An estimative (warning) model for recognition of pandemic nature of virus infections
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Nikolay A. Kudryashov
,
Mikhail Chmykhov
and
Michael Vigdorowitsch
Abstract
A simple SIS-type mathematical model of infection expansion is presented and analysed with focus on the case SARS-Cov-2. It takes into account two processes, namely, infection and recovery/decease characterised by two parameters in total: contact rate and recovery/decease rate. Its solution has a form of a quasi-logistic function for which we have introduced an infection index that, should it become negative, can also be considered as a recovery/decease index with decrease of infected down to zero. Based on the data from open sources for the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic, seasonal influenza epidemics and a pandemic in the fauna world, a threshold value of the infection index has been shown to exist above which an infection expansion pretends to be considered as pandemic. Lean (two-parameter) SIR models affined with the warning SIS model have been built. Their general solutions have been obtained, analysed and shown to be a priori structurally adjusted to the infectives’ peak in epidemiological data.
Funding source: Russian Science Foundation
Award Identifier / Grant number: 18-11-00209
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Author contribution: NK was involved in conceptualisation, writing a draft, model solving and analysis, funding, general supervision and approval, while MC contributed to data analysis and MV contributed towards conceptualisation, writing a final text, model solving and analysis. All authors took part in problem formulation and discussion of results.
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Research funding: This research was partly (NK, MC) supported by Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 18-11-00209 “Development of methods for investigation of nonlinear mathematical models”.
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Conflict of interest statement: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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- Frontmatter
- Original Research Articles
- Modeling and assessment of the flow and air pollutants dispersion during chemical reactions from power plant activities
- Stochastic dynamics of dielectric elastomer balloon with viscoelasticity under pressure disturbance
- Unsteady MHD natural convection flow of a nanofluid inside an inclined square cavity containing a heated circular obstacle
- Fractional-order generalized Legendre wavelets and their applications to fractional Riccati differential equations
- Battery discharging model on fractal time sets
- Adaptive neural network control of second-order underactuated systems with prescribed performance constraints
- Optimal control for dengue eradication program under the media awareness effect
- Shifted Legendre spectral collocation technique for solving stochastic Volterra–Fredholm integral equations
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Stable soliton solutions to the time fractional evolution equations in mathematical physics via the new generalized
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