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Dynamics of citrus pest populations following a major freeze in northern Florida

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Published/Copyright: November 5, 2025
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Florida Entomologist
From the journal Florida Entomologist Volume 108 Issue 1

Abstract

Cold-hardy citrus has gained prominence in North Florida’s fresh market. North Florida is less exposed to Huanglongbing and citrus canker than the rest of the state, but is more exposed to freezing events. Following the exceptional frost that occurred in December 2022, a two-year survey (2023–2024) assessed the abundance and seasonal patterns of citrus pests in three groves and in residential backyard citrus across North Florida. Citrus leafminer Phyllocnistis citrella Stainton (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae) dominated all groves, while the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), was recorded in backyard trees. The December 2022 frost had a minimal impact on ambrosia beetle and red scale populations, while the citrus leafminer population surged in the summer of 2023 compared to 2024. D. citri populations showed no significant seasonal or interannual fluctuations. Forecasting models exhibited strong accuracy for red scales and ambrosia beetles but higher error rates for citrus leafminers and D. citri, indicating varying degrees of temporal variability and persistence in their population dynamics. This study highlights species-specific responses to climatic shifts and informs targeted pest management strategies for North Florida’s citrus industry.

Resumen

Los cítricos resistentes al frío han ganado relevancia en el mercado de frutas para consumo en fresco del norte de Florida. Esta región está menos expuesta al Huanglongbing y al cancro de los cítrico que el resto del estado, pero es más susceptible a las heladas. Tras la helada excepcional ocurrida en diciembre de 2022, se realizó un estudio de dos años (2023–2024) para evaluar la abundancia y los patrones estacionales de plagas asociadas a cultivosde cítricos en tres huertos y en areas residenciales del norte de Florida. El minador de la hoja de los cítricos, Phyllocnistis citrella Stainton (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae), dominó en todos los huertos, mientras que el psílido asiático de los cítricos, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), prevaleció en los árboles de los patios residenciales. La helada de diciembre de 2022 tuvo un mínimo impacto en las poblaciones de escarabajos de la ambrosía y piojo rojo, mientras que la población de minador de la hoja aumentó en el verano de 2023 en comparación con 2024. Las poblaciones de D. citri no mostraron fluctuaciones estacionales o interanuales significativas. Los modelos de pronóstico mostraron una alta precisión para la piojo rojo y los escarabajos de la ambrosía, pero las tasas de error más altas para el minador de la hoja y D. citri, lo que indica diferentes grados de variabilidad temporal y persistencia en su dinámica poblacional. Este estudio destaca las respuestas específicas de cada especie a los cambios climáticos e informa acerca de estrategias de manejo de plagas dirigidas para la industria citrícola del norte de Florida.

Keywords: Asian citrus psyllids; citrus leafminer; California red scale; ambrosia beetles; freeze
Palabras clave: psílidos asiáticos de los cítricos; minador de la hoja de los cítricos; piojo rojo de California; escarabajos de la ambrosía; helada

1 Introduction

Florida’s agricultural industry is primarily dominated by citrus production, which benefits from the state’s climate and soil, ranking it among the largest citrus-producing regions in the United States (Luckstead and Devadoss 2021). Florida has long been known for producing high-quality citrus fruits (Miller and Glantz 1988), and citrus cultivation spans from south to north. In the south, citrus is primarily grown for processing, while in the north, it is largely grown for the fresh market through small-scale operations (Sprague and Martini 2022). In addition to commercial farms, many Florida residents grow their own citrus for consumption (Exilien et al. 2024, 2025). North Florida has experienced an increase in citrus production, driven by rising per capita consumption of fresh citrus (Neff 2020). The region has become a key area for cold-hardy citrus, with Satsuma mandarins (Citrus unshiu (Yu.Tanaka ex Swingle) Marcow.; Rutaceae) being the most widely grown variety in the north, marketed exclusively for fresh consumption (Martini and Andersen 2018; Martini et al. 2020).

Florida’s citrus industry faces persistent pest threats, most critically the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), which is the vector of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus, the bacterium causing the devastating citrus greening disease, also known as Huanglongbing (Bové 2006). Despite extensive control efforts, this pest remains a major challenge for citrus growers (Exilien et al. 2025; Limayem et al. 2024). While north Florida is still preserved from the disease (Martini et al. 2020), D. citri and citrus greening remain a concern since their detection in residential citrus plantings in Franklin and Bay counties (Martini et al. 2020), and more recently in Georgia (Collins et al. 2025). Other pests, such as scales, citrus mites, and citrus leafminer Phyllocnistis citrella Stainton (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae), are more prevalent in north Florida and contribute to economic losses. Citrus leafminer, first identified in Florida in 1993, has since become widespread, causing damage to young trees and new growth, while also promoting diseases, in particular citrus canker (Hall et al. 2010). Scales and mites further compromise fruit quality, thereby decreasing its marketability in the fresh fruit industry (Martini and Andersen 2018). Other opportunistic pests, such as ambrosia beetles, can exploit citrus stress caused by biotic or abiotic factors to colonize weakened trees (Martini et al. 2023).

