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Eine Überprüfung der Informationsquellen für Inflationserwartungen

Sind die Informationsquellen zur Bildung von Inflationserwartungen systematisch verzerrt?
  • Timo Pascal Kaiser EMAIL logo
Veröffentlicht/Copyright: 20. November 2023
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Zusammenfassung

Bisherige Befunde zeigen, dass Inflationserwartungen nicht vollständig der Hypothese Rationaler Erwartungen folgen. Statt kognitiver Begrenzungen sollen hier Mängel bei den Informationsquellen als Ursache beleuchtet werden. Die Ungewissheit über die wahren Zusammenhänge in einer Volkswirtschaft birgt für sich ein Informationsproblem. Informationsquellen können sich widersprechen, was eine Abwägung nötig macht. In einem Review wird der aktuelle Stand über die Anreize von Medien, privatwirtschaftlichen und staatlichen Prognoseinstituten sowie Zentralbanken berichtet, die zur Produktion verzerrter Informationen führen, welche die Inflationserwartung dadurch beeinflussen können. Aufgrund von Selektionseffekten sind die eigenen sowie Wahrnehmungen von Personen aus dem sozialen Umfeld keine zuverlässigen Quellen. Das Problem der verzerrten Informationsquellen für die Inflationserwartungen erweist sich als schwer zu lösen.

Summary

An investigation of the sources of information for inflation expectations. Former findings show that inflation expectations don’t follow the Rational Expectation Hypothesis. Instead of cognitive limitations lacks by the sources of information are considered as reason in this paper. The uncertainty about true interrelations in an economy is an information problem for itself. Sources of information can contradict each other, so weighting is necessary. In a review the current state of research about incentives for medias, for private and for public forecasters, and for central banks which leads to the production of inflation expectation biasing information is presented. Due to selection effects the own impressions and people of the social environment aren’t reliable sources as well. Solving the problem of biased sources of information for inflation expectations is difficult.


Anmerkung

Hiermit erkläre ich, dass ich bei der Erstellung des Beitrages den vom Verein für Socialpolitik in seinem Ethikkodex erarbeiteten Regeln guter wissenschaftlicher Praxis gefolgt bin. Ich habe keine Mittel Dritter erhalten. Es liegen keine Interessenskonflikte vor.


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Online erschienen: 2023-11-20
Erschienen im Druck: 2023-11-01

© 2023 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Artikel in diesem Heft

  1. Frontmatter
  2. Frontmatter
  3. Verzeichnis der Autoren / List of Contributors
  4. Vorwort
  5. Teil I: Grundfragen der Ordnungstheorie und Ordnungspolitik
  6. Künstliche Intelligenz als Ersatz für Märkte und Wettbewerb?
  7. Framing the Market: The Unexpected Commonalities between Karl Polanyi and the Ordoliberals
  8. Den Fronsperger finde ich geistesgeschichtlich aufregend interessant
  9. Institutioneller Wandel im Werk von Götz Briefs
  10. Gustav Schmoller and the Idea of a Social Market Economy: A Precursor to Ordoliberalism?
  11. Teil II: Ordnungsökonomische Perspektiven auf Unternehmen
  12. Entwicklungen der Vorstandsabfindungen von 2010 bis 2019
  13. “Corporate Social Responsibility” avant la lettre? Welche Narrative unternehmerischer Verantwortung hat die deutschsprachige Volkswirtschaftslehre im 20. Jahrhundert vermittelt?
  14. Private Militärunternehmer aus institutionenökonomischer Sicht
  15. Teil III: Ordnungspolitische Anwendungen
  16. Regulating Big Tech: From Competition Policy to Sector Regulation?
  17. Ordnungspolitische Handlungsspielräume des Anwohnerparkens in deutschen Städten – ökonomische und kalkulatorische Grundlagen zur kostenwahren Bepreisung
  18. The Rule of Law at Risk: The Dark Side of the Digital Markets Act
  19. Impfstoffmärkte, COVID-19 und gesundheitspolitische Maßnahmen in Deutschland: Ordnungsökonomische Anmerkungen
  20. Eine Überprüfung der Informationsquellen für Inflationserwartungen
  21. Geld- und Finanzpolitik in der Corona-Zeit aus sozialethischer Perspektive
  22. Niedrigzinspolitik und Sparkultur in Japan: Implikationen für die Wirtschaftspolitik
  23. Teil IV: Politische Ökonomik
  24. Bürokratieabbau durch Sunset-Legislation
  25. Ist die Forderung nach direkter Demokratie populistisch?
  26. Umsetzung der Schuldenbremse in Eigenverantwortung der Länder
  27. Teil V: Ordnungspolitischer Standpunkt
  28. Kapitalismus – die Wirtschaftsform des Gebens
  29. Teil VI: Buchbesprechungen
  30. A Political Economy of Power. Ordoliberalism in Context, 1932–1950
  31. Individual Hope and Cultural Despair among the early Ordoliberals
  32. Liberalism in Dark Times
  33. Soziale Marktwirtschaft kann Krise!
  34. Die Realität des Risikos: Über den vernünftigen Umgang mit Gefahren
  35. Österreichische Wissenschaftstheorie
  36. Grundzüge der Wirtschafts- und Unternehmensethik
  37. Klima muss sich lohnen: Ökonomische Vernunft für ein gutes Gewissen
  38. Wirtschaftskrieg. Rivalität ökonomisch zu Ende denken
  39. F. A. Hayek and the Epistemology of Politics
  40. Die politische Theorie des Neoliberalismus
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