Why Trump Became a ‘Confederate’ President
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Angie Maxwell
Abstract
This article explores the causes for and the contemporary ramifications of the realignment of the American South with the Republican Party. Using the American National Election Surveys (ANES) Time Series Cumulative Data File (1948–2016), the 2016 and 2020 Blair Center Polls, and the election tracking data compiled by Richard Berg-Andersson and Tony Roza at www.thegreenpapers.com, the author first explores the role that racial animus, anti-feminism, and religious fundamentalism played in white southern voters’ emergence as the Republican Party base. Second, the author considers the structural advantages that this prominence in the GOP gives southern whites in the primary nomination process and to what degree these advantages benefitted Donald Trump in 2016. Finally, the author explores the influence of Racial Resentment, Modern Sexism, and Christian Fundamentalism on the 2016 Republican primary elections and the 2016 and 2020 General Elections.
| American National Election Studies Cumulative File | ||
|---|---|---|
| Variable | Question | Coding of Responses |
| Biblical Literalist | 1964–1990: Here are four statements about the Bible and I’d like you to tell me which is closest to your own view. 1. The Bible is God’s word and all it says is true. 2. The Bible was written by men inspired by God but it contains some human errors. 3. The Bible is a good book because it was written by wise men, but God had nothing to do with it. 4. The Bible was written by men who lived so long ago that it is worth very little today. 1990-2016: Which of these statements comes closest to describing your feelings about the Bible? 1. The Bible is the actual Word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word. 2. The Bible is the Word of God but not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word 3. The Bible is a book written by men and is not the Word of God 9. Other; DK 1996, 1998, 2000 PERSONAL, 2004 [question preceded by] please look at page [page] of the booklet. You can just give me the number of your choice. (STATEMENTS SHOWN TO R) | 1=The Bible is God’s word and all it says is true/The Bible is the actual Word of God and is to be taken literally; 0=all other answers (other and don’t know answers were discarded) |
| Democratic vote in presidential election (Recode of VCF0704) | Who did you vote for in the election for President? | 1=Voted for Democratic Presidential Candidate. 0=Voted for Republican or Third Party Presidential Candidate |
| ERA Approval (recode of VCF0833) Available 1976, 1978, 1980 in cumulative file | 1976, 1978, 1980: Do you approve or disapprove of the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution? 1976: [question preceded by] an effort is being made to pass an amendment to the U.S. Constitution which would guarantee equal rights for all citizens regardless of sex. 1978, 1980: [question followed by] sometimes called the ERA amendment? | 0=Disapprove; 1=Approve |
| Party identification (Recode of VCF0301) | Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what? | 1=Strong Democrat; 2=Weak Democrat; 3=Independent, leaning Democrat; 4=Independent; 5=Independent, leaning Republican; 6=Weak Republican; 7=Strong Republican. |
Racial Resentment towards African Americans
| (Q1) Irish, Italians, Jewish and many other minorities overcame prejudice and worked their way up. Blacks should do the same without any special favors; (Q2) Generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for blacks to work their way out of the lower class; (Q3) Over the past few years, blacks have gotten less than they deserve; (Q4) It’s really a matter of some people not trying hard enough; if blacks would only try harder they could be just as well off as whites. 1986,1990,1994: [questions preceded by] in past studies we have asked people why they think white people seem to get more of the good things in life in America – such as better jobs and more money – than black people do. These are some of the reasons given by both blacks and whites. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each reason as to why white people seem to get more of the good things in life. 1988, 1992 [questions preceded by] now looking again at [respondent booklet] for your choices, here are several more statements. 2004 [questions preceded by] now I’m going to read several more statements. After each one, I would like you to tell me how strongly you agree or disagree. The first statement is: | Q1 and Q4: 1=Disagree strongly; 2=Disagree somewhat; 3=Neither agree nor disagree; 4=Agree somewhat; 5=Agree strongly Q2 and Q3: 1=Agree strongly; 2=Agree somewhat; 3=Neither agree nor disagree; 4=Disagree somewhat; 5=Disagree strongly. Answers were summed to create a single scale with scores that range from 4 to 20. The midpoint of the scale is 12. The scale has an alpha of 0.81 in the cumulative file. |