Pest populations in North Florida exhibit seasonal fluctuations, with a sharp decline during freezing winters, followed by a rebound with new plant growth at the beginning of the growing season. However, it is not clear how this pest dynamic is affected following an exceptional freeze event. The only paper found on this topic was published in Florida Buggist (that became Florida Entomologist later) by United States Department of Agriculture entomologist William Yothers over one century ago (Selhime and Yothers 2008; Yothers 1917). While cold winters can affect the survival of some pests, post-freeze conditions with warm temperatures may promote pest proliferation, as new growths are produced by citrus that were defoliated following the freeze.

The exceptionally harsh freeze of December 2022 posed significant challenges for citrus growers and residents. North Florida has seen freezing temperatures in previous years; however, none lasted as long as the December 2022 freeze. In the Panhandle, freezing temperatures around −5 °C endured for 4 days, whereas similar events in recent years lasted less than an hour (IFAS 2023). This harsh winter caused significant damage to citrus trees, ranging from complete defoliation to tree death (Figure 1), leaving them more vulnerable to pests and diseases. While some pests may have been negatively affected by the freeze, we hypothesize that the rapid plant regrowth following the freeze may have facilitated the spread of other pests growing on new growth, as compared to the milder winter of 2023–2024.

Figure 1: Photographs showing freeze damage to citrus trees after the December 2022 freeze. Damage is shown in a young grove at the North Florida Research and Education Center (NFREC) (A and B), and in a residential citrus planting at Bristol, Liberty County (C). Photo credits: Kathi Malfa (A and B), Danielle Williams (UF/IFAS) (C).
Figure 1:

Photographs showing freeze damage to citrus trees after the December 2022 freeze. Damage is shown in a young grove at the North Florida Research and Education Center (NFREC) (A and B), and in a residential citrus planting at Bristol, Liberty County (C). Photo credits: Kathi Malfa (A and B), Danielle Williams (UF/IFAS) (C).

This study examines the population trends of citrus leafminer, red scales, and ambrosia beetles in citrus groves, and Asian citrus psyllid in backyard settings during the 2023–2024 period. It provides valuable insights for pest monitoring and management in both commercial and residential citrus production in North Florida.

2 Materials and methods

2.1 Study areas

The study was conducted over a two-year period at seven locations across five counties in North Florida, covering March–September 2023 and April–October 2024. The region experiences a humid subtropical climate with distinct seasonal variations, featuring hot, humid summers with average highs reaching 32 °C (90 °F) and frequent afternoon thunderstorms, and cooler winters with January highs averaging 18.3 °C (65 °F). Most annual precipitation occurs between June and September (Climate Data 2025). Frosts, which occur 10–30 times annually, are more frequent than elsewhere in Florida, varying by location (Parsons and Boman 2019). Over the past 12 years, temperatures in North Florida have generally not dropped below −6.7 °C (20 °F), with a few exceptions during the winters of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015. During those years, temperatures briefly dropped to −7.8 °C (18 °F) for 30 min and −6.9 °C (19.5 °F) for 15 min, respectively (IFAS 2023). The December 2022 freeze was especially devastating due to extended freezing temperatures between −8.1 (17.5 °F) and −6.7 °C (20 °F) for 11 h, with the temperature remaining at −8.3 °C (17 °F) for nearly an hour (IFAS 2023). In contrast, the 2023–2024 winter was much milder (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Winter temperature trends in the Florida Panhandle during 2022–2023 and 2023–2024 (data source: www.timeanddate.com).
Figure 2:

Winter temperature trends in the Florida Panhandle during 2022–2023 and 2023–2024 (data source: www.timeanddate.com).

2.2 Field selection

The study sampled three citrus groves across North Florida. The North Florida Research and Education Center (NFREC) (30.5450861 °N, 84.5944111 °W), located in Quincy (Gadsden County), is a University of Florida experimental farm established in 2011 to trial cold-hardy citrus varieties suited to the region (Andersen 2013). Two commercial farms were also included: High Hope Farms (HHF) (30.5500000 °N, 84.5833333 °W) in Quincy (Gadsden County) and Sweet Valley Citrus (SVC) (30.6273000 °N, 83.8317611 °W) in Monticello (Jefferson County). Both HHF and SVC cultivate cold-hardy cultivars such as satsuma mandarins (Citrus unshiu), navel oranges (Citrus sinensis L.), and Minneola honeybelle tangelo. All groves were monitored for citrus leafminer, red scales, and ambrosia beetles.

Citrus also were surveyed at six residential locations: one in Bristol (Liberty County); and five in Gulf Coast, including one in Eastpoint (Franklin County), three in Apalachicola (Franklin County), and one in Carabelle (Franklin County). These locations focused exclusively on monitoring Asian citrus psyllid populations, monitored in a previous study (Martini et al. 2020).

2.3 Seasonal abundance of citrus pests

All sampled trees were mature, with established histories of fruit production. Data collection occurred biweekly from March to September in 2023 and April to October in 2024.

For citrus leafminer, nine delta traps (Trécé Pherocon, Trécé Inc., Adair, Oklahoma, USA; three per grove) were deployed, each baited with a sex pheromone lure, Trécé Pherocon (Trécé Inc., Adair, Oklahoma, USA) and equipped with a sticky liner. Traps were spaced every three rows, starting from the seventh row, and lures were replaced every 6–10 weeks based on catch density. Captured adults were counted at each sampling date.

