Abstract
This note provides a retrospective on lessons learned in research on conflict forecasting, motivated by reflections around the retirement of Professor Michael D. Ward from Duke University. I argue that an excessive focus on “black swans” or surprising events that are hard to forecast detracts from considering the more frequent “white swans” or regularities in conflict. It is often more useful to focus on modal conflicts than exceptions, and substantial progress has been made in recent research. I identify some key lessons learned and highlight the need for researchers to distinguish between features that are more or less difficult to forecast.
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©2017 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Introduction to the Proceedings of the 17th Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference
- On the Proper Use of Game-Theoretic Models in Conflict Studies
- Ornithology and Varieties of Conflict: A Personal Retrospective on Conflict Forecasting
- Conflict Fragmentation Index
- Income and Armed Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach
- Land-Use Change and Communal Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Bridging Economics and International Relations to Understand State Capacity and War in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Political Regimes and Government’s Reaction to Terrorism. A Simple Model
- A Perfect Match? Are Dogmatic Belief Systems Simply a Reconciliation of Cognitive and Emotional Human Needs?
- Urban Protests, Coups d’état and Post-Coup Regime Change
- Nonviolent Resistance and Peaceful Turnover of Power
- Political Cycles in Military Deployment
- Buying Friends? The Importance of Economic Flows in Assembling the Iraq War Coalition
Artikel in diesem Heft
- Introduction to the Proceedings of the 17th Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference
- On the Proper Use of Game-Theoretic Models in Conflict Studies
- Ornithology and Varieties of Conflict: A Personal Retrospective on Conflict Forecasting
- Conflict Fragmentation Index
- Income and Armed Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach
- Land-Use Change and Communal Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Bridging Economics and International Relations to Understand State Capacity and War in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Political Regimes and Government’s Reaction to Terrorism. A Simple Model
- A Perfect Match? Are Dogmatic Belief Systems Simply a Reconciliation of Cognitive and Emotional Human Needs?
- Urban Protests, Coups d’état and Post-Coup Regime Change
- Nonviolent Resistance and Peaceful Turnover of Power
- Political Cycles in Military Deployment
- Buying Friends? The Importance of Economic Flows in Assembling the Iraq War Coalition