Startseite Urban Protests, Coups d’état and Post-Coup Regime Change
Artikel
Lizenziert
Nicht lizenziert Erfordert eine Authentifizierung

Urban Protests, Coups d’état and Post-Coup Regime Change

  • Lena Gerling EMAIL logo
Veröffentlicht/Copyright: 20. September 2017

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of urban protests on coup attempts and subsequent regime change in a sample of 39 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period from 1990 to 2007. Widespread public discontent, especially when occurring in urban centers, can act as a trigger of coups d’état in autocratic regimes. Yet, it is less clear how elites respond to protests in terms of post-coup institutional change and democratization. To account for potential endogeneity of protests and coups, variation in rainfall is used as an instrument for urban protests. The results show that rainfall-related urban protests raise the likelihood that a coup is staged, but have no effect on subsequent democratization.

JEL Classification: C26; D74; P16

References

Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2006). Economic origins of dictatorship and democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Suche in Google Scholar

Aidt, T. S., & Leon, G. (2016). “The democratic window of opportunity: Evidence from riots in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 60(4), 694–717.10.1177/0022002714564014Suche in Google Scholar

Apolte, T. (2015). Autocracy and the public: Mass revolts, winning coalitions, and policy control in dictatorships. Center for Interdisciplinary Economics Discussion Paper 5/2015, University of Münster.Suche in Google Scholar

Bazzi, S., & Blattman, C. (2014). “Economic shocks and conflict: Evidence from commodity prices.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 6(4), 1–38.10.1257/mac.6.4.1Suche in Google Scholar

Carter, D. B., & Signorino, C. S. (2010). “Back to the future: Modeling time dependence in binary data.” Political Analysis, 18(3), 271–292.10.1093/pan/mpq013Suche in Google Scholar

Casper, B. A., & Tyson, S. A. (2014). “Popular protest and elite coordination in a coup d’état.” The Journal of Politics, 76(02), 548–564.10.1017/S0022381613001485Suche in Google Scholar

Cheibub, J. A., Gandhi, J., & Vreeland, J. R. (2010). “Democracy and dictatorship revisited.” Public Choice, 143(1–2), 67–101.10.1007/s11127-009-9491-2Suche in Google Scholar

Ciccone, A. (2011). “Economic shocks and civil conflict: A comment.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 3(4), 215–227.10.1257/app.3.4.215Suche in Google Scholar

Dell, M., Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A. (2014). “What do we learn from the wheather? The new climate-economy literature.” Journal of Economic Literature, 52(3), 740–798.10.1257/jel.52.3.740Suche in Google Scholar

Derpanopoulos, G., Frantz, E., Geddes, B., & Wright, J. (2016). “Are coups good for democracy?” Research & Politics, 3(1), 2053168016630837.10.1177/2053168016630837Suche in Google Scholar

Dorsch, M. T., & Maarek, P. (2015). Rent seeking, revolutionary threat and coups in non-democracies. THEMA Working Paper 2015-13, Université de Cergy-Pontoise.Suche in Google Scholar

Fuller, T. (2014). “Thailand’s military stages coup, thwarting populist movement.” The New York Times, May 22. URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/23/world/asia/thailand-military-coup.html?_r=0. Accessed August 2017.Suche in Google Scholar

Gassebner, M., Gutmann, J., & Voigt, S. (2016). “When to expect a coup d’État? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants.” Public Choice, 169, 293–313.10.1007/s11127-016-0365-0Suche in Google Scholar

Geddes, B. (1999). “What do we know about democratization after twenty years?” Annual Review of Political Science, 2(1), 115–144.10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.115Suche in Google Scholar

Gilli, M., & Li, Y. (2015). “Coups, revolutions and efficient policies in autocracies.” European Journal of Political Economy, 39, 109–124.10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.04.011Suche in Google Scholar

Hendrix, C. S., & Salehyan, I. (2012). “Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa.” Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 35–50.10.1177/0022343311426165Suche in Google Scholar

Johnson, J., & Thyne, C. L. (2016). “Squeaky wheels and troop loyalty: How domestic prostests influence coups d’états.” Journal of Conflict Resolution. Doi:10.1177/0022002716654742.Suche in Google Scholar

Kim, N. K. (2014). “Revisiting economic shocks and coups.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 60(1), 3–31.10.1177/0022002713520531Suche in Google Scholar

Kirkpatrick, D. D. (2013). “Army ousts Egypt’s president; Morsi is taken into military custody.” The New York Times, July 3. URL: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/04/world/middleeast/egypt.html. Accessed August 2017.Suche in Google Scholar

Miguel, E., & Satyanath, S. (2011). “Re-examining economic shocks and civil conflict.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 3(4), 228–232.10.1257/app.3.4.228Suche in Google Scholar

Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., & Sergenti, E. (2004). “Economic shocks and civil conflict: An instrumental variables approach.” Journal of Political Economy, 112(4), 725–753.10.1086/421174Suche in Google Scholar

Powell, J. (2012). “Determinants of the attempting and outcome of coups d’état.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 56(6), 1017–1040.10.1177/0022002712445732Suche in Google Scholar

Powell, J. M., & Thyne, C. L. (2011). “Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010 a new dataset.” Journal of Peace Research, 48(2), 249–259.10.1177/0022343310397436Suche in Google Scholar

Raleigh, C., Choi, H. J., & Kniveton, D. (2015). “The devil is in the details: An investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa.” Global Environmental Change, 32, 187–199.10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.005Suche in Google Scholar

Salehyan, I., & Hendrix, C. S. (2014). Social conflict in analysis database version 3.1: Codebook and coding procedures.Suche in Google Scholar

Stock, J. H., & Yogo, M. (2002). “Testing for weak instruments in linear regressions.” NBER Technical Working Paper 284.10.3386/t0284Suche in Google Scholar

Thyne, C. L., & Powell, J. M. (2016). “Coup d’état or coup d’autocracy? How coups impact democratization, 1950–2008.” Foreign Policy Analysis, 12(2), 192–213.10.1111/fpa.12046Suche in Google Scholar

World Bank. (2015). World development indicators. Washington, DC: The World Bank Group.Suche in Google Scholar

Published Online: 2017-9-20

©2017 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Heruntergeladen am 18.9.2025 von https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/peps-2017-0033/html
Button zum nach oben scrollen