Red scale populations were assessed by randomly selecting 10 trees per grove. From each tree, four 15 cm branches (one per cardinal direction) and 20 leaves (five per direction) were collected, totaling 40 branches and 200 leaves per sampling date. Samples were brought back to the laboratory, where red scales were identified and counted. Florida red scale Chrysomphalus aonidum (L.) and California red scale Aonidiella aurantia (Maskell) counts were pooled together.

Ambrosia beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) were monitored using two trap types: sticky traps and ethanol-baited bottle traps (Govindaraju and Joseph 2025). Nine sticky traps (three per grove) were mounted on tree trunks 10–15 cm above ground, following the same spatial arrangement as citrus leafminer traps. Due to low beetle activity, traps were replaced only when damaged by environmental or management factors. Additionally, nine ethanol-baited bottle traps (three per grove) were installed near the first tree of each sampling row. These traps, constructed from soda bottles with a 70 % ethanol reservoir, were suspended 1 m above ground and filled with a 1 % blue dish-washing detergent (Dawn® Ultra, Procter & Gamble, Cincinnati, Ohio) solution. Captured insects were preserved in 70 % ethanol, filtered, and identified to the lowest taxonomic level using a stereo microscope. For statistical analysis, the different ambrosia beetle species were pooled together.

Finally, Asian citrus psyllids were surveyed monthly in backyard gardens. Adults were counted during 2- to 5-min visual inspections of entire trees. To assess eggs and nymphs, a 1 m2 quadrat was randomly positioned in each cardinal direction around the tree, and up to 10 flushes per direction were collected according to the previous protocol detailed in Martini et al. (2020). Samples were stored in zip-lock bags and transported to the laboratory, where eggs and nymphs were counted. In total, seven trees were sampled in Bristol, and 11 trees were sampled in Gulf Coast.

2.4 Statistical analyses

Statistical analyses were conducted in RStudio (v.4.0.2) using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) via the glmmTMB and MASS packages to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in pest abundance (citrus leafminer, red scales, ambrosia beetles, and Asian citrus psyllid) across study locations and years (2023–2024). Pest counts were modeled as the response variable, with location or date as a fixed factor. Poisson and negative binomial distributions were evaluated to address overdispersion. Model fit was assessed using residual diagnostics from DHARMa and performance packages, with the best-fitting model selected using the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC). Significant fixed effects were further analyzed with Tukey’s Honestly Significant Difference post hoc test (α = 0.05). To investigate temporal dynamics more closely, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to analyze population trends. ARIMA is well-suited for time-series data as it accounts for temporal autocorrelation and identifies underlying patterns in pest populations over time. This provides a better understanding of how pest populations evolve and respond to environmental conditions throughout the study period.

3 Results

3.1 Pest abundance and spatial variation

Total pest counts during 2023–2024 included 95,302 citrus leafminers, 143 ambrosia beetles, and 227 red scales. In backyard plantations, D. citri total counts reached 101 adults, 1,350 nymphs, and 1,707 eggs.

During the sampling period, ambrosia beetle and red scale abundances did not differ significantly between locations (Ambrosia beetles: χ2 = 5.263, df = 2, P = 0.072; red scales: χ2 = 4.087, df = 2, P = 0.130; Figure 3A and C). In contrast, citrus leafminer populations varied significantly, with the highest abundance observed at Sweet Valley Citrus (SVC) in Monticello (χ2 = 10.392, df = 2, P < 0.005; Figure 3B).

Figure 3: Abundance of citrus pests (mean ±SEM) pooled across all sampling dates: (A) red scales, (B) citrus leafminer, and (C) ambrosia beetles. Surveyed locations include the North Florida Research and Education Center (NFREC) and High Hope Farms (HHF) in Quincy, and Sweet Valley Citrus (SVC) in Monticello. Different letters indicate significant differences between the locations (P < 0.05).
Figure 3:

Abundance of citrus pests (mean ±SEM) pooled across all sampling dates: (A) red scales, (B) citrus leafminer, and (C) ambrosia beetles. Surveyed locations include the North Florida Research and Education Center (NFREC) and High Hope Farms (HHF) in Quincy, and Sweet Valley Citrus (SVC) in Monticello. Different letters indicate significant differences between the locations (P < 0.05).

Asian citrus psyllid populations also exhibited significant spatial variation. The highest D. citri abundance was recorded in the backyard in Bristol across all life stages (adults: χ2 = 28.114, df = 1, P < 0.0001; nymphs: χ2 = 32.096, df = 1, P < 0.0001; eggs: χ2 = 36.831, df = 1, P < 0.0001; Figure 4).

Figure 4: Abundance of Asian citrus psyllid (ACP) life stages (mean ±SEM) in backyard citrus plantings: (A) nymphs, (B) adults, and (C) eggs. Locations include Bristol (Liberty County), Apalachicola, Eastpoint, and Carabelle (Franklin County). Different letters indicate significant differences between the locations (P < 0.05).
Figure 4:

Abundance of Asian citrus psyllid (ACP) life stages (mean ±SEM) in backyard citrus plantings: (A) nymphs, (B) adults, and (C) eggs. Locations include Bristol (Liberty County), Apalachicola, Eastpoint, and Carabelle (Franklin County). Different letters indicate significant differences between the locations (P < 0.05).

