Home Die politische Ökonomie von Massenprotesten und Revolutionen
Article
Licensed
Unlicensed Requires Authentication

Die politische Ökonomie von Massenprotesten und Revolutionen

  • Thomas Apolte

    Thomas Apolte (geb. 1960) ist Inhaber des Lehrstuhls für Ökonomische Politikanalyse am Centrum für Interdisziplinäre Wirtschafts-forschung der Westfälischen Wilhelms-Universität Münster. Er hat Volkswirtschaftslehre an der Gerhard-Mercator-Universität Duisburg studiert und wurde dort auch promoviert. Nach einem einjährigen Aufenthalt als Visiting Assistant Professor an der Brigham Young University in Provo, Utah, USA, hat er in Duisburg habilitiert. Er war Gastprofessor an der Jagiellonen-Universität Krakau und Gastforscher am Center for Study of Public Choice der George Mason University sowie an der West-Virginia University. Seine Forschungsschwerpunkte liegen im Bereich der Public-Choice-Theorie und der Political Economy, insbesondere in der Erforschung politischer Regime, von Autokratie, politischen Konflikten, Revolutionen sowie der Resilienz demokratischer Systeme.

    EMAIL logo
Published/Copyright: December 7, 2021

Zusammenfassung

Im Herbst 1989 veränderten politische Proteste die Welt. Ein Regime nach dem anderen kollabierte unter dem Druck massenhafter Proteste, und es sah danach aus, als ob es sich kein Regime mehr leisten könne, den Willen und die Bedürfnisse der Bevölkerung zu ignorieren. Inzwischen ist dieser Eindruck breiter Ernüchterung gewichen. Vor allem nach offenkundig manipulierten Wahlen flammen zwar immer wieder Massenproteste auf, doch werden sie meist erfolgreich unterdrückt. In der modernen Politischen Ökonomie hat sich eine umfangreiche Literatur rund um diese Thematik etabliert. Thomas Apolte gibt in diesem Beitrag einen Überblick darüber und analysiert vor diesem Hintergrund, unter welchen Bedingungen sich in autokratischen Regimen Massenprotest formiert, wann solche Proteste die Stabilität eines autokratischen Regimes gefährden und, als Ausblick, wann ein Regimekollaps den Weg in eine demokratische Gesellschaft ebnen kann.

JEL Klassifikation: H10; N40; P48

Über den Autor / die Autorin

Thomas Apolte

Thomas Apolte (geb. 1960) ist Inhaber des Lehrstuhls für Ökonomische Politikanalyse am Centrum für Interdisziplinäre Wirtschafts-forschung der Westfälischen Wilhelms-Universität Münster. Er hat Volkswirtschaftslehre an der Gerhard-Mercator-Universität Duisburg studiert und wurde dort auch promoviert. Nach einem einjährigen Aufenthalt als Visiting Assistant Professor an der Brigham Young University in Provo, Utah, USA, hat er in Duisburg habilitiert. Er war Gastprofessor an der Jagiellonen-Universität Krakau und Gastforscher am Center for Study of Public Choice der George Mason University sowie an der West-Virginia University. Seine Forschungsschwerpunkte liegen im Bereich der Public-Choice-Theorie und der Political Economy, insbesondere in der Erforschung politischer Regime, von Autokratie, politischen Konflikten, Revolutionen sowie der Resilienz demokratischer Systeme.

Literaturverzeichnis

Acemoglu, D. und J. A. Robinson (2000a), Why did the West extend the franchise? Democracy, inequality, and growth in historical perspective, Quarterly Journal of Economics 115, S. 1167–99.10.1162/003355300555042Search in Google Scholar

Acemoglu, D. und J. A. Robinson (2000b), Inequality, growth and development, democratization or repression?, European Economic Review 44, S. 683–93.10.1016/S0014-2921(99)00040-9Search in Google Scholar

Acemoglu, D. und J. A. Robinson (2001), A theory of political transitions, American Economic Review 91, S. 938–63.10.1257/aer.91.4.938Search in Google Scholar

