Startseite Consumers and the Sources of US Trade Openness
Artikel
Lizenziert
Nicht lizenziert Erfordert eine Authentifizierung

Consumers and the Sources of US Trade Openness

  • Timm Betz EMAIL logo
Veröffentlicht/Copyright: 5. März 2020
Veröffentlichen auch Sie bei De Gruyter Brill
The Forum
Aus der Zeitschrift The Forum Band 17 Heft 4

Abstract

This essay reviews US trade flows and trade policy from the perspective of consumers. Trade policy shapes the prices and the availability of products sold in the US to, ultimately, voters. Understanding the role of consumers in explaining US trade policy may therefore offer lessons for our understanding of politics beyond trade. International trade has created substantial gains for consumers, both by lowering domestic prices and by increasing access to a wider variety of products. Yet, US trade policy does not appear to reflect consumer interests: tariffs are higher for products with higher consumption shares. This finding is inconsistent with the narrative that open trade is a response to consumer interests, and it is not explained by standard collective action arguments either. Instead, the political influence of pro-trade firms emerges as a driving force of US trade openness. The essay discusses the implications for our understanding of the political and institutional sources of trade openness. If special interest politics explains the opening of trade, it reverses the traditional interpretation of trade openness as an indication of the absence of special interest politics.

References

Amiti, Mary, Stephen J. Redding, and David Weinstein. 2018. The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare. Cambridge, MA: NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25672. URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w25672.Suche in Google Scholar

Auer, Raphael, Claudio Borio, and Andrew Filardo. 2017. The Globalisation of Inflation: the Growing Importance of Global Value Chains. Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 602.Suche in Google Scholar

Autor, David H., David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson. 2016. “The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade.” Annual Review of Economics 8 (1): 205–240.10.3386/w21906Suche in Google Scholar

Baccini, Leonardo, Pablo M. Pinto, and Stephen Weymouth. 2017. “The Distributional Consequences of Preferential Trade Liberalization: Firm-Level Evidence.” International Organization 71 (2): 373–395.10.1017/S002081831700011XSuche in Google Scholar

Bailey, Michael, Judith Goldstein, and Barry R. Weingast. 1997. “The Institutional Roots of American Trade Policy: Politics, Coalitions, and International Trade.” World Politics 49 (3): 309–338.10.1353/wp.1997.0007Suche in Google Scholar

Baker, Peter. 2019. “Concerns for Recession Fuel a Search for Economic Villains.” URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/us/politics/trump-economy-recession.html.Suche in Google Scholar

Baldwin, Richard E. 2016. The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.10.2307/j.ctv24w655wSuche in Google Scholar

Bearce, David H., and Samantha L. Moya. 2017. Why is the Mass Public Not More Supportive of Free Trade? Evidence from the United States. Austin, TX: Annual Meeting of the International Political Economy Society.Suche in Google Scholar

Bernard, Andrew B., and J. Bradford Jensen. 1999. “Exceptional Exporter Performance: Cause, Effect, or Both?” Journal of International Economics 47 (1): 1–25.10.3386/w6272Suche in Google Scholar

Bernard, Andrew B., and J. Bradford Jensen. 2004. “Why Some Firms Export.” Review of Economics and Statistics 86 (2): 561–569.10.3386/w8349Suche in Google Scholar

Bernard, Andrew B., J. Bradford Jensen, and Peter K. Schott. 2005. Importers, Exporters and Multinationals: A Portrait of Firms in the U.S. that Trade Goods. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, Working Paper WP 05–10.Suche in Google Scholar

Bernard, Andrew B., J. Bradford Jensen, Stephen J. Redding, and Peter K. Schott. 2007. “Firms in International Trade.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 21 (3): 105–130.10.3386/w13054Suche in Google Scholar

Bernard, Andrew B., J. Bradford Jensen, Stephen J. Redding, and Peter K. Schott. 2018. “Global Firms.” Journal of Economic Literature 56 (2): 565–619.10.3386/w22727Suche in Google Scholar

Betz, Timm. 2017. “Trading Interests: Domestic Institutions, International Negotiations, and the Politics of Trade.” Journal of Politics 79 (4): 1237–1252.10.1086/692476Suche in Google Scholar

Betz, Timm. 2019. “Tariff Evasion and Trade Policies.” International Studies Quarterly 63 (2): 380–393.10.1093/isq/sqz008Suche in Google Scholar

Betz, Timm, and Amy Pond. 2019. “The Absence of Consumer Interests in Trade Policy.” Journal of Politics 81 (2): 585–600.10.1086/701493Suche in Google Scholar

