Natural Disasters and Political Disorder: Why Urban Flooding Turns Violent. Applying a Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis

Erik Plänitz

doi:10.1515/peps-2019-0046

Abstract

Under what circumstances does a flood contribute to political disorder in Sub-Saharan Africa? Why has Accra experienced post-flood disorder and Abidjan not? This paper sheds light on the question: Why do some cities in Sub-Saharan Africa experience post-flood disorder while others do not? Given the expected urban population growth across Africa, its implications for the local infrastructure and climate-related changes in precipitation, this paper assumes that patterns of urban political disorder respond to those conditions in times of disasters. This contribution makes the argument that it is the socio-economic and political context that matters in the development of post-flood-related disorder. A conceptual framework is introduced that includes the role of contextual factors on the pathway from disasters to post-flood disorder. Drawing on that model, a Qualitative Comparative Analysis of 26 cases in Sub-Saharan Africa is used to test three scenarios. It suggests that a prompt post-flood response does not prevent the onset of disorder, but indeed proves to be a condition linked to the development of hostilities. The analysis found evidence that disorder occurred in cases that were marked by rapid political response to the flood. The study also unveiled the significant role of the areas that were flooded. If the flood predominantly hit marginalized neighborhoods, the likelihood of disorder increased. In contrast, the mere existence of a youth bulge or rapid urbanization per se seems to have a negligible impact on the development of unrest.

Keywords: climate change; disaster; extreme weather; sub-Sahara Africa; urban disorder

Acknowledgements

Thanks to Gudrun Østby, Benno Pokorny, Andreas Mehler, Christian von Lübke and Felix Ettensperger for their comments on earlier versions of this paper.

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