Volume 222, Issue 3

A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time. (3) The inclusion of the indicator in out-of-sample forecasting procedures should improve the predictive power. Our analysis deals with tests for these requirements applied to German data. We used frequency domain analysis, different Granger-causality tests and out-of sample forecasts. Only few indicators passed all tests. Their inclusion into VAR-based forecasts improves the forecast in the very short run. Further research should concentrate on the unsolved problem of the prediction of business cycle turning points. Zusammenfassung Brauchbare Frühindikatoren sollten folgende Eigenschaften besitzen: (1) Die konjunkturellen Bewegungen des Frühindikators sollten denen der Referenzreihe folgen. (2) Die Beziehung zwischen den Reihen sollte stabil und signifikant sein. (3) Die Einbeziehung des Indikators sollte die Out-of-sample-Prognose verbessern. Unsere Untersuchung testet diese Anforderungen für deutsche Daten. Dazu werden Methoden der Spektralanalyse, verschiedene Granger-Tests und Out-of-sample-Prognosen verwendet. Nur wenige Indikatoren bestehen die Tests auf die geforderten Eigenschaften. Ihre Einbeziehung in VAR-basierte Prognosen verbessert die Prognoseleistung in der sehr kurzen Frist. Weitere Forschung sollte sich auf das ungelöste Problem der Wendepunktprognose des Konjunkturzyklus beziehen.

We compare the forecasting ability of the ifo-business expectations and ZEW-business expectations for the German industrial production in detail. Both are qualitative monthly surveys. While the ifo indicator is based on surveys of enterprises, the ZEW polls financial analysts from banks, insurances and large industrial companies. Using Granger causality tests we find a significant one-month lead of the ZEW-expectations over the ifo-expectations. Furthermore we find that the use of ZEW-expectations allows for longer term forecasts of German industrial production. For a forecast period of three to twelve months the ZEW-expectations significantly outperform a naive forecast (which is simply based upon its own lagged values) of German industrial production as well as the forecasts based on the ifo-expectations. The ifo-expectations provide slightly better forecasts for short term periods (one month). We suggest that this difference in forecast ability is due to the different participants of the surveys: the financial analysts from the ZEW survey might incorporate more macroeconomic factors when building their expectations, thereby allowing longer term forecasts than the enterprises that take part in the ifo survey. However, the latter are supposed to forecast the immediate future better than the analysts as they have a better knowledge of the present situation of their business. Finally, using encompassing tests we show that a combination of both indicators results in better medium-term forecasts (three to six months) of the German industrial production than using both indicators alone.

In most of the occidental countries the national statistical agencies have growing difficulties to justify and raise the budget necessary for a complete enumeration of the population. Destatis Germany which did not conduct a traditional census since 1987 tries to test a register-based procedure. It is complementarily proposed to consider the experiences made by the Netherlands, Switzerland and France by planning a modern Census of Population.

Since two decades processes of search for new social and economic orders can be observed throughout the world, including the USA and the member-countries of the European Community. The author examines for the USA as well as for the Federal Republic of Germany the causes underlying this search and the essentials of the reform-proposals. He discusses the following questions: Should the economic and social culture of the USA be a prototype for reforms in the countries of the European Community? Could the so called “neue Bürgerkultur” (new culture of civil society) be an essential element of reforms in the welfare states? Which idea of human being and which ideological orientation should be measures for new orders? The author is convinced that the USA cannot play the role of a prototype. Though it seems useful to pursue the restoration of social capital and the ideas of communitarism as the USA do, it seems necessary not to forget the high value of European welfare state traditions for society and economy. It seems reasonable to strive for preserving the essentials of a welfare state on the level of the European Community as expressed in the “Community Charter of Fundamental Social Rights of 1989”.

In pursuing their plans economic agents regularly have to adjust their pacing of orders, production, and deliveries in unanticipated ways. Information constraints turn many of these adjustments into myopic reactions to accelerations/decelerations observed in the activity level of suppliers and/or customers. For analyzing the resulting dynamics, this note suggests a macroeconomic model derived from the idea of representing the adaptive interdependencies in terms of a system of integrated service channels. It sheds new light on what happens in stages of strained/exhausted production capacity and implies the possibility of cycles in aggregate output due to imperfectly synchronized production processes. Zusammenfassung Im Ablauf des Wirtschaftsprozesses sind die Produzenten häufig gezwungen, sich zeitlich in nicht vorhergesehener Weise mit ihren Aufträgen, der Produktionsabwicklung und den Lieferungen sowohl an ihre Lieferanten wie ihre Abnehmer anzupassen. Die Informationen, die zu solchen Anpassungen führen, sind normalerweise nicht über den Preismechanismus vermittelt, sondern resultieren aus den individuellen Marktkontakten zwischen Anbietern und Nachfragern. Daraus resultiert nicht nur eine gewisse Kurzsichtigkeit in den korrespondierenden, kurzfristigen Anpassungen im Aktivitätsniveau der Produzenten, sondern auch eine ,lokal' korrelierte Reaktionsdynamik. Dies bedeutet, die eigenen zeitlichen Änderungen folgen jenen bei den eigenen Lieferanten und Abnehmern. Um diese Zusammenhänge zu modellieren, wird die Wirtschaft als ein System vernetzter Bedienungskanäle interpretiert und danach gefragt, durch welche makroökonomischen Variablen das zeitliche Verhalten eines solchen Systems beschrieben werden kann. Insbesondere wird auf dieser Grundlage untersucht, wie sich die makroökonomischen Variablen verhalten, wenn es zu einer starken Auslastung des Bedienungssystems kommt, ein Aspekt, der in der makroökonomischen Theorie der Voll- und Unterbeschäftigungsgleichgewichte wenig Beachtung findet. Wie sich zeigen lässt, kann es unter solchen Bedingungen zu zyklischen Schwankungen in der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionsmenge kommen. Der Dynamik der korrelierten, durch den Preismechanismus nicht vollständig synchronisierten, kurzfristigen individuellen Anpassungen sollte daher bei der Erklärung konjunktureller Schwankungen mehr Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt werden.