| South (Recode of VCF0113) | State of Residence, Political South, Region | 1=Alabama; Arkansas; Florida; Georgia; Louisiana; Mississippi; North Carolina; South Carolina; Tennessee; Texas; Virginia 0=other states. |
| White (Recode of VCF0106) | What racial or ethnic group or groups best describes you? | 1=White; 0=all other races/ethnicities |
| Woman (Recode of VCF0104) | Are you Male or Female? | 1=Woman; 0=Man |
| 2016 Blair Center Poll | ||
|---|---|---|
| Variable | Question | Coding of Responses |
| Abortion | Which one of the opinions below best agrees with your view about abortion? | 1=By law, a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice. 2=The law should permit abortion for reasons other than rape, incest, or danger to the woman’s life, but only after the need for the abortion has been clearly established. 3=The law should permit abortion only in case of rape, incest, or when the woman’s life is in danger. 4=By law, abortion should never be permitted. |
| Age | Age in years | 18–91 |
| Biblical literalism | Which of these statements comes closest to describing your feelings about the Bible? | 1=The Bible is a book written by men and is not the Word of God; 2=The Bible is the inspired Word of God, but not everything in it should be taken literally; 3=The Bible is the actual Word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word. |
| Christian fundamentalist identity | In general, how strongly do you think of yourself as any of the following? Christian fundamentalist | 1=Not at all; 2=Not strongly; 3=Neither/neutral; 4=strongly; 5=Very strongly |
| Christian fundamentalism scale | Experimental scale including the following variables: Christian fundamentalist identity; Biblical literalism; Evolution; Abortion; Christian to be American; and Religious life, importance. | Answers were summed to create a single scale with scores that range from 6 to 24. The midpoint of the scale is 15. The alpha of the scale is 0.85. |
| Christian to be American | When you think of what it means to be fully “American” in the eyes of most Americans, do you think it is very important, somewhat important, or not important to be Christian? | 1=Not at all important; 2=Somewhat important; 3=Important; 4=Very important |
| Clinton general election vote among general election voters | In the 2016 general election, did you vote for: | 1=Hillary Clinton; 0=Donald Trump; Jill Stein; Gary Johnson; other |
| Education | Highest level of education attained | 1=Less than high school; 2=High school; 3=Some College; 4=Bachelor’s degree or higher. |
| Ethnocentrism (Feeling Thermometer measure) | Feeling Thermometer Evaluations of: Whites; African Americans; Latinos | Respondent’s Feeling Thermometer evaluation of whites minus the average of their feeling Thermometer evaluation of African Americans and their Feeling Thermometer evaluation of Latinos |
| Evolution | Which of these comes closest to your views? Humans and other living things have … | 1=Evolved over time due to natural processes; 2=Evolved over time, but don’t know how; 3=Evolved over time guided by a supreme being; 4=Created by a supreme being in their present form since the beginning of time |
| GOP primary voter, major candidates | In your state’s 2016 presidential primary/caucus, did you vote for: | 1=Jeb Bush; Ben Carson; Ted Cruz; John Kasich; Marco Rubio; Donald Trump; 0=Hillary Clinton; Bernie Sanders; Other |
| Ideology | Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Liberal, Conservative, or Moderate? | 1=Strong liberal; 2=liberal; 3=Moderate-leaning liberal; 4=Moderate; 5=Moderate-leaning conservative; 6=Conservative; 7=Strong conservative |
| Income (household) | Total household income per year | 1=$5,000–$7,499; 2= $7,500–$9,999; 3=$10,000–$12,499; 4=$12,500–$14,999; 5=$15,000–$19,999; 6=$20,000–$24,999; 7=$25,000–$29,999; 8=$30,000–$34,999; 9=$35,000–$39,999; 10=$40,000–$49,999; 11=$50,000–$59,999; 12=$60,000–$74,999; 13=$75,000–$84,999; 14=$85,000–$99,999; 15=$100,000–$124,999; 16=$125,000–$149,999; 17=$150,000–$174,999; 18=$175,000 or more. |
| Married | Marital status | 1=Married. 0=Widowed; Divorced; Separated; Never married; or Living with partner. |
Modern Sexism
| To what extent to do you agree or disagree with the following statements?: (Q1) Many women are actually seeking special favors, such as hiring policies that favor them over men under the guise of asking for “equality;” (Q2) Most women interpret innocent remarks or acts as being sexist; (Q3) Feminists are seeking for women to have more power than men; (Q4) When women lose to men in a fair competition, they typically complain about being discriminated against; (Q5) Discrimination against women is no longer a problem in the United States. | 1=Strongly disagree; 2=Disagree; 3=Neither; 4=Agree; 5=Strongly agree Answers were summed to create a single scale with scores that range from 5 to 25. The midpoint of the scale is 15. The scale has an alpha of 0.88. |
