Startseite Hopf bifurcation and the existence and stability of closed orbits in three-sector models of optimal endogenous growth
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Hopf bifurcation and the existence and stability of closed orbits in three-sector models of optimal endogenous growth

  • Kazuo Nishimura und Tadashi Shigoka EMAIL logo
Veröffentlicht/Copyright: 9. April 2019
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Abstract

The present paper constructs a family of three-sector models of optimal endogenous growth, and conducts exact bifurcation analysis. In so doing, original six-dimensional equilibrium dynamics is decomposed into five-dimensional stationary autonomous dynamics and one-dimensional endogenously growing component. It is shown that the stationary dynamics thus decomposed undergoes supercritical Hopf bifurcation. It is inferred from the convex structure of our model that the dimension of a stable manifold of each closed orbit thus bifurcated in this five-dimensional dynamics should be two.

1 Introduction

The present paper constructs a continuous-time model of optimal endogenous growth in which an optimal path fluctuates around a balanced growth path (i.e. BGP). The model extends the two-sector models of Uzawa (1965) and Caballé and Santos (1993), in which an optimal path do not fluctuate around the BGP. The main result is to show that this would no longer be the case if the third stock variable is included in the model. By using a bifurcation theorem, the paper demonstrates that, with three stock variables, economic fluctuations may occur along an optimal path around the BGP.

Uzawa (1965) introduces a continuous time and two-sector model of optimal endogenous growth with physical and human capitals and with a linear felicity function. Owing to the linearity of felicity function, transitional dynamics in his model exhibits corner solutions. Caballé and Santos (1993) construct a large class of continuous time and two-sector models of optimal endogenous growth with physical and human capitals and with a strictly concave felicity function. They use convex technology that is more general than that used by Uzawa (1965). Owing to the strict concavity of felicity function, transitional dynamics in their model exhibits robust interior solutions. They first consider the class of technologies such that an educational sector uses human capital alone as an input of capital stock, and they show that within this class, if an optimal BGP exists, it is unique and globally asymptotically stable. They also consider the class of technologies such that an educational sector uses both physical and human capitals as an input of capital stock, and they treat some problems on interior transitional dynamics. From a purely logical point of view, one could not exclude the possibility that BGP might lose either uniqueness or stability as technology would vary within this class. However, even if the BGP might lose stability within the class, there would be no interior endogenous fluctuations around the BGP, as discussed in the next paragraph.

Consider a continuous time and multi-sector model of optimal endogenous growth that includes two heterogenous capitals with a strictly concave felicity function and with convex technology. And suppose that structures of preference and of technology in this hypothetical model permit a BGP to exist. The convex structure of this model implies that if an interior optimal solution would exist, it should be unique. And equilibrium dynamics of an interior optimal path in the model could be described by four-dimensional autonomous differential equation that is composed of two heterogenous capitals and of two imputed prices of these two capitals. Thus the original four-dimensional dynamics includes two predetermined and two non-predetermined variables. And by means of some log-linear variable transformations, this four-dimensional autonomous dynamics should be able to be decomposed into three-dimensional stationary autonomous dynamics and one-dimensional endogenously growing component in such a way that the resulting three-dimensional stationary dynamics includes one predetermined and two non-predetermined variables and that a steady state of this stationary dynamics corresponds to the BGP of the original four-dimensional dynamics. Suppose that a steady state of the stationary dynamics is hyperbolic. Since an interior equilibrium is at most unique, and since the stationary dynamics includes only one predetermined variable, the hyperbolic steady state should have at least two unstable roots, and only one characteristic root of it could change the sign of its real part.[1] If interior equilibrium should be at most one, (in other words, if equilibrium is determinate,) and if one would work within a continuous time model, one should have at least two predetermined variables in stationary dynamics in order to obtain endogenous fluctuations such as due to a stable closed orbit. As long as one works within the framework of our hypothetical continuous time and multisector model of optimal endogenous growth with two heterogenous capitals, one could not obtain endogenous fluctuations around the BGP.

This thought experiment suggests two methods of obtaining endogenous fluctuations around a BGP in continuous time and multisector models of endogenous growth with heterogenous capitals. As one method, one might increase the number of heterogenous capitals in order to make the resulting stationary dynamics include more than two predetermined variables, while keeping the number of interior equilibrium at most one. As an alternative method, one might introduce external effects into the above hypothetical model in order to make equilibrium indeterminate, while keeping the number of capital two. The present study pursues the first approach, because this approach has not yet been pursued in the literature,[2] and because in sharp contrast, the second approach has already been pursued extensively in the literature.[3]

We construct a family of multisector models of optimal endogenous growth with three heterogenous capitals and with a strictly concave felicity function, and conduct exact bifurcation analysis. In so doing, original six-dimensional equilibrium dynamics is decomposed into five-dimensional stationary autonomous dynamics and one-dimensional endogenously growing component. Fundamental characteristics compatible with the existence of a BGP, combined with the choice of a Cobb-Douglas technology, introduce strong log-linear structure into our model, which in turn enables us to elicit two-dimensional autonomous stationary dynamics from the five-dimensional stationary dynamics under appropriate variable transformations. The present study shows that the two-dimensional stationary dynamics thus elicited undergoes supercritical Hopf bifurcation. The convex structure of our model implies that if interior equilibrium would exist, it should be unique, which implies in turn that the dimension of a stable manifold of each closed orbit thus bifurcated in the five-dimensional stationary system should be two, since the bifurcation is supercritical and since the number of predetermined variable in this system is two. In other words, a closed orbit around the BGP is locally determinate and stable.

The rest of the paper is composed of the following sections. Section 2 presents our model. Section 3 characterizes equilibrium dynamics of the model. Section 4 applies bifurcation analyses to the equilibrium dynamics.  A set of appendices has been gathered at the end of the paper.

2 The model

The present study considers a continuous time and three-sector model of optimal endogenous growth with three types of heterogenous capital goods Ki, i = 1, 2, 3. Each sector accumulates each type of capital goods. The goods produced by the first sector is also utilized as consumption goods C. Formally the model is given by the following intertemporal optimization problem.

(1)MaxC,Kij,i,j=1,2,30C1σ11σeρtdt

subject to

C>0,Kij0,i,j=1,2,3,Ki>0,i=1,2,3,K˙1=e1(K11)β11(K21)β21(K31)β31CgK1K˙2=e2(K12)β12(K22)β22(K32)β32gK2K˙3=e3(K13)β13(K23)β23(K33)β33gK3K11+K12+K13=K1K21+K22+K23=K2K31+K32+K33=K3K1(0)=K¯1>0,K2(0)=K¯2>0,K3(0)=K¯3>0,

where Kij is an input of the i-th capital into the j-th sector, and K¯i>0 is an initial endowment of the i-th capital, and where σ > 0, ρ > 0, ei > 0, βij > 0, and g ≥ 0. We assume constant returns to scale technology.

β1j+β2j+β3j=1,j=1,2,3.