Acemoglu, D. und J. A. Robinson (2006), Economic Origins of Dicta-torship and Democracy, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Acemoglu, D. und J. A. Robinson (2012), Why Nations Fail, London, Profile Books.Search in Google Scholar

Acemoglu, D. und J. A. Robinson (2019), The Narrow Corridor, New York, Penguin Press.Search in Google Scholar

Aidt, T. S. und P. S. Jensen (2014), Workers of the world, unite! Franchise extensions and the threat of revolution in Europe, European Economic Review 72, S. 52–75.10.1016/j.euroecorev.2014.08.001Search in Google Scholar

Aidt, T. S. und R. Franck (2015), Democratization under the threat of revolution: Evidence from the Great Reform Act of 1832, Econometrica 83, S. 505–47.10.3982/ECTA11484Search in Google Scholar

Aidt, T. S. und G. Leon (2016), The democratic window of opportunity: Evidence from riots in Sub-Saharan Africa, Journal of Conflict Resolution 60, S. 694–717. 10.1177/0022002714564014Search in Google Scholar

Aidt, T. S. und G. Leon (2019), The coup, in R. Congleton, B. Grofman und S. Voigt (Hrsg.), Oxford Handbook of Public Choice, Bd. 2, Oxford, Oxford University Press, S. 328–44.10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190469771.013.15Search in Google Scholar

Aidt, T. S. und R. Franck (2019), What motivates an oligarchic elite to democratize? Evidence from the roll call vote on the Great Reform Act of 1832, Journal of Economic History 79, S. 773–825.10.1017/S0022050719000342Search in Google Scholar

Albrecht, H. und F. Eibl (2018), How to keep officers in the barracks: Causes, agents, and types of military coups, International Studies Quarterly 62, S. 315–28.10.1093/isq/sqx085Search in Google Scholar

Alesina, A., S. Özler, N. Roubini und P. Swagel (1996), Political instability and economic growth, Journal of Economic Growth 1, S. 189–211.10.1007/BF00138862Search in Google Scholar

Angeletos, G.-M., C. Hellwig und A. Pavan (2006), Signaling in a global game: Coordination and policy traps, Journal of Political Economy 114, S. 452–84.10.1086/504901Search in Google Scholar

Apolte, T. (2012), Why is there no revolution in North Korea? The Political Economy of revolution revisited, Public Choice 150, S. 561–78.10.1007/s11127-010-9716-4Search in Google Scholar

Apolte, T. (2016), Gordon Tullock’s theory of revolution and dictatorship, Constitutional Political Economy 27, S. 158–78.10.1007/s10602-016-9212-zSearch in Google Scholar

Apolte, T. (2019), Der Mythos der Revolution, Heidelberg, Sprin-ger.10.1007/978-3-658-27939-4Search in Google Scholar

Apolte, T. (2021), Mass protests, security-elite defection, and revolution, CIW Discussion Paper 2021(4). 10.1016/j.jce.2022.07.001Search in Google Scholar

Apolte, T. und J. Müller (2021), The persistence of political myths and ideologies, European Journal of Political Economy, im Erscheinen.10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102076Search in Google Scholar

Arendt, H. (1965/2015), Über die Revolution, München, Piper. Search in Google Scholar

Arns, I., I. Chubarov und S. Sasse (Hrsg.)(2017), Nikolaj Evreinov und andere: „Sturm auf den Winterpalast“, Zürich, Diaphanes.Search in Google Scholar

Baliga, S. und T. Sjöström (2004), Arms races and negotiations, Review of Economic Studies 72, S. 351–69.10.1111/0034-6527.00287Search in Google Scholar

Barberà, S. und M. O. Jackson (2019), A model of protests, revolution, and information, Manuskript, Stanford University, online verfügbar unter https://ssrn.com/abstract=2732864.Search in Google Scholar