| Party identification | Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, Republican, or Independent? | 1=Strong Democrat; 2=Democrat; 3=Independent-leaning Democrat; 4=Independent; 5=Independent- leaning Republican; 6=Republican; 7=Strong Republican |
Racial Resentment towards African Americans
| To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? (Q1) Irish, Italians, Jewish and many other minorities overcame prejudice and worked their way up, blacks should do the same without any special favors; (Q2) Generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for blacks to work their way out of the lower class; (Q3) Over the past few years, blacks have gotten less than they deserve; (Q4) It’s really a matter of some people not trying hard enough; if blacks would only try harder they could be just as well off as whites. | Q1 and Q4: 1=Strongly disagree; 2= Disagree; 3=Neither; 4=Agree; 5=Strongly agree Q2 and Q3: 1=Strongly agree; 2=Agree; 3=Neither; 4=Disagree; 5=Strongly disagree. Answers were summed to create a single scale with scores that range from 4 to 20. The midpoint of the scale is 12. The scale has an alpha of 0.84. |
| Religious life, importance | How important is each of the following to you personally? Living a Religious Life. | 1=Not at all important; 2=Somewhat important; 3=Important; 4=Very important |
| South | Eleven states of the former Confederacy | 1=Alabama; Arkansas; Florida; Georgia; Louisiana; Mississippi; North Carolina; South Carolina; Tennessee; Texas; Virginia 0=other states. |
| Trump primary vote among GOP primary voters | In your state’s 2016 presidential primary/caucus, did you vote for: | 1=Trump; 0= Jeb Bush; Ben Carson; Ted Cruz; John Kasich; Marco Rubio |
| Trump general election vote among general election voters | In the 2016 general election, did you vote for: | 1=Donald Trump; 0=Hillary Clinton; Jill Stein; Gary Johnson; Other |
| Unemployed/Looking for work | Current employment status | 0=Working as a paid employee; Working-self-employed; Not working-retired; Not working-disabled; Not working-other 1=Not working-on temporary layoff; Not working-looking for work. |
| Woman | Respondent’s sex | 1=Woman; 0=Man |
| Abortion | What is your view on abortion? | 1=By law, a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice. 2=The law should permit abortion for reasons other than rape, incest, or danger to the woman’s life, but only after the need for the abortion has been clearly established. 3=The law should permit abortion only in case of rape, incest, or when the woman’s life is in danger. 4=By law, abortion should never be permitted. |
| Age | Age in years | 18–94 |
| Biblical literalism | How do you feel about the Bible? | 1=The Bible is a book written by men and is not the Word of God. 2=The Bible is the inspired Word of God, but not everything in it should be taken literally 3=The Bible is the actual Word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word. |
| Biden general election vote among general election voters | In the 2020 general election, did you vote for: | 1=Joe Biden; 0=Donald Trump; Jo Jorgensen; Howie Hawkins; Other |
| Christian fundamentalist identity | In general, how strongly do you think of yourself as any of the following? Christian fundamentalist | 1=Not at all; 2=Slightly; 3=Strongly; 4=Very strongly |
| Christian Fundamentalism scale | Experimental scale including the following variables: Christian fundamentalist identity; biblical literalism; Evolution; Abortion; Christian to be American; and Religious life, importance. | Answers were summed to create a single scale with scores that range from 6 to 23. The midpoint of the scale is 14.5. The alpha of the scale is 0.82. |
| Christian to be American | When you think of what it means to be fully “American” in the eyes of most Americans, do you think it is very important, somewhat important, or not important to be Christian? | 1=Not at all important; 2=Somewhat important; 3=Important; 4=Very important |
| Education | Highest level of education attained | 1=Less than high school; 2=High school; 3=Some college; 4=two-year degree; 5=four-year degree; 6-post-graduate. |
| Evolution | Which of these comes closest to your views? Humans and other living things have … | 1=Evolved over time due to natural processes; 2=Evolved over time, but don’t know how; 3=Evolved over time guided by a supreme being; 4=Created by a supreme being in their present form since the beginning of time |
| Ideology | Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Liberal, Conservative, or Moderate? | 1=Very liberal; 2=Liberal; 3=Moderate; 4=Conservative; 5=Very conservative |
