Volume 12, Issue 5

We present a novel method for simultaneous inference and nonparametric clustering of transcriptional dynamics from gene expression data. The proposed method uses gene expression data to infer time-varying TF profiles and cluster these temporal profiles according to the dynamics they exhibit. We use the latent structure of factorial hidden Markov model to model the transcription factor profiles as Markov chains and cluster these profiles using nonparametric mixture modeling. An efficient Gibbs sampling scheme is proposed for inference of latent variables and grouping of transcriptional dynamics into a priori unknown number of clusters. We test our model on simulated data and analyse its performance on two expression datasets; S. cerevisiae cell cycle data and E. coli oxygen starvation response data. Our results show the applicability of the method for genome wide analysis of expression data.

The gene genealogy is a tree describing the ancestral relationships among genes sampled from unrelated individuals. Knowledge of the tree is useful for inference of population-genetic parameters and has potential application in gene-mapping. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches that sample genealogies conditional on observed genetic data typically assume that haplotype data are observed even though commonly-used genotyping technologies provide only unphased genotype data. We have extended our haplotype-based genealogy sampler, sampletrees, to handle unphased genotype data. We use the sampled haplotype configurations as a diagnostic for adequate sampling of the tree space based on the reasoning that if haplotype sampling is restricted, sampling from the tree space will also be restricted. We compare the distributions of sampled haplotypes across multiple runs of sampletrees, and to those estimated by the phase inference program, PHASE. Performance was excellent for the majority of individuals as shown by the consistency of results across multiple runs. However, for some individuals in some datasets, sampletrees had problems sampling haplotype configurations; longer run lengths would be required for these datasets. For many datasets though, we expect that sampletrees will be useful for sampling from the posterior distribution of gene genealogies given unphased genotype data.

Classification rules that incorporate additional information usually present in discrimination problems are receiving certain attention during the last years as they perform better than the usual rules. Fernández, M. A., C. Rueda and B. Salvador (2006): “Incorporating additional information to normal linear discriminant rules,” J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 101, 569–577, proved that these rules have lower total misclassification probability than the usual Fisher’s rule. In this paper we consider two issues; on the one hand, we compare these rules with those based on shrinkage estimators of the mean proposed by Tong, T., L. Chen and H. Zhao (2012): “Improved mean estimation and its application to diagonal discriminant analysis,” Bioinformatics, 28(4): 531–537. with regard to four criteria: total misclassification probability, area under ROC curve, well-calibratedness and refinement; on the other hand, we consider the estimation of the true error rate, which is a very interesting parameter in applications. We prove results on the apparent error rate of the rules that expose the need of new estimators of their true error rate. We propose four such new estimators. Two of them are defined incorporating the additional information into the leave-one-out-bootstrap. The other two are the corresponding cross-validation after bootstrap versions. We compare these estimators with the usual ones in a simulation study and in a cancer trial application, showing the good behavior of the rules that incorporate additional information and of the new leave-one-out bootstrap estimators of their true error rate.

The likelihood–free sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms are increasingly popular inference tools for complex biological models. Such algorithms proceed by constructing a succession of probability distributions over the parameter space conditional upon the simulated data lying in an ε –ball around the observed data, for decreasing values of the threshold ε . While in theory, the distributions (starting from a suitably defined prior) will converge towards the unknown posterior as ε tends to zero, the exact sequence of thresholds can impact upon the computational efficiency and success of a particular application. In particular, we show here that the current preferred method of choosing thresholds as a pre-determined quantile of the distances between simulated and observed data from the previous population, can lead to the inferred posterior distribution being very different to the true posterior. Threshold selection thus remains an important challenge. Here we propose that the threshold–acceptance rate curve may be used to determine threshold schedules that avoid local optima, while balancing the need to minimise the threshold with computational efficiency. Furthermore, we provide an algorithm based upon the unscented transform, that enables the threshold–acceptance rate curve to be efficiently predicted in the case of deterministic and stochastic state space models.

Model selection between competing models is a key consideration in the discovery of prognostic multigene signatures. The use of appropriate statistical performance measures as well as verification of biological significance of the signatures is imperative to maximise the chance of external validation of the generated signatures. Current approaches in time-to-event studies often use only a single measure of performance in model selection, such as logrank test p-values, or dichotomise the follow-up times at some phase of the study to facilitate signature discovery. In this study we improve the prognostic signature discovery process through the application of the multivariate partial Cox model combined with the concordance index, hazard ratio of predictions, independence from available clinical covariates and biological enrichment as measures of signature performance. The proposed framework was applied to discover prognostic multigene signatures from early breast cancer data. The partial Cox model combined with the multiple performance measures were used in both guiding the selection of the optimal panel of prognostic genes and prediction of risk within cross validation without dichotomising the follow-up times at any stage. The signatures were successfully externally cross validated in independent breast cancer datasets, yielding a hazard ratio of 2.55 [1.44, 4.51] for the top ranking signature.

Genomics studies frequently involve clustering of molecular data to identify groups, but common clustering methods such as K-means clustering and hierarchical clustering do not determine the number of clusters. Methods for estimating the number of clusters typically focus on identifying the global structure in the data, however the discovery of substructures within clusters may also be of great biological interest. We propose a novel method, Partitioning Algorithm based on Recursive Thresholding (PART), that recursively uncovers distinct subgroups in the groups already identified. Outliers are common in high-dimensional genomics data and may mask the presence of substructure within a cluster. A crucial feature of the algorithm is the introduction of tentative splits of clusters to isolate outliers that might otherwise halt the recursion prematurely. The method is demonstrated on simulated as well as a wide range of real data sets from gene expression microarrays, where the correct clusters were known in advance. When subclusters are present and the variance is large or varies between the clusters, the proposed method performs better than two established global methods on simulated data. On the real data sets the overall performance of PART is superior to the global methods when used in combination with hierarchical clustering. The method is implemented in the R package clusterGenomics and is freely available from CRAN (The Comprehensive R Archive Network).