Volume 27, Issue 2

In this work we study the effects by including threshold, constant and time-dependent correlation in stochastic volatility (SV) models to capture the asymmetry relationship between stock returns and volatility. We develop SV models which include only time-dependent correlated innovations and both threshold and time-dependent correlation, respectively. It has been shown in literature that the SV model with only constant correlation does a better job of capturing asymmetry than threshold stochastic volatility (TSV) model. We show here that the SV model with time-dependent correlation performs better than the model with constant correlation on capturing asymmetry, and the comprehensive model with both threshold and time-dependently correlated innovations dominates models with pure threshold, constant and time-dependent correlation, and both threshold and constant correlation as well. In our comprehensive model, volatility and returns are time-dependently correlated, where the time-varying correlation is negative, and the volatility is more persistent, less volatile and higher following negative returns as expected. An empirical study is provided to illustrate our findings.

The unemployment is the main channel through which the economic and financial crises influence the social development. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to study the interactions between financial crisis spread, economic growth and unemployment. We also solve an optimal control problem focusing on the minimization, at the lowest cost, of the adverse effects of the financial crisis. The analysis of the model leads us to two equilibria: (1) a stress free equilibrium, where the economy and the employment are optimal, and (2) a stressed equilibrium. We obtain a theoretical confirmation of Okun’s law and a formula to compute the minimum reservation wage in terms of model parameters. Numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the theoretical results obtained.

This paper extends the Realized-GARCH framework, by allowing the conditional variance equation to incorporate exogenous variables related to intra-day realized measures. The choice of these measures is motivated by the so-called heterogeneous auto-regressive (HAR) class of models. Our augmented model is found to outperform both the Realized-GARCH and the various HAR models in terms of in-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. The new model specification is examined under alternative parametric density assumptions for the return innovations. Non-normality seems to be very important for filtering the return innovations to which variance responds and helps significantly upon the prediction performance of the suggested model.

We perform an extensive investigation of different specifications of the BEKK-type multivariate volatility models for a moderate number of assets, focusing on how the degree of parametrization affects forecasting performance. Because the unrestricted specification may be too generously parameterized, often one imposes restrictions on coefficient matrices constraining them to have a diagonal or even scalar structure. We frame all three model variations (full, diagonal, scalar) as special cases of a ridge-type regularized estimator, where the off-diagonal elements are shrunk towards zero and the diagonal elements are shrunk towards homogeneity. Our forecasting experiments with BEKK-type Conditional Autoregressive Wishart model for realized volatility confirm the superiority of the more parsimonious scalar and diagonal model variations. Even though sometimes a moderate degree of regularization of the diagonal and off-diagonal parameters may be beneficial for forecasting performance, it does not regularly lead to tangible performance improvements irrespective of how precise is tuning of regularization intensity. Additionally, our results highlight the crucial importance of frequent model re-estimation in improving the forecast precision, and, perhaps paradoxically, a slight advantage of shorter estimation windows compared to longer windows.

In a New Keynesian model, it is believed that combining active monetary policy using a Taylor rule with a passive fiscal rule can achieve local equilibrium determinacy. However, even with such policies, indeterminacy can occur from the emergence of a Shilnikov chaotic attractor in the region of the feasible parameter space. That result, shown by Barnett et al. (2022a), “Shilnikov Chaos, Low Interest Rates, and New Keynesian Macroeconomics ,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 134, and again by Barnett et al. (2022b), “Is Policy Causing Chaos in the United Kingdom,” Economic Modeling 108, implies that the presence of the Shilnikov chaotic attractor can cause the economy to drift towards and finally become stuck in the vicinity of lower-than-targeted inflation and nominal interest rates. The result can become the source of a liquidity trap phenomenon. We propose policy options for eliminating or controlling Shilnikov chaotic dynamics to help the economy escape from the liquidity trap or avoid drifting into it in the first place. We consider ways to eliminate or control the chaos by replacing the usual Taylor rule by an alternative policy design without interest rate feedback, such as a Taylor rule with monetary quantity feedback, an active fiscal policy rule with passive monetary rule, or an open loop policy without feedback. We also consider approaches that retain the Taylor rule with interest rate feedback and the associated Shilnikov chaos, while controlling the chaos through a well-known engineering algorithm using a second policy instrument. We find that a second instrument is needed to incorporate a long-run terminal condition missing from the usual myopic Taylor rule.

In this paper, the effects of United States (US) policy actions on mortgage-backed security and mortgage loan spreads are measured, by using data before, during, and after the US subprime mortgage crisis. We study the effects of the following policy actions: (i) the placement of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into US Government conservatorship; (ii) the US Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) programs. We provide the following contributions to the literature: (i) for a robust measurement of policy effects, a new multi-equation score-driven t -QVARMA (quasi-vector autoregressive moving average) model is used. (ii) In addition to the measurement of the effects of QE, the effects of government conservatorship are also measured in this paper. (iii) Furthermore, the data period of the relevant literature is extended to the period of June 1998 to March 2020.

We study aggregate uncertainty and its linear and nonlinear impact on real and financial markets. By distinguishing between four general notions of aggregate uncertainty (good-expected, bad-expected, good-unexpected, bad-unexpected) within a simple, common framework, we show that it is bad-unexpected uncertainty shocks that generate a negative reaction of economic variables (such as investment and consumption) and asset prices. Our results help to elucidate the real, complex nature of uncertainty, which can be both a backward- or forward-looking expected or unexpected event, with markedly different consequences for the economy. We also document nonlinearities in the propagation of uncertainty to both real and financial markets, which calls for the close monitoring of the evolution of uncertainty so as to help mitigate the adverse effects of its occurrence.