Polarization and Local Conflicts in Post Decentralization Indonesia
-
Iwan J. Azis
and
Alvin Pratama
Abstract
Exploring the hypothesis that socio-economic discrimination contributes to conflict occurrence, we show that the experience of a large country that have gone through a big-bang shift from centralized to decentralized system and introduced direct local elections, confirms the link. Using the case of Indonesia, and by controlling for poverty, demand-induced resource scarcity, and institutional variables, it is revealed that income polarization and inequality at the provincial level explain the occurrence of violent conflict (causing at least 1 death), be it for total or for different types. The results are robust to a series of model specifications. For understanding its impact on conflict, polarization is found more important than income inequality as a measure of socio-economic discrimination.
Correction note
Correction added after online publication on June 4, 2020: In a previous version of this article, Alvin Pratama’s affiliation was mistakenly stated as “University of Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia”.
Results of negative binomial regression for violent conflict between citizens following full swing direct local elections (2008, 2011, 2014).
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polarization | 23.89*** | 22.70*** | 29.70*** | 28.70*** | 32.80*** |
| (7.688) | (7.751) | (9.089) | (8.809) | (9.105) | |
| Inequality | 3.409 | 3.075 | 3.683 | 4.843 | 3.997 |
| (3.277) | (3.502) | (3.506) | (3.500) | (3.474) | |
| Poverty | 0.0469*** | 0.0485*** | 0.0368** | 0.0316** | 0.0272 |
| (0.0123) | (0.0131) | (0.0154) | (0.0147) | (0.0166) | |
| Log population | 0.0778 | 0.0391 | 0.0334 | 0.0930 | |
| (0.131) | (0.136) | (0.135) | (0.136) | ||
| Democratic institution | −1.891* | −1.950** | −1.739* | ||
| (0.995) | (0.983) | (0.982) | |||
| Political rights | −0.454 | −0.256 | |||
| (0.562) | (0.542) | ||||
| Share of mining | 0.176** | ||||
| (0.0846) | |||||
| Constant | −4.634*** | −4.432*** | 2.367 | 4.284 | 1.875 |
| (1.493) | (1.520) | (3.870) | (4.123) | (4.037) | |
| Observations | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| AIC | 5.515 | 5.531 | 5.521 | 5.537 | 5.516 |
| BIC | 104.023 | 108.226 | 109.875 | 114.056 | 114.535 |
Robust standard errors in parentheses ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1
Results of negative binomial regression for violent conflict between villages following full swing direct local elections (2008, 2011, 2014).
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polarization | 13.46 | 5.354 | 5.852 | 5.932 | 5.646 |
| (11.07) | (11.43) | (11.34) | (11.12) | (11.27) | |
| Inequality | 8.834*** | 8.486** | 8.606** | 6.688* | 6.723* |
| (3.376) | (3.892) | (3.855) | (3.902) | (3.924) | |
| Poverty | 0.0663*** | 0.0761*** | 0.0744*** | 0.0826*** | 0.0828*** |
| (0.0148) | (0.0163) | (0.0182) | (0.0205) | (0.0203) | |
| Log population | 0.334*** | 0.330*** | 0.355*** | 0.350*** | |
| (0.124) | (0.124) | (0.119) | (0.127) | ||
| Democratic institution | –0.245 | –0.0381 | –0.0191 | ||
| (1.004) | (1.037) | (1.030) | |||
| Political rights | 0.747 | 0.724 | |||
| (0.757) | (0.776) | ||||
| Share of mining | –0.0177 | ||||
| (0.0928) | |||||
| Constant | –5.255*** | –4.328** | –3.386 | –6.744 | –6.665 |
| (1.735) | (1.848) | (4.608) | (5.779) | (5.853) | |
| Observations | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| AIC | 4.97 | 4.922 | 4.942 | 4.955 | 4.975 |
| BIC | 50.109 | 47.958 | 52.5 | 56.407 | 60.97 |
Robust standard errors in parentheses.***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.
Results of negative binomial regression for violent conflict between student following full swing direct local elections (2008, 2011, 2014).