For the given intertemporal optimization problem (1), C, and Kij,i,j=1,2,3, are control variables, Ki,i=1,2,3, are state variables, and (K1(0),K2(0),K3(0)) = (K¯1,K¯2,K¯3) is an initial condition. An optimal solution of the problem (1) should satisfy

(2)0|C1σ11σ|eρtdt<+.

The condition (2) is called the summability condition.

Intertemporal elasticity of substitution 1/σ and rate of time preference ρ are constant, and production functions are homogenous of degree one with respect to reproducible production factors. The structures of preference and of technology are compatible with the existence of a BGP. The present study imposes further restrictions on parameters characterizing preference and technology in order to guarantee that there is an interior optimal BGP on which consumption goods and each capital grows endogenously with positive constant rates and on which the transversality and the summability conditions are satisfied.

Let bi, i = 1, 2, 3, be defined as

b1:=(β11)β11(β21)β21(β31)β31b2:=(β12)β12(β22)β22(β32)β32b3:=(β13)β13(β23)β23(β33)β33.

Let B be a 3 × 3 matrix defined as

B:=[β11β12β13β21β22β23β31β32β33].

In the present study we make the following assumption.

Assumption 1

  1. There is a positive constant μ > 0 that satisfies the following conditions.

    1. e1=ρ+g+σμb1, e2=ρ+g+σμb2, and e3=ρ+g+σμb3.

    2. ρ(1σ)μ>0.

  2. detB0.

Let ω > 0 be defined as

ω:=ρ+g+σμ.

Let C denote the inverse matrix of B.

C:=B1.

Let 1:=(1,1,1). Then we have

1B=11C=1.

Let I3 denote the 3 × 3 identity matrix, and let e1:=(1,0,0)T.[4] Then we have the following result. See Appendix 1 for the proof.

Lemma 1

Suppose that Assumption 1 is satisfied.

  1. det(ωC(g+μ)I3)0.

  2. Each element of the 3 × 1 vector (ωC(g+μ)I3)1e1 is strictly positive.

Lemma 1 will guarantee the existence of an interior BGP. If one provides ρ, σ, μ, g, and B with numeric values, then numeric values of ei,i=1,2,3, C, ω, and (ωC(g+μ)I3)1e1 are uniquely determined. The following three parametric examples satisfy Assumption 1.

Example 1

ρ=5100, σ=14, μ=3100, g=2100, and

B=[7151513151120141314512].
Example 2

ρ=5100, σ=32, μ=3100, g=2100, and

B=[5121413141120151315715].
Example 3

ρ=5100, σ=5100, μ=3100, g=2100, and

B=[1613121351214121414].

3 Equilibrium dynamics

3.1 Maximum principle

In the present study that treats a multi-sector model, we have to make explicit whether a given vector is either a row vector or a column vector, in order to avoid possible confusion. In the present study, ℝn refers to a set of all real 1×nrow vectors. Hence if aRn, then a refers to a 1×nrow vector, and aT refers to an n × 1 column vector.

The problem (1) is solved by defining the current value Hamiltonian and the current value maximized Hamiltonian , and by applying the maximum principle to . Let K=(K1,K2,K3)R++3, P=(P1,P2,P3)R++3, and W=(W1,W2,W3)R+3. The current value Hamiltonian H=H(K,P,C,{Kij}i,j=1,2,3,W) is given by

H=C1σ11σ+P1(e1(K11)β11(K21)β21(K31)β31CgK1)+P2(e2(K12)β12(K22)β22(K32)β32gK2)+P3(e3(K13)β13(K23)β23(K33)β33gK3)+W1(K1(K11+K12+K13))+W2(K2(K21+K22+K23))+W3(K3(K31+K32+K33)),

where C > 0, and Kij0,i,j=1,2,3, and where Pi is an imputed price of Ki, and Wi is a rental price of Ki. Note that H=H(K,P,C,{Kij}i,j=1,2,3,W) is concave in (K,C,{Kij}i,j=1,2,3).

Let cij denote the (i, j)-element of C for each i,j=1,2,3. Let Wi(P),i=1,2,3 be functions of PR++3 defined as

W1(P):=ωP1c11P2c21P3c31W2(P):=ωP1c12P2c22P3c32W3(P):=ωP1c13P2c23P3c33.

Let W(P):=(W1(P),W2(P),W3(P)). Let H(P) be a 3 × 3 matrix-valued function of PR++3 defined as

H(P):=[1P10001P20001P3]C[W1(P)000W2(P)000W3(P)].

By construction we have

H(P)=ω[c11P1c111P2c21P3c31c12P1c121P2c22P3c32c13P1c131P2c23P3c33c21P1c11P2c211P3c31c22P1c12P2c221P3c32c23P1c13P2c231P3c33c31P1c11P2c21P3c311c32P1c12P2c22P3c321c33P1c13P2c23P3c331].

Since 1C=1, we also have

W(P)=PH(P).

Let 03:=(0,0,0)T. Let N be a set in R++6 defined as

(3)N:={(K,P)R++6:H(P)KT>03}.

At the end of the present subsection we shall show that N is a non-empty open subset of R++6. Let Y(K,P)=(Y1(K,P),Y2(K,P),Y3(K,P))R++3 be a 1 × 3 vector-valued functions of (K,P)N defined as

Y(K,P)T:=H(P)KT.

Let C(P1) be defined as C(P1):=P11σ for P1>0. For (K,P)N, let Kij(K,P),i,j=1,2,3, be defined as

Kij(K,P):=βijPjWi(P)Yj(K,P).

Then we have

(4)CH(K,P,C(P1),{Kij}i,j=1,2,3,W)=0
(5)KijH(K,P,C,{Kij(K,P)}i,j=1,2,3,W(P))=0
(6)j=13Kij(K,P)=Ki.

Let H:NR be defined as

H(K,P):=H(K,P,P11σ,{Kij(K,P)}i,j=1,2,3,W(P)).

Then by the equalities (4), (5), and (6), is the maximized Hamiltonian of for (K,P)N. Since is concave in (K,C,{Kij}i,j=1,2,3), is concave in K by the lemma in Kamien and Schwartz (1991, p. 222). Hence we can apply the maximum principle to H=H(K,P) for (K,P)N. We obtain the following system of ordinary differential equations and of boundary conditions.

(7)[K˙1K˙2K˙3]=(H(P1,P2,P3)gI3)[K1K2K3][P11σ00]
(8)P˙1=(ρ+g)P1ωP1c11P2c21P3c31P˙2=(ρ+g)P2ωP1c12P2c22P3c32P˙3=(ρ+g)P3ωP1c13P2c23P3c33
(9)(K1(0),K2(0),K3(0))=(K¯1,K¯2,K¯3)
(10)limteρt(P1(t)K1(t)+P2(t)K2(t)+P3(t)K3(t))=0
(11)t0:(K(t),P(t))N,

where Ki is a predetermined variable, Pi is a non-predetermined variable, the condition (9) is an initial condition, and the condition (10) is the transversality condition. The interiority condition (11) guarantees that the maximized Hamiltonian is well defined. If a solution of this system satisfies the summability condition (2), the solution is an optimal solution of the problem (1).