3.2 Temporal variation in pest abundance (2023–2024)

3.2.1 Citrus leafminer

Across all survey sites, citrus leafminer populations did not differ significantly between 2023 and 2024 (GLMM, negative binomial: χ2 = 0.002, df = 1, P ≥ 0.965). However, populations showed marked seasonal fluctuations, with distinct peaks following the 2023 winter freeze. In 2023, citrus leafminer activity peaked in June at NFREC/Quincy (GLMM, negative binomial: χ2 = 34.277, df = 6, P < 0.0001) and HHF/Quincy (χ2 = 62.422, df = 6, P < 0.0001), and in July at SVC/Monticello (χ2 = 62.422, df = 6, P < 0.0001). In 2024, citrus leafminer activity peaks shifted to October across all locations (NFREC: χ2 = 50.423, df = 6, P < 0.0001; HHF: χ2 = 77.026, df = 6, P < 0.0001; SVC: χ2 = 233.63, df = 6, P < 0.0001; Figure 5A).

Figure 5: Monthly abundance of citrus pests in North Florida citrus groves (mean ±SEM), including North Florida Research Education Center (NFREC), High Hope Farms (HHF), and Sweet Valley Citrus (SVC) during 2023–2024: (A) citrus leafminer, (B) ambrosia beetles, and (C) red scales. Asterisk (*) indicates a significant difference between the two years. Asterisks indicates a significant difference between the two year (*: P < 0.05, **: P < 0.01, ***: P < 0.001).
Figure 5:

Monthly abundance of citrus pests in North Florida citrus groves (mean ±SEM), including North Florida Research Education Center (NFREC), High Hope Farms (HHF), and Sweet Valley Citrus (SVC) during 2023–2024: (A) citrus leafminer, (B) ambrosia beetles, and (C) red scales. Asterisk (*) indicates a significant difference between the two years. Asterisks indicates a significant difference between the two year (*: P < 0.05, **: P < 0.01, ***: P < 0.001).

Interannual comparisons revealed significant differences at NFREC/Quincy, with higher citrus leafminer populations in April–June 2023 than in 2024 (GLM quasipoisson: April: χ2 = 19.328, df = 1, P < 0.0001; May: χ2 = 141.9, df = 1, P < 0.0001; June: χ2 = 18.895, df = 1, P < 0.0001). A similar trend was observed at HHF/Quincy, where citrus leafminer counts were higher in June 2023 compared to 2024 (χ2 = 78.673, df = 1, P < 0.0001); however, populations were more abundant in September 2024 than in 2023 (χ2 = 13.5, df = 1, P < 0.001). At SVC/Monticello, higher populations of citrus leafminer were observed in June and July 2023 than in 2024 (June: χ2 = 6.145, df = 1, P < 0.013; July: χ2 = 26.314, df = 1, P < 0.0001) (Figure 5A).

3.3 Ambrosia beetle

Among the ambrosia beetle species (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) collected, we identified seven distinct species: Cnestus mutilatus (Blandford) (n = 1), Dryoxylon onoharaense (Murayama) (n = 3), Xyleborus affinis Eichhoff (n = 3), Xyleborus bispinatus Eichhoff (n = 2), Xyleborus pubescens Zimmermann (n = 5), Xyleborinus saxesenii (Ratzeburg) (n = 45), and Xylosandrus crassiusculus (Motschulsky) (n = 34). Vouchers have been conserved in the laboratory at the NFREC.

Ambrosia beetle populations showed no significant variations between 2023 and 2024 (GLMM negative binomial, χ2 = 0.685, df = 1, P ≥ 0.407) or within sites each year. Within year comparisons of ambrosia beetle abundance were non-significant for 2023 (NFREC/Quincy: χ2 = 0.681, df = 6, P ≥ 0.995; HHF/Quincy: χ2 = 0.027, df = 6, P ≥ 1; SVC/Monticello: χ2 = 5.585, df = 6, P ≥ 0.471) and 2024 (NFREC/Quincy: χ2 = 9.876, df = 6, P ≥ 0.13, HHF/Quincy: χ2 = 0.095, df = 6, P ≥ 0.095; SVC/Monticello: χ2 = 0.681, df = 6, P ≥ 0.995; Figure 5B). However, at NFREC/Quincy significant temporal variation in ambrosia beetle abundance occurred, with higher populations recorded in May and June 2024 compared to 2023 (GLM quasipoisson, May: χ2 = 12.797, df = 1, P < 0.001; June: χ2 = 7.471, df = 1, P < 0.006). A similar increase in ambrosia beetle abundance was observed at HHF/Quincy in June 2024 compared to 2023 (χ2 = 14.942, df = 1 P < 0.0001). However, higher ambrosia beetle populations were recorded at SVC/Monticello in July–September 2023 compared to 2024 (July: χ2 = 5.941, df = 1, P < 0.014; August: χ2 = 85.857, df = 1, P < 0.0001; September: χ2 = 5.941, df = 1, P < 0.014).

