Band 26, Heft 2 -

The paper examines the effects of military spending using disaggregated unemployment statistics by gender and age group for the period 1948–2017 in the case of the USA. Findings from quantile regression analysis do not seem to point to any robust evidence supporting the thesis that defence spending quashes unemployment levels. This finding appears to be the case across all groups of unemployed persons. In fact, the results suggest a negative effect on unemployment.

When economic sanctions are directed against a target state by a sender state, the sender obviously wants third countries to participate with the sanctions and can apply pressure on them to prevent sanctions busting behaviour. But why does sanctions busting vary, so that the target’s trade with some third-countries increases but with others decreases? In this paper I offer two improvements to the analysis of sanctions busting: a theoretical framework that recognises how the effects of covariates on sanctions busting can only be identified if we treat them as more conditional than previous studies have done, and a gravity model that captures these conditional effects while also addressing several common specification errors. Applying these improvements to data for 1950–2006 significantly alters some of the central findings contained in previous research about sanctions busting.

Under what circumstances does a flood contribute to political disorder in Sub-Saharan Africa? Why has Accra experienced post-flood disorder and Abidjan not? This paper sheds light on the question: Why do some cities in Sub-Saharan Africa experience post-flood disorder while others do not? Given the expected urban population growth across Africa, its implications for the local infrastructure and climate-related changes in precipitation, this paper assumes that patterns of urban political disorder respond to those conditions in times of disasters. This contribution makes the argument that it is the socio-economic and political context that matters in the development of post-flood-related disorder. A conceptual framework is introduced that includes the role of contextual factors on the pathway from disasters to post-flood disorder. Drawing on that model, a Qualitative Comparative Analysis of 26 cases in Sub-Saharan Africa is used to test three scenarios. It suggests that a prompt post-flood response does not prevent the onset of disorder, but indeed proves to be a condition linked to the development of hostilities. The analysis found evidence that disorder occurred in cases that were marked by rapid political response to the flood. The study also unveiled the significant role of the areas that were flooded. If the flood predominantly hit marginalized neighborhoods, the likelihood of disorder increased. In contrast, the mere existence of a youth bulge or rapid urbanization per se seems to have a negligible impact on the development of unrest.

This paper investigates the consequences for inter-group conflicts of terrorist attacks. I study the 2015 Baga massacre, a large scale attack conducted by Boko Haram at the far North-East state of Borno, Nigeria, as a quasi-natural experiment and examine a set of attitudes in the aftermath of the event of Christians and Muslims throughout the country. Comparing individuals, outside the region of Borno, interviewed by Afrobarometer immediately after the massacre and those interviewed the days before within same regions and holding fixed a number of individual characteristics, I document that the informational exposure to the event rendered Christians less amiable to neighboring Muslims and Muslims less likely to recognize the legitimacy of the state. Nonetheless, Muslims increased their view of the elections as a device to remove leaders in office, event that took place 2 months later with the election of the challenger, Muhammadu Buhari. My findings indicate that terrorist attacks may generate a relevant and heterogeneous backlash across ethnic groups.

Exploring the hypothesis that socio-economic discrimination contributes to conflict occurrence, we show that the experience of a large country that have gone through a big-bang shift from centralized to decentralized system and introduced direct local elections, confirms the link. Using the case of Indonesia, and by controlling for poverty, demand-induced resource scarcity, and institutional variables, it is revealed that income polarization and inequality at the provincial level explain the occurrence of violent conflict (causing at least 1 death), be it for total or for different types. The results are robust to a series of model specifications. For understanding its impact on conflict, polarization is found more important than income inequality as a measure of socio-economic discrimination.