Suppose that an interior BGP exists, and let μK and μP be balanced growth rates of capital and of its imputed price, respectively. Then we have μP=σμK from the equation (7), and μP=σμ from the equation (8). Thus by Assumption 1.1 μK=μ>0, and by Assumption 1.1.b the transversality and summability conditions are satisfied on the BGP.

Before leaving the present subsection, we construct a candidate of an interior BGP of the optimal endogenous growth model (1). Let X¯R3 be defined as

(12)X¯T:=(ωC(g+μ)I3)1e1.

By Lemma 1X¯T>03. Let Λ¯ be a one-dimensional manifold in R++6 defined as

(13)Λ¯:={(K,P)R++6:λ>0:(K,P)=(λX¯,λσ1)}.

Then Λ¯N, because for λ > 0,

H(λσ1)λX¯T=ωCλX¯T=λ((g+μ)X¯T+e1)>03.

Since H(P)KT is continuous in (K,P)R++6, N is a non-empty open subset of R++6. Therefore N includes some open-neighborhood of Λ¯. In the next subsection we shall show that Λ¯ constitutes an interior BGP of the growth model (1).

3.2 Decomposition

The present section decomposes the six-dimensional system of equations (7) and (8) into five-dimensional stationary autonomous component and one-dimensional endogenously growing component. Let f1=f1(x,y) and f2=f2(x,y) be functions of (x,y)R2 defined as

f1(x,y):=ω(ec13x+c23ye(c21+c31)x+c21y)f2(x,y):=ω(ec13x+c23yec12x(c12+c32)y).

Let l=l(x) be a function of xR given by the definition (33) in Appendix 2. Let L=L(x,y) be a 3 × 3 matrix-valued function of (x,y)R2 given by the definition (34) in Appendix 2. Let h=h(x,y) be a function of (x,y)R2 given by the definition (35) in Appendix 2. By construction each of these functions is sufficiently smooth, l(0)=0, L(0,0)=O3, and h(0,0)=0, where O3 denotes the 3 × 3 zero-matrix. Let e3:=(0,0,1)T. Let Xi, i = 1, 2, .., 5 be defined as

X1:=P1P3, X2:=P2P3,X3:=K1P31σ,X4:=K2P31σ,X5:=K3P31σ.

Let ki:=logKi, and pi:=logPi, i = 1, 2, 3. Let xi:=logXi, i = 1, 2, .., 5. Then by the relation (36) in Appendix 2 the six-dimensional system of equations (7) and (8) are decomposed into the following three components.

(14)[x˙1x˙1]=[f1(x1,x2)f2(x1,x2)]
(15)[X˙3X˙4X˙5]=(ωC(g+μ)I3)[X3X4X5]e1+L(x1,x2)[X3X4X5]l(1σx1)e1ωσh(x1,x2)[X3X4X5]
(16)k˙3=e3TωC[X3X5X4X51]g+e3TL(x1,x2)[X3X5X4X51].

The system (14) is a two-dimensional stationary autonomous component. The system composed of the differential equations (14) and (15) is a five-dimensional stationary autonomous component. The equation (16) is one-dimensional endogenously growing component.

Let (x1,x2,X3,X4,X5) be defined as

(x1,x2,X3,X4,X5):=(0,0,X¯),

where X¯ is given by the definition (12). Then (x1,x2,X3,X4X5) is a steady state of the five-dimensional autonomous stationary system composed of the differential equations (14) and (15). Since X¯T>03 by Lemma 1, xi=logXi, i = 3, 4, 5 are well defined. Let T(σ) be the 5 × 6 matrix given by the definition (37) in Appendix 3. The rank of T(σ) is five. Consider the following one-dimensional manifold Λ in R++6.

Λ:={(K,P)R++6:T(σ)[k1k2k3p1p2p3]=[00x3x4x5]}.

By the relation (38) in Appendix 3, the manifold Λ constitutes a BGP of the optimal growth model (1). We obtain from the construction of T(σ), (K,P)Λ, if and only if (K,P)=(λX¯,λσ1) for λ=P31σ. Therefore we have

Λ=Λ¯N,

where Λ¯ and N are the sets given by the definitions (13) and (3). Since ΛN, and since H(P)KT>03 for (K,P)N, the interiority condition (11) is satisfied on Λ and on some open neighborhood of it. As mentioned in the previous subsection, by Assumption 1.1.b the transversality and the summability conditions are satisfied on Λ. Thus we have the following proposition.

Proposition 1

Suppose that Assumption 1 is satisfied. The optimal growth model (1) has an interior equilibrium BGP.

Before leaving the present subsection, consider the following set N1 in R2×R++3 for the later use.

N1:={(x1,X2)R2×R++3:(ωC+L(x1))X2T>03}.

By construction, H(P)KT>03 if and only if (ωC+L(x1))X2T>03P3>0 with (x1,X2)=(x1, x2, X3, X4, X5). Therefore, (K,P)N, if and only if (x1,x2,X3,X4,X5)N1P3>0. The set N1 includes the steady state (0,0,X3,X4,X5) and some open neighborhood of it. Consider also the following set N2 in ℝ5 for the later use.

N2:={(x1,x2,x3,x4,x5)R5:(x1,x2,ex3,ex4,ex5)N1}.

Then by construction, (K,P)N, if and only if (x1,x2,x3,x4,x5)N2P3>0. The set N2 includes the point (0,0,x3,x4,x5) and some open neighborhood of it.

3.3 Transitional dynamics

The present section considers the transitional dynamics and the local determinacy of equilibrium around the BGP Λ in terms of predetermined and non-predetermined variables. Let zi, i = 1, 2, and qi, i = 1, 2, 3 be variables given by the definition (39) in Appendix 3. And let M(σ) be the 5 × 5 matrix given by the definition (40) in Appendix 3. Then detM(σ)0, and we have (z1,z2,q1,q2,q3)=(x1,x2,x3,x4,x5)M(σ)T and (x1,x2,x3,x4,x5)=(z1,z2,q1,q2,q3)(M(σ)1)T. See the relation (41) in Appendix 3. By construction zi, i = 1, 2 are predetermined variables and qi, i = 1, 2, 3 are non-predetermined variables. Let (z1,z2,q1,q2,q3) be defined as

(z1,z2,q1,q2,q3):=(0,0,x3,x4,x5)M(σ)T.

Then (z1,z2,q1,q2,q3)(M(σ)1)TN2, and let N3 be a set in ℝ5 defined as

N3:={(z1,z2,q1,q2,q3)R5:(z1,z2,q1,q2,q3)(M(σ)1)TN2}.

Then (z1,z2,q1,q2,q3)N3, and the set N3 includes some open neighborhood of it. By construction, (K,P)N, if and only if (z1,z2,q1,q2,q3)N3P3>0. Therefore in some open neighborhood of (z1,z2,q1,q2,q3), the maximized Hamiltonian is well defined, and local dynamics near the steady state (z1,z2,q1,q2,q3) is also well defined.

