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Conflict Fragmentation Index

  • Barış Arı EMAIL logo and Theodora-Ismene Gizelis
Published/Copyright: September 29, 2017
Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy
From the journal Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy Volume 23 Issue 4

Abstract

It is widely accepted that fragmentation influences conflict processes in a profound way. Multi-party conflicts with several fronts are notoriously hard to resolve. However, there is no easily computable measure to approximate conflict fragmentation. In this article, we introduce the conflict fragmentation index (CFI), which is computed by adapting the Herfindahl–Hirschman index. The CFI considers the relative prominence of each dyadic-level conflict-fronts nested in the entire civil war. The relative prominence is approximated by using available information on conflict casualties. The CFI is time-variant and highly sensitive to battlefield dynamics. The flexibility of CFI can bring several advantages. Most notably, it is possible to calculate monthly or even daily measures of conflict fragmentation by taking state-based (government vs. NSA) as well as non-state based (NSA vs. NSA) conflicts into account. Overall, the CFI provides a theoretically-informed and easy to compute measure to approximate conflict fragmentation.

Keywords: civil war; fragmentation; splintering; conflict duration

Acknowledgement

This work was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (grant number 1511566).

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Published Online: 2017-9-29

©2017 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

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https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2017-0029
Keywords for this article
civil war; fragmentation; splintering; conflict duration

Articles in the same Issue

  1. Introduction to the Proceedings of the 17th Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference
  2. On the Proper Use of Game-Theoretic Models in Conflict Studies
  3. Ornithology and Varieties of Conflict: A Personal Retrospective on Conflict Forecasting
  4. Conflict Fragmentation Index
  5. Income and Armed Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach
  6. Land-Use Change and Communal Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa
  7. Bridging Economics and International Relations to Understand State Capacity and War in Sub-Saharan Africa
  8. Political Regimes and Government’s Reaction to Terrorism. A Simple Model
  9. A Perfect Match? Are Dogmatic Belief Systems Simply a Reconciliation of Cognitive and Emotional Human Needs?
  10. Urban Protests, Coups d’état and Post-Coup Regime Change
  11. Nonviolent Resistance and Peaceful Turnover of Power
  12. Political Cycles in Military Deployment
  13. Buying Friends? The Importance of Economic Flows in Assembling the Iraq War Coalition
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