3. The Balance Between Overconfidence and Underconfidence, and the Special Risk of Complex Modeling

Chapters in this book

1. Frontmatter i
2. Contents v
3. Acknowledgments vii
4. Introduction ix
5. Part I. Uncertainty
6. 1. Forecasting in Extreme Environments 3
7. 2. Thinking in Probabilities 32
8. 3. The Balance Between Overconfidence and Underconfidence, and the Special Risk of Complex Modeling 55
9. Part II. Information
10. 4. Fighting Information Overload with Strategy 87
11. 5. Making Decisions in Real Time: How to React to New Information Without Falling Victim to Cognitive Dissonance 110
12. 6. Mitigating Information Asymmetry 137
13. Part III. Analysis and Judgment
14. 7. Mapping from Simple Ideas to Complex Analysis 157
15. 8. The Power and Pitfalls of Monte Carlo Modeling 178
16. 9. Judgment 206
17. Notes 237
18. Index 257