Bjørnskov, C. und M. Rode (2019), Regime types and regime change: A new dataset on democracy, coups, and political institutions, Review of International Organizations 15, S. 531–51.10.1007/s11558-019-09345-1Search in Google Scholar

Bloch, P. C. (1986), The politico-economic behavior of authoritarian governments, Public Choice 51, S. 117–28.10.1007/BF00125993Search in Google Scholar

Blum, J. und K. Gründler (2020), Political stability and economic prosperity: Are coups bad for growth?, CESifoWorking Paper Nr. 8317.10.2139/ssrn.3618841Search in Google Scholar

Boese, V. A. und M. Eberhardt (2021), Democracy doesn’t always happen overnight, Political Economy of Globalisation Programme Research Paper 2021/01.Search in Google Scholar

Boix, C. (2003), Democracy and Redistribution, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511804960Search in Google Scholar

Boix, C. und M. Svolik (2013), The foundation of limited authoritarian government: Institutions, commitment, and power-sharing in dictatorships, Journal of Politics 75, S. 300–16.10.1017/S0022381613000029Search in Google Scholar

Bove, V. und R. Nisticò (2014), Coups d’état and defense spending: A counterfactual analysis, Public Choice 161, S. 321–44.10.1007/s11127-014-0202-2Search in Google Scholar

Brancati, D. (2016), Democracy Protest, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781316480960Search in Google Scholar

Breer, V. V., A. D. Rogatkin und D. A. Novikov (2017), Mob Control: Models of Threshold Collective Behavior, Berlin, Springer. 10.1007/978-3-319-51865-7Search in Google Scholar

Brennan, G. und L. E. Lomasky (1993), Democracy and Decision, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781139173544Search in Google Scholar

Brückner, M. und A. Ciccone (2011), Rain and the window of opportunity, Econometrica 79, S. 923–47. 10.3982/ECTA8183Search in Google Scholar

Bueno de Mesquita, E. (2010), Regime change and revolutionary entrepreneurs, American Political Science Review 104, S. 446–66.10.1017/S0003055410000274Search in Google Scholar

Cantoni, D., D. Y. Yang, N. Yuchtman und Y. J. Zhang (2019), Protests as strategic games: Experimental evidence from Hong Kong’s democracy movement, Quarterly Journal of Economics 134, S. 1021–77.10.1093/qje/qjz002Search in Google Scholar

Carlsson, H. und E. van Damme (1993), Global games and equilibrium selection, Econometrica 61, S. 989–1018.10.2307/2951491Search in Google Scholar

Casper, B. A. und S. A. Tyson (2014), Popular protest and elite coordination in a coup d’état, Journal of Politics 76, S. 548–64.10.1017/S0022381613001485Search in Google Scholar

Cervelati, M. und U. Sunde (2014), Civil conflict, democratization, and growth: Violent democratization as critical juncture, Scandinavian Journal of Economics 116, S. 482–505.10.1111/sjoe.12054Search in Google Scholar

Chacha, M. und J. Powell (2017), Economic interdependence and post-coup democratization, Democratization 24, S. 819–38. 10.1080/13510347.2016.1263617Search in Google Scholar

Chaney, E. (2013), Revolt on the Nile: Economic shocks, religion, and political power, Econometrica 81, S. 2033–53.10.3982/ECTA10233Search in Google Scholar

Coll, S. (2008), The origins and evolution of democracy: An exercise in history from a Constitutional Economics approach, Constitutional Political Economy 19, S. 313–55.10.1007/s10602-008-9041-9Search in Google Scholar

Collier, P. (2009), In Praise of the coup, The New Humanist, 4. März 2009, online verfügbar unter http://tinyurl.com/o6ccj8g.Search in Google Scholar

Congleton, R. D. (2010), Perfecting Parliament, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511779251Search in Google Scholar

Derpanopoulos, G., E. Frantz, B. Geddes und J. Wright (2016), Are coups good for democracy?, Research and Politics, Januar-März, S. 1–7. 10.1177/2053168016630837Search in Google Scholar