Let J be a 2 × 2 matrix defined as

J:=ω[c13+c21+c31(c21c23)c13c12c23+c12+c32].

Then the characteristic roots of the five-dimensional autonomous stationary system composed of the differential equations (14) and (15) evaluated at the steady state (0,0,X¯) are given by two characteristic roots of J and three characteristic roots of ωC(g+μ)I3. Consider Example 1, Example 2, Example 3 in Section 2. Each of these examples has two stable roots and three unstable roots. (x1,x2,x3,x4,x5) one to one corresponds to (z1,z2,q1,q2,q3) that includes two predetermined and three non-predetermined variables. Thus in each of these examples, the interior BGP is saddle point stable.

Observation 1

For some parameter values of (ρ,σ,μ,g,B), the optimal growth model (1) has an interior equilibrium BGP that is saddle point stable.

Since (z1,z2,q1,q2,q3) includes two predetermined variables zi,i=1,2, the stationary autonomous dynamics (14) and (15) might have a closed orbit that is locally determinate and locally stable around an unstable BGP. In other words, the BGP might not always be saddle point stable. For η > 0, let B¯(η) be a 3 × 3 matrix defined as

(17)B¯(η):=[1(2+3η)(2+2η)5+12η+9η2(2+3η)(1+η)5+12η+9η2(2+3η)η5+12η+9η2(2+3η)η5+12η+9η21(2+3η)(1+2η)5+12η+9η2(2+3η)(1+η)5+12η+9η2(2+3η)(2+η)5+12η+9η2(2+3η)η5+12η+9η21(2+3η)(1+2η)5+12η+9η2].

Each element of B¯(η) is positive and less than 1, and 1B¯(η)=1. We have

detB¯(η)=15+12η+9η2>0.

Let c¯ij=c¯ij(η) be the (i, j)-element of the inverse matrix of B¯(η) for each i,j=1,2,3. Then we have

ω[c¯13+c¯21+c¯31(c¯21c¯23)c¯13c¯12c¯23+c¯12+c¯32]=ω[0(2+3η)2+3η0].

And the corresponding autonomous dynamics (14) has a pair of pure imaginary complex conjugate roots at a steady state.[5] This suggests that the system (14) undergoes Hopf bifurcation under perturbations of the technology matrix B¯(η). We conduct an exact bifurcation analysis in the next section.

4 Existence and stability of closed orbit

4.1 Hopf bifurcation

The present subsection applies the Hopf bifurcation theorem to the two-dimensional autonomous system (14). For η > 0, let B¯(η) be the 3 × 3 matrix given by the definition (17). For η > 0 and for ν in some neighborhood of 0, let B(ν,η) be a 3 × 3 matrix defined as

(18)B(ν,η):=B¯(η)+[ν00ν00000].

As νvaries around 0, the matrix B(ν,η) generates perturbations of the matrix B¯(η). We have 1B(ν,η)=1 and

detB(ν,η)=13(1+η)ν5+12η+9η2.

Suppose η > 0 and 13(1+η)ν0. Let C(ν,η) denote the inverse matrix of B(ν,η).

C(ν,η):=B(ν,η)1.

Let cij(ν,η) denote the (i, j)-element of C(ν,η) for each i,j=1,2,3. Let J(ν,η,ω) be a 2×2 matrix defined as

(19)J(ν,η,ω):=ω[c13(ν,η)+c21(ν,η)+c31(ν,η)(c21(ν,η)c23(ν,η))c13(ν,η)c12(ν,η)c23(ν,η)+c12(ν,η)+c32(ν,η)].

Then we obtain the following relation.

J(ν,η,ω)=ω[3(1+η)13(1+η)νν2+3η13(1+η)ν+5+12η+9η213(1+η)νν2+3η13(1+η)ν2+9η+9η213(1+η)νν].

And we have

ddν[trJ(ν,η,ω)]|ν=0=ω(9η2+6η1).

By construction the following four relations hold for η > 0.

  1. If 2η+3η25+12η+9η2<ν<1+2η+3η25+12η+9η2, then 0<1(2+3η)(2+2η)5+12η+9η2ν<1, and 0<(2+3η)η5+12η+9η2+ν<1.

  2. If ν<13(1+η), then detB(ν,η)>0.

  3. If 2(1+2)(2+3η)5+12η+9η2<ν<2(21)(2+3η)5+12η+9η2, then the characteristic roots of J(ν,η,ω) are a pair of conjugate complex roots.

  4. If η213, then ddν[trJ(ν,η,ω)]|ν=00.

Let ν1=ν1(η) and ν2=ν2(η) be functions of η > 0 defined as

(20)ν1(η):=2+3η5+12η+9η2min{η,2(1+2)}ν2(η):=min{1+2η+3η25+12η+9η2,13(1+η),2(21)(2+3η)5+12η+9η2},

where min{x,y} and min{x,y,z} denote the minimum element of each set. In the rest of the paper we make the following assumption.

Assumption 2

  1. η > 0 and η213.

  2. ν1(η)<ν<ν2(η).

Let f1(η,ω)=f1(x,y,ν,η,ω) and f2(η,ω)=f2(x,y,ν,η,ω) be functions of (x,y,ν)R2×(ν1(η),ν2(η)) defined as

(21)f1(x,y,ν,η,ω):=ω(ec13(ν,η)x+c23(ν,η)ye(c21(ν,η)+c31(ν,η))x+c21(ν,η)y)f2(x,y,ν,η,ω):=ω(ec13(ν,η)x+c23(ν,η)yec12(ν,η)x(c12(ν,η)+c32(ν,η))y).

Consider the following one-parameter family of ordinary differential equations parametrized by ν(ν1(η),ν2(η)).

(22)[x˙1x˙2]=[f1(x1,x2,ν,η,ω)f2(x1,x2,ν,η,ω)].

Each element of this family is the two-dimensional autonomous system (14) with C=B(ν,η)1. The Jacobian matrix of the right hand side of the differential equation (22) evaluated at a steady state (x1,x2)=(0,0) is given by J(ν,η,ω). And we have

J(0,η,ω)=[0(2+3η)ω(2+3η)ω0].

By Assumption 2J(ν,η,ω) has a pair of conjugate complex roots as its characteristic roots. Let λ(ν,η,ω) and λ¯(ν,η,ω) be conjugate complex characteristic rotos of J(ν,η,ω), and let Re(λ(ν,η,ω)) be the real part of λ(ν,η,ω). Then we obtain

ddνRe(λ(ν,η,ω))|ν=0=ω2(9η2+6η1).

By Assumption 2.1 we have

ddνRe(λ(ν,η,ω))|ν=00.

Let a=a(η,ω) be a number defined by the formula (42) in Appendix 4. Let a^=a^(η,ω) be a number defined by the formula (43) in Appendix 5. Then one can derive the following relation from routine, albeit tedious, calculations under Assumption 2.1.

a(η,ω)=a^(η,ω).