3.4 Red scales

In all collected samples, red scales were found only on branches. Red scale populations showed a marginal increase in 2024 relative to 2023 across locations (GLMM negative binomial, χ2 = 3.228, df = 1, P ≥ 0.072), but overall remained stable within 2023 (GLMM, negative binomial, NFREC/Quincy: χ2 = 0.065, df = 6, P ≥ 1; HHF/Quincy: χ2 = 0.515, df = 6, P ≥ 0.997; SVC/Monticello: χ2 = 1.012, df = 6, P ≥ 0.985) and 2024 (NFREC/Quincy: χ2 = 4.036, df = 6, P ≥ 0.672; HHF/Quincy: χ2 = 3.41, df = 6, P ≥ 0.756; SVC/Monticello: χ2 = 0; df = 6, P ≥ 1; Figure 5C). Interannual differences in red scale abundance were observed only at NFREC/Quincy, with increased populations in April and July 2024 compared to 2023 (GLM quasipoisson, April: χ2 = 7.412, df = 1, P < 0.006; July: χ2 = 4.6, df = 1, P < 0.032). A significant increase in red scale populations also was observed at HHF/Quincy in April 2024 (χ2 = 9.786, df = 1, P < 0.001). No variations were observed at SVC/Monticello where red scale populations were very low (April: χ2 = 0.879; May: χ2 = 1.39e-14; June: χ2 = 1.39e-14; July: χ2 = 1.39e-14; August: χ2 = 3.07e-14; September: χ2 = 1.39e-14, all df = 1, P ≥ 0.05) (Figure 5C).

3.5 Asian citrus psyllid population trends

Adult and nymphal Asian citrus psyllid populations were pooled for statistical analysis to provide a more integrated view of overall population dynamics and to enhance model robustness, particularly at sites with low individual stage counts. No significant fluctuations in D. citri abundance were detected in the Gulf Coast (GLMM negative binomial, 2023: χ2 = 0.721, df = 7, P ≥ 0.99; 2024: χ2 = 0.004, df = 6, P ≥ 1). However, there was a significant population peak of D. citri in July 2024 in Bristol (2024: χ2 = 25.826, df = 6, P < 0.0001; Figure 6).

Figure 6: Monthly abundance of Asian citrus psyllid (ACP) in residential backyard citrus plantings (mean ±SEM) at Bristol, and Gulf Coast (Apalachicola, Eastpoint and Carabelle) locations during 2023–2024.
Figure 6:

Monthly abundance of Asian citrus psyllid (ACP) in residential backyard citrus plantings (mean ±SEM) at Bristol, and Gulf Coast (Apalachicola, Eastpoint and Carabelle) locations during 2023–2024.

Interannual comparisons (2023 vs. 2024) revealed no significant differences across locations. In Bristol, monthly comparisons of D. citri abundance showed no notable variations (GLM quasipoisson, April: χ2 = 1.878; May: χ2 = 2.996; June–July: χ2 = 2.922; August: χ2 = 2.542; September–October: χ2 = 0; all df = 1, P ≥ 0.05). Similarly, in the Gulf coast there were no significant monthly differences in D. citri abundance (April: χ2 = 0; May–June: χ2 = 2.772; July: χ2 = 2.941; August: χ2 = 0.376; September: χ2 = 2.993; October: χ2 = 0; all df = 1, P ≥ 0.05)

3.6 Dynamics of citrus pest populations based on ARIMA model forecasting

The ARIMA model results revealed distinct characteristics in the population dynamics of each pest (Table 1). The model showed moderate accuracy for Asian citrus psyllid (RMSE = 155.13) and weak negative autocorrelation (AR(1) = −0.15), suggesting significant population fluctuations with limited short-term persistence. Citrus leafminer, with a strong initial population (intercept = 1,647.15) and positive autocorrelation (AR(1) = 0.21), persisted and grew over successive periods. However, it exhibited the highest prediction uncertainty (RMSE = 1,630.05), indicating high variability despite its initial abundance. Red scale displayed the best model fit, with minimal prediction error (RMSE = 9.62) and low variability (σ2 = 92.59), indicating stable and predictable population dynamics. Finally, ambrosia beetles showed negligible autocorrelation (AR(1) = 0.02) and the lowest forecast error (RMSE = 3.93), suggesting that their population is largely driven by random fluctuations with little predictable trend.

Table 1:

Autoregressive integrated moving average model parameters and performance metrics for forecasting citrus pest populations in North Florida groves and backyard citrus (2023–2024) following the 2022–2023 freeze.

Category Citrus pests
ACP Citrus leafminer Red scale Ambrosia beetle
AR (1) Coefficient −0.15 0.21 −0.06 0.02
Intercept 98.43 1,647.15 3.9 2.46
σ2 24,066 2,657,078 92.59 15.48
Log Likelihood −96.96 −511.31 −213.62 −161.75
AIC 199.92 1,028.62 433.24 329.5
RMSE 155.13 1,630.05 9.62 3.93
MAE 92.81 1,313.63 5.79 3.13
ACF1 −0.02 −0.03 0.005 0.0004

  1. ACP: Asian citrus psyllid. Notes: AR (1) Coefficient: Reflects autocorrelation between current and prior population counts (positive/negative values indicate persistence/reversal trends). Intercept: Baseline population level. σ2: Variance in population data. RMSE/MAE: Lower values indicate better prediction accuracy. ACF1: Autocorrelation at lag 1, highlighting trend consistency.

