Abstract
This study investigates the impact of urban protests on coup attempts and subsequent regime change in a sample of 39 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period from 1990 to 2007. Widespread public discontent, especially when occurring in urban centers, can act as a trigger of coups d’état in autocratic regimes. Yet, it is less clear how elites respond to protests in terms of post-coup institutional change and democratization. To account for potential endogeneity of protests and coups, variation in rainfall is used as an instrument for urban protests. The results show that rainfall-related urban protests raise the likelihood that a coup is staged, but have no effect on subsequent democratization.
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©2017 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Introduction to the Proceedings of the 17th Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference
- On the Proper Use of Game-Theoretic Models in Conflict Studies
- Ornithology and Varieties of Conflict: A Personal Retrospective on Conflict Forecasting
- Conflict Fragmentation Index
- Income and Armed Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach
- Land-Use Change and Communal Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Bridging Economics and International Relations to Understand State Capacity and War in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Political Regimes and Government’s Reaction to Terrorism. A Simple Model
- A Perfect Match? Are Dogmatic Belief Systems Simply a Reconciliation of Cognitive and Emotional Human Needs?
- Urban Protests, Coups d’état and Post-Coup Regime Change
- Nonviolent Resistance and Peaceful Turnover of Power
- Political Cycles in Military Deployment
- Buying Friends? The Importance of Economic Flows in Assembling the Iraq War Coalition
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Introduction to the Proceedings of the 17th Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference
- On the Proper Use of Game-Theoretic Models in Conflict Studies
- Ornithology and Varieties of Conflict: A Personal Retrospective on Conflict Forecasting
- Conflict Fragmentation Index
- Income and Armed Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach
- Land-Use Change and Communal Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Bridging Economics and International Relations to Understand State Capacity and War in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Political Regimes and Government’s Reaction to Terrorism. A Simple Model
- A Perfect Match? Are Dogmatic Belief Systems Simply a Reconciliation of Cognitive and Emotional Human Needs?
- Urban Protests, Coups d’état and Post-Coup Regime Change
- Nonviolent Resistance and Peaceful Turnover of Power
- Political Cycles in Military Deployment
- Buying Friends? The Importance of Economic Flows in Assembling the Iraq War Coalition