| Income (household) | Total household income Per year | 1=Less than $10,000; 2=$10,000–$19,999; 3=$20,000–$29,999; 4=$30,000–$39,999; 5=$40.000–$49,999; 6=$50,000–$59,999; 7=$60,000–$69,999; 8=$70,000–$79,999; 9=$80,000–$99,999; 10=$100,000–$119,999; 11=$120,000–$149,999; 12=$150,000–$199,999; 13=$200,000–$249,999; 14=$250.000–$349,000; 15=$350,000–$499,999; 16=$500,000 or more |
| Married | Marital status | 1=Married. 0=Widowed; Divorced; Separated; Never married; or Domestic/Civil partnership |
Modern Sexism
| To what extent to do you agree or disagree with the following statements?: (Q1) Many women are actually seeking special favors, such as hiring policies that favor them over men under the guise of asking for “equality;” (Q2) Most women interpret innocent remarks or acts as being sexist; (Q3) Feminists are seeking for women to have more power than men; (Q4) When women lose to men in a fair competition, they typically complain about being discriminated against; (Q5) Discrimination against women is no longer a problem in the United States. | 1=Strongly disagree; 2=Disagree; 3=Neither; 4=Agree; 5=Strongly agree Answers were summed to create a single scale with scores that range from 5 to 25. The midpoint of the scale is 15. The scale has an alpha of 0.87. |
| Party identification | Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, Republican, or Independent? | 1=Strong Democrat; 2=Not very strong Democrat; 3=Lean Democrat; 4=Independent; 5=Lean Republican; 6=Not very strong Republican; 7=Strong Republican |
Racial Resentment towards African Americans
| To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? (Q1) Irish, Italians, Jewish and many other minorities overcame prejudice and worked their way up, blacks should do the same without any special favors; (Q2) Generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for blacks to work their way out of the lower class; (Q3) Over the past few years, blacks have gotten less than they deserve; (Q4) It’s really a matter of some people not trying hard enough; if blacks would only try harder they could be just as well off as whites. | Q1 and Q4: 1=Strongly disagree; 2= Disagree; 3=Neither; 4=Agree; 5=Strongly agree Q2 and Q3: 1=Strongly agree; 2=Agree; 3=Neither; 4=Disagree; 5=Strongly disagree. Answers were summed to create a single scale with scores that range from 4 to 20. The midpoint of the scale is 12. The scale has an alpha of 0.88. |
| Religious life, importance | Importance of religion (Pew) | 1=Not at all important; 2=Not too important; 3=Somewhat important; 4=Very important |
| South | Eleven states of the former Confederacy | 1=Alabama; Arkansas; Florida; Georgia; Louisiana; Mississippi; North Carolina; South Carolina; Tennessee; Texas; Virginia 0=other states. |
| Trump general election vote among general election voters | In the 2020 general election, did you vote for: | 1=Donald Trump; 0=Joe Biden; Jo Jorgensen; Howie Hawkins; Other |
| Unemployed | Current employment status | 0=Full-time; Part-time; Retired; Permanently Disabled, Homemaker, Student; Other; 1=Temporarily laid off; Unemployed |
| Female | Respondent’s sex | 1=Woman; 0=Man |
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Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Articles
- The 2020 Election
- Misreporting: Social Scientists, Political Commentators, and the Politics of Presidential Selection
- Spending Fast and Furious: Political Advertising in 2020
- Why Trump Became a ‘Confederate’ President
- Háblame de tí: Latino mobilization, group dynamics and issue prioritization in the 2020 Election
- Marching to the Ballot Box: Sex and Voting in the 2020 Election Cycle
- Religion and the 2020 Presidential Election: The Enduring Divide
- The Rural-Urban Continuum of Polarization: Understanding the Geography of the 2018 Midterms
- You’re Fired! Donald Trump and the 2020 Congressional Elections
- Book Review
- Boris Heersink and Jeffrey A. Jenkins: Republican Party Politics and The American South 1865–1968
- Review
- Learning From Loss: The Democrats 2016–2020
Articles in the same Issue
- Frontmatter
- Articles
- The 2020 Election
- Misreporting: Social Scientists, Political Commentators, and the Politics of Presidential Selection
- Spending Fast and Furious: Political Advertising in 2020
- Why Trump Became a ‘Confederate’ President
- Háblame de tí: Latino mobilization, group dynamics and issue prioritization in the 2020 Election
- Marching to the Ballot Box: Sex and Voting in the 2020 Election Cycle
- Religion and the 2020 Presidential Election: The Enduring Divide
- The Rural-Urban Continuum of Polarization: Understanding the Geography of the 2018 Midterms
- You’re Fired! Donald Trump and the 2020 Congressional Elections
- Book Review
- Boris Heersink and Jeffrey A. Jenkins: Republican Party Politics and The American South 1865–1968
- Review
- Learning From Loss: The Democrats 2016–2020