4 Discussion

The results from field sampling indicated that citrus leafminer was the most prevalent pest in North Florida citrus groves during the 2023–2024 sampling period. Red scale and ambrosia beetles constituted minor populations. Asian citrus psyllid was found in residential areas as in Martini et al. (2020). While we did not specifically sample for Asian citrus psyllid in citrus groves, we did not encounter any specimens in commercial groves during the two-year study.

The citrus leafminer is one of the primary insect pests facing growers in northern Florida (Martini and Sprague 2021). During the study, leafminer populations were more abundant in Monticello compared to other groves. Leafminer damage compromises leaf cuticles, increasing risks of disease, especially citrus canker caused by Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. citri Starr and Garces (Lysobacterales: Lysobacteraceae) (Costa et al. 2024; Hall et al. 2010). We found that the density of citrus leafminer was significantly affected by the 2023 freeze, as a dramatic peak occurred in spring 2023, contrasting with delayed growth in late fall 2024. In contrast, red scale and ambrosia beetle populations remained low across all sampled locations and were not affected by the freeze. Despite their scarcity, red scales pose a persistent threat to North Florida’s fresh-market citrus, where fruit quality directly impacts economic returns. Infestations can downgrade fruit, reducing marketability (Martini and Andersen 2018). While natural enemies, including parasitoids and predators, can suppress populations at low densities (Martinez-Ferrer et al. 2003; Sorribas and Garcia-Marí 2010), chemical interventions are often required during outbreaks to protect commercially viable yields. Ambrosia beetle populations peaked in the springs of 2023 and 2024 at the NFREC in Quincy, and in summer 2023 in Monticello.

Differences in pest abundance may reflect variations in reproductive biology and natural control. Citrus leafminer is highly prolific, with multiple generations annually (Heppner 1993), and appears to be weakly regulated by parasitoids in North Florida, where natural enemies such as Ageniaspis citricola Logvinovskaya (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) may have limited impact (Hoy and Nguyen 1994; Peña et al. 1996). In contrast, red scale species, both California and Florida red scale, reproduce more slowly and are often effectively suppressed by parasitoids from the Aphytis genus (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae) (Martinez-Ferrer et al. 2003; Murdoch et al. 2006; Steinberg et al. 1987), which may explain their consistently low densities. Ambrosia beetles are opportunistic pests that primarily infest stressed, damaged, or declining trees, with outbreaks driven more by abiotic and biotic stressors such as freezing, flooding, or drought rather than biological control (Goldberg and Heine 2009; Martini et al. 2023; Ranger et al. 2013, 2016).

Furthermore, extreme cold events such as the 2023 freeze may differentially impact pest species and their natural enemies. While pests such as citrus leafminer survived and even resurged post-freeze, biocontrol agents may suffer population declines following frost (Le Lann et al. 2021), potentially disrupting biological control services and allowing pest resurgence in the subsequent season. Incorporating long-term monitoring of natural enemies could help clarify these dynamics in future studies.

No Asian citrus psyllids were observed on citrus trees or leaf samples in experimental and commercial groves in Quincy and Monticello during the study, aligning with Martini et al. (2020), who reported geographic isolation of D. citri in residential plantings along Florida’s Gulf and Atlantic coasts. However, monitoring in Bristol, and Gulf Coast (Apalachicola, Eastpoint, and Carrabelle) confirmed Asian citrus psyllid presence in residential areas, with all life stages (eggs, nymphs, adults) detected over the two-year period. The highest D. citri infestation was reported for Bristol, accounting for 92 % of adults/nymphs and 91 % of eggs collected. These results suggest stable to lower Asian citrus psyllid populations compared to earlier studies (Martini et al. 2020), likely due to prolonged frosts in northern Florida, and the decline of trees infected by Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus.

Pest population dynamics in North Florida citrus groves during 2023–2024 exhibited species-specific responses to climatic stressors. The 2023 frost period had minimal impact on ambrosia beetle and red scale populations, except in Monticello, where ambrosia beetles surged dramatically in summer 2023. Citrus leafminer populations exhibited contrasting trends: a population surge occurred in summer 2023 following the frost, whereas in 2024, population growth shifted to late fall. This variation aligns with the pattern of flush growth, as increased flush abundance is positively correlated with higher citrus leafminer densities (Dahmane and Chakali 2022; Muñoz et al. 2008). The harsh freeze of December 2022 resulted in the complete defoliation of citrus trees, unlike the milder winter of 2024. As a result, sudden temperature shifts following frost events may have promoted increased flush emergence on defoliated trees, leading to earlier and potentially explosive citrus leafminer activity. This finding contrasts with the study by Lim and Hoy (2006), which proposed that citrus leafminer overwinters on the limited flushes available during winter in central and southern Florida. In their study, citrus leafminers did not exhibit reproductive diapause, even under short-day conditions that typically induce dormancy in other species. Instead, larvae and pupae continued to develop, suggesting that, in the absence of new flushes, the pest may overwinter by remaining in immature stages until conditions improve. In other leafminer systems, several established overwintering mechanisms provide survival advantages under cold conditions. Some species seek microhabitats that provide thermal buffering, such as bark crevices or leaf litter, which can moderate temperature extremes and enhance survival (Krawczyk 2023; Wagner et al. 2012). In apple orchards, certain leafminer species survive winter by pupating within fallen leaves on the ground, thus avoiding exposure to lethal cold (Krawczyk 2023). In our study sites, no flushes were observed during winter 2022–2023 following the defoliation of the trees, further implying that citrus leafminer may survive through other, yet unidentified, mechanisms or migrate in early spring from South Florida; these hypotheses warrant further investigation. Exploring whether citrus leafminer uses microhabitats for thermal refuge, enters diapause stages, or exhibits migratory behavior could provide critical insights into its overwintering biology and improve management strategies.

