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Beyond the New Deal: The Postmaterialist Divide in Pennsylvania Presidential Elections

  • Si Sheppard

    Si Sheppard graduated from Johns Hopkins University Class of 2008 with a major in American Politics and a minor in International Relations. He has taught at Long Island University, Brooklyn since 2008, with a focus on trends and patterns in American presidential election voting behavior. His next book, The Buying of the Presidency? Franklin D. Roosevelt, the New Deal, and the Election of 1936, the first monograph ever dedicated to a study of the 1936 presidential election, will be released in 2014 by Praeger Publishers as a title in the American Political Culture series.
Veröffentlicht/Copyright: 3. August 2013
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Abstract

The values divide between materialists and postmaterialists, first identified by Ronald Inglehart, continues to define the evolution of partisan loyalties in the United States. Contemporary analysis of voting behavior within the White working-class incorporates the debate between a revisionist school that identifies a contemporary electoral battleground inverted from that of the New Deal era and a traditionalist school that maintains the class alignment established during the New Deal largely remains in effect. The following case study investigating voting behavior in Pennsylvania at the precinct level allows the application of empirical data to identify trends in partisan identity. The study concludes that there is significant evidence that the class loyalties as determinants of partisan attachment established by the New Deal have been superseded by values-driven imperatives. Accordingly, traditionally Democratic, materialist blue-collar constituencies in southwestern Pennsylvania have moved towards the Republican Party, while the opposite has occurred in the traditionally Republican postmaterialist white-collar constituencies of southeastern Pennsylvania. Given the underlying demographics, the Democratic Party has been the net winner from this transfer of allegiances.

Corresponding author: Si Sheppard, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Long Island University, Brooklyn, New York, USA

About the author

Si Sheppard

Si Sheppard graduated from Johns Hopkins University Class of 2008 with a major in American Politics and a minor in International Relations. He has taught at Long Island University, Brooklyn since 2008, with a focus on trends and patterns in American presidential election voting behavior. His next book, The Buying of the Presidency? Franklin D. Roosevelt, the New Deal, and the Election of 1936, the first monograph ever dedicated to a study of the 1936 presidential election, will be released in 2014 by Praeger Publishers as a title in the American Political Culture series.

  1. 1

    Buchanan only won a plurality of the vote; the last Democrat to win a majority was Franklin Pierce in 1852. Roosevelt was the first Democrat to carry both Allegheny and Philadelphia counties in a presidential election since Andrew Jackson in 1832.

  2. 2

    This thesis was later expanded (Ladd, Jr., and Hadley 1978). Inglehart (1977, pp. 183–184) confirmed the same phenomenon, observing postmaterialists “are recruited mainly from the more affluent strata of society. Yet they tend to vote disproportionately for parties of the Left. Conversely, the Materialist type tends to come from lower income backgrounds but is more likely to vote for the more conservative parties.” Inglehart speculated this relationship between values and party preference “could gradually neutralize (or even reverse) the traditional alignment of the working class with the Left, and the middle class with the Right.” Indeed, he hypothesized, “such a process has been taking place during the past two or three decades.”

  3. 3

    According to Manza and Brooks (1999, p. 234), the “growing ability of Republican candidates to induce working-class defections from the Democrats while supporting regressive fiscal policies (e.g., massive tax transfers to affluent citizens) is one of the remarkable features of the recent political past.” As a result, one study (Stanley and Niemi 1995) was prepared to conclude, “It is time to declare the New Deal coalition dead.” See also Fraser and Gerstle (1989); Gillon (1992); Hout, Brooks, and Manza (1995); Lawrence (1996); Radosh (1996); Teixeira and Rogers (2000).

  4. 4

    Frank (2004, p. 119) maintains this is because the Republican Party has successfully asserted “the doctrine of the oppressed majority.” Within this framework it is the Republicans who are the party of “the disrespected, the downtrodden, the forgotten,” of the perennial underdogs, always in rebellion the liberal establishment, “always rising up from below.” For this reason, “Working-class Americans typically vote Republican,” notes Brad Carson (2002), former Democrat Representative from Oklahoma. In fact, “if anyone receives the lion’s share of votes from the millions of Americans for whom the levers of power are far away, it is the Republicans.” The problem for the Democrats is their tendency “to analyze the United States on racial and class lines, rather than on cultural ones… as the only party displaying concern about America’s moral culture, the GOP reaps all the political benefits.” The phenomenon of lower-income voter endorsement of the Republican Party is also discussed in Geraghty (2006); Mann (2006); Bageant (2007); Stricherz (2007); Sosnaud and Frenk (2009).

