Prediction of the time-dependent failure rate for normally operating components taking into account the operational history
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I. Vrbanić
Abstract
The prediction of the time-dependent failure rate has been studied, taking into account the operational history of a component used in applications such as system modeling in a probabilistic safety analysis in order to evaluate the impact of equipment aging and maintenance strategies on the risk measures considered. We have selected a time-dependent model for the failure rate which is based on the Weibull distribution and the principles of proportional age reduction by equipment overhauls. Estimation of the parameters that determine the failure rate is considered, including the definition of the operational history model and likelihood function for the Bayesian analysis of parameters for normally operating repairable components. The operational history is provided as a time axis with defined times of overhauls and failures. An example for demonstration is described with prediction of the future behavior for seven different operational histories.
Kurzfassung
Die Vorhersage Zeit-abhängiger Ausfallquoten wurde untersucht unter Berücksichtigung der betriebsbedingten Vorgeschichte einer Komponente, wie sie auch verwendet wird bei der Systemmodellierung in der probabilistischen Sicherheitsanalyse, um den Einfluss von Alterung und Wartungsstrategien auf die Risikomaßnahmen zu bewerten. Es wurde ein Zeit-abhängiges Modell für die Ausfallquote gewählt auf der Grundlage der Weibull Verteilung und dem Prinzip der proportionalen Altersreduktion durch Instandsetzungsmaßnahmen. Eine Abschätzung der Parameter, die die Ausfallquote bestimmen, wurde durchgeführt, einschließlich der Festlegung des Modells für die betriebsbedingte Vorgeschichte und die Likelyhood-Funktion für die Bayes-Analyse der Parameter für bestimmungsgemäß betriebene, reparierbare Komponenten. Die betriebsbedingte Vorgeschichte wird als Zeitachse angegeben mit festgelegten Zeiten für Reparaturmaßnahmen und Ausfälle. Ein Demonstrationsbeispiel wird beschrieben, mit Vorhersage des zukünftigen Verhaltens bei sieben verschiedenen betriebsbedingten Vorgeschichten.
References
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© 2008, Carl Hanser Verlag, München
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Articles in the same Issue
- Contents/Inhalt
- Contents
- Summaries/Kurzfassungen
- Summaries
- Technical Contributions/Fachbeiträge
- Application of the HN method to radiative heat transfer for a non-conservative slab
- Application of the spectral Green's function method for numerically solving discrete ordinates problems in cylindrical geometry
- Chebyshev polynomial (TN) approximation to neutron transport theory and application to the critical slab problem
- Spherical albedo problem for isotropic scattering
- The slab albedo and criticality problem for the quadratic scattering kernel with the HN method
- An analytical solution for the time-dependent SN transport equation in a slab
- Deterministic calculation of grey Dancoff factors in cluster cells with cylindrical outer boundaries
- New calculations of excitation functions of some positron emitting and single photon emitting radioisotopes
- Prediction of the time-dependent failure rate for normally operating components taking into account the operational history
- Assessment of FEMAXI and TESPA-ROD codes for modelling of BDBA in RBMK-1500
- A study on the neutronic performance of the ARIES-RS fusion reactor with various coolants bearing nuclear fuel