Bhagwati, Jagdish. 2004. In Defense of Globalization. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Suche in Google Scholar

Bischof, Daniel. 2015. “Figure Schemes for Decent Stata Figures: plottig & plottig.” URL: http://danbischof.wordpress.com/publications/.Suche in Google Scholar

Bloomberg. 2019. Trade Groups Plead With Trump Not to Ruin Christmas With Tariffs. August 28, 2019: Terms of Trade.Suche in Google Scholar

Broda, Christian, and David Weinstein. 2006. “Globalization and the Gains from Variety.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 121 (2): 541–585.10.3386/w10314Suche in Google Scholar

Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2019. “Consumer Expenditures–2018.” URL: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.hTm.Suche in Google Scholar

Bursztyn, Leonardo, and Davide Cantone. 2016. “A Tear in the Iron Curtain: The Impact of Western Television on Consumption Behavior.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 98 (1): 25–41.10.3386/w20403Suche in Google Scholar

Calvert, Mary F. 2019. “Here’s Why US Importers and Consumers Pay Trump’s Tariffs, not China.” URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/02/heres-why-us-importers-and-consumers-pay-trumpstariffs-not-china.html.Suche in Google Scholar

Campbell, James E. 1985. “Explaining Presidential Losses in Midterm Congressional Elections.” Journal of Politics 47 (4): 1140–1157.10.2307/2130810Suche in Google Scholar

Cavallo, Alberto, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman, and Jenny Tang. 2019. Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy. Cambridge, MA: NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26396.Suche in Google Scholar

Chase, Kerry A. 2008a. “Moving Hollywood Abroad: Divided Labor Markets and the New Politics of Trade in Services.” International Organization 62 (4): 653–687.10.1017/S0020818308080235Suche in Google Scholar

Chase, Kerry A. 2008b. “Protecting Free Trade: The Political Economy of Rules of Origin.” International Organization 62 (3): 507–530.10.1017/S002081830808017XSuche in Google Scholar

Clinton, William J. 1993. “Remarks on the Signing of NAFTA.” Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States II (AE 2.114): 1485–1490.Suche in Google Scholar

Congressional Budget Office. 2019. An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029. Washington, DC: Congress of the United States, Congressional Budget Office. URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-08/55551-CBO-outlook-update_0.pdf.Suche in Google Scholar

Curtin, Richard. 2019. “August Final Results.” URL: https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=63703.Suche in Google Scholar

Dancygier, Rafaela, and Stefanie Walter. 2015. “Globalization, Labor Market Risks, and Class Cleavages.” In The Politics of Advanced Capitalism, edited by Pablo Beramendi, Silja Häusermann, Herbert Kitschelt and Hanspeter Kriesi, 133–154. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, chapter 5.10.1017/CBO9781316163245.006Suche in Google Scholar

Davis, Christina L. 2005. Food Fights over Free Trade: How International Institutions Promote Agricultural Trade Liberalization. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Suche in Google Scholar

De Loecker, Jan, and Jan Eeckhout. 2017. The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications. Cambridge, MA: NBER Working Paper Series, No. 23687. URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w23687.10.3386/w23687Suche in Google Scholar

Dean, Adam. 2016. From Conflict to Coalition: Profit-Sharing Institutions and the Political Economy of Trade. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781316717592Suche in Google Scholar

Dean, Adam. 2018. “NAFTA’s Army: Free Trade and US Military Enlistment.” International Studies Quarterly 62 (4): 845–856.10.1093/isq/sqy032Suche in Google Scholar

Fajgelbaum, Pablo, and Amit K. Khandelwal. 2016. “Measuring the Unequal Gains from Trade.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 131 (3): 1113–1180.10.3386/w20331Suche in Google Scholar

Feenstra, Robert C., Hong Ma, and Yuan Xu. 2019. “US Exports and Employment.” Journal of International Economics 120 (71673160): 46–58.10.3386/w24056Suche in Google Scholar

Fortune. 2018. Trump’s Tariffs Are a War on Christmas Gifts. Here’s How to Keep Them From Blowing Up Your Budget. September 18, 2018: Briefing.Suche in Google Scholar

Gerschenkron, Alexander. 1943. Bread and Democracy in Germany. Berkeley and Los Angeles, CA: University of California Press.Suche in Google Scholar

Glickman, Lawrence B. 1999. Consumer Society in American History. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Suche in Google Scholar

