Band 11, Heft 2

Within sports analytics, there is substantial interest in comprehensive statistics intended to capture overall player performance. In baseball, one such measure is wins above replacement (WAR), which aggregates the contributions of a player in each facet of the game: hitting, pitching, baserunning, and fielding. However, current versions of WAR depend upon proprietary data, ad hoc methodology, and opaque calculations. We propose a competitive aggregate measure, openWAR , that is based on public data, a methodology with greater rigor and transparency, and a principled standard for the nebulous concept of a “replacement” player. Finally, we use simulation-based techniques to provide interval estimates for our openWAR measure that are easily portable to other domains.

In this paper, we describe a procedure for constructing bicycle routes of minimal perceived exertion over a multi-day tour for cyclists of different levels of expertise. Given a cyclist’s origin, destination, selected points of interest she/he wants to visit, and a level of cycling expertise, this procedure generates a multi-day bicycle tour as a collection of successive daily paths that begin and end at overnight accommodations. The objective is to minimize the total perceived exertion. We demonstrate the implementation of this procedure on an example multi-day tour route in California and present the results of a survey designed to evaluate the daily paths constructed. Repeated measures analysis indicated that 108 of the 120 perceived exertion ratings of the routes generated by our method fit the reported perceived exertion levels of 175 avid cyclists who participated in an evaluation survey.

In this article an approach for the analysis and prediction of international soccer match results is proposed. It is based on a regularized Poisson regression model that includes various potentially influential covariates describing the national teams’ success in previous FIFA World Cups. Additionally, within the generalized linear model (GLM) framework, also differences of team-specific effects are incorporated. In order to achieve variable selection and shrinkage, we use tailored Lasso approaches. Based on preceding FIFA World Cups, two models for the prediction of the FIFA World Cup 2014 are fitted and investigated. Based on the model estimates, the FIFA World Cup 2014 is simulated repeatedly and winning probabilities are obtained for all teams. Both models favor the actual FIFA World Champion Germany.

Volleyball coaches are frequently forced to address the question of athlete service errors as a part of their overall service strategy. This is usually done in an ad hoc fashion with an arbitrarily selected maximum allowable service error fraction or maximum allowable service error-to-ace ratio. In this article, an analysis of service outcomes leads to a mathematical expression for the point-scoring fraction in terms of service ace fraction, service error fraction, and opponent modified sideout fraction. These parameters are assumed to be monotonic functions of an athlete or team’s serving aggressiveness and a linear model for the service error-to-ace ratio is used to close the point-scoring optimization problem. The model provides estimates of the optimal service error fraction for individual athletes based on their service ace fraction and the opponent modified sideout fraction against the server overall and also when restricted to only serves that led to perfect passes. Case studies of the Bay to Bay 17 Black Boys’ USAV Juniors team and the Brigham Young University Men’s NCAA Division I team are used to demonstrate the application of the model and standard errors for the predicted optimal service error fractions are calculated with bootstrap resampling.