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polarization | 60.03 | 26.92 | 33.18 | 37.31 | 48.55 |
| (25.05) | (14.43) | (16.21) | (14.22) | (15.54) | |
| Inequality | 13.12* | 5.799 | 5.840 | 9.072 | 8.551 |
| (7.483) | (7.044) | (6.853) | (56950) | (5.757) | |
| Poverty | –0.0171 | 0.0215 | .00871 | 0.0396 | –0.0612 |
| (0.0321) | (0.0283) | (0.0304) | (0.0355) | (0.0421) | |
| Log population | 0.711*** | 0.666*** | 0.816*** | 0.836*** | |
| (0.275) | (0.278) | (0.284) | (0.293) | ||
| Democratic institution | –1.703 | –2.209 | –2.551 | ||
| (1.848) | (1.781) | (1.779) | |||
| Political rights | –3.531 | 3.622 | |||
| (1.143) | (1.236) | ||||
| Share of mining | –0.216 | ||||
| (0.152) | |||||
| Constant | –15.255*** | –8.882** | –2.517 | 12.07 | 12.01 |
| (4.379) | (2.873) | (6.879) | (7.934) | (8.140) | |
| Observations | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| AIC | 2.098 | 2.055 | 2.069 | 2.011 | 2.019 |
| BIC | –234.282 | –235.935 | –231.939 | 235.079 | 231.663 |
Robust standard errors in parentheses. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.
Results of negative binomial regression for violent conflict between ethic group full swing direct local elections (2008, 2011, 2014).
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polarization | 26.14 | 26.41 | 22.41 | 19.25 | 33.72* |
| (16.57) | (16.93) | (16.48) | (17.45) | (18.20) | |
| Inequality | 2.630 | 3.006 | 1.832 | 4.602 | 2.957 |
| (8.703) | (8.256) | (7.148) | (9.011) | (7.687) | |
| Poverty | 0.154*** | 0.152*** | 0.169*** | 0.159*** | 0.154*** |
| (0.0330) | (0.0363) | (0.0483) | (0.0590) | (0.0516) | |
| Log population | –0.0649 | –0.120 | –0.0900 | 0.0334 | |
| (0.377) | (0.368) | (0.357) | (0.336) | ||
| Democratic institution | 2.910 | 2.925 | 3.850 | ||
| (2.427) | (2.362) | (2.286) | |||
| Political rights | –1.085 | 0.358 | |||
| (2.321) | (1.832) | ||||
| Share of mining | 0.441 | ||||
| (0.0172) | |||||
| Constant | –9.737*** | 9.802** | –21.34 | –17.37 | 29.92* |
| (4.127) | (4.019) | (12.15) | (17.52) | (15.48) | |
| Observations | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| AIC | 1.326 | 1.346 | 1.356 | 1.374 | 1.365 |
| BIC | 310.709 | 306.133 | 302.54 | 298.172 | 296.453 |
Robust standard errors in parentheses. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.
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Articles in the same Issue
- Editorial
- What Post COVID-19? Avoiding a «Twenty-first Century General Crisis»
- Research Articles
- Defence Spending and Unemployment in the USA: Disaggregated Analysis by Gender and Age Groups
- Improving Analyses of Sanctions Busting
- Natural Disasters and Political Disorder: Why Urban Flooding Turns Violent. Applying a Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis
- Inter-Ethnic Dynamics in the Wake of Terrorist Attacks: Evidence from the 2015 Baga Massacre
- Polarization and Local Conflicts in Post Decentralization Indonesia
Articles in the same Issue
- Editorial
- What Post COVID-19? Avoiding a «Twenty-first Century General Crisis»
- Research Articles
- Defence Spending and Unemployment in the USA: Disaggregated Analysis by Gender and Age Groups
- Improving Analyses of Sanctions Busting
- Natural Disasters and Political Disorder: Why Urban Flooding Turns Violent. Applying a Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis
- Inter-Ethnic Dynamics in the Wake of Terrorist Attacks: Evidence from the 2015 Baga Massacre
- Polarization and Local Conflicts in Post Decentralization Indonesia
