Volume 64, Issue 2

This paper deals with changes in economic behaviour. It demonstrates how economic decision-making is formed by values and institutions, which provide a framework of economic processes. Changes in this framework appear as a result of human creativity and can be influenced by several kinds of policy measures (economic policy, educational policy, social policy). In a liberal society, such measures should aim at providing opportunities to participate in economic and social life for all citizens and at strengthening the link between liberty and responsibility.

In Europe’s Emission Trading System (ETS), prices for emission permits have remained low for many years now. This fact gave rise to controversies on whether there is a need for fundamentally reforming the ETS. Potential reform proposals include the introduction of a minimum price for certificates and a market stability reserve (MSR). This is a rule-based mechanism to steering the volume of permits in the market. While preparing the introduction of this instrument, the European Commission hopes to be able to increase and stabilize certificate prices in the medium- and long-term. In this article, we recommend retaining the ETS as it is, rather than supplementing it by introducing a minimum price floor or a market stability reserve. Instead, mistakes from the past should be corrected by a single intervention: the final elimination of those 900 million permits that were taken out of the market in 2014, but would again emerge in the market in 2019 and 2020 (backloading). Zusammenfassung Die seit Jahren niedrigen Zertifikatpreise werden häufig als Begründung dafür angeführt, dass eine Reformierung des EU-Emissionshandels zwingend notwendig wäre. Der von der Europäischen Kommission favorisierte Reformvorschlag ist die Marktstabilitätsreserve. Dies ist ein regelbasierter Mechanismus, über den die Menge an Emissionsberechtigungen gesteuert werden kann. Davon erhofft sich die Kommission die mittel- bis langfristige Stabilisierung des Zertifikatpreises auf einem höheren als dem gegenwärtigen Niveau. Alternative Vorschläge sind die Einführung einer Mindestpreisregelung oder eines Preiskorridors. In diesem Beitrag erörtern wir, warum es empfehlenswert wäre, den Emissionshandel möglichst in seiner Reinform zu belassen, anstatt ihn durch eine Mindestpreisregelung, einen Preiskorridor oder eine Marktstabilitätsreserve zu ergänzen. Fehler aus der Vergangenheit sollten durch einen einmalig erfolgenden Eingriff beseitigt werden: durch die Löschung der 900 Millionen Zertifikate, die im Jahr 2014 aus dem Markt genommen wurden, aber in Zukunft wieder auf den Markt gelangen sollen.

Helmut Gründl discusses in his paper the effects of the present low interest rate environment on the German life insurance industry. By referring to a recent study of the “International Center for Insurance Regulation”, he assesses insolvency probabilities for life insurers with different capital endowments under different interest rate scenarios. Based on that, he discusses measures of insurance regulation that try to cope with the imminent problems of the life insurance industry. Finally, he has a look at product developments and investment strategies of life insurers in the presence of low interest rates. Hereby, he argues, that life insurance products with lower investment guarantees that are granted for a shorter period of time are regarded as the best remedy to avoid low interest rate problems in the future. Such product development also allows for a more risky investment policy of life insurers that can make life and annuity products more attractive. Rolf Ketzler und Peter Schwark explicate that the very accommodative monetary policy of the ECB and the related extremely low interest rates are involved with major challenges for the German insurance sector, in particular for life insurers. As long-term investors, insurers are not only affected in their capital investment strategy, but also by different households’ retirement saving patterns in response to the low interest rate environment. Several significant steps have already been taken in order to ensure the long-term viability of life insurance. These include changes in the product portfolio as well as new approaches in the investment strategy. In addition, new regulatory requirements have been established to strengthen the risk bearing capacity of life insurers. Given the substantial risks of low interest rates, from an economic point of view the question concerning an appropriate exit from the low interest rate environment needs more attention in the public debate. They argue that in this context, further progress regarding the economic reform policies in the euro zone is still necessary as a condition for the ECB to normalize its monetary policy as soon as possible. Focusing the perspective of German life insurance industry, the article of Heinrich Schradin starts with a brief description and discussion of the financial impact of the persistently low interest rate environment. Based on an empirical data set of German life insurers, the author illustrates actual limitations to generate sufficient investment income for to meet the given specific financial guarantees. Moreover, the core problem, caused by the use of volatile timing-related interest rates for to evaluate long-term cash flows, becomes obvious. The currently observed regulatory interventions are trying to overcome the existential consequences of the so-called fair value measurement. In consequence, the author derives four central theses: 1. Life insurance in Germany suffers from insufficient capital adequacy. 2. Persistent low interest rates threaten the fulfillment of financial guaranty commitments of German life insurers. 3. The generally accepted principals of economic evaluation do not satisfy to the traditional business model of German life insurers. 4. Under a business perspective, the development of new life insurance products is inevitable.

This paper discusses the effects of the present low interest rate environment on the German life insurance industry. By referring to a recent study of the “International Center for Insurance Regulation”, we assess insolvency probabilities for life insurers with different capital endowments under different interest rate scenarios. Based on that, we discuss measures of insurance regulation that try to cope with the imminent problems of the life insurance industry. Finally, we have a look at product developments and investment strategies of life insurers in the presence of low interest rates. Hereby, life insurance products with lower investment guarantees that are granted for a shorter period of time are regarded as the best remedy to avoid low interest rate problems in the future. Such product development also allows for a more risky investment policy of life insurers that can make life and annuity products more attractive.