Dorsch, M. T. und P. Maarek (2018), Rent extraction, revolutionary threat, and coups in non-democracies, Journal of Comparative Economics 46, S. 1082–103.10.1016/j.jce.2018.04.002Search in Google Scholar

Economist (2020), Battle Royal, Heft vom 17.-23. Oktober, S. 17–19. 10.1002/citp.202001110Search in Google Scholar

Edmond, C. (2013), Information manipulation, coordination, and regime change, Review of Economic Studies 80, S. 1422–58.10.1093/restud/rdt020Search in Google Scholar

Fearon, J. (2011), Self-enforcing democracy, Quarterly Journal of Economics 126, S. 1661–708. 10.1093/qje/qjr038Search in Google Scholar

Fest, J. (1994), Staatsstreich, München, btb-Verlag.Search in Google Scholar

Fleck, R. K. und F. A. Hanssen (2006), The origins of democracy: A model with application to Ancient Greece, Journal of Law and Economics 49, S. 115–46.10.1086/501088Search in Google Scholar

Gassebner, M., J. Gutmann und S. Voigt (2016), When to expect a coup d’état? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants, Public Choice 169, S. 293–313.10.1007/s11127-016-0365-0Search in Google Scholar

Gehlbach, S., K. Sonin und M. W. Svolik (2016), Formal models of nondemocratic politics, Annual Review of Political Science 19, S. 565–84.10.1146/annurev-polisci-042114-014927Search in Google Scholar

Gerling, L. (2017), Urban protests, coups d’état and post-coup regime change, Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 23, S. 1–8. 10.1515/peps-2017-0033Search in Google Scholar

Gilli, M. und Y. Li (2015), Coups, revolutions and efficient policies in autocracies, European Journal of Political Economy 39, S. 109–24. 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.04.011Search in Google Scholar

Ginkel, J. und A. Smith (1999), So you say you want a revolution. A game theoretic explanation of revolution in repressive regimes, Journal of Conflict Resolution 42, S. 291–316.10.1177/0022002799043003002Search in Google Scholar

Glazer, A. (2008), Voting to anger and to please others, Public Choice 134, S. 247–54.10.1007/s11127-007-9221-6Search in Google Scholar

Granovetter, M. (1978), Threshold models of collective behavior, American Journal of Sociology 83, S. 1420–43.10.1086/226707Search in Google Scholar

Gundlach, E. und M. Paldam (2009), A farewell to critical junctures: Sorting out long-run causality of income and democracy, European Journal of Political Economy 25, S. 340–54. 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2009.02.007Search in Google Scholar

Gurr, T. R. (1968), A causal model of civil strife: A comparative analysis using new indices, American Political Science Review 62, S. 1104–24.10.2307/1953907Search in Google Scholar

?twb.19w?>Gurr, T. R. (1970), Why Men Rebel, Princeton, Princeton University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Haerpfer, C. W., P. Bernhagen, C. Welzel und R. F. Inglehart (2019), Democratization, 2. Aufl., Oxford, Oxford University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Hamlin, A. und C. Jennings (2011), Expressive political behavior: Foundations, scope and implications, British Journal of Political Science 41, S. 645–70. 10.1017/S0007123411000020Search in Google Scholar

Harsanyi, J. C. und R. Selten (1988), A General Theory of Equilibrium Selection, Cambridge, MIT Press.Search in Google Scholar

Hillman, A. L. (2010), Expressive behavior in economics and politics, European Journal of Political Economy 26, S. 403–18.10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2010.06.004Search in Google Scholar

Hiroi, T. und S. Omori (2013), Causes and triggers of coups d’état: An event history analysis, Politics & Policy 41, S. 39–64.10.1111/polp.12001Search in Google Scholar

Jackman, R. W. (1978), The predictability of coups d’etat: A model with African data, American Political Science Review 72, S. 1262–75.10.2307/1954538Search in Google Scholar

Johnson, T. H., R. O. Slater und P. McGowan (1984), Explaining African military coups d’etat, 1960–1982, American Political Science Review 78, S. 622–40.10.2307/1961833Search in Google Scholar