Therefore the following proposition holds by the Hopf bifurcation theorem (Guckenheimer and Holmes [1983, Theorem 3.4.2]).

Proposition 2

Suppose that Assumption 2 is satisfied. Let a=a(η,ω) be a number defined by the formula (42). If a < 0, the system (22) undergoes supercritical Hopf bifurcation at ν = 0. If a > 0, the system (22) undergoes subcritical Hopf bifurcation at ν = 0.

The following three examples satisfy Assumption 2. Recall ω:=ρ+g+σμ. In each example, ddνRe(λ(ν,η))|ν=0>0, and a(η,ω)<0. Thus as νincreases and crosses 0, a locally unique steady state (x1,x2)=(0,0) loses its stability, and the system (22) undergoes supercritical Hopf bifurcation.

Example 4

Let ρ=5100, σ=5100, μ=3100, g=2100, and η = 1. Then one obtains

B¯(η)=[313513526526112651315265261126]
J(0,η,ω)=[01434001434000]
ddνRe(λ(ν,η,ω))|ν=0=10012000, and a(η,ω)=11256.
Example 5

Let ρ=5100, σ=110, μ=2100, g=2100, and η=12. Then one obtains

B¯(η)=[115321537537532553215335537532553]
J(0,η,ω)=[063250632500]
ddνRe(λ(ν,η,ω))|ν=0=1531000, and a(η,ω)=9261424000.
Example 6

Let ρ=5100, σ=32, μ=3100, g=2100, and η = 3. Then one obtains

B¯(η)=[176122613312233122451222261551223312245122]
J(0,η,ω)=[02532002532000]
ddνRe(λ(ν,η,ω))|ν=0=1127200, and a(η,ω)=3061397600.

The following example satisfies Assumption 2. In this example, ddνRe(λ(ν,η))|ν=0<0, and a(η,ω)<0. Thus as νdecreases and crosses 0, a locally unique steady state (x1,x2)=(0,0) loses its stability, and the system (22) undergoes supercritical Hopf bifurcation.

Example 7

Let ρ=5100, σ=32, μ=3100, g=2100, and η=110. Then one obtains

B¯(η)=[123629253629236292362935362925362948362923629353629]
J(0,η,ω)=[0529200052920000]
ddνRe(λ(ν,η,ω))|ν=0=71340000, and a(η,ω)=3078251201280000.

4.2 Center manifold reduction

The present subsection constructs one-parameter family of optimal growth models parametrized by ν based on the optimal growth model (1), and applies the center manifold reduction to equilibrium dynamics of this parametrized family of models and obtains a bifurcation diagram in order to analyze the stability and the determinacy of equilibrium around a closed orbit obtained by supercritical Hopf bifurcation.

Let Γ, Π, and Θ be defined as

(23)Γ:={ηR++:η213}Π:={(ρ,σ,μ,g)R++3×R+:ρ(1σ)μ>0}Θ:=Γ×Π.

For η ∈ Γ, let β¯ij(η) denote the (i, j)-element of B¯(η). For η ∈ Γ and for ν(ν1(η),ν2(η)), let βij(ν,η) denote the (i, j)-element of B(ν,η). For η ∈ Γ and for ν(ν1(η),ν2(η)), let b1(ν,η), b2(η), and b3(η) be defined as

b1(ν,η):=(β11(ν,η))β11(ν,η)(β21(ν,η))β21(ν,η)(β¯31(η))β¯31(η)b2(η):=(β¯12(η))β¯12(η)(β¯22(η))β¯22(η)(β¯32(η))β¯32(η)b3(η):=(β¯13(η))β¯13(η)(β¯23(η))β¯23(η)(β¯33(η))β¯33(η).

For π ∈ Π, let ω(π) be defined as

ω(π):=ρ+g+σμ.

For θ=(η,π)Θ and for ν(ν1(η),ν2(η)), let e1(ν,θ), e2(θ) and e3(θ) be defined as

e1(ν,θ):=ω(π)b1(ν,η),e2(θ):=ω(π)b2(η),e3(θ)=ω(π)b3(η).

Then Assumption 1 and Assumption 2 are satisfied for a given θ=(η,π)Θ and for each ν(ν1(η),ν2(η)). In the rest of the present subsection we suppose that

θ=(η,π)Θ=Γ×Π.

We have the following lemma. See Appendix 6 for the proof.

Lemma 2

Suppose that (η,π)Θ. Then each characteristic root of ω(π)C(0,η)(g+μ)I3 has a strictly positive real part.

Consider the following one-parameter family of optimal growth models parametrized by ν(ν1(η),ν2(η)).

(24)MaxC,Kij,i,j=1,2,30C1σ11σeρtdt

subject to

C>0,Kij0,i,j=1,2,3,Ki>0,i=1,2,3,K˙1=e1(ν,θ)(K11)β11(ν,η)(K21)β21(ν,η)(K31)β¯31(η)CgK1K˙2=e2(θ)(K12)β¯12(η)(K22)β¯22(η)(K32)β¯32(η)gK2K˙3=e3(θ)(K13)β¯13(η)(K23)β¯23(η)(K33)β¯33(η)gK3K11+K12+K13=K1K21+K22+K23=K2K31+K32+K33=K3K1(0)=K¯1>0,K2(0)=K¯2>0,K3(0)=K¯3>0.

By Lemma 1 for ν(ν1(η),ν2(η)), det(ω(π)C(ν,η)(g+μ)I3)0, and each component of (ω(π)C(ν,η)(g+μ)I3)1e1 is strictly positive. Let X(ν,θ)R++3 be defined as

X(ν,θ)T:=(ω(π)C(ν,η)(g+μ)I3)1e1.

Recall that cij(ν,η) is the (i, j)-element of C(ν,η). Since detB(ν,η)>0, cij(ν,η) is at least twice continuously differentiable relative to ν. Let fi(η,ω)=fi(x,y,ν,η,ω), i = 1, 2, be functions of (x,y,ν)R2×(ν1(η),ν2(η)) given by the defining functions (21). Then each of fi(x,y,ν,η,ω(π)), i = 1, 2, is at least twice continuously differentiable relative to (x,y,ν) with fi(0,0,ν,η,ω(π))=0. Substitute cij(ν,η),i,j=1,2,3 for each cij that appears in the defining functions (34) and (35) in Appendix 2, and denote the functions thus obtained by L(ν,η,ω)=L(x,y,ν,η,ω) and h(ν,η)=h(x,y,ν,η). Then each of L(x,y,ν,η,ω(π)) and h(x,y,ν,η) is at least twice continuously differentiable relative to (x,y,ν)R2×(ν1(η),ν2(η)) with L(0,0,ν,η,ω(π))=O3 and with h(0,0,ν,η)=0. Let l=l(x) be an analytical function given by the defining function (33) in Appendix 2. By construction l(0)=0.

Consider the following six-dimensional system of autonomous differential equations.

