Band 10, Heft 1

Employing traditional event study methodology we examine the market reaction to layoff announcements of firms listed on the German stock market. We contribute to the international literature in this field with two major results. First, unlike anecdotal and similar to international evidence we report a negative and significant abnormal rate of return of −0.37 percent on the announcement day. Further, we find that the reason for the layoff announcement plays a decisive role in the revaluation process. On the one hand, stocks of firms that announce layoffs as a reaction to declining market conditions are associated with a more intense negative market response. On the other hand, even stocks of firms that intend to enhance their profitability by means of layoffs do not show a significant positive reaction.

This article analyses the impact of the exchange rate on the role of dollar and euro as international currencies. It is found that exchange rate fluctuations are a major determinant of the international role of currencies only if they reflect sizeable inflation differentials. Accordingly, major changes in the international role of dollar and euro are not to be expected given the continuation of a stability-oriented US monetary policy. However, a move towards more exchange rate flexibility in emerging market economies, reflecting the need for greater monetary policy autonomy, might lead to a relative strengthening of the international role of the euro. 38 C

Recent findings in Economic Psychology on the thinking and judgment of economic laymen can help to improve economic policy advice. First, based on psychological theories and empirical findings, the notion of the Homo oeconomicus is challenged. The economic situation is judged by laymen using implicit theories and biases, which are not in line with neoclassical economics. Then, the relevance of these theories and heuristics is shown empirically by the systematically different opinions of economists and non-economists on economic policy measures like minimum wages and maximum salaries. Conclusions for policy advisors complement the analysis.

Along with the oil price, concerns about the security of energy supply have soared once again in recent years. Yet, more than 30 years after the OPEC oil embargo in 1973, energy security still remains a diffuse concept. This article conceives a statistical indicator that aims at characterizing the long-term energy supply risk of nations that are heavily dependent on energy imports. Our indicator condenses the bulk of empirical information on the imports of fossil fuels originating from a multitude of export countries as well as data on the indigenous contribution to the domestic energy supply, thereby providing us with a single parameter. Applying the proposed concept to empirical energy data on Germany (1980-2004), we find that the energy supply risk has increased substantially since the 1970s. This outcome is mainly due to the drastic raise of oil and gas imports from Russia.

Europe has implemented in the year 2005 an emissions trading system in order to fulfill the Kyoto emissions reduction targets. In principle, the instrument should be a cost-efficient measure of climate protection. But within the first implementation phase because of a over-allocation of emissions permits the emissions price declined to almost zero. In order to improve the effectiveness of the emissions trading system, emission permits should be auctioned. In addition, more gases and sectors should ideally be covered.