Johnson, J. und C. L. Thyne (2018), Squeaky wheels and troop loyalty: How domestic protests influence coups d’état, Journal of Conflict Resolution 62, S. 597–625.10.1177/0022002716654742Search in Google Scholar

Kotschy, R. und U. Sunde (2021), Income shocks, inequality, and democracy, Scandinavian Journal of Economics 123, S. 295–326. 10.1111/sjoe.12398Search in Google Scholar

Kuran, T. (1989), Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution, Public Choice 61, S. 41–74.10.1007/BF00116762Search in Google Scholar

Kuran, T. (1991), The East European Revolution of 1989: Is it surprising that we were surprised?, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 81, S. 121–25.Search in Google Scholar

Kuran, T. (1997), Private Truths, Public Lies, Cambridge, Harvard University Press.10.2307/j.ctvt1sgqtSearch in Google Scholar

Kurrild-Klitgaard, P. (1997), Rational Choice, Collective Action and the Paradox of Rebellion, Kopenhagen, Copenhagen Political Studies Press. Search in Google Scholar

Leon, G. (2014), Loyalty for wale? Military spending and coups d’état, Public Choice 159, S. 363–83.10.1007/s11127-013-0124-4Search in Google Scholar

Lichbach, M. I. (1995), The Rebel’s Dilemma, Ann Arbor, The University of Michigan Press.10.3998/mpub.13970Search in Google Scholar

Lipset, S. M. (1959), Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy, American Political Science Review 53, S. 69–105. 10.2307/1951731Search in Google Scholar

Lohmann, S. (1994), The dynamics of informational cascades: The Monday demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1989–91, World Politics 47, S. 42–101.10.2307/2950679Search in Google Scholar

Machiavelli, N. (1513/2017), Der Fürst, Berlin, Edition Holbach.Search in Google Scholar

Marx, K. (1867/1984), Das Kapital, Bd. 1, Berlin, Dietz Verlag.Search in Google Scholar

Marshall, M. G. und T. R. Gurr (2020), Polity 5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018, Datenbank der George Mason University, online verfügbar unter http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p5manualv2018.pdf.Search in Google Scholar

Marwell, G. und P. Oliver (1993), The Critical Mass in Collective Action, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511663765Search in Google Scholar

McCormick, G. H. und G. Owen (1996), Revolutionary origins and conditional mobilization, European Journal of Political Economy 12, S. 377–402.10.1016/S0176-2680(96)00007-9Search in Google Scholar

Morris, S. und H. S. Shin (2010), Global games: Theory and applications, in M. Dewatripont, L. P. Hansen und S. Turnovsky (Hrsg.), Advances in Economics and Econometrics, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, S. 56–113.10.1017/CBO9780511610240.004Search in Google Scholar

Muller, E. N., K.-D. Opp (1986), Rational choice and collective action, American Political Science Review 80, S. 471–88.10.2307/1958269Search in Google Scholar

Muller, E. N. und E. Weede (1994), Theories of rebellion. Relative deprivation and power contention, Rationality and Society 6, S. 40–57.10.1177/1043463194006001004Search in Google Scholar

Nathan, A. J. und P. Link (2001), Die Tianmen-Akte, München, Propyläen.Search in Google Scholar

North, D. C. und B. R. Weingast (1989), Constitutions and commitment: The evolution of institutions governing public choice in seventeenth-century England, Journal of Economic History 49, S. 803–32. 10.1017/S0022050700009451Search in Google Scholar

Ober, J. (2015), The Rise and Fall of Classical Greece, Princeton, Princeton University Press.10.1515/9781400865550Search in Google Scholar

Olson, M. (1965), The Logic of Collective Action, Cambridge, Harvard University Press.10.4159/9780674041660Search in Google Scholar

Opp, K.-D. (1986), Soft incentives and collective action: Participation in anti-nuclear movement, British Journal of Political Science 16, S. 87–112.10.1017/S0007123400003811Search in Google Scholar