(25)[x˙1x˙2]=[f1(x1,x2,ν,η,ω(π))f2(x1,x2,ν,η,ω(π))]
(26)[X˙3X˙4X˙5]=(ω(π)C(ν,η)(g+μ)I3)[X3X4X5]e1+L(x1,x2,ν,η,ω(π))[X3X4X5]l(1σx1)e1ω(π)σh(x1,x2,ν,η)[X3X4X5]
(27)ν˙=0,

where (x1,x2,X3,X4,X5,ν)R2×R++3×(ν1(η),ν2(η)). The right hand side of the system of differential equations composed of (25), (26) and (27) is at least twice continuously differentiable relative to (x1,x2,X3,X4,X5,ν)R2×R++3×(ν1(η),ν2(η)).[6](x1,x2,X3,X4,X5,ν)=(0,0,X(ν,θ),0) is a steady state of this system. Characteristic roots of the system at this steady state are given by those of J(0,η,ω(π)), those of ω(π)C(0,η)(g+μ)I3, and 0, where J(ν,η,ω) is a 2×2 matrix given by the definition (19). Since J(0,η,ω(π)) has two center roots as a characteristic root, and since ω(π)C(0,η)(g+μ)I3 has three unstable roots as a characteristic root by Lemma 2, the system composed of (25) and (27) constitutes a bifurcation diagram.[7]

Let μ^(θ):R2×R++3×(ν1(η),ν2(η))R be a continuos function of (x1,x2,X3,X4,X5,ν) defined as

μ^(x1,x2,X3,X4,X5,ν,θ):=e3Tω(π)C(ν,η)[X3X5X4X51]g+e3TL(x1,x2,ν,η,ω(π))[X3X5X4X51].

For ν(ν1(η),ν2(η)), we obtain from the equation (16)

μ^(0,0,X(ν,θ),ν,θ)=μ

with ρ(1σ)μ>0.

Let H(P1,P2,P3,ν,θ) be a 3 × 3 matrix-valued function of (P1,P2,P3,ν)R++3×(ν1(η),ν2(η)) defined as

H(P1,P2,P3,ν,θ):=ω(π)C(ν,η)+L(logP1P3,logP2P3,ν,η,ω(π)).

Let N(ν,θ) be a set defined as N(ν,θ):={(K,P)R++6:H(P,ν,θ)KT>03}.

Let N1(ν,θ) be a set defined as

N1(ν,θ):={(x1,X2)R2×R++3:[ω(π)C(ν,η)+L(x1,ν,η,ω(π))]X2T>03}.

By construction for ν(ν1(η),ν2(η)),

(0,0,X(ν,θ))N1(ν,θ),

and also by construction for ν(ν1(η),ν2(η)), (K,P)N(ν,θ), if and only if (x1,x2,X3,X4,X5)N1(ν,θ)P3>0.

Let a=a(η,ω) be a number defined by the formula (42) in Appendix 4. Let Θ1 be a set defined as

(28)Θ1:={(η,π)Θ:a(η,ω(π))<0}.

As shown by Example 4 to Example 7, Θ1 is non-empty. For ε > 0, let U(0,0,ε)R2 be defined as

U(0,0,ε):={(x,y)R2:x2+y2<ε}.

Then the following proposition holds by the center manifold theorem (Guckenheimer and Holmes [1983, Theorem 3.2.1]) and the Hopf bifurcation theorem (Guckenheimer and Holmes [1983, Theorem 3.4.2]).

Proposition 3

Suppose that θΘ1. Then there is a set of positive constants (ε0(θ),ε1(θ),ε2(θ))R++3 with the following properties.

  1. There is an open subsetM(θ)ofU(0,0,ε0(θ))such that(0,0)M(θ)and thatM(θ)is homeomorphic toU(0,0,1).

  2. 0<ε1(θ)ν1(η), and0<ε2(θ)ν2(η).

    1. Suppose thatη<213. For eachν(ε1(θ),0), the system (25) has a unique closed orbit inM(θ), andM(θ){(0,0)}constitutes a stable manifold of this closed orbit in the system (25). For eachν[0,ε2(θ)), the system (25) has a unique stable steady state (0, 0) inM(θ), andM(θ)constitutes a stable manifold of this steady state.

    2. Suppose thatη>213. For eachν(ε1(θ),0], the system (25) has a unique stable steady state (0, 0) inM(θ), andM(θ)constitutes a stable manifold of this steady state. For eachν(0,ε2(θ)), the system (25) has a unique closed orbit inM(θ), andM(θ){(0,0)}constitutes a stable manifold of this closed orbit in the system (25).

  3. For eachθΘ1, there exists a functionφ(θ)fromM(θ)×(ε1(θ),ε2(θ))toR++3with the following properties.

    1. φ(θ)=φ(x,y,ν,θ)is continuously differentiable relative to(x,y,ν)M(θ)×(ε1(θ),ε2(θ)).

    2. X(ν,θ)=φ(0,0,ν,θ).

    3. {(x1,X2,ν)M(θ)×R++3×(ε1(θ),ε2(θ)):X2=φ(x1,ν,θ)}

      constitutes a center manifold of the steady state(0,0,X(ν,θ),0)in the system of differential equations composed of (25), (26) and (27).

    4. For each(x1,ν)M(θ)×(ε1(θ),ε2(θ)),

      ρ(1σ)μ^(x1,φ(x1,ν,θ),ν,θ)>0.
    5. For eachν(ε1(θ),ε2(θ)),

      {(x1,X2)M(θ)×R++3:X2=φ(x1,ν,θ)}N1(ν,θ).

4.3 Stability of closed orbit

We have sufficient preparations to analyze the stability and the determinacy of equilibrium around a closed orbit obtained by the supercritical Hopf bifurcation. Let Φ1, Φ2, and Φ be defined as

(29)Φ1:={(ν,θ)R×Θ1:η<213ε1(θ)<ν<0}Φ2:={(ν,θ)R×Θ1:η>2130<ν<ε2(θ)}Φ:=Φ1Φ2.

Then Φ1 is non-empty by Proposition 3 and Example 7, and Φ2 is also non-empty by Proposition 3 and Example 4 to Example 6. In the present subsection we suppose that θΘ1 and that (ν,θ)Φ.

Let V(θ) be a set in ℝ5 defined as

V(θ):=M(θ)×R++3.

Let S(ν,θ)V(θ) be a two-dimensional manifold defined as

(30)S(ν,θ):={(x1,X2)M(θ)×R++3:x1(0,0)X2=φ(x1,ν,θ)}.

Let F(ν,θ):V(θ)R5 be a function of (x1,X2)M(θ)×R++3 given by the right hand side of the system of differential equations composed of (25) and (26). Consider the following ordinary differential equation.

