Volume 236, Issue 4 -

Building on arguments to political incomes, career concerns and elitist networks, this study assumes that an increasing percentage of highly incentivized former executive board members within the German Federal Government (1957–2012) will decrease the top earners’ average income tax rate during the subsequent year. Conversely, the percentage of lower incentivized former supervisory board members is assumed to increase the top earners’ average income tax rate. Both effects are assumed to be enforced if the ruling parties have strong support in the German Bundestag. The empirical results significantly confirm the unconditional effect for former executive board members and the conditional effect for former supervisory board members. Corresponding to sociological findings (see Hartmann 2002, Der Mythos von den Leistungseliten. Frankfurt a.M., Campus) and building on Barro’s (1973, The Control of Politicians: An Economic Model. Public Choice 14(1): 19–42) approach to the selfish maximization of political income and arguments regarding career concerns from principal agent theory (see, e. g. Fama 1980, Agency Problems and the Theory of the Firm. Journal of Political Economy 88, 288–307), this study assumes a strong incentive for former executive board members in the German Federal Government (1957–2012) to maximize their political income by lowering the top earners’ average income tax rate (1958–2013) due to their social elitist homogeneity and career concerns in terms of future job opportunities in business corporations. Conversely, former supervisory board members are assumed to increase the top earners’ average income tax rate due to their differing social backgrounds. Despite possible career concerns, they are assumed to increase the top earners’ average income tax rate in order not to lose their previously gained ideological credibility. Both effects are assumed to be enforced if the ruling parties have more than or equal to 55 % of seats in the German Bundestag. By running OLS and Tobit regressions, the empirical results confirm an unconditional decreasing effect of a higher percentage of previous executive board members and a conditional increasing effect of a higher percentage of previous supervisory board members on the top earners’ average income tax rate.

This paper proposes a discrete-time hazard regression approach based on the relation between hazard rate models and excess over threshold models, which are frequently encountered in extreme value modelling. The proposed duration model employs a flexible link function and incorporates the grouped-duration analogue of the well-known Cox proportional hazards model and the proportional odds model as special cases. The theoretical setup of the model is motivated, and simulation results are reported, suggesting that the model proposed performs well. The simulation results and an empirical analysis of US import durations also show that the choice of link function in discrete hazard models has important implications for the estimation results, and that severe biases in the results can be avoided when using a flexible link function.

Is academic research anticipating economic shake-ups or merely reflecting the past? Exploiting the corpus of articles published in the Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik) for the years 1949 to 2010, this pilot study proposes a quantitative framework for addressing these questions. The framework comprises two steps. First, methods from computational linguistics are used to identify relevant topics and their relative importance over time. In particular, Latent Dirichlet Analysis is applied to the corpus after some preparatory work. Second, for some of the topics which are closely related to specific economic indicators, the developments of topic weights and indicator values are confronted in dynamic regression and VAR models. The results indicate that for some topics of interest, the discourse in the journal leads developments in the real economy, while for other topics it is the other way round.

The article provides an insight into the conceptual and methodological framework as well as the research data infrastructure of the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS). The NEPS study has been set up to build a profound empirical basis for the description and analysis of educational processes and competence development across the life span. Its large-scale database consists of longitudinal information from more than 60,000 target respondents – distributed over six different starting cohorts ranging from newborns to adults – and from relevant context persons such as parents or teachers. The complex multicohort sequence design schedules annual or even semiannual survey waves including a broad spectrum of competence assessments. All data are thoroughly prepared, documented, and disseminated free of charge in the form of regularly expanded Scientific Use Files. In addition to some background information about NEPS in general, this paper primarily focuses on issues of data collection, data structure, data availability, and the requirements for different types of data access. The number of more than 1,000 data users involved in over 700 research projects so far serves to highlight the potential of NEPS as a unique research data infrastructure for educational research and beyond.