Band 4, Heft 3

Combat modeling is an important area of military operations. System of system counterwork is an important mode of information-based war which is a mode of “network centered” instead of “platform centered” and “capability oriented” instead of “function oriented”. Under the conditions of informationization, the combat model must therefore address these challenges by properly representing the networked efficient based on mutual relations among combat entities. The implementation process of combat system of systems capability is analyzed which is the result of complex interactions between the entities in four domains through a sequence of action processes. The combat network model of combat system of systems is described which reflects the fundamental structure of combat system of systems. The entity with three types of functions and five types of relations in the combat network is analyzed. The capability loop is defined and the evaluation index of combat network of combat system of systems is proposed based on the capability loop analysis. Finally, an example is used to illustrate the methodology.

The whole process of aluminum cycle consists of four stages: Production of alumina and primary aluminum, fabrication and manufacture of aluminum products, use of aluminum final products, and recycling of obsolete aluminum products. Aluminum cycle in China in 2011 was analyzed using alumium flow diagram, and the following indices were obtained: The resource self-support ratio of alumina, aluminum and the whole aluminum industry were 53.18%, 95.58% and 54.85%, respectively; self-produced and net imported aluminum scrap use ratios of the aluminum industry were 4.68% and 7.98%, respectively. Aluminum cycles and aluminum flow indices in China of the year 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2008–2010 were also analyzed. It was found that from 1990 to 2011, imported Al-containing resources increased and imported bauxite has increased significantly since 2005. Resources self-support ratio of aluminum industry changed gradually from fully self-support to depencdent on the imports of raw materials. Self-produced auminum scrap use ratio presented downtrend basically and the imported aluminum scrap use ratio was greater than self-produced aluminum scrap use ratio after 1995.

Richards model is a nonlinear curve with four parameters. Usually, the estimation of parameters in Richard model is complicated; and there is little literature on the gray prediction in Richards model is found. Facing these problems, this paper presents a algorithm consisting of the following steps: First, replacing approximately the original data with an arithmetic sequence to rapidly estimate the four parameters of Richards model; then, using them as the initial values to fit the original data by nonlinear least squares, the optimized parameters of Richards model are obtained. The algorithm along with “Kernel” and “IAGO” principles are used for the prediction of grey Richards model. The results from the experiments show that the above algorithms have good practicability and research value.

In recent years, it has been a hot pot to explore the effectiveness of basic medical insurance. However, due to different sample characteristics, time series length, models and so on used by authors, there exists big difference among relevant papers. In this paper, we try to apply meta regression analysis (MRA, a prevalent statistic literature review method) to explore its influence on family expenditure, and 90 sample observations were extracted from 49 important literatures. We find: 1) All the index construction, sample characteristic, model selection, control factors will influence the conclusions of medical insurance effectiveness; 2) The implement of basic medical insurance will increase household consumption other than the new rural cooperative systems; 3) The implement of basic health insurance has not really reduce family’s medical expense. Thus, we induce that adverse selection exists in China’s medical insurance.

This paper considers the reinsurance-investment problem for an insurer with dynamic income to balance the profit of insurance company and policy-holders. The insurer’s dynamic income is given by a net premium minus a dynamic reward budget item and the net premium is obtained according to the expected premium principle. Applying the stochastic control technique, a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation is established under stochastic interest rate model and the explicit solution is obtained by maximizing the insurer’s power utility of terminal wealth. In addition, the comparison with corresponding results under constant interest rate helps us to understand the role and influence of stochastic interest rates more in-depth.

This paper studies the group consensus problem for second-order multi-agent dynamic systems with time-varying delays, where the agents in a network may reach one more consistent values asymptotically. The fixed network topology is in case of being directed and weakly connected. Based on algebraic graph theory and Lyapunov function approach, we propose some sufficient conditions for reaching group consensus. All the results are presented in the form of linear matrix inequalities(LMIs). A simulation example is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical analysis.

The constant elasticity of substitution production function describes the relationship between production results and production factors in the technological production process. The common production factors include capital and labor. In order to comprehensively reflect the input-output relationship, this paper generalizes the model and adds factors including energy, consumption, and import and export. With respect to estimating the parameters of the model, the paper proposes a high-precision and high-speed nonlinear regression method. The constant elasticity of substitution production function model is mainly used to calculate the contribution rates of economic growth factors, and this paper proposes a scientific and reliable calculating method. The final section of the paper proposes an empirical analysis of the contribution rates of Chinese economic growth factors.

A new method is proposed to solve the multiple criteria decision making with interacting criteria, where the preference information on alternatives in a fuzzy relation given by the decision maker. On the basis of the decision maker’s preference information, two types of models — the least squares model, the linear programming model — are constructed to determine the capacities and then to select the most desirable alternative. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the validity and practicality of the proposed method.