Who Are Leaners? How True Independents Differ from the Weakest Partisans and Why It Matters
-
Samara Klar
,
Yanna Krupnikov
Abstract
Independents who lean toward a party constitute a plurality of Americans. Despite their reluctance to identify as partisans, scholars find that “leaners” look much like partisans with respect to their voting behavior, civic engagement, and policy preferences. Yet, existing literature does not consider the possibility that different factors lead Democrats and Republicans to opt for an independent label. We consider heterogeneity in what leads people to report that they are “leaners” and we identify important partisan differences. By introducing a novel survey measure administered on a large adult sample, we identify both the motivation for, and consequence of, identifying as a leaner. Our results reveal that modern-day Republican leaners are largely motivated by a dissatisfaction with their own party. They are ideologically more moderate and are subsequently less willing to support their party’s candidate. Democratic leaners, on the other hand, appear satisfied with their party’s ideology and candidates, but nevertheless value an independent label. Our work suggests that partisan identification is both expressive and politically contextual. Our study provides an important step in identifying distinct motivations and electoral consequences within this large and growing segment of Americans.
| A1. Demographics | |
|---|---|
| % Democrat | 42.74 |
| % Independent leaning to democrat | 7.38 |
| % Independent | 7.81 |
| % Independent leaning to republican | 7.32 |
| % Republican | 34.74 |
| % Female | 50.27 |
| % White | 73.11 |
| % College degree | 47.39 |
| Mean age | 44.79 |
A2. Question Wording
Generally speaking, are you a Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent?
Strong Democrat
Weak Democrat
Independent leaning to Democrat
Independent
Independent leaning to Republican
Weak Republican
Strong Republican.
What is your age? [open-ended]
What is your gender?
Male
Female
Other.
With what race do you primarily identify with?
White
Black or African American
Hispanic or Latino
Asian
Middle Eastern
Native American
Other.
What is the highest level of education that you have completed?
High School
Some College
Completed College
Graduate School.
Thinking again about your political identity, which best describes you?
Strongest Democrat
Democrat
Weakest Democrat
Independent
Weakest Republican
Republican
Strongest Republican.
Would you say you approve or disapprove of the job that President Trump is doing?
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Neither approve nor disapprove
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove.
In the 2020 Presidential Election, do you think you’ll vote for President Trump, for the Democratic nominee, for someone else, or not at all?
Trump
Democratic Nominee
Someone Else
Not at all.
References
Coppock, A., and O. A. McLellan. 2019. “Validating the Demographic, Political, Psychological, and Experimental Results Obtained from a New Source of Online Survey Respondents.” Research and Politics 6: 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168018822174.Search in Google Scholar
Druckman, J. N., S. Klar, Y. Krupnikov, M. Levendusky, and J. B. Ryan. 2022. “(Mis-)Estimating Affective Polarization.” Journal of Politics 84 (2), https://doi.org/10.1086/715603.Search in Google Scholar
Henderson, M. 2015. “Finding the Way Home: The Dynamics of Partisan Support in Presidential Campaigns.” Political Behavior 37 (4): 889–910, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-014-9296-y.Search in Google Scholar
Huddy, L., L. Mason, and L. Aaroe. 2015. “Expressive Partisanship: Campaign Involvement, Political Emotion, and Partisan Identity.” American Political Science Review 109 (1): 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055414000604.Search in Google Scholar
Keith, B. E., D. B. Magleby, E. Orr, M. C. Westlye, and R. E. Wolfinger. 1986. “The Partisan Affinities of Independent Leaners.” British Journal of Political Science 16 (2): 155–85, https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123400003872.Search in Google Scholar
Keith, B. E., E. A. David MaglebyOrr, M. C. Westlye, and C. J. Nelson. 1992. The Myth of the Independent Voter. Berkeley: University of California Press.Search in Google Scholar
Klar, S. 2014. “Identity Importance and Political Engagement among American Independents.” Political Psychology 35 (4): 577–91, https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12036.Search in Google Scholar
Klar, S., and Y. Krupnikov. 2016. Independent Politics: How American Disdain for Parties Leads to Political Inaction. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781316471050Search in Google Scholar
Magleby, D., and C. Nelson. 2012. “Independent Leaners as Policy Partisans: An Examination of Party Identification and Policy Views.” The Forum 10 (3), https://doi.org/10.1515/1540-8884.1522.Search in Google Scholar
Norrander, B. 1997. “The Independence Gap and the Gender Gap.” Public Opinion Quarterly 61 (3): 464–76, https://doi.org/10.1086/297809.Search in Google Scholar
Petrocik, J. 2009. “Measuring Party Support: Leaners are Not Independents.” Electoral Studies 28 (4): 562–72, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2009.05.022.Search in Google Scholar
Pew Research Center. 2019. Political Independents: Who They Are, What They Think. https://www.people-press.org/2019/03/14/political-independents-who-they-are-what-they-think/ (accessed March 14, 2019).Search in Google Scholar
Piston, S., Y. Krupnikov, J. B. Ryan, and K. Milita. 2018. “Clear as Black and White: The Effects of Ambiguous Rhetoric Depend on Candidate Race.” Journal of Politics 80: 662–74.10.1086/696619Search in Google Scholar
© 2022 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Introduction
- Introduction: Volume 20 Issue 1: Public Opinion in America
- Articles
- Explanations for Inequality and Partisan Polarization in the U.S., 1980–2020
- Collective Narcissism and Perceptions of the (Il)legitimacy of the 2020 US Election
- Two Sides of the Same Coin? Race, Racial Resentment, and Public Opinion Toward Financial Compensation of College Athletes
- Public Perceptions of the Supreme Court: How Policy Disagreement Affects Legitimacy
- Do Elite Appeals to Negative Partisanship Stimulate Citizen Engagement?
- Who Are Leaners? How True Independents Differ from the Weakest Partisans and Why It Matters
- Nationalism in the ‘Nation of Immigrants’: Race, Ethnicity, and National Attachment
- The Social Foundations of Public Support for Political Compromise
- Books Reviews
- Meghan Condon, and Amber Wichowsky: The Economic Other: Inequality in the American Political Imagination
- Daniel W. Drezner: The Toddler-in-Chief: What Donald J. Trump Teaches Us About the Modern Presidency
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Introduction
- Introduction: Volume 20 Issue 1: Public Opinion in America
- Articles
- Explanations for Inequality and Partisan Polarization in the U.S., 1980–2020
- Collective Narcissism and Perceptions of the (Il)legitimacy of the 2020 US Election
- Two Sides of the Same Coin? Race, Racial Resentment, and Public Opinion Toward Financial Compensation of College Athletes
- Public Perceptions of the Supreme Court: How Policy Disagreement Affects Legitimacy
- Do Elite Appeals to Negative Partisanship Stimulate Citizen Engagement?
- Who Are Leaners? How True Independents Differ from the Weakest Partisans and Why It Matters
- Nationalism in the ‘Nation of Immigrants’: Race, Ethnicity, and National Attachment
- The Social Foundations of Public Support for Political Compromise
- Books Reviews
- Meghan Condon, and Amber Wichowsky: The Economic Other: Inequality in the American Political Imagination
- Daniel W. Drezner: The Toddler-in-Chief: What Donald J. Trump Teaches Us About the Modern Presidency