Asian citrus psyllid populations in residential backyard citrus trees remained stable between 2023 and 2024, with no significant seasonal or interannual fluctuations despite cold winters. These findings confirm those from Martini et al. (2022) that demonstrated cold acclimation of Asian citrus psyllid in laboratory conditions. A localized peak in D. citri abundance was noted in Bristol in July 2024. Low overall D. citri abundance may reflect both climatic constraints and limited flush availability, a critical resource for psyllid reproduction and development (Bibi et al. 2021; Kistner et al. 2016; Martini et al. 2016; Sétamou et al. 2016a). The predominance of mature citrus trees with reduced flushing capacity in the study areas seems to have further restricted population expansion. The peak in D. citri abundance in Bristol in July 2024 may be explained by a localized flush event, potentially triggered by microclimatic conditions that stimulated new shoot growth. Given Asian citrus psyllid’s strong attraction to young flush, even short-lived increases in flush density can elicit rapid population responses at small spatial scales (Sétamou et al. 2016b).

In conclusion, cold winters can exert species-specific effects on pest populations. While frost may suppress some pests, abrupt post-frost warming can also trigger outbreaks in species such as citrus leafminer. These findings underscore the need for tailored management strategies in northern Florida’s citrus groves and backyard citrus trees that account for both climatic variability and pest life cycle dynamics. Although our preliminary models provided useful insight into red scale and ambrosia beetle trends, they were less reliable for pests with more volatile dynamics, such as citrus leafminer and Asian citrus psyllid. Given the short, two-year observation period, model outputs should be interpreted cautiously. Still, the observed patterns highlight the importance of long-term monitoring to support predictive tools and refine integrated pest management (IPM) strategies based on species-specific behavior and environmental sensitivity.

Corresponding author: Xavier Martini, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, Department of Entomology and Nematology, North Florida Research and Education Center (NFREC), University of Florida, 155 Research Rd, Quincy, 32351, USA, E-mail:

Funding source: Agricultural Research Service

Award Identifier / Grant number: 2025-70029-44038

Funding source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Award Identifier / Grant number: FLA-NFC-006275

Funding source: National Institute of Food and Agriculture

Award Identifier / Grant number: 2021-70006-35560

Acknowledgments

We thank the members of the NFREC who assisted in the data collection, the homeowners and the two citrus growers who allowed us to collect samples in their properties.

  1. Research ethics: Not applicable.

  2. Informed consent: Not applicable.

  3. Author contributions: RE: Data collection and curation; formal analysis; investigation; visualization; writing-original draft; writing-review and editing. DC: Data collection, investigation; writing-review and editing. KM: Data collection, investigation; writing-review and editing. IS: Data collection, investigation; writing-review and editing. XM: Conceptualization; formal analysis; funding acquisition; methodology; supervision; writing.

  4. Use of Large Language Models, AI and Machine Learning Tools: None declared.

  5. Conflict of interest: All authors declare no conflicts of interest.

  6. Research funding: Funding for this document was provided by U.S. Department of Agriculture (FLA-NFC-006275), Agricultural Research Service (2025-70029-44038) and USDA-NIFA CPPM EIP Award No. 2021-70006-35560 obtained by a consortium of scientists led by Dr. Norm Leppla from the University of Florida.

  7. Data availability: Data are deposited in the University of Florida Cloud system, and available by request to the corresponding author.

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Received: 2025-04-23
Accepted: 2025-09-19
Published Online: 2025-11-05

© 2025 the author(s), published by De Gruyter on behalf of the Florida Entomological Society

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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  50. Review: Harbach, R.E. 2024. The Composition and Nature of the Culicidae (Mosquitoes). Centre for Agriculture and Bioscience International and the Royal Entomological Society, United Kingdom. ISBN 9781800627994
  51. Retraction
  52. Retraction of: Examining phenotypic variations in an introduced population of the invasive dung beetle Digitonthophagus gazella (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae)
https://doi.org/10.1515/flaent-2025-0013
Keywords for this article
Asian citrus psyllids; citrus leafminer; California red scale; ambrosia beetles; freeze
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Articles in the same Issue

