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4. Fighting Information Overload with Strategy
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Kapitel in diesem Buch
- Frontmatter i
- Contents v
- Acknowledgments vii
- Introduction ix
-
Part I. Uncertainty
- 1. Forecasting in Extreme Environments 3
- 2. Thinking in Probabilities 32
- 3. The Balance Between Overconfidence and Underconfidence, and the Special Risk of Complex Modeling 55
-
Part II. Information
- 4. Fighting Information Overload with Strategy 87
- 5. Making Decisions in Real Time: How to React to New Information Without Falling Victim to Cognitive Dissonance 110
- 6. Mitigating Information Asymmetry 137
-
Part III. Analysis and Judgment
- 7. Mapping from Simple Ideas to Complex Analysis 157
- 8. The Power and Pitfalls of Monte Carlo Modeling 178
- 9. Judgment 206
- Notes 237
- Index 257
Kapitel in diesem Buch
- Frontmatter i
- Contents v
- Acknowledgments vii
- Introduction ix
-
Part I. Uncertainty
- 1. Forecasting in Extreme Environments 3
- 2. Thinking in Probabilities 32
- 3. The Balance Between Overconfidence and Underconfidence, and the Special Risk of Complex Modeling 55
-
Part II. Information
- 4. Fighting Information Overload with Strategy 87
- 5. Making Decisions in Real Time: How to React to New Information Without Falling Victim to Cognitive Dissonance 110
- 6. Mitigating Information Asymmetry 137
-
Part III. Analysis and Judgment
- 7. Mapping from Simple Ideas to Complex Analysis 157
- 8. The Power and Pitfalls of Monte Carlo Modeling 178
- 9. Judgment 206
- Notes 237
- Index 257