Goldstein, Judith, and Robert Gulotty. 2014. “America and Trade Liberalization: The Limits of Institutional Reform.” International Organization 68 (2): 263–295.10.1017/S0020818313000490Suche in Google Scholar

Grossman, Gene M., and Elhanan Helpman. 1994. “Protection for Sale.” American Economic Review 84 (4): 833–850.10.3386/w4149Suche in Google Scholar

Guisinger, Alexandra. 2009. “Determining Trade Policy: Do Voters Hold Politicians Accountable?” International Organization 63 (3): 533–557.10.1017/S0020818309090183Suche in Google Scholar

Guisinger, Alexandra. 2017. American Opinion on Trade: Preferences Without Politics. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190651824.001.0001Suche in Google Scholar

Gulotty, Robert. 2020. Narrowing the Channel: The Politics of Regulatory Protection in Global Trade. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago.10.7208/chicago/9780226669533.001.0001Suche in Google Scholar

Handley, Kyle, and Nuno Limão. 2017. “Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States.” American Economic Review 107 (9): 2731–2783.10.1142/9789813147980_0005Suche in Google Scholar

Helpman, Elhanan, Oleg Itskhoki, Marc-Andreas Muendler, and Stephen Redding. 2017. “Trade and Inequality: From Theory to Estimation.” Review of Economic Studies 84 (1): 357–405.10.3386/w17991Suche in Google Scholar

Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr. 1977. “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy.” American Political Science Review 71 (4): 1467–1487.10.1017/S0003055400269712Suche in Google Scholar

Hiscox, Michael J. 1999. “The Magic Bullet: The RTAA, Institutional Reform, and Trade Liberalization.” International Organization 53 (4): 669–698.10.1162/002081899551039Suche in Google Scholar

Hortacsu, Ali, Felix Tintelnot, and Aaron Flaaen. 2019. The Production, Relocation, and Price Effects of US Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines. Chicago, IL: Becker Friedman Institute, Working Paper 2019–61.Suche in Google Scholar

Hufbauer, Gary Clyde, and Sean Lowry. 2012. “US Tire Tariffs: Saving Few Jobs at High Cost.” Peterson Institute for International Economics PB12 (9): 1–14.Suche in Google Scholar

Irwin, Douglas A. 2015. Free Trade Under Fire. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Suche in Google Scholar

Javorcik, Beata S., and Gaia Narciso. 2008. “Differentiated Products and Evasion of Import Tariffs.” Journal of International Economics 76 (2): 208–222.10.1596/1813-9450-4123Suche in Google Scholar

Jensen, Christian B. 2007. “Implementing Europe: A Question of Oversight.” European Union Politics 8 (4): 451–477.10.1177/1465116507082810Suche in Google Scholar

Jensen, J. Bradford, Dennis P. Quinn, and Stephen Weymouth. 2017. “Winners and Losers in International Trade: The Effects on U.S. Presidential Voting.” International Organization 71 (3): 423–457.10.3386/w21899Suche in Google Scholar

Kerner, Andrew. N.d. “The Ownership Society: Financial Returns and Popular Support for Markets in Post-Pension Reform Latin America.” British Journal of Political Science Forthcoming.Suche in Google Scholar

Kerner, Andrew, and Jane Lawrence Sumner. 2019. “Salvation by Good Works? Offshoring, Corporate Philanthropy, and Public Attitudes toward Trade Policy.” Economics & Politics Forthcoming.10.1111/ecpo.12146Suche in Google Scholar

Kim, In Song. 2017. “Political Cleavages within Industry: Firm-level Lobbying for Trade Liberalization.” American Political Science Review 111 (1): 1–20.10.1017/S0003055416000654Suche in Google Scholar

Kim, In Song, and Iain Osgood. 2019. “Firms in Trade and Trade Politics.” Annual Review of Political Science in press.10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-063728Suche in Google Scholar

Kono, Daniel Y. 2006. “Optimal Obfuscation: Democracy and Trade Policy Transparency.” American Political Science Review 100 (3): 369–384.10.1017/S0003055406062241Suche in Google Scholar

Lucentini, Jack. 2000. “Customs, Importers Urge ITC to Review Tariff Classifications.” Journal of Commerce, May 1, p. 3.Suche in Google Scholar

Madeira, MaryAnne. 2016. “New Trade, New Politics: Intra-Industry Trade and Domestic Political Coalitions.” Review of International Political Economy 23 (4): 677–711.10.1080/09692290.2016.1218354Suche in Google Scholar

Manger, Mark. 2009. Investing in Protection: The Politics of Preferential Trade Agreements between North and South. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511635311Suche in Google Scholar