(31)(x˙1,X˙2)T=F(x1,X2,ν,θ),

where (x1,X2)M(θ)×R++3. A steady state of the system (31) is given by (0,0,X(ν,θ)). By Lemma 2 and by Proposition 3.2 (0,0,X(ν,θ)) is a source, and its unstable manifold includes {(0,0)}×R++3. By Proposition 3.2 the system (31) has a closed orbit in S(ν,θ). We denote this closed orbit by γ(ν,θ). Let W(γ,ν,θ) be a set of all points in V(θ)N1(ν,θ)ω-limit points of which under the action of the differential equation (31) onto  N1(ν,θ) belongs to γ(ν,θ).[8] By Proposition 3.3.iv and v, a solution of the ordinary differential equation (31) starting from each given point in W(γ,ν,θ) constitutes an interior optimal solution of the intertemporal optimization problem (24). We have the following relations by construction and by Lemma 2 and Proposition 3.

S(ν,θ)W(γ,ν,θ)N1(ν,θ)W(γ,ν,θ)(M(θ){(0,0)})×R++3.

Therefore by the definition (30), if W(γ,ν,θ) is a two-dimensional manifold, then W(γ,ν,θ) coincides with S(ν,θ). And if W(γ,ν,θ)=S(ν,θ), then S(ν,θ) constitutes a local stable manifold of the closed orbit γ(ν,θ).

Let (z1,z2,q1,q2,q3) be a set of variables given by the definition (39) in Appendix 3. Then as discussed in Section 3.3, zi,i=1,2, are predetermined variables, and qi,i=1,2,3, are non-predetermined variables. Let M(σ) be the 5 × 5 matrix given by the definition (40) in Appendix 3. Then detM(σ)0, and for x1=(x1,x2)M(θ) and X2=(X3,X4,X5)R++3, we have

(32)(z1,z2,q1,q2,q3)=(x1,x2,logX3,logX4,logX5)M(σ)T(x1,x2,logX3,logX4,logX5)=(z1,z2,q1,q2,q3)(M(σ)1)T.

Let W(x¯,γ,ν,θ) be a set defined as W(x¯,γ,ν,θ):={(x1,x2,x3,x4,x5)M(θ)×R3:(x1,x2,ex3,ex4,ex5)W(γ,ν,θ)}.

Let N2(ν,θ) be a set defined as

N2(ν,θ):={(x1,x2,x3,x4,x5)R5:(x1,x2,ex3,ex4,ex5)N1(ν,θ)}.

By construction  W(x¯,γ,ν,θ)N2(ν,θ). Let W(z¯,q¯,γ,ν,θ) be a set defined as

W(z¯,q¯,γ,ν,θ):={(z,q)R2×R3:(z,q)(M(σ)1)TW(x¯,γ,ν,θ)}.

Then by construction W(z¯,q¯,γ,ν,θ) one to one corresponds to W(γ,ν,θ) under the coordinate transformation (32). Let Pr:R2×R3R2 be a projection operator defined as

Pr(z,q)=z

for (z,q)R2×R3. Let W(z¯,γ,ν,θ) be a set defined as

W(z¯,γ,ν,θ):=Pr(W(z¯,q¯,γ,ν,θ)).

In the optimal growth model (24) the preference is strictly concave and the technology is convex. Hence if the optimization problem (24) has an interior solution for a given value of initial endowment, then the optimal solution is unique for this value of initial endowment, and we infer from this convex structure that any given value of the predetermined variables zW(z¯,γ,ν,θ) uniquely corresponds to a value of the non-predetermined valuables qR3 in such a way that (z,q)W(z¯,q¯,γ,ν,θ). In fact we can show the following lemma by applying the theorem due to Benveniste and Scheinkman (1979) to the optimal growth model (24). See Nishimura and Shigoka (2019) for the proof.

Lemma 3

Suppose that (ν,θ)Φ. There exists a continuous function ψ(ν,θ) from W(z¯,γ,ν,θ) to R3 such that

{(z,q)W(z¯,γ,ν,θ)×R3:q=ψ(z,ν,θ)}=W(z¯,q¯,γ,ν,θ).

Lemma 3 asserts that the graph of the continuous function ψ(ν,θ) from zW(z¯,γ,ν,θ) to qR3 coincides with W(z¯,q¯,γ,ν,θ). Let S(x¯,γ,ν,θ) be a set defined as S(x¯,γ,ν,θ):={(x1,x2,x3,x4,x5)M(θ)×R3:(x1,x2,ex3,ex4,ex5)S(γ,ν,θ)}.

Let S(z¯,q¯,ν,θ) be a set defined as

S(z¯,q¯,γ,ν,θ):={(z,q)R2×R3:(z,q)(M(σ)1)TS(x¯,ν,θ)}.

Then by construction S(z¯,q¯,γ,ν,θ) is a two-dimensional manifold and

S(z¯,q¯,γ,ν,θ)W(z¯,q¯,γ,ν,θ).

On the other hand by Lemma 3W(z¯,q¯,γ,ν,θ) is included in an at most two-dimensional manifold. Therefore W(z¯,q¯,γ,ν,θ) is in itself a two-dimensional manifold. Hence by construction W(z¯,γ,ν,θ) and W(γ,ν,θ) are also two-dimensional manifolds. As mentioned above this implies that S(ν,θ) constitutes a local stable manifold of γ(ν,θ). Let (z(ν,θ),q(ν,θ)) be the point that corresponds to (0,0,X(ν,θ)) under the coordinate transformation (32). Then there exists a unique equilibrium for any given value of predetermined variables in the two-dimensional manifold {z(ν,θ)}W(z¯,γ,ν,θ). Therefore the following result holds.

Proposition 4

Suppose that (ν,θ)Φ. The system (31) has a closed orbit γ(ν,θ). The two-dimensional manifold (30) constitutes a local stable manifold of γ(ν,θ). There exists a unique equilibrium for any given value of predetermined variables in the two-dimensional manifold {z(ν,θ)}W(z¯,γ,ν,θ).

Award Identifier / Grant number: #15H05729, #16H0233598 and #23000001

Funding statement: This work was supported by the Japan Society for Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Research #15H05729, #16H0233598 and for Specially Promoted Research #23000001.

Acknowledgement

We are deeply grateful to an anonymous referee and Makoto Yano for their invaluable advice. Also we have benefitted from discussions with Shintaro Asaoka, Giovanni Bella and Luis Bettencourt.

Appendices

Appendix 1

Proof of Lemma 1.

By definition ωC(g+μ)I3=(ωI3(g+μ)B)C. By construction B is a nonnegative matrix whose Frobenius root is equal to 1. By Assumption 1.1.b ω(g+μ)=ρ+g+σμ(g+μ)=ρ(1σ)μ>0. Thus by the theorem of Perron-Frobenius (Nikaido [1968, Theorem 7.1]) det(ωI3(g+μ)B)0, and the inverse matrix of ωI3(g+μ)B is a non-negative matrix. Since det(ωI3(g+μ)B)0, det(ωC(g+μ)I3)0 by Assumption 1.2. (ωC(g+μ)I3)1e1=[(ωI3(g+μ)B)C]1e1=C1(ωI3(g+μ)B)1e1=B(ωI3(g+μ)B)1e1. Since B is a positive matrix, and since (ωI3(g+μ)B)1 is a non-negative matrix, each element of (ωC(g+μ)I3)1e1 is strictly positive.    □

Appendix 2

Suppose that detB0. Thus C does exist. Let dijs,i,j=1,2,3,s=1,2, be defined as

d111:=(c21+c31),d112:=c21d121:=(c22+c32),d122:=c22d131:=(c23+c33),d132:=c23d211:=c11,d212:=(c11+c31)d221:=c12,d222:=(c12+c32)d231:=c13,d232:=(c13+c33)d311:=c11,d312:=c21d321:=c12,d322:=c22d331:=c13,d332:=c23.