  1. Frontmatter
  2. Research Articles
  3. Life history descriptions of two aquatic Florida moth species (Lepidoptera: Crambidae)
  4. Higher Apoidea activity on centipedegrass lawns than on dicotyledonous plants
  5. Dynamics of citrus pest populations following a major freeze in northern Florida
  6. Control of Drosophila melanogaster (Diptera: Drosophilidae) by trapping with banana vinegar
  7. Establishment, distribution, and preliminary phenological trends of a new planthopper in the genus Patara (Hemiptera: Derbidae) in South Florida, United States of America
  8. Comparative evaluation of the infestation of five varieties of citrus by the larvae of Anastrepha ludens (Diptera: Tephritidae)
  9. Impact of land use on the density of Bulimulus bonariensis (Stylommatophora: Bulimulidae) and its parasitic mite, Austreynetes sp. (Trombidiformes: Ereynetidae)
  10. First record of native seed beetle Stator limbatus (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) on invasive earleaf acacia in Florida
  11. Establishment and monitoring of a sentinel garden of Asian tree species in Florida to assess potential insect pest risks
  12. Parasitism of Halyomorpha halys and Nezara viridula (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) sentinel eggs in Central Florida
  13. Genetic differentiation of three populations of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), in Mexico
  14. Tortricidae (Lepidoptera) associated with blueberry cultivation in Central Mexico
  15. First report of Phidotricha erigens (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae: Epipaschiinae) injuring mango inflorescences in Puerto Rico
  16. Seed predation of Sabal palmetto, Sabal mexicana and Sabal uresana (Arecaceae) by the bruchid Caryobruchus gleditsiae (Coleoptera: Bruchidae), with new host and distribution records
  17. Genetic variation of rice stink bugs, Oebalus spp. (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) from Southeastern United States and Cuba
  18. Selecting Coriandrum sativum (Apiaceae) varieties to promote conservation biological control of crop pests in south Florida
  19. First record of Mymarommatidae (Hymenoptera) from the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador
  20. First field validation of Ontsira mellipes (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) as a potential biological control agent for Anoplophora glabripennis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in South Carolina
  21. Field evaluation of α-copaene enriched natural oil lure for detection of male Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae) in area-wide monitoring programs: results from Tunisia, Costa Rica and Hawaii
  22. Abundance of Megalurothrips usitatus (Bagnall) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) and other thrips in commercial snap bean fields in the Homestead Agricultural Area (HAA)
  23. Performance of Salvinia molesta (Salviniae: Salviniaceae) and its biological control agent Cyrtobagous salviniae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in freshwater and saline environments
  24. Natural arsenal of Magnolia sarcotesta: insecticidal activity against the leaf-cutting ant Atta mexicana (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)
  25. Ethanol concentration can influence the outcomes of insecticide evaluation of ambrosia beetle attacks using wood bolts
  26. Post-release support of host range predictions for two Lygodium microphyllum biological control agents
  27. Missing jewels: the decline of a wood-nesting forest bee, Augochlora pura (Hymenoptera: Halictidae), in northern Georgia
  28. Biological response of Rhopalosiphum padi and Sipha flava (Hemiptera: Aphididae) changes over generations
  29. Argopistes tsekooni (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), a new natural enemy of Chinese privet in North America: identification, establishment, and host range
  30. A non-overwintering urban population of the African fig fly (Diptera: Drosophilidae) impacts the reproductive output of locally adapted fruit flies
  31. Fitness of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae) on four economically important host fruits from Fujian Province, China
  32. Carambola fruit fly in Brazil: new host and first record of associated parasitoids
  33. Establishment and range expansion of invasive Cactoblastis cactorum (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae: Phycitinae) in Texas
  34. A micro-anatomical investigation of dark and light-adapted eyes of Chilades pandava (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae)
  35. Scientific Notes
  36. Evaluation of food attractants based on fig fruit for field capture of the black fig fly, Silba adipata (Diptera: Lonchaeidae)
  37. Exploring the potential of Amblyseius largoensis (Acari: Phytoseiidae) as a biological control agent against Aceria litchii (Acari: Eriophyidae) on lychee plants
  38. Early stragglers of periodical cicadas (Hemiptera: Cicadidae) found in Louisiana
  39. Attraction of released male Mediterranean fruit flies to trimedlure and an α-copaene-containing natural oil: effects of lure age and distance
  40. Co-infestation with Drosophila suzukii and Zaprionus indianus (Diptera: Drosophilidae): a threat for berry crops in Morelos, Mexico
  41. Observation of brood size and altricial development in Centruroides hentzi (Arachnida: Buthidae) in Florida, USA
  42. New quarantine cold treatment for medfly Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae) in pomegranates
  43. A new invasive pest in Mexico: the presence of Thrips parvispinus (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) in chili pepper fields
  44. Acceptance of fire ant baits by nontarget ants in Florida and California
  45. Examining phenotypic variations in an introduced population of the invasive dung beetle Digitonthophagus gazella (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae)
  46. Note on the nesting biology of Epimelissodes aegis LaBerge (Hymenoptera: Apidae)
  47. Mass rearing protocol and density trials of Lilioceris egena (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), a biological control agent of air potato
  48. Cardinal predation of the invasive Jorō spider Trichophila clavata (Araneae: Nephilidae) in Georgia
  49. Book Reviews
  50. Review: Harbach, R.E. 2024. The Composition and Nature of the Culicidae (Mosquitoes). Centre for Agriculture and Bioscience International and the Royal Entomological Society, United Kingdom. ISBN 9781800627994
  51. Retraction
  52. Retraction of: Examining phenotypic variations in an introduced population of the invasive dung beetle Digitonthophagus gazella (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae)
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