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Misreporting: Social Scientists, Political Commentators, and the Politics of Presidential Selection

  • Elizabeth M. Sawyer

    Elizabeth M. Sawyer, Elizabeth is focusing on American politics and has published: Elizabeth Sawyer and Byron Shafer. “Institutional Dynamics and Nominating Processes: The Latest Twists on a Familiar Story, or the Emergence of a Brave New World?” Presidential Studies Quarterly, September 2018.

    , Byron E. Shafer

    Byron E. Shafer, research and teaching in American politics, broadly construed. His recent publications are: The Long War Over Party Structure: Policy Responsiveness and Democratic Representation in American Politics, with Regina L. Wagner (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019); and, “The Trump Presidency and the Structure of Modern American Politics,” with Regina L.Wagner, Perspectives on Politics 17(June 2019).

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    und Regina L. Wagner

    Regina L. Wagner, research interests include political representation, gender and politics, legislative politics, state and local politics, as well as political parties. She specifically focuses on political representation of groups and their interests, democratic intermediaries, and the effect of structural reforms on representational processes and outcomes. Her recent publications include: Invisible Forces: How Contextual Receptiveness to Women Shapes Women’s Representation in the U.S. Congress. Journal of Women, Politics & Policy 40(October 2019); Policy Responsiveness and Democratic Representation in American Politics, with Byron E. Shafer (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019); and, “The Trump Presidency and the Structure of Modern American Politics,” with Byron E. Shafer, Perspectives on Politics 17(June 2019) .

Veröffentlicht/Copyright: 19. Februar 2021
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Abstract

A familiar framework for interpreting the politics of presidential nomination, built on an accumulating body of social science research plus the extended observations of experienced commentators, received remarkably little use in the day-to-day reportage of the Democratic and Republican contests of 2016 and 2020 as they unfolded. So this paper begins by sketching out the factional structure of the modern Democratic and Republican parties, along with the bandwagon dynamic that recurrently resolves their factional disputes. It then applies these foundational interpretive factors to the two most recent pairs of nominating contests. What results are four orthodox and recurrent stories that stand in sharp contrast to media narratives that were all too frequently a mix of incomplete basic understandings plus wildly overemphasized idiosyncrasies.


Corresponding author: Byron E. Shafer, Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science, University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA, E-mail:

About the authors

Elizabeth M. Sawyer

Elizabeth M. Sawyer, Elizabeth is focusing on American politics and has published: Elizabeth Sawyer and Byron Shafer. “Institutional Dynamics and Nominating Processes: The Latest Twists on a Familiar Story, or the Emergence of a Brave New World?” Presidential Studies Quarterly, September 2018.

Byron E. Shafer

Byron E. Shafer, research and teaching in American politics, broadly construed. His recent publications are: The Long War Over Party Structure: Policy Responsiveness and Democratic Representation in American Politics, with Regina L. Wagner (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019); and, “The Trump Presidency and the Structure of Modern American Politics,” with Regina L.Wagner, Perspectives on Politics 17(June 2019).

Regina L. Wagner

Regina L. Wagner, research interests include political representation, gender and politics, legislative politics, state and local politics, as well as political parties. She specifically focuses on political representation of groups and their interests, democratic intermediaries, and the effect of structural reforms on representational processes and outcomes. Her recent publications include: Invisible Forces: How Contextual Receptiveness to Women Shapes Women’s Representation in the U.S. Congress. Journal of Women, Politics & Policy 40(October 2019); Policy Responsiveness and Democratic Representation in American Politics, with Byron E. Shafer (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019); and, “The Trump Presidency and the Structure of Modern American Politics,” with Byron E. Shafer, Perspectives on Politics 17(June 2019) .

Published Online: 2021-02-19

© 2021 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Heruntergeladen am 11.1.2026 von https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/for-2020-2101/pdf
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