Startseite Candidate Preference, State Context, and Voter Turnout: Comparing Non-Voters and Voters in the 2016 Presidential Election
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Candidate Preference, State Context, and Voter Turnout: Comparing Non-Voters and Voters in the 2016 Presidential Election

  • Vladimir E. Medenica EMAIL logo und Matthew Fowler
Veröffentlicht/Copyright: 7. September 2021
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Abstract

While much attention has been paid to understanding the drivers of support for Donald Trump, less focus has been placed on understanding the factors that led individuals to turn out and vote or stay home. This paper compares non-voters and voters in the 2016 election and explores how self-reported candidate preference prior to the election predicted turnout across three different state contexts: (1) all states, (2) closely contested states won by Trump, and (3) closely contested states won by Clinton. We find that preference for both candidates predicted turnout in the aggregate (all states) and in closely contested states won by Clinton, but only preference for Trump predicted turnout in the closely contested states won by Trump. Moreover, we find that political interest is negatively associated with preference for Clinton when examining candidate preferences among non-voters. Our analysis suggests that non-voters in the 2016 election held meaningful candidate preferences that impacted voter turnout but that state context played an important role in this relationship. This study sheds light on an understudied component of the 2016 election, the attitudes and behavior of non-voters, as well as points to the importance of incorporating contextual variation in future work on electoral behavior and voter turnout.

Keywords: voting; voter turnout; electoral politics; political behavior
Corresponding author: Vladimir E. Medenica, University of Delaware, Newark, USA, E-mail:
Appendix

Table A1:

Question wording for attitudinal measures in the 2016 ANES.

What do you think about the state of the economy these days in the United States? Would you say the state of the economy is …?
Would you say that compared to 2008, the nation’s economy is now better, worse, or about the same?
Which of the two statements comes closer to your view?

  1.  We need a strong government to handle today’s complex economic problems.

  1. The free market can handle these problems without government being involved.
Do you [agree strongly, agree somewhat, neither agree nor disagree, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly/disagree strongly, disagree somewhat, neither agree nor disagree, agree somewhat or agree strongly] with the following statement?

  •  ‘Immigrants are generally good for America’s economy.’

  •  ‘America’s culture is generally harmed by immigrants.’

  •  ‘Immigrants increase crime rates in the United States.’
Do you favor, oppose, or neither favor nor oppose building a wall on the U.S. border with Mexico?
How much discrimination is there in the United States today against each of the following groups?

  •  Women

  •  Men
How important is it that more women be elected to political office?
Ambivalent sexism (0–1 scale):

  1.  ‘Many women interpret innocent remarks or acts as being sexist.’

  1. Most women fail to appreciate fully all that men do for them.’

  1. Women seek to gain power by getting control over men.’

  1. Once a woman gets a man to commit to her, she tries to put him on a tight leash.’
Racial resentment (0–1 scale):

  1.  Irish, Italians, Jewish and many other minorities overcame prejudice and worked their way up. Blacks should do the same without any special favors.’

  1. Generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for blacks to work their way out of the lower class.’

  1. Over the past few years, blacks have gotten less than they deserve.’

  1. It’s really a matter of some people not trying hard enough, if blacks would only try harder they could be just as well off as whites.’
Do you [agree strongly, agree somewhat, neither agree nor disagree, disagree somewhat, or disagree strongly/disagree strongly, disagree somewhat, neither agree nor disagree, agree somewhat or agree strongly] with the following statement?

  •  ‘Most politicians are trustworthy.’
The contact variable was created from two questions:

  1.  As you know, the political parties try to talk to as many people as they can to get them to vote for their candidate. Did anyone from one of the political parties call you up or come around and talk to you about the campaign this year?

  1. Other than someone from the two major parties, did anyone (else) call you up or come around and talk to you about supporting specific candidates in this last election?
Table A2:

Swing state definitions (Cook Political Report).

All swing states Lean democrat Lean republican
Florida Colorado Arizona
Maine Michigan Georgia
Nebraska Nevada Iowa
North Carolina New Hampshire Ohio
Colorado Pennsylvania Utah
Michigan Wisconsin
Nevada
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Arizona
Georgia
Iowa
Ohio
Utah

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Published Online: 2021-09-07

© 2021 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Artikel in diesem Heft

  1. Frontmatter
  2. Introduction: Volume 19 No. 2
  3. Did Gary Johnson and Jill Stein Cost Hillary Clinton the Presidency? A Counterfactual Analysis of Minor Party Voting in the 2016 US Presidential Election
  4. Candidate Preference, State Context, and Voter Turnout: Comparing Non-Voters and Voters in the 2016 Presidential Election
  5. Allocating Unlimited Money: What Explains Super PAC Spending in Congressional Elections?
  6. Divided by Identity on the Left? Partisan Spillover and Identity Politics Alignment
  7. Retreating from Redistribution? Trends in Democratic Party Fidelity to Economic Equality, 1984–2020
  8. Lethal Incompetence: Leaders, Organizations, and the U.S. Response to COVID-19
  9. Book Reviews
  10. LaFleur Stephens-Dougan: Race to the Bottom: How Racial Appeals Work in American Politics
  11. Rachel M. Blum: How the Tea Party Captured the GOP
https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2021-0013
Schlagwörter für diesen Artikel
voting; voter turnout; electoral politics; political behavior

Artikel in diesem Heft

  1. Frontmatter
  2. Introduction: Volume 19 No. 2
  3. Did Gary Johnson and Jill Stein Cost Hillary Clinton the Presidency? A Counterfactual Analysis of Minor Party Voting in the 2016 US Presidential Election
  4. Candidate Preference, State Context, and Voter Turnout: Comparing Non-Voters and Voters in the 2016 Presidential Election
  5. Allocating Unlimited Money: What Explains Super PAC Spending in Congressional Elections?
  6. Divided by Identity on the Left? Partisan Spillover and Identity Politics Alignment
  7. Retreating from Redistribution? Trends in Democratic Party Fidelity to Economic Equality, 1984–2020
  8. Lethal Incompetence: Leaders, Organizations, and the U.S. Response to COVID-19
  9. Book Reviews
  10. LaFleur Stephens-Dougan: Race to the Bottom: How Racial Appeals Work in American Politics
  11. Rachel M. Blum: How the Tea Party Captured the GOP
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