The very accommodative monetary policy of the ECB and the related extremely low interest rates are involved with major challenges for the German insurance sector, in particular for life insurers. As long-term investors, insurers are not only affected in their capital investment strategy, but also by different households’ retirement saving patterns in response to the low interest rate environment. Several significant steps have already been taken in order to ensure the long-term viability of life insurance. These include changes in the product portfolio as well as new approaches in the investment strategy. In addition, new regulatory requirements have been established to strengthen the risk bearing capacity of life insurers. Given the substantial risks of low interest rates, from an economic point of view the question concerning an appropriate exit from the low interest rate environment needs more attention in the public debate. In this context, further progress regarding the economic reform policies in the euro zone is still necessary as a condition for the ECB to normalize its monetary policy as soon as possible.

Focusing the perspective of German life insurance industry, this article starts with a brief description and discussion of the financial impact of the persistently low interest rate environment. Based on an empirical data set of German life insurers, the author illustrates actual limitations to generate sufficient investment income for to meet the given specific financial guarantees. Moreover, the core problem, caused by the use of volatile timingrelated interest rates for to evaluate long-term cash flows, becomes obvious. The currently observed regulatory interventions are trying to overcome the existential consequences of the so-called fair value measurement. In consequence, the author derives four central theses: 1. Life insurance in Germany suffers from insufficient capital adequacy. 2. Persistent low interest rates threaten the fulfillment of financial guaranty commitments of German life insurers. 3. The generally accepted principals of economic evaluation do not satisfy to the traditional business model of German life insurers. 4. Under a business perspective, the development of new life insurance products is inevitable.

Corporate investment has developed only moderately in Germany since the global financial market crisis. The capital stock made up of machinery and equipment has been in a stalemate since 2008. However, the notion of a quantifiable investment gap is not tenable. A recent survey of German companies provides important information about current obstacles to investment in Germany. On the one hand, the respondent companies suffer from increasing global uncertainties. On the other hand, the conditions for investment in Germany have deteriorated. Examples are the high-energy costs in international comparison and new labor market regulations like early retirement schemes and legal minimum wages. Instead of engaging in expensive investment programs, the German government should better tackle the homemade barriers to investment. Zusammenfassung Die Unternehmen investieren seit der globalen Wirtschaftskrise eher verhalten in neue Ausrüstungen in Deutschland. Der aus Maschinen und Geräte bestehende Kapitalstock stagniert bereits seit dem Jahr 2008. Das ist die längste Phase ohne einen Kapitalaufbau in diesem Bereich seit 1991. Eine IW-Befragung von 2.900 Unternehmen im Herbst 2014 liefert wichtige Informationen über die gegenwärtigen Investitionshemmnisse in Deutschland. Demnach leiden die Investitionen vor allem unter den großen weltwirtschaftlichen Unsicherheiten. Die investiven Rahmenbedingungen haben sich aber auch in Deutschland verschlechtert. Für die Hälfte der befragten Firmen zählen dazu vor allem die im internationalen Vergleich hohen Energiekosten. Die Frühverrentung, der Mindestlohn mit seinen umfangreichen Dokumentationspflichten und die geplante strengere Regulierung der Zeitarbeit schaffen ebenfalls zusätzliche Kosten für die Unternehmen - und verringern den „return on investment“. Bevor sich die Politik an teuren Investitionsprogrammen verausgabt, sollte sie sich bemühen, die Angebotsbedingungen für Unternehmen in Deutschland wieder zu verbessern. Hier kann auf drei Ebenen angesetzt werden: 1. Kosten in den Griff bekommen. Deutschland ist ein Hochkostenland. Das gilt nicht nur für die Arbeitskosten, sondern auch für die Energie. Eine Reduktion dieser Belastungen ist ebenso notwendig wie mehr Planungssicherheit für energieintensive Unternehmen. 2. Flexibilität erhalten. Bürokratie und Regulierungen müssen abgebaut und dürfen nicht aufgebaut werden. So könnte für jede neue bürokratische Regelung eine andere wirkungsgleich gestrichen werden. 3. Grundlagen für künftiges Wachstum schaffen. Dazu muss beständig und effektiv in die Infrastruktur investiert werden – nicht im Rahmen von Hauruck-Programmen. Die Mittel für eine ordentliche Infrastruktur sind da – die Politik muss nur Prioritäten setzen. Einen Grund für Steuererhöhungen gibt es nicht.

On July, 19th, 2013 the OECD published an „Action Plan on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting“, a catalogue of 15 actions against the tax avoidance strategies of multinational companies. The intention of the present paper is to investigate and evaluate if such a coordination of the national policies is necessary from a constitutional economics perspective. The thesis is that the planned actions against the tax avoidance strategies of multinational companies can strengthen the relation of the national corporation tax revenues to the use of public goods. However, the question arises if for interest and royalty payments an international coordinated withholding taxation would not be preferable and if the European Union additionally should not agree on a common assessment base for corporate taxation.