Turnout in the 2012 Election: A Review and Call for Long-Term Solutions

Michael J. Hanmer

doi:10.1515/for-2013-0040

Article

Turnout in the 2012 Election: A Review and Call for Long-Term Solutions

Michael J. Hanmer
Michael J. Hanmer is Associate Professor and Graduate Director, Department of Government and Politics, as well as Research Director, Center for American Politics and Citizenship, University of Maryland, College Park.

Published/Copyright: August 3, 2013

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From the journal The Forum Volume 11 Issue 2

Abstract

From 2008 to 2012, national voter turnout fell by over 3 percentage points, to 58.2% of the eligible voting population. This decrease reversed the trend of increasing turnout across the previous three presidential elections. Using aggregate data from official records, this article reviews turnout across time and across the states. Taking advantage of recently released individual-level data, it also explores the level of turnout and change in turnout by race and age. Turnout among Blacks and Whites seems to be going in different directions, with Black turnout exceeding White turnout for perhaps the second election in a row. Youth turnout remains low and decreased substantially from its 2008 level. These findings suggest the need for additional attention from the research community. The article concludes with a call for a shift in focus from the next quick fix to longer-term solutions that will establish and maintain an attachment to voting among the citizenry.

Corresponding author: Michael J. Hanmer, Department of Government and Politics, Center for American Politics and Citizenship, University of Maryland, College Park, USA

About the author

Michael J. Hanmer

Michael J. Hanmer is Associate Professor and Graduate Director, Department of Government and Politics, as well as Research Director, Center for American Politics and Citizenship, University of Maryland, College Park.

¹
For an outstanding visualization of the surge and decline of various Republican Primary candidates see Slate’s “The Presidential Horse Race” at: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2011/10/horse_race_politics_an_animation_of_the_2012_republican_campaign.html. Thank you to Mike Traugott for calling this link to my attention.
²
Turnout data come from Michael P. McDonald, “2012 General Election Turnout Rates.” United States Elections Project. http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html. The numerator for turnout estimates is total ballots cast for president and the denominator is the voting eligible population.
³
Using McDonald’s turnout estimate of total ballots cast (58.7%) does not change the overall conclusion that turnout declined from 2008 to 2012. Though one might prefer to use total ballots cast as the numerator, not all states report this information. (This is highly unfortunate and a consequence of our disjointed system, about which, more later.) The conclusions also remain the same if one uses voting-age population as the denominator.
⁴
This differs slightly from the overall decline in turnout because here states are treated as the unit of analysis, so all states are weighed equally regardless of population. As is common in the American turnout literature, the District of Columbia is treated as a state for analysis purposes.
⁵
Rather than a winner-take-all system, Maine and Nebraska divide their electoral votes by district.
⁶
Very little changes if Pennsylvania, where Mitt Romney spent a considerable amount of money, is included as a battleground state.
⁷
Michael P. McDonald, “Is Minority Voter Registration Really Declining?” posted 5/7/12 at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/is-minority-voter-registr_b_1497813.html.
⁸
I should note that I still believe the CPS is an outstanding source, but the bias in the estimates and the way that his bias varies should not be ignored.
⁹
Here I treat anyone who identifies as Black alone or in combination with other races as Black. The CPS changed the way they ask about race in 2004, allowing respondents to identify in multiple racial categories, and I believe this coding allows for closer comparisons across years.
¹⁰
Michael P. McDonald, “2012 Turnout: Race, Ethnicity and the Youth Vote” posted 5/8/13 at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/2012-turnout-race-ethnict_b_3240179.html.
¹¹
Delving into the various mechanisms responsible for low turnout throughout US history is beyond the scope of this article.
¹²
Both Lijphart (1997) and Wattenberg (2007) note that a compulsory voting system can require showing up rather than actually casting a ballot. Having to show up and wait in line remains inconsistent with the freedom to choose to participate or not.
¹³
Attachment to particular parties, issues, and candidates is an important part of political development and schools will of course need to avoid any bias toward particular candidates and parties.

I wish to thank Hoyoun Koh for help with data collection and Dan Biggers, Michael McDonald, and Candace Turitto for helpful insights. I greatly appreciate the thoughtful comments the Editor and anonymous reviewer provided. All errors are my own.

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Published Online: 2013-08-03

Published in Print: 2013-07-01

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https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2013-0040