic programming implementation. (a) Schematic of a tree structure encoding an expression “(v-x) * [sqrt (v ÷ z)]”; (b) selection of tree branches for crossover; (c) crossover operation, and (d) mutation operation.
Figure 3:

Illustration of a tree structure and selection, crossover and mutation operations in a generic genetic programming implementation. (a) Schematic of a tree structure encoding an expression “(v-x) * [sqrt (v ÷ z)]”; (b) selection of tree branches for crossover; (c) crossover operation, and (d) mutation operation.

The operator set used in a GP-implementation typically depends upon the nature of the data-driven modeling problem being addressed. For instance, in a trivial data-fitting problem, four basic arithmetic operators (+, –, ×, ÷) may be adequate, whereas to model data from, say, an exothermic chemical reactor, an exponentiation operator may be additionally needed to account for the temperature effects.

A terminal node (“leaf” of a branch) defines an “operand” (entity on which an operator acts) the examples of which are variables, constants (elements of the parameter vector, α), and zero-arity functions, i.e. functions with no arguments, such as rand (random number). Accordingly, the candidate solution defined in the tree structure of Figure 3 (panel a) is “(v-x) * [sqrt (v ÷ z)].”

GP implementation

To solve the symbolic regression problem defined in eq. (4), the GP implementation uses four steps:

  1. Creation of initial population: Randomly generate an initial population of candidate solutions to the symbolic regression problem (eq. (4)) wherein each solution is coded using a tree structure.

  2. Fitness evaluation: Compute the fitness score of each candidate solution in the current population using the available example input-output data. Fitness score is an indicator of how well a given candidate solution fits the example input-output data. It is used in selecting highly ‘fit’ candidates for ‘mating’ to produce offspring candidate solutions. In essence, fitness score helps in eliminating ‘inferior’ solutions and allows the best candidate solutions in the current population to pass on their genetic material across generations. There exists a number of ways to determine the fitness score of a candidate solution depending upon the specific problem being solved [3]. For instance, the fitness of a candidate solution can be evaluated using a sum-squared-error (SSE) dependent fitness function of the following form:

    (10)Rj2=11+Δj2;j=1,2,,Np

    where Δj2 refers to the SSE, computed as

    (11)Δj2=i=1Ntrnyiyi,jmdl2

    where yi refers to the desired (target) value of the function output from the training dataset, i denotes the index of the training data; yi,jmdl represents the output predicted by the jth candidate solution when ith training input vector is used for prediction.

  3. Generate a new population of candidate solutions by:

    • Selection: Here, individual candidate solution trees are chosen from the current population to form a mating pool of parent solutions for undergoing crossover (recombination) operation. The basic idea of selection operation is that only fitter candidate solutions (assessed on the basis of high fitness scores) enter the mating pool. There exist several methods such as Roulette-wheel selection, tournament selection, elitist mating [47], etc. for conducting selection of parents.

    • Crossover: Randomly form pairs of parent trees from the mating pool to undergo crossover, and create a pair of new offspring solutions from each parent pair by exchanging randomly chosen parts of the parent trees. A number of crossover strategies exists (see e.g. Banzhaf and Langdon [48], however their principal aim is to introduce variation in the population by breeding offspring candidate solutions inheriting parts of each parent. An illustration of one of the strategies, namely, two parent–two offspring crossover is shown in Figure 3 wherein the branches of the parent trees I and II chosen to undergo crossover are shown in panel b while the pair of offspring formed following the crossover is portrayed in panel c.

    • Mutation: Modify (mutate) contents of randomly chosen function and/or terminal node(s) of offspring candidate solutions with a small probability. Like crossover, mutation can be carried out in various ways such as “branch” mutation and “node” mutation. For instance, in the node mutation [Figure 3 (panel d)] an operator (operand) of a randomly chosen function (terminal) node is replaced by another operator (operand), whereas in the branch mutation a randomly chosen branch is replaced by a randomly generated another branch. The population of candidate solutions resulting upon mutated offspring forms a new generation of candidate solutions.

Repeat steps 2 and 3 over a number of generations till convergence is achieved. The convergence criterion could be that the fitness of the best solution shows no improvement over a large number of successive generations, or GP has evolved over a pre-specified number of generations.

It may be noted that GP-based models while are good at interpolation, these are not so good at extrapolation. This weakness, which is shared by all nonlinear data-driven models, can be overcome by gathering more data in regions where extrapolation is desired.

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Published Online: 2015-4-3
Published in Print: 2016-2-1

©2016 by De Gruyter

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