Volume 8, Issue 2

Puerto Rico recently became the largest bankruptcy case in the history of the U.S. municipal bond market. This debt crisis has not been the subject of significant scrutiny in the economic literature, though many researchers focus on case studies, such as Greece and Argentina, to analyze a country’s indebtedness. The underlying economic factors that influence unsustainable debt in upper middle-income countries are generally understudied. We attempted to contribute to filling these gaps in the related literature. Using econometric analysis, we found that Puerto Rico’s government indebtedness is, to a large extent, connected to a sharp decrease in manufacturing employment (i.e. deindustrialization) suffered by this economy, and weak evidence that it was caused by an excessive government payroll or overgenerous federal programs. In light of our empirical results, we discussed how the consequences of deindustrialization ultimately led to increase government borrowing.

This paper makes a contribution to the literature on the driving forces of international migration. In contrast to the existing literature we consider the effect of socioeconomic variables (population dynamics, education and health, and openness) on migration flows. Especially the effects of openness of a society have not received much attention in the scientific debate.We use a panel data set of bilateral migration flows between 16 destination and 198 origin countries over the time span from 1980 to 2015. Most importantly, we find that our socioeconomic variables significantly affect the migration decision. Including socioeconomic variables does affect the size of the effects of the commonly used variables in the literature.Further, we find robust evidence that the socioeconomic variables at hand have non-linear effects on migration. For example, we find that the effect of human capital on migration follows an inverted U-shaped pattern.

Migrant networks are an important catalyst for promoting FDI flows between countries. Migrants also send increasingly large remittances to their home countries. This paper considers how these two capital flows are related, specifically examining how remittance flows respond to the amount of FDI inflows to a country. Using a panel of 118 countries over 1980–2010, we estimate a random effects model and find a positive and significant effect of FDI flows on remittances, while controlling for other standard determinants of remittance flows. We account for the potential endogeneity of FDI to remittances by utilizing a two-stage Instrumental Variables approach. These findings suggest that FDI complements remittances, rather than crowding out emigrant investment to the home countries. We find the relationship is strongest for low income countries, highlighting the importance of remittances as a source of investment capital in these countries.

The dominant convention in the measurement of inequality and poverty is to employ scale-invariant and replication-invariant measures, that is, measures that are thoroughgoingly relative. This is a routine feature of both the theoretical and applied literature in the area, despite weighty arguments that have been advanced by certain practitioners in favor of centrist measures which avoid the “extreme” values of both income-relative and income-absolute measures. The present paper extends these arguments in favor of measures which are both income-centrist and population centrist. A comprehensively centrist Gini coefficient of inequality is proposed, and likewise a comprehensively centrist class of poverty measures which are counterparts of the well-known Foster-Greer Thorbecke class of relative poverty measures. It is suggested that our diagnosis of the problems of inequality and poverty is likely to be a profoundly variable function of the precise types of inequality and poverty measures we employ in order to assess the magnitudes and trends of the phenomenon.

This paper provides a tractable framework to assess how the structure of debt instruments – specifically by currency denomination and indexation to GDP – can raise the debt limit of a sovereign. By calibrating the model to different country fundamentals, it is clear that there is no 'one-size-fits-all' approach to optimal instrument design. For instance, low income countries may find benefit in issuing local currency debt; while in advanced economies, debt tolerance can be substantially enhanced through issuing GDP-linked bonds. By looking at the marginal impact of these instruments, the paper also provides insight into the optimal portfolio composition.