Public Opinion Among Political Elites: The “Insiders Poll” as a Research Tool

James A. Barnes; Byron E. Shafer

doi:10.1515/for-2013-0033

Article

Public Opinion Among Political Elites: The “Insiders Poll” as a Research Tool

James A. Barnes
James A. Barnes is a contributing editor at National Journal, as well as founding editor and long-time coordinator of the Insiders Poll. He is also a member of CNN’s decision desk for primary and general election coverage.
and Byron E. Shafer
Byron E. Shafer is Hawkins Chair of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin. He is author (with William Claggett) of The American Public Mind (Cambridge University Press 2010) and (with Richard Spady) of The American Political Landscape (forthcoming Harvard University Press).

Published/Copyright: August 3, 2013

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From the journal The Forum Volume 11 Issue 2

Abstract

The linkages between political elites and their ostensible rank and files are central concerns of democratic theory, and central considerations in the empirical analysis of democratic politics. Yet in a world of burgeoning surveys of public opinion generally, there remains a desperate shortage of ways to tap the opinion of national elites. This piece (re)introduces political scientists and practicing journalists to one device for adding elite opinions to their tool-kits, by way of the Insiders Polls that were created and sustained within National Journal, a magazine of political analysis. Examples are offered of major differences between partisan elites, of concerns where experience trumps partisanship in shaping elite opinion, of the use of these Polls in following both electoral campaigns and conflicts over public policy.

Corresponding author: Byron E. Shafer, University of Wisconsin

About the authors

James A. Barnes

James A. Barnes is a contributing editor at National Journal, as well as founding editor and long-time coordinator of the Insiders Poll. He is also a member of CNN’s decision desk for primary and general election coverage.

Byron E. Shafer

Byron E. Shafer is Hawkins Chair of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin. He is author (with William Claggett) of The American Public Mind (Cambridge University Press 2010) and (with Richard Spady) of The American Political Landscape (forthcoming Harvard University Press).

¹
Though, alarmingly, at risk for 2014 and 2016. But that is grist for a different article.
²
Many of them regularly gathered on pollster.com or on realclearpolitics.com.
³
William J.M. Claggett and Philip H. Pollock, III. 2006. “The Modes of Political Participation Revisited, 1980–2004.” Political Research Quarterly 59: 593–600.
⁴
See National Journal, Vol. 35, No. 43, October 25, 2003, 3252–3258, hereafter cited in the form of NJ 10/25/03, pp. 3232–3258.
⁵
Aggregate totals are supplemented by anonymous quotes from individuals within the main alternative positions.
⁶
No such distinction was present among Republican insiders.
⁷
Respondents in both parties were likewise consensual about the aspect of politics that they personally hated most, namely fund-raising.
⁸
We turn to the institutional politics of major policy initiatives in a focused way below, but note that the commentary of Democratic elites on the fortunes of heathcare reform in 2010 suggested that many did not vote on this particular reform as a contribution to the electoral outcome later that year, as with “The most important thing Democrats can do to help themselves is pass the bill and move on to jobs” or “Anything, anything, to end the health care debacle” (NJ 3/5/2010, p. 5).

Published Online: 2013-08-03

Published in Print: 2013-07-01

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https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2013-0033