Band 13, Heft 1

This paper builds on several existing empirical models that have been widely used in studying the causes of civil war and/or internal political instability. It begins by showing that some widespread models have been inadequate in both accurately modeling causal relations and time dependence among several kinds of events, and to take advantage of some highly disaggregated (daily) datasets. It does so thanks to graphical comparisons of several existing models and dataset arrangements, followed by an intuitive graphical representation of the proposed model. Then, mathematical tools are used to compare the latter to a particular Generalized Linear Model. It is shown how the proposed model can be implemented practically, and it is finally applied to the period 1962-1997 to study the impact of International Financial Institutions' Structural Adjustment Programs on the risk of civil war.

This paper investigates the ways in which terrorism is linked to education and poverty using data newly culled from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) documentary sources. The paper presents a statistical analysis of the determinants of participation in terrorist activities by members of the Hamas and PIJ between the late 1980s and May 2002. The resulting evidence suggests that both higher education and standard of living are positively associated with participation in Hamas or PIJ and with becoming a suicide bomber, while being married significantly reduces the probability of participation in terrorist activities.

The international community injects millions of dollars into the Middle East region every year. The main objective of this funding is to create a desirable impact either in economic or socio-political parameters. The standard economic tools are limited to the economics impact only; therefore a more comprehensive method is required. Using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method together with a ranking method, we developed a credible systematic tool that can be used by the international community to achieve maximum efficiency under certain budget constraints.

The strength of Hamas in Palestinian elections in early 2006 reshuffled the cards in the game of Middle East politics. Many astonished observers have sought an explanation for this political change. But the election result should not have been so surprising. Hamas has earned a reputation of clean governance and compassion for the poor, unlike the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority. Hamas has had a strong presence in the health sector which helped establish its legitimacy and popularity. This paper reviews bilateral and multilateral aid to Palestinians following the second intifada and argues that not enough was done by the international community to bolster health services of the Palestinian Authority. This left a void that Hamas and other charitable organizations have filled. The health sector remains strategic and its assimilation with the Palestinian Authority should be sought. Comprehensive policy toward the Middle East and other developing regions should integrate social welfare programs with global security interests.