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The American public and Trump’s trade war with China

  • Holger Janusch and Daniel Lorberg
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Turning Points
This chapter is in the book Turning Points

Abstract

On the basis of liberal intergovernmentalism assumptions, particularly bounded rationality, we define a critical juncture as a period of great confusion about public and societal group interests, beliefs, and perceptions that enables policymakers to question and abandon existing path dependencies. The Trump presidency marks such a critical juncture for US trade policy, especially toward China. Confusion about trade among the American public contributed to Trump’s election victory and enabled a shift away from previous liberal trade policies. As a result, the Trump administration launched a trade war with China. The trade war itself, in turn, affected public opinion on trade and China’s image; led to national preference recalibration; and contributed to the so-called Phase One Agreement with China. The interaction among national preference formation, international bargaining, and (interim) policy outcome challenges the strict sequence in foreign policy stages as assumed in liberal intergovernmentalism. Although Trump’s trade war with China is not the beginning of a protectionist path for US trade policy, it has initiated a radical shift from a belief in free trade to managed trade. The result is an increasing economic decoupling and a vicious cycle of intensifying hostilities that may trigger new path dependencies in US-China trade relations.

Abstract

On the basis of liberal intergovernmentalism assumptions, particularly bounded rationality, we define a critical juncture as a period of great confusion about public and societal group interests, beliefs, and perceptions that enables policymakers to question and abandon existing path dependencies. The Trump presidency marks such a critical juncture for US trade policy, especially toward China. Confusion about trade among the American public contributed to Trump’s election victory and enabled a shift away from previous liberal trade policies. As a result, the Trump administration launched a trade war with China. The trade war itself, in turn, affected public opinion on trade and China’s image; led to national preference recalibration; and contributed to the so-called Phase One Agreement with China. The interaction among national preference formation, international bargaining, and (interim) policy outcome challenges the strict sequence in foreign policy stages as assumed in liberal intergovernmentalism. Although Trump’s trade war with China is not the beginning of a protectionist path for US trade policy, it has initiated a radical shift from a belief in free trade to managed trade. The result is an increasing economic decoupling and a vicious cycle of intensifying hostilities that may trigger new path dependencies in US-China trade relations.

Chapters in this book

  1. Frontmatter I
  2. Preface V
  3. About the Editors VII
  4. Contents IX
  5. Introduction: Turning Points, Typology, and Puzzles 1
  6. I Pushing Back Globalisation? Brexit and Trump
  7. The impact of globalization and Europeanization on the societal foundations of Brexit 17
  8. Brexit: From ever closer union to differentiated integration? 35
  9. The American public and Trump’s trade war with China 53
  10. Digitalization, Trumpismo, and the end of the liberal world order? 75
  11. II Challenging the World Order? China, Russia, and Ukraine
  12. The end of the age of military intervention: Liberal interventionism and global order since the end of the Cold War 99
  13. Crowding out the West? China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian infrastructure investment bank 117
  14. American renewal or decline? The Biden administration, Europe, and the invasion of Ukraine 143
  15. III Calling for Social Change? Norms and Practices
  16. A tipping point in feminist foreign policy in Europe? A constructivist analysis based on the norm life cycle model 169
  17. The turning point that was not: The Arab Spring, realism, and the circularity of Western policies toward the Arab world 189
  18. Emerging and fading practices in the era of the internet: A reflexive approach to analysing intelligence professionals’ changing practices of data collection 209
  19. IV Changing Frozen Policies? Migration, Health, and Lobbying
  20. The 2015 refugee situation as a turning point? Migration- and integration-related debates in the German Bundestag 233
  21. COVID-19 as a potential turning point in German health policy 257
  22. Obstacles on the path to lobbying transparency in Europe: Assessing the German turning point at the end of the Merkel era 279
  23. V Dealing with Crises? Leadership and Market
  24. Re-regulating the European high-tech capitalism? The EU’s digitalization strategy at a turning point after the COVID-19 pandemic 311
  25. The Social Market Economy and institutional development: Change in times of crisis 335
  26. VI Reflecting on Uncertainty? Epistemics and Critique
  27. The emergent discourse on global threats and risks: An analysis of the contemporary empirical evidence extant in scientific journals 351
  28. On the precipice of the unknown: Discussing the paradigm of uncertainty as a political challenge to Western democracies 383
  29. Index 407
https://doi.org/10.1515/9783111272900-004

Chapters in this book

  1. Frontmatter I
  2. Preface V
  3. About the Editors VII
  4. Contents IX
  5. Introduction: Turning Points, Typology, and Puzzles 1
  6. I Pushing Back Globalisation? Brexit and Trump
  7. The impact of globalization and Europeanization on the societal foundations of Brexit 17
  8. Brexit: From ever closer union to differentiated integration? 35
  9. The American public and Trump’s trade war with China 53
  10. Digitalization, Trumpismo, and the end of the liberal world order? 75
  11. II Challenging the World Order? China, Russia, and Ukraine
  12. The end of the age of military intervention: Liberal interventionism and global order since the end of the Cold War 99
  13. Crowding out the West? China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian infrastructure investment bank 117
  14. American renewal or decline? The Biden administration, Europe, and the invasion of Ukraine 143
  15. III Calling for Social Change? Norms and Practices
  16. A tipping point in feminist foreign policy in Europe? A constructivist analysis based on the norm life cycle model 169
  17. The turning point that was not: The Arab Spring, realism, and the circularity of Western policies toward the Arab world 189
  18. Emerging and fading practices in the era of the internet: A reflexive approach to analysing intelligence professionals’ changing practices of data collection 209
  19. IV Changing Frozen Policies? Migration, Health, and Lobbying
  20. The 2015 refugee situation as a turning point? Migration- and integration-related debates in the German Bundestag 233
  21. COVID-19 as a potential turning point in German health policy 257
  22. Obstacles on the path to lobbying transparency in Europe: Assessing the German turning point at the end of the Merkel era 279
  23. V Dealing with Crises? Leadership and Market
  24. Re-regulating the European high-tech capitalism? The EU’s digitalization strategy at a turning point after the COVID-19 pandemic 311
  25. The Social Market Economy and institutional development: Change in times of crisis 335
  26. VI Reflecting on Uncertainty? Epistemics and Critique
  27. The emergent discourse on global threats and risks: An analysis of the contemporary empirical evidence extant in scientific journals 351
  28. On the precipice of the unknown: Discussing the paradigm of uncertainty as a political challenge to Western democracies 383
  29. Index 407
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