Volume 24, Issue 3

This paper shows how to impose parametric restrictions in conjunction with sign restrictions to separate the shocks in SVARs. In sign restrictions, it is common to rotate an initial set of orthogonal shocks by utilising a Givens rotation matrix. In this paper, we show how to construct the Givens rotation matrix when parametric restrictions are part of the identification in sign restricted SVARs. The properties of Givens matrices are such that the parametric restrictions imply a system of equations which can be solved for the unknown parameters (or “angles”) in a rotation matrix, conditional on the values of the parameters which are drawn. The Givens rotation matrix formed in this manner is such that the parametric restrictions on the impulse responses are satisfied on each draw in sign restrictions. The method is demonstrated in an influential SVAR and is shown to generate results similar to those from a recent method which imposes the orthogonality and zero parametric restrictions on the columns of the rotation matrix in sign restrictions.

In this paper, we suggest a unit root test for a system of equations using a spectral variance decomposition method based on the Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform. We obtain the limiting distribution of the test statistic and study its small sample properties using Monte Carlo simulations. We find that, for multiple time series of small lengths, the wavelet-based method is robust to size distortions in the presence of cross-sectional dependence. The wavelet-based test is also more powerful than the Cross-sectionally Augmented Im et al. unit root test (Pesaran, M. H. 2007. “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-section Dependence.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 22 (2): 265–312.) for time series with between 20 and 100 observations, using systems of 5 and 10 equations. We demonstrate the usefulness of the test through an application on evaluating the Purchasing Power Parity theory for the Group of 7 countries and find support for the theory, whereas the test by Pesaran (Pesaran, M. H. 2007. “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-section Dependence.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 22 (2): 265–312.) finds no such support.

This paper investigates how the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank reacted in the aftermath of the financial crisis by making use of both conditional and unconditional interest rate quantiles regressions and data on shadow short rate of interest and a measure of uncertainty. Firstly, the unconditional quantile regression offers some support for increased reaction by the Fed as the ZLB is approached. Secondly, the decreased reaction of the Fed and other monetary policy makers towards uncertainty particularly at lower conditional quantiles of interest rates lends support to expansionary mechanism in place during this time. Hence uncertainty is key to policy reaction, and more so during episodes of crisis.

This paper examines the relationship between income inequality and economic growth in a broad panel of countries over the period from 1965 to 2014. We utilize an improved dataset for inequality with reduced measurement errors, which fosters cross-country comparability. In addition, we investigate whether accounting for heterogeneity across countries alters the estimated effect of inequality on growth, and whether the inequality-growth nexus varies with the level of income inequality. Our estimates show that after accounting for heterogeneity, the nonlinear growth effect of income inequality remains statistically and economically significant. We find a threshold effect of inequality on economic growth, and this threshold is higher for developing economies than for developed economies.

We quantitatively analyse the interest rate-setting behaviour of German commercial banks during the period 2003–2014, using nonlinear (smooth transition) cointegration approaches. Our empirical results reveal principles applied by commercial banks in (re-)gaining margins in the aftermath of the financial crisis. We substantiate our findings using economic arguments from a bank management perspective. As our study contributes to a better understanding of the pass-through mechanism from market to commercial banks’ customer interest rates, the results will also be relevant to meaningful assessments of the effectiveness of monetary policy measures.

This paper sheds light on the role of different sources of uncertainty on agricultural futures markets momentum trading and volatility. Momentum trading is proxied by two technical analysis indicators – the moving average convergence divergence and the relative strength index – while we also consider two different concepts of uncertainty – the CBOE volatility index of the S&P500 and daily news about the stance of economic policy in the US. To capture different effects on the transmission mechanism of uncertainty shocks, we implement a Bayesian VAR approach, which accounts for time-variation in the coefficients and the variance covariance structure of the model’s innovations. The results point in favor of a time-dependent uncertainty effect on expectations of daily momentum traders in agricultural futures markets. The corresponding trades in these periods push futures prices upwards and downwards and result in an increased volatility. Direct effects of both uncertainty sources on the volatility of agricultural futures markets confirm this view.