Band 21, Heft 1

Republicans were initially optimistic that the 2022 midterms would result in a sizeable red wave that would lead them to win back control of the House and Senate in light of President Biden’s low levels of approval and high rates of inflation. Although they did win enough seats to narrowly control the House, they failed to pick up a sufficient number of seats in the Senate to control that chamber during the next 2 years. This article examines the candidates, outcomes, and implications of the 2022 midterm elections. In doing so, we analyze the effect that former President Donald Trump had on the election while also considering the impact of factors such as inflation and abortion on congressional election outcomes. The article closes with a discussion of the effects of the 2022 midterms on both the incoming 118th Congress as well as the upcoming 2024 Presidential election.

This analysis focuses on broadcast advertising spending in congressional races in 2022. We discuss four patterns that characterized ads in these races. First, there was a record volume of television advertising for a midterm election. Despite frequent claims that traditional ads would begin to decline, the air war featured more spots than in 2014 and 2018. Second, Democrats continued to dominate ad totals, a trend that persisted from congressional elections in 2020 and 2018. Third, the agenda shifted to a discussion of abortion and inflation, two issues that were barely mentioned in political ads in prior cycles. Finally, outside groups remained a dominant force in many campaigns, but while their investments in prior cycles tended to be focused on Senate races, groups were also heavily involved in House races in 2022. Outside groups sponsored about 35% of all ads in House races, and they sponsored about 40% of ads in Senate races, both record highs. All told, television remains central to American elections. With each passing election, some aspects of the air war change, but the ubiquitous 30 s spot continues to be a go-to method of appealing to voters.

This analysis focuses on candidate-sponsored digital advertising spending in federal races in the 2022 midterm elections. We focus the analysis on spending on Meta (which includes Facebook and Instagram) and Google (which includes YouTube and search-related ads). We identify just under $150 million in candidate spending in federal races on these two platforms. We find, perhaps surprisingly, that combined spending on Meta and Google was lower in federal races compared to 2020 as a share of media spending. We also focus our analysis on measuring the tone of digital ads on Meta and identifying the goals pursued by candidates in these digital ad buys. Our results confirm prior work that digital advertising remains more positive than television (and less issue-focused than television ads), and we find that nearly half of the candidate-sponsored spending on Meta in the 2022 general election period made appeals for donations, with significant variation across campaigns. The Meta and Google ad libraries are invaluable sources of data for measuring the digital strategies of campaigns, but the declines from 2020, particularly on Meta, suggest candidates are likely pursuing diverse digital investments across platforms, some with no transparency or capacity to track spending and content.

Recent election cycles have seen Democrats perform increasingly well in America’s suburbs. This shift is significant given that a plurality of Americans live in suburban areas and the vast majority of competitive House districts are located in these areas. In this paper, we use the Cooperative Election Study to document the shift among suburban voters and explore the reasons for this shift. Specifically, we consider whether the suburban Democratic shift is due to (1) changes in the demographic composition of suburban communities or (2) changes in how particular subsets of voters in suburban communities are voting. We find that most of the suburban Democratic shift is attributable to the changing voting patterns of white college-educated suburban voters. We conclude by presenting evidence that this shift to the left among suburban college-educated white voters appears to largely be a reaction to Donald Trump’s influence on the Republican Party’s brand.

Ninety-six percent of state legislative incumbents who appeared on the November 2022 ballot reclaimed their seats in the state legislature, the highest percentage since at least the 2010 elections. Such electoral success would suggest that these state legislators enjoyed a healthy incumbency advantage. However, prior work (e.g. Jacobson, G. C. 2015. “It’s Nothing Personal: The Decline of the Incumbency Advantage in US House Elections.” The Journal of Politics 77 (3): 861–73.) indicates that the incumbency advantage has diminished in recent elections, at least in the US House. I find similar – but smaller – declines in the magnitude of the incumbency advantage in state house elections in the last two decades. Instead of being attributable to the traditional incumbency advantage, state legislative incumbents’ success in the 2022 elections is more likely a consequence of the increasing number of partisan state house districts and the continued nationalization of state politics.

The 2022 elections further depleted the ranks of elected officials associated with “Never Trump,” the informal network of Republicans and conservatives opposed to Donald Trump and his movement. Never Trumpers retain a prominent presence in traditional media and some elite-level conservative institutions. And they can point to a notable minority among the voting public that shares its general outlook. However, the highly publicized defeats and hasty retirements of many of those who supported Trump’s impeachment have left the Never Trumpers with very few standard bearers among active Republican politicians. Many of those most closely associated with the network are happy to have left behind a party they now see as irredeemable. Yet one tension confronting the Never Trumpers is that, as they themselves often caution, a healthy two-party system requires that both parties abide by certain basic rules and norms. But if that is the case, and if the Never Trumpers are not going to lead the fight to restore a more responsible Republican party, who will?

Concerns about polarization and the difficulty moderate candidates have in winning primary elections have driven several electoral reform efforts in recent decades. In this article, we leverage reforms prior to the 2022 elections in Alaska to assess whether the top-four primary is likely to help moderate candidates succeed. We evaluate three mechanisms by which the top-four might help moderates: by allowing them to advance from the primary and compete for votes from the more moderate general electorate, by changing the composition of the primary electorate and/or by facilitating crossover voting during the primary. Our analysis suggests that the top-four primary creates opportunities for cross-party voting that can enhance the electoral prospects of moderate candidates.