Evolving Realities: Scientific Prediction and Objectivity from the Perspective of Historical Epistemology
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Anastasios Brenner
Abstract
Predictive power is one of the main arguments put forth in favor of scientific realism. Yet its precise characterization raises questions. From a logical point of view, a prediction consists of deriving a consequence from a universal law and initial conditions. But this does not appear to capture what motivates the scientist to adopt a new theory. Following post-positivists, one may go on to stipulate further conditions: a prediction should be novel, stunning or dramatic. Such concepts draw attention to context. They express a move away from the logical analysis of theory structure to the historical study of theory change. The temporal aspect of prediction is thereby taken into account. However, by bringing in the historical, sociological and psychological dimensions, the risk is that we dissolve altogether the notion we are trying to define. I am led to believe that there is something lacking in the historical inquiry just outlined. To be sure, it has been carried out within a rather narrow compass and has not sufficiently taken into account the contributions of other relevant traditions. My aim, then, is to bring the school of historical epistemology to bear on this issue, in other words, to question afresh the evolving realities that science offers us.
Abstract
Predictive power is one of the main arguments put forth in favor of scientific realism. Yet its precise characterization raises questions. From a logical point of view, a prediction consists of deriving a consequence from a universal law and initial conditions. But this does not appear to capture what motivates the scientist to adopt a new theory. Following post-positivists, one may go on to stipulate further conditions: a prediction should be novel, stunning or dramatic. Such concepts draw attention to context. They express a move away from the logical analysis of theory structure to the historical study of theory change. The temporal aspect of prediction is thereby taken into account. However, by bringing in the historical, sociological and psychological dimensions, the risk is that we dissolve altogether the notion we are trying to define. I am led to believe that there is something lacking in the historical inquiry just outlined. To be sure, it has been carried out within a rather narrow compass and has not sufficiently taken into account the contributions of other relevant traditions. My aim, then, is to bring the school of historical epistemology to bear on this issue, in other words, to question afresh the evolving realities that science offers us.
Chapters in this book
- Frontmatter I
- Contents V
- Novelty in Scientific Realism: New Approaches to an Ongoing Debate 1
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I New Framework for the Realism and Anti-realism Debate
- Scientific Realism: What’s All the Fuss? 27
- Scientific Realism and Three Problems for Inference to the Best Explanation 48
- Scientific Realism and the Conflict with Common Sense 68
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II Approaches based on History and Scientific Realism
- Evolving Realities: Scientific Prediction and Objectivity from the Perspective of Historical Epistemology 87
- Do Cognitive Illusions Make Scientific Realism Deceptively Attractive? 104
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III Logical Approaches in Realist Terms
- Against Paraconsistentism 133
- Stratified Nomic Realism 145
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IV Logico-Epistemological Structural Realism and Instrumental Realism
- Structural Realism: The Only Defensible Realist Game in Town? 169
- Mathematical Language and the Changing Concept of Physical Reality 206
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V New Developments on Critical Scientific Realism and Pragmatic Realism
- Interdisciplinarity from the Perspective of Critical Scientific Realism 231
- Pragmatic Realism and Scientific Prediction: The Role of Complexity 251
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VI Realism on Causality and Representation
- Realism and AIM (Action, Intervention, Manipulation) Theories of Causality 291
- Is Physics Biased Against Alternative Possibilities? 305
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VII Realist Accounts on Objectivity and Facts
- Realistic Components in the Conception of Pragmatic Idealism: The Role of Objectivity and the Notion of “Fact” 331
- “Heard Enough from the Experts”? A Popperian Enquiry 348
- Realism in Archaeology – A Philosophical Perspective 365
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VIII Realism and the Social World: From Social Sciences to the Sciences of the Artificial
- A Structural Realist Approach to International Relations Theory 391
- Objectivity and Truth in Sciences of Communication and the Case of the Internet 415
- Index of Names 437
- Subject Index 447
Chapters in this book
- Frontmatter I
- Contents V
- Novelty in Scientific Realism: New Approaches to an Ongoing Debate 1
-
I New Framework for the Realism and Anti-realism Debate
- Scientific Realism: What’s All the Fuss? 27
- Scientific Realism and Three Problems for Inference to the Best Explanation 48
- Scientific Realism and the Conflict with Common Sense 68
-
II Approaches based on History and Scientific Realism
- Evolving Realities: Scientific Prediction and Objectivity from the Perspective of Historical Epistemology 87
- Do Cognitive Illusions Make Scientific Realism Deceptively Attractive? 104
-
III Logical Approaches in Realist Terms
- Against Paraconsistentism 133
- Stratified Nomic Realism 145
-
IV Logico-Epistemological Structural Realism and Instrumental Realism
- Structural Realism: The Only Defensible Realist Game in Town? 169
- Mathematical Language and the Changing Concept of Physical Reality 206
-
V New Developments on Critical Scientific Realism and Pragmatic Realism
- Interdisciplinarity from the Perspective of Critical Scientific Realism 231
- Pragmatic Realism and Scientific Prediction: The Role of Complexity 251
-
VI Realism on Causality and Representation
- Realism and AIM (Action, Intervention, Manipulation) Theories of Causality 291
- Is Physics Biased Against Alternative Possibilities? 305
-
VII Realist Accounts on Objectivity and Facts
- Realistic Components in the Conception of Pragmatic Idealism: The Role of Objectivity and the Notion of “Fact” 331
- “Heard Enough from the Experts”? A Popperian Enquiry 348
- Realism in Archaeology – A Philosophical Perspective 365
-
VIII Realism and the Social World: From Social Sciences to the Sciences of the Artificial
- A Structural Realist Approach to International Relations Theory 391
- Objectivity and Truth in Sciences of Communication and the Case of the Internet 415
- Index of Names 437
- Subject Index 447