  5. 5

    According to an election year PublicReligion.org survey, only 38% of White working class voters in the Northeast continue to identify with the Democratic Party; better than the 22% in the South, but below the 41% in the West and the 44% in the Midwest. When White voters were ranked by education, only 36% of high school grads self-identified as Democrats, compared to 52% of post-grads. (PublicReligion.org, available online at: http://www.publicreligion.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/WWC-Report-For-Web-Final.pdf.)

  6. 6

    The President (Clinton 2004, p. 733) himself remarked that in Pennsylvania, “a state with many NRA members and pro-life voters,” he was able to hold his majority from 1992 “thanks to a bigger margin in Philadelphia and a strong vote in Pittsburgh, while my vote went down in the rest of the state because of guns and my veto of the partial-birth abortion bill.”

  7. 7

    Another commentator (de Souza 2008) concludes, “The results make clear that although the US senator from Illinois was able to put together a winning coalition of Black, young White and college-educated voters, he was not able to garner the level of support from older, White, blue-collar Democrats who have been the mainstay of the party in Ohio.”

  8. 8

    In fact, both Obama’s 2008 percentage of the vote and margin of victory in Pennsylvania are the fifth greatest in the history of the Democratic Party, only being surpassed by Johnson in 1964, Roosevelt in 1936, and Jackson in 1832 and 1828.

  9. 9

    The Democratic vote in the borough of Fox Chapel increased from 1,361 in 2004 (38.33%) to 1,590 (45.86%) in 2008 while the Republican vote decreased from 2,172 in 2004 (61.17%) to 1,858 in 2008 (53.59%). In another wealthy suburb of Alleghany County, the municipality of Mt. Lebanon (96.21% White, per-capita personal income $33,652), the Democratic vote increased from 10,727 in 2004 (52.05%) to 11,019 (54.53%) in 2008 while the Republican vote decreased from 9,753 in 2004 (47.32%) to 9,041 in 2008 (44.74%).

  10. 10

    Stonecash (2005, p. 5) accuses Frank of “scaring Democrats, without evidence, into believing that the working class has abandoned them, and that the very essence of the party is less and less relevant to the electorate. The irony is that those bemoaning the lack of discussion of class issues are the very ones telling Democrats class issues have faded in relevance. Accepting this book may be dangerous to the health of Democrats.”

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Published Online: 2013-08-03
Published in Print: 2013-07-01

©2013 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin Boston

Artikel in diesem Heft

  1. Masthead
  2. Masthead
  3. Editorial
  4. Introduction
  5. Articles
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  15. Book Reviews
  16. The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns
  17. Ike’s Bluff: President Eisenhower’s Secret Battle to Save the World
  18. Coolidge
  19. Erratum
  20. Erratum
https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2013-0036

Artikel in diesem Heft

  1. Masthead
  2. Masthead
  3. Editorial
  4. Introduction
  5. Articles
  6. What Americanists Don’t Know About American Politics
  7. Public Opinion Among Political Elites: The “Insiders Poll” as a Research Tool
  8. 527 Committees, Formal Parties, and Party Adaptation
  9. Fundraising Consultants and the Representation of National versus Local Donors in US House Election Campaigns
  10. Beyond the New Deal: The Postmaterialist Divide in Pennsylvania Presidential Elections
  11. Compromising Partisans: Assessing Compromise in Health Care Reform
  12. “Life Ain’t Easy for a President Named Barack”: Party, Ideology, and Tea Party Freshman Support for the Nation’s First Black President
  13. The Younger, More Independent Republican Leaner
  14. Turnout in the 2012 Election: A Review and Call for Long-Term Solutions
  15. Book Reviews
  16. The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns
  17. Ike’s Bluff: President Eisenhower’s Secret Battle to Save the World
  18. Coolidge
  19. Erratum
  20. Erratum
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