Mansfield, Edward D., and Marc L. Busch. 1995. “The Political Economy of Nontariff Barriers: A Cross-National Analysis.” International Organization 49 (4): 723–749.10.1017/S0020818300028496Suche in Google Scholar

Mansfield, Edward D., and Eric Reinhardt. 2008. “International Institutions and the Volatility of International Trade.” International Organization 62 (4): 621–652.10.1142/9789814644297_0005Suche in Google Scholar

Mansfield, Edward D., and Diana C. Mutz. 2009. “Support for Free Trade: Self-Interest, Sociotropic Politics, and Out-Group Anxiety.” International Organization 63 (3): 425–457.10.1142/9789814644297_0009Suche in Google Scholar

Mansfield, Edward D., and Diana C. Mutz. 2013. “US versus Them: Mass Attitudes toward Offshore Outsourcing.” World Politics 65 (4): 571–608.10.1017/S0043887113000191Suche in Google Scholar

Mansfield, Edward D., Diana C. Mutz, and Devon Brackbill. 2019. “Effects of the Great Recession on American Attitudes toward Trade.” British Journal of Political Science 49 (1): 37–58.10.1017/S0007123416000405Suche in Google Scholar

Mansfield, Edward D., Helen V. Milner, and B. Peter Rosendorff. 2000. “Free to Trade: Democracies, Autocracies, and International Trade.” American Political Science Review 94 (2): 305–321.10.1142/9789814644297_0007Suche in Google Scholar

Mattli, Walter, and Tim Büthe. 2003. “Setting International Standards: Technological Rationality or Primacy of Power?” World Politics 56 (1): 1–42.10.1353/wp.2004.0006Suche in Google Scholar

McKibben, Heather Elko, and Timothy Taylor. 2019. “Trade Balance and Policy Complexity: Explaining Political Elites’ Focus on International Trade at the Domestic Level.” International Interactions in press.10.1080/03050629.2019.1685989Suche in Google Scholar

Meyersohn, Nathaniel. 2018. “Walmart Is Where the Trade War Comes Home.” URL: https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/19/news/companies/walmart-tariffs-trumpchina/index.html.Suche in Google Scholar

Milner, Helen V. 1988. Resisting Protectionism. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.10.1515/9780691225289Suche in Google Scholar

Milner, Helen V., and Keiko Kubota. 2005. “Why the Move to Free Trade? Democracy and Trade Policy in the Developing Countries.” International Organization 59 (1): 107–143.10.1017/S002081830505006XSuche in Google Scholar

Mutz, Diana C., and Eunji Kim. 2017. “The Impact of In-Group Favoritism on Trade Preferences.” International Organization 71 (4): 827–850.10.1017/S0020818317000327Suche in Google Scholar

Naoi, Megumi, and Ikuo Kume. 2015. “Workers or Consumers? A Survey Experiment on the Duality of Citizens’ Interests in the Politics of Trade.” Comparative Political Studies 48 (10): 1293–1317.10.1177/0010414015574879Suche in Google Scholar

Nielson, Daniel L. 2003. “Supplying Trade Reform: Political Institutions and Liberalization in Middle-Income Presidential Democracies.” American Journal of Political Science 47 (3): 470–491.10.1111/1540-5907.00034Suche in Google Scholar

Owen, Erica. and Noel P. Johnston. 2017. “Occupation and the Political Economy of Trade: Job Routineness, Offshorability, and Protectionist Sentiment.” International Organization 71 (4): 665–699.10.1017/S0020818317000339Suche in Google Scholar

Palmer, Harvey D., and Guy D. Whitten. 1999. “The Electoral Impact of Unexpected Inflation and Economic Growth.” British Journal of Political Science 29 (4): 623–639.10.1017/S0007123499000307Suche in Google Scholar

Pandya, Sonal S., and Rajkumar Venkatesan. 2016. “French Roast: Consumer Response to International Conflict – Evidence from Supermarket Scanner Data.” Review of Economics and Statistics 98 (1): 42–56.10.1162/REST_a_00526Suche in Google Scholar

Pelc, Krzysztof J. 2013. “The Cost of Wiggle-Room: Looking at the Welfare Effects of Flexibility in Tariff Rates at the WTO.” International Studies Quarterly 57 (1): 91–102.10.1111/isqu.12037Suche in Google Scholar

Pierce, Justin R., and Peter K. Schott. 2016. “The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment.” American Economic Review 106 (7): 1632–1662.10.1257/aer.20131578Suche in Google Scholar