Opp, K.-D. (2009), Theories of Political Protest and Social Movements, London, Routledge.10.4324/9780203883846Search in Google Scholar

Passarelli, F. und G. Tabellini (2017), Emotions and political unrest, Journal of Political Economy 125, S. 903–46.10.1086/691700Search in Google Scholar

Powell, J. (2012), Determinants of the attempting and outcome of coups d’état, Journal of Conflict Resolution 56, S. 1017–40.10.1177/0022002712445732Search in Google Scholar

Powell, J. und C. L. Thyne (2011), Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset, Journal of Peace Research 48, S. 249–59.10.1177/0022343310397436Search in Google Scholar

Przeworski, A. (1991), Democracy and the Market, New York, Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781139172493Search in Google Scholar

Przeworski, A. (2005), Democracy as an equilibrium, Public Choice 123, S. 253–73.10.1007/s11127-005-7163-4Search in Google Scholar

Schelling, T. C. (1978), Micromotives and Macrobehavior, New York, W. W. Norton & Company. Search in Google Scholar

Schuessler, A. A. (2000), Expressive voting, Rationality and Society 12, S. 87–119.10.1177/104346300012001005Search in Google Scholar

Smith, H. J. und T. F. Pettigrew (2015), Advances in relative deprivation theory and research, Social Justice Research 27, S. 1–6. 10.1007/s11211-014-0231-5Search in Google Scholar

Sutter, D. (2000), A game-theoretic model of the coup d’état, Economics & Politics 12, S. 205–23.10.1111/1468-0343.00075Search in Google Scholar

Svolik, M. W. (2009), Power sharing and leadership dynamics in authoritarian regimes, American Journal of Political Science 53, S. 477–94.10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00382.xSearch in Google Scholar

Svolik, M. (2012), The Politics of Authoritarian Rule, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781139176040Search in Google Scholar

Svolik, M. (2013), The moral hazard in authoritarian repression and military intervention in politics, Journal of Conflict Resolution 57, S. 765–94.10.1177/0022002712449327Search in Google Scholar

Teorell, J. (2010), Determinants of Democratization, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511762727Search in Google Scholar

Thyne, C. L. (2010), Supporter of stability or agent of agitation? The effect of US foreign policy on coups in Latin America, 1960–99, Journal of Peace Research 47, S. 449–61.10.1177/0022343310368350Search in Google Scholar

Thyne, C. L. und J. M. Powell (2016), Coup d’état or coup d’autocracy? How coups impact democratization, 1950–2008, Foreign Policy Analysis 12, S. 192–213.Search in Google Scholar

Tullock, G. (1971), The paradox of revolution, Public Choice 11, S. 89–99.10.1007/BF01726214Search in Google Scholar

Tullock, G. (1974), The Social Dilemma, Blacksburg, University Publications.Search in Google Scholar

Weingast, Barry (1997), The political foundations of democracy and the rule of law, American Political Science Review 91, S. 245–63. 10.2307/2952354Search in Google Scholar

Weingast, B. (2005), The constitutional dilemma of economic liberty, Journal of Economic Perspectives 19, S. 89–108.10.1257/089533005774357815Search in Google Scholar

Wielepp, C. (1990), Montagsabends in Leipzig, in T. Blanke und R. Erd (Hrsg.), DDR. Ein Staat vergeht, Frankfurt, Fischer. Search in Google Scholar

Wintrobe, R. (1990), The tinpot and the totalitarian, American Political Science Review 84, S. 849–72.10.2307/1962769Search in Google Scholar

Wintrobe, R. (1998), The Political Economy of Dictatorship, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781139174916Search in Google Scholar

Wilson, K. A. (2019), User’s Manual. Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive, online verfügbar unter www.cntsdata.com.Search in Google Scholar

Online erschienen: 2021-12-07
Erschienen im Druck: 2021-12-31

© 2021 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Downloaded on 22.9.2025 from https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/pwp-2021-0036/html?lang=en
Scroll to top button