Let l=l(x) be a function of xR defined as

(33)l(x):=n=11n!xn.

Note that l=l(x) is an analytical function and that l(0)=0. Let L=L(x,y) be a 3 × 3 matrix-valued function of (x,y)R2 defied as

(34)L(x,y):=ω[c11l(d111x+d112y)c12l(d121x+d122y)c13l(d131x+d132y)c21l(d211x+d212y)c22l(d221x+d222y)c23l(d231x+d232y)c31l(d311x+d312y)c32l(d321x+d322y)c33l(d331x+d332y)].

Note that each element of L=L(x,y) is countably many differentiable relative to (x,y)R2 and that L(0,0)=O3, where O3 is the 3 × 3 zero-matrix. Let h=h(x,y) be a function of (x,y)R2 defined as

(35)h(x,y):=l(c13x+c23y).

Note that h=h(x,y) is countably many differentiable relative to (x,y)R2 and that h(0,0)=0.

By construction we have the following relation.

(36)H(P1,P2,P3)=ωC+L(logP1P3,logP2P3)P11σP31σ=1+l(1σlogP1P3)P1c13P2c23P3c331=1+h(logP1P3,logP2P3).

Appendix 3

Let T(σ) be a 5 × 6 matrix defined as

(37)T(σ):=[000101000011100001σ010001σ001001σ].

By construction the rank of T(σ) is five, and we have

(38)T(σ)[k1k2k3p1p2p3]=[x1x2x3x4x5].

Let Zi, i = 1, 2, and Qi, i = 1, 2, 3 be defined as

Z1:=K1K3,Z2:=K2K3,Q1:=P1K1σ,Q2:=P2K2σ,Q3:=P3K3σ.

Let (z1,z2,q1,q2,q3) be defined as

(39)(z1,z2,q1,q2,q3):=(logZ1,logZ2,logQ1,logQ2,logQ3).

Let M(σ) be a 5 × 5 matrix defined as

(40)M(σ):=[001010001110σ00010σ00000σ].

Then detM(σ)0, and its inverse M(σ)1 is given by

M(σ)1=[σ01010σ01110001σ01001σ00001σ].

Then by construction we have the following relation.

(41)[z1z2q1q2q3]=M(σ)[x1x2x3x4x5],[x1x2x3x4x5]=M(σ)1[z1z2q1q2q3].

Appendix 4

Let c¯ij=c¯ij(η) be the (i, j)-element of the inverse matrix of B¯(η). Let a=a(η,ω) be a number defined as

(42)a:=ω16[c¯133+(c¯21+c¯31)3+c¯13c¯232+c¯212(c¯21+c¯31)]+ω16[c¯132c¯23+c¯122(c¯12+c¯32)+c¯233+(c¯12+c¯32)3]+ω16(2+3η)[(c¯13c¯23+c¯21(c¯21+c¯31))(c¯132(c¯21+c¯31)2+c¯232c¯212)]ω16(2+3η)[(c¯13c¯23+c¯12(c¯12+c¯32))(c¯132c¯122+c¯232(c¯12+c¯32)2)]ω16(2+3η)[(c¯132(c¯21+c¯31)2)(c¯132c¯122)]+ω16(2+3η)[(c¯232c¯212)(c¯232(c¯12+c¯32)2)].

Appendix 5

Let c¯ij=c¯ij(η) be the (i, j)-element of the inverse matrix of B¯(η). Let f(η,ω)=f(x,y,η,ω), and g(η,ω)=g(x,y,η,ω) be functions of (x,y)R2 defined as

f(x,y,η,ω):=ω(ec¯13(η)x+c¯23(η)ye(c¯21(η)+c¯31(η))x+c¯21(η)y)ω[(c¯13(η)+c¯21(η)+c¯31(η))x(c¯21(η)c¯23(η))y]g(x,y,η,ω):=ω(ec¯13(η)x+c¯23(η)yec¯12(η)x(c¯12(η)+c¯32(η))y)ω[(c¯13(η)c¯12(η))x+(c¯23(η)+c¯12(η)+c¯32(η))y].

Then f(0,0,η,ω)=g(0,0,η,ω)=0 and Df(0,0,η,ω)=Dg(0,0,η,ω)=(0,0), where Df and Dg denote the derivatives of f and g relative to (x, y), respectively. By the definition (21) we have

[f1(x,y,0,η,ω)f2(x,y,0,η,ω)]=[0(2+3η)ω(2+3η)ω0][xy]+[f(x,y,η,ω)g(x,y,η,ω)].

Let a^=a^(η,ω) be a number defined as

(43)a^:=116[fxxx+fxyy+gxxy+gyyy]+116(2+3η)ω[fxy(fxx+fyy)gxy(gxx+gyy)fxxgxx+fyygyy),

where fxy denotes (2f/xy)(0,0,η,ω), etc. See Guckenheimer and Holmes (1983, pp. 152–153).

Appendix 6

Proof of Lemma 2.

Note that 1 is the Frobenius root of the positive matrix B¯(η). Let λ1(B) and λ2(B) be characteristic roots of B¯(η) other than 1. Then we have 1+λ1(B)+λ2(B)=trB¯(η) and λ1(B)×λ2(B)=detB¯(η). Since trB¯(η)1=25+12η+9η2, and since detB¯(η)=15+12η+9η2, λ1(B) and λ2(B) are solutions of the following quadratic equation.

x225+12η+9η2x+15+12η+9η2=0.

The solutions of this equation are given by x=15+12η+9η2(1±i4+12η+9η2), where i is the imaginary unit. The characteristic roots of C(0,η)=B¯(η)1 are the inverses of 1,λ1(B), and λ2(B). Thus 1 and 1±i4+12η+9η2 are characteristic roots of C(0,η). Since ω(π)(g+μ)=(ρ+g+σμ)(g+μ)=ρ(1σ)μ, this implies that characteristic roots of ω(π)C(0,η)(g+μ)I3 are given by ρ(1σ)μ and ρ(1σ)μ±iω(π)4+12η+9η2. The real parts of characteristic roots of ω(π)C(0,η)(g+μ)I3 are all equal to ρ(1σ)μ. Since π ∈ Π, ρ(1σ)μ>0.    □

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Supplementary Material

The online version of this article offers supplementary material (DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2019-0017).


Published Online: 2019-04-09

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