Policy Press
Chapter 9 Public Expenditure and Population Ageing: why families of nations are different
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Francis G. Castles
Abstract
There is a new spectre haunting Europe, the OECD and, if the World Bank is to be believed, the world as a whole - the spectre of an ageing population! For national economic policy-makers and their international agencies, population ageing has many of the characteristics of a moral panic. The World Bank (1994) talks of ‘the old age crisis’ and the OECD Secretariat (1996) of ‘a critical policy challenge’. Some refer to the aged as a ‘selfish generation’ (Thomson 1991) and invoke the notion of increasing conflict between younger and older generations over welfare resources. Others note that whatever problems loom in the short to medium-term can only get worse as the fertility rates of many Western nations go into free-fall. National treasuries, irrespective of country-specific demographics, use the supposedly ineluctable consequences of a ‘greying’ population as a mantra to be invoked against all proposals for enhanced public spending. New commitments are out of the question, when existing commitments to the old (and those who will become old) promise national ruin in a matter of decades. While some scholars and a few agencies of government provide a more measured analysis of national trends, their voices are, almost invariably, drowned by the clamour of those who argue that population ageing means that the modem welfare state can no longer pay its way.
Many of these views have some surface plausibility. The world’s population is ageing and that of the OECD countries in particular. It is estimated that between 2000 and 2030 AD, the OECD’s elderly population (aged 65 and over) will increase by 61.
Abstract
There is a new spectre haunting Europe, the OECD and, if the World Bank is to be believed, the world as a whole - the spectre of an ageing population! For national economic policy-makers and their international agencies, population ageing has many of the characteristics of a moral panic. The World Bank (1994) talks of ‘the old age crisis’ and the OECD Secretariat (1996) of ‘a critical policy challenge’. Some refer to the aged as a ‘selfish generation’ (Thomson 1991) and invoke the notion of increasing conflict between younger and older generations over welfare resources. Others note that whatever problems loom in the short to medium-term can only get worse as the fertility rates of many Western nations go into free-fall. National treasuries, irrespective of country-specific demographics, use the supposedly ineluctable consequences of a ‘greying’ population as a mantra to be invoked against all proposals for enhanced public spending. New commitments are out of the question, when existing commitments to the old (and those who will become old) promise national ruin in a matter of decades. While some scholars and a few agencies of government provide a more measured analysis of national trends, their voices are, almost invariably, drowned by the clamour of those who argue that population ageing means that the modem welfare state can no longer pay its way.
Many of these views have some surface plausibility. The world’s population is ageing and that of the OECD countries in particular. It is estimated that between 2000 and 2030 AD, the OECD’s elderly population (aged 65 and over) will increase by 61.
Chapters in this book
- Front Matter i
- Contents vii
- List of Figures ix
- List of Tables x
- Notes on the Contributors xi
- Social Security in the New Millennium 1
-
Debates
- Rising Tides and Rusty Boats: Economic position of the poor in 1985-1995 15
- Popular Support for Social Security. A sociological perspective’ 33
- Non-Discriminating Social Policy? Policy scenarios for meeting needs without categorisation 53
- Equality, Employment, and State Social Policies: a gendered perspective 69
- Europeanisation and Decentralisation of Welfare ‘Safety Nets’ 88
-
Reforms
-
Reforms in Theoretical Perspective
- Beyond Retrenchment: four problems in current welfare state research and one suggestion how to overcome them 105
- Change without Challenge? Welfare states, social construction of challenge and dynamics of path dependency 121
-
Reforming Pension Systems
- Public Expenditure and Population Ageing: why families of nations are different 141
- Ageing and Public Pension Reforms in Western Europe and North America: patterns and politics 157
- The Redistributional Impact of a World Bank ‘Pension Regime’ 179
-
Activation Reforms
- Activating Welfare States. How social policies can promote employment 197
- Welfare to Work and the Organisation of Opportunity: European and American approaches from a British perspective 211
- Activating the Unemployed: the street-level implementation of UK policy 235
- Bibliography 251
Chapters in this book
- Front Matter i
- Contents vii
- List of Figures ix
- List of Tables x
- Notes on the Contributors xi
- Social Security in the New Millennium 1
-
Debates
- Rising Tides and Rusty Boats: Economic position of the poor in 1985-1995 15
- Popular Support for Social Security. A sociological perspective’ 33
- Non-Discriminating Social Policy? Policy scenarios for meeting needs without categorisation 53
- Equality, Employment, and State Social Policies: a gendered perspective 69
- Europeanisation and Decentralisation of Welfare ‘Safety Nets’ 88
-
Reforms
-
Reforms in Theoretical Perspective
- Beyond Retrenchment: four problems in current welfare state research and one suggestion how to overcome them 105
- Change without Challenge? Welfare states, social construction of challenge and dynamics of path dependency 121
-
Reforming Pension Systems
- Public Expenditure and Population Ageing: why families of nations are different 141
- Ageing and Public Pension Reforms in Western Europe and North America: patterns and politics 157
- The Redistributional Impact of a World Bank ‘Pension Regime’ 179
-
Activation Reforms
- Activating Welfare States. How social policies can promote employment 197
- Welfare to Work and the Organisation of Opportunity: European and American approaches from a British perspective 211
- Activating the Unemployed: the street-level implementation of UK policy 235
- Bibliography 251
