Volume 19, Issue 2

A major challenge in plant developmental biology is to understand how plant growth is coordinated by interacting hormones and genes. To meet this challenge, it is important to not only use experimental data, but also formulate a mathematical model. For the mathematical model to best describe the true biological system, it is necessary to understand the parameter space of the model, along with the links between the model, the parameter space and experimental observations. We develop sequential history matching methodology, using Bayesian emulation, to gain substantial insight into biological model parameter spaces. This is achieved by finding sets of acceptable parameters in accordance with successive sets of physical observations. These methods are then applied to a complex hormonal crosstalk model for Arabidopsis root growth. In this application, we demonstrate how an initial set of 22 observed trends reduce the volume of the set of acceptable inputs to a proportion of 6.1 × 10 −7 of the original space. Additional sets of biologically relevant experimental data, each of size 5, reduce the size of this space by a further three and two orders of magnitude respectively. Hence, we provide insight into the constraints placed upon the model structure by, and the biological consequences of, measuring subsets of observations.

Short Tandem Repeats (STRs) are a type of DNA polymorphism. This study considers discriminant analysis to determine the population of test individuals using an STR database containing the lengths of STRs observed at more than one locus. The discriminant method based on the Bayes factor is discussed and an improved method is proposed. The main issues are to develop a method that is relatively robust to sample size imbalance, identify a procedure to select loci, and treat the parameter in the prior distribution. A previous study achieved a classification accuracy of 0.748 for the g-mean (geometric mean of classification accuracies for two populations) and 0.867 for the AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve). We improve the maximum values for the g-mean to 0.830 and the AUC to 0.935. Computer simulations indicate that the previous method is susceptible to sample size imbalance, whereas the proposed method is more robust while achieving almost identical classification accuracy. Furthermore, the results confirm that threshold adjustment is an effective countermeasure to sample size imbalance.

Genome wide association study (GWAS) is becoming fundamental in the arduous task of deciphering the etiology of complex diseases. The majority of the statistical models used to address the genes-disease association consider a single response variable. However, it is common for certain diseases to have correlated phenotypes such as in cardiovascular diseases. Usually, GWAS typically sample unrelated individuals from a population and the shared familial risk factors are not investigated. In this paper, we propose to apply a bivariate model using family data that associates two phenotypes with a genetic region. Using generalized estimation equations (GEE), we model two phenotypes, either discrete, continuous or a mixture of them, as a function of genetic variables and other important covariates. We incorporate the kinship relationships into the working matrix extended to a bivariate analysis. The estimation method and the joint gene-set effect in both phenotypes are developed in this work. We also evaluate the proposed methodology with a simulation study and an application to real data.