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The turning point that was not: The Arab Spring, realism, and the circularity of Western policies toward the Arab world

  • Lars Berger
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Turning Points
Ein Kapitel aus dem Buch Turning Points

Abstract

The Arab Spring marked a critical juncture in Western policies toward the Arab world. For a moment, it appeared as if a turning point was possible away from the long-term Western accommodation of entrenched authoritarianism in the region toward a recalibrated approach that respects the agency and dignity of people in the region. However, realist thinking and its fear-driven association of uncertainty with threat continued to provide a lens through which Western foreign policy elites viewed the wider region. Realist concerns about a new era of unpredictability and associated costs for Western policies as measured in irregular migration and transnational terrorism continued to reify sclerotic Arab state structures as, supposedly, the only guarantor of stability. The juxtaposition of “predictability” and “security” on the one hand with “unpredictability” and “insecurity” on the other not only led to policies that are at odds with US and European normative claims but also threaten Western long-term security interests. In the end, policies inspired by such realist thinking contribute to the circularity of authoritarianism and insecurity by creating self-fulfilling prophecies through the investment in the empty husk of the Arab state whose authoritarian nature is the source of the “unpredictable” security threats Western policymakers are concerned about.

Abstract

The Arab Spring marked a critical juncture in Western policies toward the Arab world. For a moment, it appeared as if a turning point was possible away from the long-term Western accommodation of entrenched authoritarianism in the region toward a recalibrated approach that respects the agency and dignity of people in the region. However, realist thinking and its fear-driven association of uncertainty with threat continued to provide a lens through which Western foreign policy elites viewed the wider region. Realist concerns about a new era of unpredictability and associated costs for Western policies as measured in irregular migration and transnational terrorism continued to reify sclerotic Arab state structures as, supposedly, the only guarantor of stability. The juxtaposition of “predictability” and “security” on the one hand with “unpredictability” and “insecurity” on the other not only led to policies that are at odds with US and European normative claims but also threaten Western long-term security interests. In the end, policies inspired by such realist thinking contribute to the circularity of authoritarianism and insecurity by creating self-fulfilling prophecies through the investment in the empty husk of the Arab state whose authoritarian nature is the source of the “unpredictable” security threats Western policymakers are concerned about.

Kapitel in diesem Buch

  1. Frontmatter I
  2. Preface V
  3. About the Editors VII
  4. Contents IX
  5. Introduction: Turning Points, Typology, and Puzzles 1
  6. I Pushing Back Globalisation? Brexit and Trump
  7. The impact of globalization and Europeanization on the societal foundations of Brexit 17
  8. Brexit: From ever closer union to differentiated integration? 35
  9. The American public and Trump’s trade war with China 53
  10. Digitalization, Trumpismo, and the end of the liberal world order? 75
  11. II Challenging the World Order? China, Russia, and Ukraine
  12. The end of the age of military intervention: Liberal interventionism and global order since the end of the Cold War 99
  13. Crowding out the West? China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian infrastructure investment bank 117
  14. American renewal or decline? The Biden administration, Europe, and the invasion of Ukraine 143
  15. III Calling for Social Change? Norms and Practices
  16. A tipping point in feminist foreign policy in Europe? A constructivist analysis based on the norm life cycle model 169
  17. The turning point that was not: The Arab Spring, realism, and the circularity of Western policies toward the Arab world 189
  18. Emerging and fading practices in the era of the internet: A reflexive approach to analysing intelligence professionals’ changing practices of data collection 209
  19. IV Changing Frozen Policies? Migration, Health, and Lobbying
  20. The 2015 refugee situation as a turning point? Migration- and integration-related debates in the German Bundestag 233
  21. COVID-19 as a potential turning point in German health policy 257
  22. Obstacles on the path to lobbying transparency in Europe: Assessing the German turning point at the end of the Merkel era 279
  23. V Dealing with Crises? Leadership and Market
  24. Re-regulating the European high-tech capitalism? The EU’s digitalization strategy at a turning point after the COVID-19 pandemic 311
  25. The Social Market Economy and institutional development: Change in times of crisis 335
  26. VI Reflecting on Uncertainty? Epistemics and Critique
  27. The emergent discourse on global threats and risks: An analysis of the contemporary empirical evidence extant in scientific journals 351
  28. On the precipice of the unknown: Discussing the paradigm of uncertainty as a political challenge to Western democracies 383
  29. Index 407
https://doi.org/10.1515/9783111272900-010

Kapitel in diesem Buch

  1. Frontmatter I
  2. Preface V
  3. About the Editors VII
  4. Contents IX
  5. Introduction: Turning Points, Typology, and Puzzles 1
  6. I Pushing Back Globalisation? Brexit and Trump
  7. The impact of globalization and Europeanization on the societal foundations of Brexit 17
  8. Brexit: From ever closer union to differentiated integration? 35
  9. The American public and Trump’s trade war with China 53
  10. Digitalization, Trumpismo, and the end of the liberal world order? 75
  11. II Challenging the World Order? China, Russia, and Ukraine
  12. The end of the age of military intervention: Liberal interventionism and global order since the end of the Cold War 99
  13. Crowding out the West? China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian infrastructure investment bank 117
  14. American renewal or decline? The Biden administration, Europe, and the invasion of Ukraine 143
  15. III Calling for Social Change? Norms and Practices
  16. A tipping point in feminist foreign policy in Europe? A constructivist analysis based on the norm life cycle model 169
  17. The turning point that was not: The Arab Spring, realism, and the circularity of Western policies toward the Arab world 189
  18. Emerging and fading practices in the era of the internet: A reflexive approach to analysing intelligence professionals’ changing practices of data collection 209
  19. IV Changing Frozen Policies? Migration, Health, and Lobbying
  20. The 2015 refugee situation as a turning point? Migration- and integration-related debates in the German Bundestag 233
  21. COVID-19 as a potential turning point in German health policy 257
  22. Obstacles on the path to lobbying transparency in Europe: Assessing the German turning point at the end of the Merkel era 279
  23. V Dealing with Crises? Leadership and Market
  24. Re-regulating the European high-tech capitalism? The EU’s digitalization strategy at a turning point after the COVID-19 pandemic 311
  25. The Social Market Economy and institutional development: Change in times of crisis 335
  26. VI Reflecting on Uncertainty? Epistemics and Critique
  27. The emergent discourse on global threats and risks: An analysis of the contemporary empirical evidence extant in scientific journals 351
  28. On the precipice of the unknown: Discussing the paradigm of uncertainty as a political challenge to Western democracies 383
  29. Index 407
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Heruntergeladen am 12.10.2025 von https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/9783111272900-010/html
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