The Intra-Match Home Advantage in Australian Rules Football
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Richard Ryall
The existence of home advantage in Australian Rules football (AFL) has been well documented in previous literature. This advantage typically refers to the net advantage of several factors which, generally speaking, have a positive effect on the home team and a negative effect on the away team. However, this practice excludes the in-course dynamics of home advantage throughout the match including the interrelationship between pre-game and in-game team characteristics. The aim of the present study is to calculate the intra-match home advantage for each quarter in AFL by incorporating the interaction between team quality and current score. Archival AFL data was obtained from seasons 2000 to 2009 which consisted of year, round, quarter, (nominal) home team, away team, home team score and away team score. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) on margin of victory was used to determine if there was a distinct difference between team quality (favourite/underdog) within current score (ahead/behind). Since the in-game team characteristics (current score) are likely to be caused by pre-game characteristics (team quality) the margin of victory is adjusted for team quality. The results provide marginal evidence that home underdogs in the third quarter irrespective of whether they were ahead or behind at half time receive a greater advantage than home favourites. Furthermore, home advantage is greatest in the final quarter when there is a high level of uncertainty about the outcome of the match.
©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston
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Articles in the same Issue
- Conference Paper
- Uncovering Europe's Best Goalscorers from the 2009-2010 Season
- Dynamic Effort, Sustainability, Myopia, and 110% Effort
- The Intra-Match Home Advantage in Australian Rules Football
- The Relationship between Leader Experience and Team Performance in Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Designs
- Stratified Odds Ratios for Evaluating NBA Players Based on their Plus/Minus Statistics
- Dependence Relationships between On Field Performance, Wins, and Payroll in Major League Baseball
- Optimal Dynamic Clustering Through Relegation and Promotion: How to Design a Competitive Sports League
- Perception ? Reality: Analyzing Specific Allegations of NBA Referee Bias
- NFL Prediction using Committees of Artificial Neural Networks
- An Alternative to the NFL Draft Pick Value Chart Based upon Player Performance
- Monte Carlo Simulation for High School Football Playoff Seed Projection
- Defining the Performance Coefficient in Golf: A Case Study at the 2009 Masters
- Reconsideration of the Best Batting Order in Baseball: Is the Order to Maximize the Expected Number of Runs Really the Best?
- Never Too Late to Win
- An Extension of the Pythagorean Expectation for Association Football
- Pitcher Accuracy Through Catcher Spotting: Assessing Rater Reliability
- Valuing Nostalgia: The Case of the Topps 1957 Baseball Cards