Plouffe, Michael. 2015. “Heterogeneous Firms and Policy Preferences.” In Oxford Handbook of the Political Economy of International Trade, edited by Lisa L. Martin, 196–212. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, chapter 15.Suche in Google Scholar

Pond, Amy, and Cristina Zafeiridou. 2019. “The Political Importance of Financial Performance.” American Journal of Political Science (in press).10.1111/ajps.12480Suche in Google Scholar

Porto, Guido G. 2006. “Using Survey Data to Assess the Distributional Effects of Trade Policy.” Journal of International Economics 70 (1): 140–160.10.1596/1813-9450-3137Suche in Google Scholar

Quinn, Dennis P., and Lizhi Liu. 2019. A China Shock or a Multinational Shock?: The Role of MNC Value Chains in the Trade Shock. San Diego, CA: Annual Meeting of the International Political Economy Society.Suche in Google Scholar

Rho, Sungmin, and Michael Tomz. 2017. “Why Don’t Trade Preferences Reflect Economic Self-Interest?” International Organization 71 (S1): S85–S108.10.1017/S0020818316000394Suche in Google Scholar

Rickard, Stephanie J. 2015. “Electoral Systems and Trade.” In The Oxford Handbook of the Political Economy of International Trade, edited by Lisa L. Martin, 280–297. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, chapter 15.Suche in Google Scholar

Rogowski, Ronald. 1987. “Trade and the Variety of Democratic Institutions.” International Organization 41 (2): 203–223.10.1017/S0020818300027442Suche in Google Scholar

Schaffer, Lena Maria, and Gabriele Spilker. 2019. “Self-interest versus Sociotropic Considerations: An Information-based Perspective to Understanding Individuals’ Trade Preferences.” Review of International Political Economy 26 (6): 1266–1292.10.1080/09692290.2019.1642232Suche in Google Scholar

Schattschneider, Elmer E. 1935. Politics, Pressures and the Tariff. A Study of Free Private Enterprise in Pressure Politics, as Shown in the 1929–1930 Revision of the Tariff. New York, NY: Prentice Hall.Suche in Google Scholar

Schell, Orville. 2011. “How Walmart Is Changing China.” The Atlantic 155 (December).Suche in Google Scholar

Silva, J. M. C. Santos, and Silvana Tenreyro. 2006. “The Log of Gravity.” Review of Economics and Statistics 88 (November): 641–658.10.1162/rest.88.4.641Suche in Google Scholar

Smith, Adam. 1827. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Edinburgh, Scotland: Thomas Nelson and Peter Brown.Suche in Google Scholar

Sung, Rena, Erica Owen, and Quan Li. N.d. “How Do Capital and Labor Split Economic Gains in an Age of Globalization?” Review of International Political Economy Forthcoming. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2019.1677744.10.1080/09692290.2019.1677744Suche in Google Scholar

Telford, Taylor. 2019. “Trump’s Trade War Comes for Consumers: Tariffs Could Cost U.S. Families up to $1,000 a Year, JPMorgan Forecasts.” URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/20/trumps-trade-war-comesconsumers-tariffs-will-cost-us-families-year-jp-morgan-forecasts/.Suche in Google Scholar

Tufte, Edward. 1978. Political Control of the Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.10.1515/9780691219417Suche in Google Scholar

United States International Trade Commission. 2017. The Economic Effects of Significant U.S. Import Restraints. Vol. Ninth Upda. Washington, DC: United States International Trade Commission. URL: https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/pub4726.pdf.Suche in Google Scholar

U.S. Census Bureau. 2018. Profile of U.S. Importing and Exporting Companies, 2015–2016. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce. URL: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/edb/2016/index.html#fullp.Suche in Google Scholar

U.S. Congress. 1870. Congressional Globe. 41st Congress, 2nd Session: Part 7, Appendix.Suche in Google Scholar

Wolff, Edward N. 2017. Household Wealth Trends in the United States, 1962 to 2016: Has Middle Class Wealth Recovered? Cambridge, MA: NBER Working Paper Series, No. 24085. URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w24085.Suche in Google Scholar

Zumbrun, Josh. 2019. “U.S. Collected $63 Billion in Tariffs Through June.” URL: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-collects-63-billion-in-chinese-tariffs-through-june-11565168400.Suche in Google Scholar

Published Online: 2020-03-05

©2020 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Heruntergeladen am 18.9.2025 von https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.1515/for-2019-0037/html
Button zum nach oben scrollen