Reconsideration of the Best Batting Order in Baseball: Is the Order to Maximize the Expected Number of Runs Really the Best?
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Nobuyoshi Hirotsu
In previous studies for analyzing the batting order of baseball games, the order is evaluated by its expected number of runs scored in a game, under the Markov chain model on the D’Esopo and Lefkowitz runner advancement model. However, the order to maximize the expected number of runs may not be the best order in the sense that it may not get more than 0.5 in probability of winning the game against other possible batting orders. In this sense, the best batting order is reconsidered, and it is tried to find better orders than the order which maximizes the expected number of runs. In this paper, the existence of such orders and the difference between the best orders and the order to maximize the expected number of runs are concretely shown by taking into account of not only the expected number of runs but also the standard deviation of runs, based on the data of Major League teams.
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
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Articles in the same Issue
- Conference Paper
- Uncovering Europe's Best Goalscorers from the 2009-2010 Season
- Dynamic Effort, Sustainability, Myopia, and 110% Effort
- The Intra-Match Home Advantage in Australian Rules Football
- The Relationship between Leader Experience and Team Performance in Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Designs
- Stratified Odds Ratios for Evaluating NBA Players Based on their Plus/Minus Statistics
- Dependence Relationships between On Field Performance, Wins, and Payroll in Major League Baseball
- Optimal Dynamic Clustering Through Relegation and Promotion: How to Design a Competitive Sports League
- Perception ? Reality: Analyzing Specific Allegations of NBA Referee Bias
- NFL Prediction using Committees of Artificial Neural Networks
- An Alternative to the NFL Draft Pick Value Chart Based upon Player Performance
- Monte Carlo Simulation for High School Football Playoff Seed Projection
- Defining the Performance Coefficient in Golf: A Case Study at the 2009 Masters
- Reconsideration of the Best Batting Order in Baseball: Is the Order to Maximize the Expected Number of Runs Really the Best?
- Never Too Late to Win
- An Extension of the Pythagorean Expectation for Association Football
- Pitcher Accuracy Through Catcher Spotting: Assessing Rater Reliability
- Valuing Nostalgia: The Case of the Topps 1957 Baseball Cards
